The hottest Financial forecasting Substack posts right now

Selling Bitcoin soon after a major news event might be smart, as prices often peak at these moments. It's a common strategy to buy when news is expected and sell when it's delivered.
Consider converting your Bitcoin into dollars or stablecoins if you anticipate a price drop. That's a way to secure your profits.
Keep an eye on market updates and predictions, as they can help inform your trading decisions. Staying informed is crucial in the fast-moving crypto space.

To understand VC investment decisions, consider the Venture Capital Method, where earnings and market support determine the firm's future value.
Investors aim for successful exits with specific returns and use metrics like ROI and IRR to evaluate startup potential.
Negotiations between VC firms and founders often involve ownership percentages based on future valuations and return expectations.

The stock market, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, has reached new all-time highs, marking significant growth since April. It's surprising how quickly things have improved.
Many expected a tougher market, but predictions like identifying a bottom at the S&P 500’s 4,835 mark turned out to be correct. This shows how important it is to trust analysis.
History suggests that if the S&P 500 performs well in May and June, it tends to continue rising through the rest of the year. July has been particularly strong over the last decade.

Venture capital firms use various methods to calculate startup valuations, including the VC Valuation method.
The VC Valuation method involves six steps to determine the value of a startup, such as financial forecasting and calculating the ownership stake of the VC firm.
Understanding the VC Valuation method can help founders comprehend how VC firms arrive at startup valuations.

Philo updates on Farfetch and Wayfair along with ASOS.
Netflix stock is up 120% since it was written about.
Farfetch stock has seen an 83% decrease and faces challenges due to various market conditions.

Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

Watch the months-of-supply to help predict housing prices. It can show us if prices might go up or down.
Currently, both home inventory and sales are lower than they were before the pandemic.
The months-of-supply is higher than in 2019, which could lead to changes in the housing market soon.

Being bullish and bearish at different times is normal in investing.
Past events can influence current market sentiments and predictions.
The idea of a 'soft landing' in the market may not be realistic with current economic conditions.

A model of everything predicts final and intermediate goals of a company, is causal, and covers significant inputs.
Foundational choices in building a model of everything include deciding the scope, complexity of relationships, and optimization strategy.
Financial forecasting often involves models of everything, built in spreadsheets, but may not work well for machine learning models.

Investing should focus more on data and numbers rather than just gut feelings or stories from analysts. Just like in baseball, using hard data can lead to better investment choices.
Data is useful, but it’s important to understand that all numbers are estimates. This means they can have errors and should be used carefully.
To make good investment decisions, combine data analysis with sensible stories. Numbers are a starting point, but having a narrative helps make better choices.