The hottest COVID-19 Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Health Politics Topics

Rationing rapid tests

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 03 Jan 22
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Rapid tests Isolation
  1. Rapid tests are important for managing the risk of infecting others, especially in situations where isolation decisions need to be made.
  2. Concentrating repeated tests in one person can be a strategy for rationing tests, especially in households where everyone is likely to be infected if one person tests positive.
  3. Consider who in your household comes into contact with vulnerable individuals or is the most likely to bring COVID into the house when deciding on whom to test.

Insanity and weirdness

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 31 Dec 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Public Health Pandemic Management Vaccination Epidemiology COVID-19
  1. The global pandemic has brought unexpected challenges and changes in management approach, shifting towards individual risk management, which raises concerns about lack of tools to help people self-manage effectively.
  2. The Omicron variant of COVID-19 has unique characteristics that make it highly infectious but less severe, potentially leading to complacency and overlooking the risks of continued virus circulation and possible mutations.
  3. There is a risk of complacency and potential resurgence of the pandemic if steps are not taken to prepare for scenarios where the virus mutates to become more infectious and virulent, highlighting the importance of staying vigilant and prepared for the future.

The Rapid Test Epiphany

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 21 Dec 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Public Health COVID-19 Pandemic Management Rapid tests
  1. Public health officials are now embracing the use of rapid tests for Covid-19, marking a significant shift in attitude after over 20 months of resistance.
  2. Rapid testing offers individuals the ability to know their Covid status and manage their risk when meeting in groups or with vulnerable individuals.
  3. Rapid testing, while helpful, may not be enough to fully prevent the spread of the Omicron variant and should be paired with other measures like social distancing and masking.

Nu or COVID-21?

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 26 Nov 21
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Vaccines Epidemiology
  1. The concern is about a new strain, B.1.1.529, and its impact compared to existing variants of COVID-19 - the key question being whether it is new enough to cause significant issues.
  2. The worrying factor includes the high mutation rate in the spike protein of B.1.1.529, the uncertainty about its classification as a new variant or a new disease, and the potential origin from animal populations.
  3. The positive aspects involve B.1.1.529 being detectable by existing tests, limited data showing it spreading in a population with a low vaccination rate, and the opportunity for quicker monitoring of cases due to specific patterns in diagnostic tests.

NSW vs Ontario: Another Month

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 16 Oct 21
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Vaccination Lockdowns Immunity
  1. NSW and Ontario were used as comparison cases for the Delta variant, with NSW passing 80% of its 16+ population fully vaccinated and starting to ease restrictions.
  2. In Ontario, despite concerns of an outbreak when kids returned to school, the outbreak was relatively stunted compared to NSW, showcasing the value of vaccination over lockdowns.
  3. Winter will be the true test of resilience for vaccinations in Ontario, as well as dealing with waning immunity that will hit Ontario sooner than NSW.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

NSW vs Ontario: A month later

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 15 Sep 21
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Vaccines Public Health Policy
  1. The comparison between New South Wales and Ontario shows a clear divergence in Delta experiences, highlighting the effectiveness of vaccines.
  2. Ontario faces challenges with schools reopening and colder weather ahead, which might test vaccine resistance.
  3. NSW seems to have shifted away from the Covid-Zero strategy, leading to interesting political and economic dynamics within Australia.

Supply of Rapid Tests

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 21 Aug 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Public Health COVID-19 Vaccination Testing Supply Chain
  1. Abbott destroyed millions of rapid test products due to a mistaken prediction of decreased demand, leading to supply shortages when demand surged again.
  2. Public health recommendations, like CDC's guidance on testing, heavily influence the demand for rapid tests.
  3. Vaccine mandates and the requirement for negative tests are increasing the demand for testing, highlighting the importance for governments to act promptly to ensure sufficient supply.

A Tale of Two Regions

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 15 Aug 21
🌍 World Politics COVID-19 Lockdowns Vaccinations
  1. NSW and Ontario have similar Covid-19 infection rates, but experience different outcomes - NSW has higher infection rates and more hospitalizations despite being in lockdown.
  2. Vaccination rates play a crucial role in controlling Covid-19 - higher vaccination rates in Ontario contribute to its relative openness compared to NSW.
  3. Weather differences between regions may impact Covid-19 spread - with Ontario in summer and NSW in winter, it's suggested that infections may be weather-related.

