The hottest Market Data Substack posts right now

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New Home Sales Decline Sharply to 587,000 Annual Rate in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 239 implied HN points • 19 Mar 26
💰 Finance Market Data
  1. New home sales fell sharply to a 587,000 annual rate in January, down 17.6% from December and 11.3% from a year earlier, with recent months revised lower.
  2. Housing inventory and months' supply have risen — supply is about 9.7 months now, well above the 4–6 month normal range, with completed homes and 'not started' units notably elevated.
  3. The median new home price is about 13% below its peak, largely because the mix of homes sold has shifted toward lower-priced or different types of units.

A few comments on the Weak Start for 2026 Existing Home Sales

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 282 implied HN points • 17 Mar 26
💼 Business Market Data
  1. The existing-home market is off to a weak start in 2026, with year-to-date sales down and pending home sales showing a small year-over-year decline, so there’s no clear pickup yet.
  2. The MBA purchase index has climbed from its lows but is still about 29% below the 2017–2019 average, which matches sales being roughly 25% below that period and implies continued weak activity.
  3. The purchase index can be misleading because shifts in which lenders are counted or fewer cash buyers can raise the index without more actual sales, so it should be interpreted with caution.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 258 implied HN points • 09 Mar 26
💰 Finance Market Data
  1. February existing-home sales look to be down slightly year-over-year based on early market data.
  2. Active inventory is higher than a year ago—Altos shows about a 6.9% rise for single-family homes and reporting markets show roughly a 10% increase—but levels are still low within the year and a seasonal pickup is expected.
  3. New listings have ticked up modestly (around 1.8% YoY) while closed sales in early-reporting markets fell about 1.1% YoY, and sales remain well below February 2019 levels.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 229 implied HN points • 06 Mar 26
💰 Finance Market Data
  1. Existing home sales look to be flat or slightly down year‑over‑year, with early-reporting markets showing about a 2.9% drop and sales well below February 2019 levels.
  2. New listings and active inventory are rising — new listings were up roughly 5.5% year‑over‑year and active inventory climbed about 12%, so more supply is coming onto the market.
  3. Local conditions vary: Las Vegas is seeing slower sales, lower prices and rising inventory, while the Pacific Northwest has transactions down around 3% and listings up about 28% even as mortgage rates sit near 6.1%.

1.600 million Total Housing Completions in 2025 including Manufactured Homes

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 253 implied HN points • 23 Feb 26
💰 Finance Market Data
  1. Total housing completions in 2025 fell to about 1.60 million (1.498 million excluding manufactured homes), down roughly 7.5–7.9% year‑over‑year.
  2. Multifamily completions declined sharply in 2025 (5+ unit completions down about 20% from 2023) after a 2024 surge, but they still ranked as the second highest level since 1987.
  3. Single‑family completions dipped slightly to about 1.01 million in 2025, while active single‑family inventory has risen (up 1.4% week‑over‑week and roughly 9.4% year‑over‑year) with a larger spring inventory pickup expected.
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New Home Sales at 745,000 Annual Rate in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 229 implied HN points • 20 Feb 26
💼 Business Market Data
  1. New home sales ran at a 745,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate in December, and about 679,000 new homes were sold in 2025, a slight decline from 2024.
  2. Inventory is elevated with 7.6 months of supply overall; completed homes are near multi-year highs and homes not started are at an all-time high.
  3. The median new home price is about 10% below its peak mainly due to a change in the mix of homes sold, and initial sales estimates are uncertain and likely to be revised down.

Perplexity Finance 101: The Complete Guide to AI-Powered Portfolio Tracking, Hidden Features & 80+ Power Prompts

The Product Channel By Sid Saladi • 13 implied HN points • 19 Mar 26
💰 Finance Market Data
  1. Perplexity Finance is an AI-powered financial research terminal that gives cited, real-time answers and can even connect to your brokerage to analyze your actual portfolio.
  2. It consolidates market dashboards, heatmaps, earnings transcripts, SEC filings, portfolio analytics, crypto feeds, and alerts into one place so you can do deep research without hopping between tabs.
  3. The free tier is very capable for casual investors, Pro (about $20/month) is great value for serious research, and Max is aimed at power users as the product scales and attracts heavy investment.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 86 implied HN points • 02 Mar 26
💼 Business Market Data
  1. Existing home sales remain weak — about 3.9 million SAAR and roughly 27% below pre‑pandemic levels, and sales have been unusually low for more than three years.
  2. Housing inventory is rising year‑over‑year and months‑of‑supply are nearing pre‑pandemic norms, which increases the chance that national prices could start to decline sometime in 2026.
  3. Prices are mixed: the national median is only slightly up year‑over‑year, but some local markets (notably California) have seen significant price drops, so conditions vary a lot by region.

