The hottest Housing supply Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

December 2025 Residential Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 189 implied HN points • 20 Feb 26
💼 Business Housing supply
  1. Recent Census estimates show residential construction is recovering very slowly, characterized as a "slow, boring" recovery. The recovery is modest rather than a strong rebound.
  2. A persistent housing supply shortage is the dominant factor for near-term construction trends and matters more than mortgage rates. That shortage largely determines how much new building occurs even as interest rates move.
  3. Understanding the current situation requires a long view of about thirty years of housing activity; the analysis connects past policies and market shifts to today’s supply constraints. The narrative explains how historical trends helped create the present housing dynamics.

“We Are Not as Wealthy as We Thought We Were”: Part 3

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 421 implied HN points • 26 Dec 25
💼 Business Housing supply
  1. Filtering describes how homes change hands over time, and while houses used to "filter down" to lower-income buyers, since about 2008 many places have seen upward filtering where higher-income families replace lower-income ones and pay more for land rather than better homes.
  2. Upward filtering forces people into hard compromises — renters face steadily rising rents and many families are pushed to move away from schools, jobs, and social networks to avoid being priced out.
  3. The shift toward upward filtering is tied to chronic housing undersupply and restrictive permitting, so much of the apparent rise in household wealth is actually land-value gains captured by owners, not broader improvements in people's living standards.

Random Thoughts on Mortgages, Household Finances, and Supply Conditions

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 29 Jan 26
💰 Finance Housing supply
  1. Low mortgage rates and wider mortgage access historically did not drive overall inflation; when mortgage access tightened after 2007 homeownership fell and rent inflation sped up.
  2. The country is in a housing shortage, and adding multi-family or even high-end units reduces pressure on low-tier rents through filtering and sales chains, so building more supply (including luxury) helps the worst-off.
  3. Household sizes stopped shrinking decades ago and the recent rise in adults per household reflects people doubling up because of the housing crisis, so claims that homes are bigger and households smaller are outdated and misleading.

Why homes are ‘filtering’ up the market from the poor to wealthier buyers

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 168 implied HN points • 15 Dec 25
💼 Business Housing supply
  1. Average statistics hide big differences: the typical American family looks better off on paper, but many households feel worse and a substantial share have declined year after year.
  2. With too few new homes being built, existing houses are effectively ‘filtering’ up the market from poorer to wealthier buyers, which squeezes lower-income families out of housing options.
  3. The result is a unique, musical‑chairs problem where families compete for a fixed housing stock, and the only durable fix is increasing the supply of new housing so homes can better match families’ needs.

ResiDay 2025

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 14 Nov 25
💼 Business Housing supply
  1. Home prices naturally stay stable unless there's a major supply crisis. In supply-constrained markets, like big cities, families end up paying more to avoid moving away.
  2. Cities facing housing shortages have been made worse by things like a lending clampdown and recent pandemic supply issues. This has raised rents everywhere, especially in poorer neighborhoods.
  3. The current housing situation might lead to a never-ending construction boom, which could help lower prices over time. However, this will create both opportunities and challenges for investors.
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Green Shoots

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 189 implied HN points • 29 Jun 25
💰 Finance Housing supply
  1. Some cities are starting to show improvement in housing, like Austin, Nashville, and Bozeman. These places are seeing good building activity and new homes.
  2. Housing prices in Austin are beginning to stabilize, which may help reduce rental costs as new homes become available. This trend is also seen to some extent in Nashville and Bozeman.
  3. There have been challenges in housing construction since COVID, but cities that allow more building will benefit from new homes. It's a sign that there might be positive changes coming in the housing market.

Homeownership is down more than you thought.

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 252 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
💰 Finance Housing supply
  1. Homeownership rates can be misleading if not adjusted for changes in household formation and age demographics.
  2. The reported increase in homeownership rates may be due to an aging population rather than a true rise in homeownership.
  3. The shift towards renting and living with roommates may continue unless changes are made in housing supply and mortgage regulations.

New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
💰 Finance Housing supply
  1. New home sales dropped to an annual rate of 657,000 in January, marking a decline from previous months. This shows a slowdown in the housing market compared to last year.
  2. The average price of new homes has decreased by 5.8% from its highest point due to changes in what types of homes are selling.
  3. There is a high inventory of homes available, with a supply of 9 months, which is more than the usual range of 4 to 6 months. This indicates more choices for buyers but also suggests a slower market.

New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 27 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing supply
  1. New home sales in December 2024 hit 698,000, which is a good increase from the previous months. This suggests the housing market is showing some positive movement.
  2. The median price of new homes has dropped by 7.2% from its peak. This could make new homes more affordable for buyers.
  3. There are currently about 8.5 months of new home supply available, which is higher than the normal range. This means there are lots of homes for buyers to choose from.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 07 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing supply
  1. Asking rents are pretty stable, with a slight year-over-year drop of 0.6%. This means many people are paying about the same for their apartments as they did last year.
  2. There's a lot more new apartments being built, leading to a higher vacancy rate. This increase in supply is putting pressure on rents and keeps them from rising significantly.
  3. Single-family home rents grew by 1.7% last year but are showing signs of slowing down. Overall, rent growth is not as high as it used to be, indicating a cooling market.

Inflation is Over

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 16 Mar 23
💰 Finance Housing supply
  1. Inflation may have ended, as data shows a decline in prices over the past months.
  2. Removing the shelter component from inflation measurements may lead to a more accurate CPI.
  3. Addressing the housing supply issue could resolve misconceptions around monetary policy and inflation.

The consumption basket we call "housing"

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 28 Sep 23
💼 Business Housing supply
  1. In expensive cities, people oppose public amenities because they can lead to displacement when bundled with scarce housing.
  2. A city's housing demand can be categorized into shelter, neighborhood amenities, metropolitan area scarcity, and endowments.
  3. Metro area scarcity causes prices to rise uniformly across neighborhoods, impacting affordability for households with lower incomes.

New Home Sales at 661,000 Annual Rate in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 26 Feb 24
💰 Finance Housing supply
  1. In January 2024, new home sales were reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 661,000, showing a positive trend compared to the previous year.
  2. The median new home price has dropped by 15% from its peak, indicating potential shifts in the real estate market.
  3. Inventory levels for new homes show variations, with completed homes for sale at a level close to the norm, while homes under construction are high but below previous peak levels.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing supply
  1. Asking rents have mostly stayed the same year over year, with a slight decrease of about 0.7%. This means that renting is a bit cheaper now than it was last year.
  2. There are more rental apartments available now, which has led to a higher vacancy rate of 6.8%. This increase in supply is likely to keep rents from rising quickly.
  3. Single-family home rents did see a small increase of 2.4% year over year, but this is the slowest growth seen in some time. It suggests that rent prices in general are stabilizing.