It's worse (maybe)

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 30 Jul 21
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Vaccination Pandemic Management Health data
  1. The Delta variant of Covid-19 is concerning as it shows high viral load in both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, longer infectious period, and a high R0 value.
  2. Superspreading events indoors may remain risky, leading to continued need to avoid crowded indoor spaces. Entry requirements might shift to requiring negative tests along with vaccinations.
  3. There is a greater importance placed on rapid antigen testing in various settings due to the spread of the virus by vaccinated individuals, emphasizing the need for more accessible and widespread testing.

Rapid screening in schools

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 29 Jul 21
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Schools Rapid Testing Vaccination Prevention
  1. Regular rapid antigen testing in schools can help prevent disruptions and keep schools open by catching infectious cases
  2. Using daily testing in schools can lead to significantly fewer school days lost and staff absences due to Covid-19 compared to mandatory isolation measures
  3. Denmark recommends regular testing for school children as a measure to control the spread of Covid-19

Living with the virus

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 22 Jul 21
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Pandemic Management Vaccination Leadership
  1. Living with the virus requires leadership to navigate uncertainties and make decisions for the well-being of all.
  2. Regular screening and vaccination are crucial in managing risks associated with the virus, especially in shared spaces like gyms and universities.
  3. Adapting to living with Covid-19 involves shifting mindset from complete avoidance to understanding and managing risks, requiring a balance between precautions and returning to normalcy.

Variance

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 26 Jun 21
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Vaccination Economic Impact Mental health Preventive measures
  1. Living with Covid as endemic means acknowledging variance in outbreaks and economic disruption.
  2. Continued outbreaks will disrupt plans and economic activity, leading to supply constraints and potential inflation in the near future.
  3. Investing in systems like rapid screening can help minimize disruptions, but adoption must happen before serious outbreaks occur.

B.1.617.2

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 01 Jun 21
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Vaccination Transmission
  1. Vaccination rates in Canada are high and cases are decreasing, but the B.1.617.2 variant is a cause for concern due to its increased transmissibility.
  2. New variants of COVID-19 may have advantages over older variants based on environmental conditions and spread through superspreading events.
  3. The uncertainty surrounding the B.1.617.2 variant and its potential for causing outbreaks emphasizes the need for caution and monitoring before widespread reopening.

Michigan's Big Vaccine Game

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 30 Apr 21
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy COVID-19 Government Incentives Vaccination
  1. Michigan's re-opening plan tying restrictions to vaccine thresholds is a sensible approach that shifts vaccine hesitancy from individual to societal responsibility.
  2. Creating a team effort by rewarding everyone involved when individual milestones are met can be an effective motivator, as seen in the comparison to toilet training children.
  3. The Michigan plan of gradually lifting restrictions at specific vaccination thresholds with built-in measures to prevent gaming could serve as a successful template for other regions.

Taking variants seriously

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 26 Apr 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Variants COVID-19 Vaccines Testing Information
  1. Variants of the virus have higher reproduction numbers and spread more effectively in certain environments, posing a significant threat.
  2. Considering variants as new viruses could prompt more focused and proactive measures like containment and targeted testing and vaccination.
  3. Efforts to combat new variants require heightened focus on genomic testing, international collaboration, and strategic allocation of resources to areas where variants are emerging.

The coming vaccine wall in Ontario

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 19 Apr 21
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Vaccination Public Health Immunity Prevention
  1. Increasing vaccine supply is crucial to maintain vaccination rates and prevent the pandemic from resurging when needed.
  2. Extending the length between vaccine doses beyond 16 weeks presents uncertainties, and experts are still unsure of the outcomes.
  3. Monitoring the effectiveness of first doses over time and preparing for potential booster shots post-second dose are crucial for informed decision-making before July.

Ontario, a turn at being the worst

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 17 Apr 21
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Workplace Safety Preventative measures Public Health Healthcare policy
  1. Ontario is currently facing a surge in COVID-19 cases driven by new variants, particularly the B.1.1.7 or UK variant.
  2. The outbreak is primarily originating in workplaces that remain open, such as manufacturing factories and distribution centers, leading to high rates of infection.
  3. A proposed solution to counter the surge in cases is to mandate the use of N95 or better masks in all currently open workplaces in Ontario with more than 20-30 employees.