Announcing the 2026 Cyber 150

The Security Industry • 18 implied HN points • 09 Mar 26
🕹 Technology Market Data
  1. The Cyber 150 uses LinkedIn headcount growth tracked in the IT‑Harvest Dashboard to identify the top 150 fastest‑growing midsize cybersecurity companies (50–500 employees), and the winners are published in a shared spreadsheet.
  2. AI security topped the list by category, with many winners offering agentic or AI‑powered solutions—MDR, autonomous pentesting, AI SOC analysts, DSPM, and behavioral risk tools—signaling a clear shift toward AI‑first defenses.
  3. Several winners drew major funding or were acquired and eight grew past the 500‑employee cutoff, and the dataset is positioned as a practical prospecting tool for vendors, recruiters, and event organizers (RSA exhibitors are flagged).

December 2025 Residential Home Sales

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 23 Feb 26
💰 Finance Market Data
  1. Home sales have been mostly flat through December but are starting to show signs of picking up.
  2. Inventory has been falling since the summer, which suggests supply is beginning to tighten.
  3. Months-of-inventory remains above seven months, so there is still ample supply and many willing counterparties in the market.

Excel Forever

Net Interest • 42 implied HN points • 06 Feb 26
💰 Finance Market Data
  1. AI assistants can rapidly build serviceable financial models inside Excel by pulling public data and automating forecasts, showing how much routine analyst work can be automated.
  2. Excel remains the central workspace for finance because it’s a shared language that lets analysts inject judgment, so AI that integrates with Excel is more useful than tools that try to replace it.
  3. Advances in AI (bigger context windows and better reasoning) put pressure on legacy market-intelligence vendors and valuations, though complex cases and human judgment still matter.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.4% year-over-year in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 71 implied HN points • 27 Jan 26
💰 Finance Market Data
  1. U.S. house prices rose modestly year-over-year — the Case-Shiller national index was up about 1.4% and the FHFA index about 1.9% — but inflation outpaced those gains so real home values fell.
  2. There is a sharp regional split: Midwestern and Northeastern markets led gains (Chicago +5.7%, New York +5.0%), while several Sun Belt cities showed year-over-year declines (Tampa −3.9%, Phoenix −1.4%, Dallas −1.4%, Miami −1.0%).
  3. Monthly data show small positive momentum after earlier declines — Case-Shiller rose about 0.4% month-to-month (seasonally adjusted) and FHFA rose about 0.6% — yet overall price momentum remains muted and many metros saw monthly drops before seasonal adjustment.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 11 Feb 26
💼 Business Market Data
  1. Existing home sales likely ran at about a 4.0 million seasonally adjusted annual rate in January, down roughly 8% from December and slightly below last January.
  2. Adverse late‑January weather and fewer business days probably reduced closed sales, so the unadjusted year‑over‑year decline should look larger.
  3. Median single‑family home prices were about 1% higher year over year, and the consensus NAR estimate for January sales (around 4.25M) may be too high given limited local data and upcoming revised seasonal factors.

4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 62 implied HN points • 26 Jan 26
💼 Business Market Data
  1. The NAR moved to an earlier monthly reporting schedule, which reduces the early sample available for projections and makes larger revisions to reported sales more likely.
  2. Inventory is rising — active single-family listings are up week-over-week and substantially up year-over-year, suggesting inventory may have bottomed early and that the usual spring pickup in March could be stronger.
  3. Sales and new listings remain muted overall — December showed small YoY gains on an unadjusted basis but 2025 had the weakest annual sales since 1995, and new listings are still well below 2019 levels in many markets.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.91 million SAAR in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 12 Feb 26
💰 Finance Market Data
  1. Existing-home sales fell to a 3.91 million SAAR in January, down 8.4% from December and 4.4% year-over-year.
  2. Median existing-home price rose 0.9% year-over-year to $396,800, so prices are slightly higher even as sales cool.
  3. Inventory edged down to 1.22 million while months-of-supply rose to 3.7 months, which is about the same supply level as before the pandemic.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 06 Feb 26
💰 Finance Market Data
  1. Early-reporting markets show January existing-home sales down year-over-year (about 7.2% in those markets), and seasonally adjusted national sales are likely lower. Many areas hit by Winter Storm Fern haven’t reported yet, so delayed closings could make the final numbers weaker.
  2. New listings were up modestly (about 2.1% YoY) and active inventory rose roughly 11.4% YoY, so supply is increasing in these markets. However, listings are still down compared with January 2019 in many places.
  3. Mortgage rates averaged about 6.2% in November and December, and January closings mostly reflect contracts signed then, which likely weighed on sales. Overall, most of these local markets remain well below January 2019 sales levels.

