Astral Codex Ten • 15623 implied HN points • 03 Mar 26
- The Pentagon’s “supply chain risk” label briefly knocked Anthropic’s predicted value but markets quickly rebounded, implying legal challenges, big-cloud partnerships, and publicity make the company unlikely to be crippled.
- Republican efforts to tighten voting rules and a rumored executive order raise real disruption risks for the midterms, but courts and prediction markets expect limited mass disenfranchisement and still tilt toward Democratic gains in Congress.
- Prediction markets are shifting toward hedging and financial products, with crypto-based platforms like MNX targeting AI and real-world risk hedges, and markets are already being used to price geopolitical events like the Iran conflict.