Let's check in on Slovakia

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 13 Apr 21
🌍 World Politics COVID-19 Testing Isolation Government
  1. Slovakia conducted mass testing twice on its population in a short period and implemented continuous weekly testing to bring down COVID-19 cases. They made testing mandatory for certain activities and made isolation voluntary for family members with a positive case.
  2. Slovakia's approach relied heavily on regular testing and isolation of cases and household members, showing significant success in managing outbreaks and decreasing case numbers.
  3. The success of Slovakia's testing strategy was facilitated by its small size, efficient decision-making process, and strong community adherence to regulations. A small group of epidemiologists made decisions quickly, and the country swiftly mobilized resources for mass testing.

What to make of AstraZeneca?

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 09 Apr 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Vaccination COVID-19 Risk Assessment Public Health Vaccine Hesitancy
  1. AstraZeneca has been linked to rare blood clot issues, particularly in younger individuals, presenting a challenge in vaccine distribution and risk assessment.
  2. The distribution of AstraZeneca vaccine is crucial due to its wide availability, but balancing the risk of blood clots against the benefits of vaccination is a complex task.
  3. Messaging around AstraZeneca vaccination plays a significant role in managing vaccine hesitancy and public perception, highlighting the need for a balanced approach and continual adjustment based on new information.

A rapid screening Regime is just as sensitive as PCR testing

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 26 Mar 21
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Testing Screening
  1. A new study shows that rapid antigen tests can be just as effective as PCR tests at identifying infected individuals if used at least twice a week.
  2. PCR tests have higher sensitivity than rapid antigen tests, but with frequent testing, the differences become insignificant.
  3. Frequent rapid antigen screenings (twice a week) can be more effective and cost-efficient compared to weekly PCR tests.

Running out of things to say

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 19 Mar 21
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Economics Data Collection Testing Vaccines
  1. The author of the newsletter is taking a break due to running out of things to say after consistent writing for a year, but shares interesting articles from other sources.
  2. The shared articles cover various topics related to Covid-19 such as the importance of data, testing failures, new testing methods like rapid screens, and the need for continued testing even with vaccines available.
  3. The post also links to a new book called 'Economics in One Virus' by Ryan Borne that takes an economic perspective on situations arising from the pandemic.

There is no such thing as no risk

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 24 Feb 21
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Precautions Testing Immunity Infection
  1. There is no such thing as a perfectly safe event - caution is always required, and risks are unavoidable.
  2. Even with considerable precautions taken, events can still be risky - the event at issue saw 2.5% of attendees infected.
  3. Testing for COVID-19 is crucial, but flaws in testing protocols can lead to false negatives, impacting event safety measures.

The weakest link

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 08 Feb 21
🏥 Health Politics Policy COVID-19 Vaccines Prevention Economics
  1. Maintaining a Covid-Zero policy brings challenges due to the weakest link, like quarantine workers in hotels.
  2. Regular rapid testing and vaccinations for quarantine workers are crucial to prevent Covid-19 spread and lockdowns.
  3. Investing in safety measures for the weakest link, such as daily screenings and prioritized vaccinations, can mitigate costly leakages and lockdowns.

Science and the Policy Response

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 13 Jan 21
🔬 Science Research Policy COVID-19 Peer Review Institutions
  1. Science heavily influenced policy-making during the Covid-19 pandemic, tracking the number of cases and playing a significant role in the global response.
  2. Recent research on Covid-19 had a substantial impact on policy-making and was highly cited by both policy-makers and other scientists.
  3. International governmental organizations like the World Health Organization (WHO) played a key role in connecting policy to science, producing more impactful documents compared to national governments or think tanks.

The Liverpool Experiment

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 08 Jan 21
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Rapid tests Public Health Epidemiology
  1. A large-scale Covid-19 testing experiment was conducted in Liverpool using a combination of PCR and rapid antigen tests, impacting almost 500,000 people.
  2. Confirmatory PCR tests for positive rapid test results had poor uptake, highlighting challenges in ensuring follow-up testing.
  3. The quality of rapid tests varied, emphasizing the importance of recording and evaluating batch and test type information to identify production issues.