October 2025 Residential Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 12 Jan 26
💼 Business Market Data
  1. September and October residential construction updates are now available and cover recent activity for those months.
  2. Full details are behind a subscription paywall, but there is an option to claim a free post or subscribe to read everything.
  3. The write-up includes detailed month-by-month construction reporting for readers who access the full content.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 20 Jan 26
💼 Business Market Data
  1. The NAR is reporting existing-home sales much earlier in the month now. That shortens the window for early projections and may lead to bigger revisions in the initial numbers.
  2. Inventory is rising across markets — Altos shows single-family active listings up about 10% year‑over‑year and regional samples show inventory up roughly 7–11%. This suggests supply may have bottomed and is returning ahead of the usual spring pickup.
  3. Sales are mixed: December had modest year‑over‑year gains but 2025 was the weakest annual sales year since 1995. In California sales edged up slightly while the statewide median price fell, pointing to softer demand and a more balanced market.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 12 Jan 26
💰 Finance Market Data
  1. December existing home sales look mostly unchanged year‑over‑year, and 2025 may end up as one of the weakest sales years since 1995.
  2. Inventory and listing trends are mixed: new listings were down about 4.5% year‑over‑year while active inventory was up roughly 9–10% YoY, with both measures still differing from 2019 levels.
  3. December closings mainly reflect contracts signed in October and November when mortgage rates averaged about 6.25%, and working‑day/seasonal adjustments can noticeably change the reported year‑over‑year results.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 11 Feb 26
💰 Finance Market Data
  1. Reports are being released earlier, which shrinks the early sample used for forecasts and raises the chance of bigger revisions; recent winter storms also delayed some closings and could make January sales look weaker than they really were.
  2. In the local markets that have reported, closed sales are down noticeably year‑over‑year (around -5.6% NSA), so seasonally‑adjusted national sales for January are more likely to be flat or slightly down instead of a strong gain.
  3. New listings are modestly down (~1.6% YoY) while active inventory is up (~5.8% YoY), so supply is higher than a year ago but still mixed compared with pre‑pandemic 2019 levels.

Asking Rents Decline Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 06 Jan 26
💰 Finance Market Data
  1. Asking rents are falling nationwide year-over-year and have been declining for many consecutive months according to multiple indexes.
  2. Rising supply and weak demand — driven by slower household formation, a construction surge in multifamily units, and higher vacancies — are keeping downward pressure on rents.
  3. Trends vary by type and place: single-family rents have risen modestly while multifamily and many metros show declines, with immigration policy and seasonal slowdowns also influencing demand.

Final Look at Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 23 Dec 25
💼 Business Market Data
  1. Existing‑home sales remain weak — November's SAAR was about 4.13 million, roughly 24% below pre‑pandemic (2017–2019) levels, with year‑to‑date sales down about 0.5% and 2024 the weakest year since 1995.
  2. Supply is rising and uneven — active inventory is up about 8.8% year‑over‑year and months‑of‑supply are above pre‑pandemic levels, though new listings are down in many markets and regional differences are large.
  3. Prices could come under pressure — the national median price is up about 1.2% year‑over‑year now. Rising inventory suggests further regional price declines and a possible national decline in 2026, and December sales look likely to be slightly lower year‑over‑year despite modestly lower mortgage rates.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 07 Jan 26
💰 Finance Market Data
  1. 2025 saw one of the weakest years for existing home sales since 1995 and could be the lowest year on record since then.
  2. Early December data show a small year‑over‑year rise in sales in early‑reporting markets, but new listings fell about 9.6% while active inventory climbed about 12.7%.
  3. Compared with December 2019, new listings and sales are much lower (new listings down about 28%) while inventory is much higher in most areas, and mortgage rates around 6.25% in Oct–Nov likely restrained buyer activity.

Lawler: Another Strange NAR Reading on Northeast Median Sales Prices

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 19 Dec 25
💼 Business Market Data
  1. A national report showed very small year‑over‑year gains in median existing home prices, with the Northeast barely rising, which contradicts state realtor and MLS data.
  2. This pattern mirrors a prior instance when preliminary estimates were later revised much higher, so a substantial upward revision—especially for the Northeast—seems likely in a future release.
  3. The discrepancy implies preliminary regional median price estimates can be unreliable, so local MLS/state data or later revised reports are safer for assessing true price trends.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 12 Dec 25
💰 Finance Market Data
  1. Home sales in the sampled local markets cooled in November, down about 5.7% year‑over‑year and still well below November 2019 levels; seasonally adjusted national sales look to be flat or slightly down.
  2. New listings fell about 6.1% year‑over‑year in November after rising the prior month, and remain roughly 16% below October 2019 activity.
  3. Active inventory was up about 9.8% year‑over‑year, but the change is uneven across regions — much higher in places like Denver and Phoenix and lower in areas such as Grand Rapids and San Diego.