Vaccine doses ... again

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 04 Jan 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Vaccines COVID-19 Public Health Epidemiology Immunity
  1. There is a debate about the effectiveness of administering two vaccine doses versus one, with some evidence showing that a single dose could be adequate in certain situations.
  2. The timing of vaccine doses is crucial, with considerations on how to maximize the number of people vaccinated and the potential risks of delaying the second dose.
  3. Mathematical calculations play a role in determining the efficacy of first doses first strategy, but there are complexities involved, including capacity, prevalence of the virus, and the role of vaccines in reducing spread.

Pre-emptive warnings to take care

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 02 Nov 20
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Prevention Innovation Data Collection Testing
  1. NOVID app offers a different approach to COVID-19 exposure tracking by focusing on self-protection rather than just protecting others.
  2. The app allows users to prepare for potential exposure by managing their contact budget and taking preventive measures.
  3. NOVID can serve as a valuable early warning system for communities like schools or workplaces to take extra precautions and drive further information through rapid testing.

We can do better on pre-risk assessment

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 23 Oct 20
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Information Management Risk Assessment Data Collection
  1. Pre-risk assessment is crucial for better allocation of Covid-19 tests. Higher pre-risk means test results carry more weight.
  2. CDC's protocol for point-of-care tests at nursing homes considers pre-risk, but lacks specific numerical data. More granular information would enhance testing protocols.
  3. Contact tracing apps could be leveraged to assess pre-risk levels, aiding in more accurate test allocation without compromising privacy.

What have we learned about the coronavirus?

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 21 Sep 20
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Policy Data Analysis Epidemiology Public Health
  1. The growth rate of daily deaths from COVID-19 falls rapidly within 30 days post reaching 25 cumulative deaths, a pattern observed universally.
  2. After the initial decline, the growth rate of daily deaths hovers around zero or slightly below, suggesting a steady rate of new deaths each day.
  3. Variability in growth rates of deaths among regions decreases after the initial epidemic period, stabilizing around zero, indicating similar experiences across regions.

Things left lying around

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 11 Sep 20
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Masks Movies
  1. Testing wastewater from dorms can be an effective way to manage the spread of viruses on college campuses.
  2. Health Canada is now considering approving at-home COVID-19 tests, showing a willingness to adapt during the pandemic.
  3. The UK subsidizing restaurant meals results in increased interest, showing that incentives like these can have a positive impact on the economy.

How often should you test?

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 09 Sep 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Wellness COVID-19 Economics Rapid Testing
  1. Frequent and rapid testing plays a key role in limiting the spread of viruses like COVID-19.
  2. The frequency of testing and the accuracy of the tests are crucial in determining how effectively infectious individuals can be isolated.
  3. Testing every two to three days with a moderate error rate can be more effective than testing less frequently with higher accuracy.

What if it’s worse?

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 12 Apr 20
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Immunity Testing Vaccine Pandemic
  1. Immunity from COVID-19 is a critical assumption in policy discussions, but what if this assumption is wrong? If immunity is not guaranteed, the virus may never go away.
  2. Investing in extensive testing, especially HAVE tests, can still be valuable even if immunity or a vaccine is not a solution. Testing can help contain the spread of the virus and eventually eradicate it.
  3. The possibility of not achieving permanent immunity emphasizes the need for testing as a hedge against uncertainty. Testing, regardless of immunity status, plays a crucial role in managing the pandemic.

Smell Test Now

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 01 Apr 20
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19
  1. Around March 20, COVID-19 patients reported a loss of smell, which sparked news reports and discussions about using this symptom for screening.
  2. Google search trends for 'can't smell' and 'sense of smell' suggested a possible correlation with news reports rather than actual symptoms, warranting more detailed data analysis.
  3. Monitoring search trends for 'Anosmia' and 'Ageusia' across different countries could provide insights into how news and localized outbreaks influence public awareness of COVID-19 symptoms.

Disarm BA.5 With Immunity and Agency

Are You Okay? • 0 implied HN points • 18 Jul 22
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Vaccines Immunity Healthcare Wellness
  1. During the COVID-19 pandemic, it's important to acknowledge that it's okay to not be okay and to give yourself permission to feel human emotions.
  2. The BA.5 variant is more contagious than previous Omicron subvariants, but not necessarily causing more severe disease. Vaccines still provide good protection against serious outcomes.
  3. To protect against BA.5 and future variants, focus on basic health measures, vaccination, boosters if recommended, and consider options like nasal vaccines and monoclonal antibodies.