The hottest International Markets Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Removing crash risk from the carry trade

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 12 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investing Trading Risk management Economic Policy International Markets
  1. The carry trade borrows money from low-interest currencies and invests in high-interest ones, but it can be risky. Many investors fear a market crash when doing this.
  2. Recent research suggests that focusing on currencies from countries with high debt might reduce crash risks. This means there are strategies, like the debtor carry, that could help avoid big losses.
  3. Using a debtor carry strategy can provide similar long-term returns to traditional carry trades but with less risk. This is a useful approach for investors in international bonds or multi-asset portfolios.

Shades of 2008?

The Dollar Endgame • 239 implied HN points • 29 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Banking Market Trends International Markets Risk management
  1. The commercial real estate market is facing challenges due to decreased demand for office and retail spaces, leading to increased vacancy rates.
  2. Approximately $1.2 trillion of commercial real estate debt in the US is set to mature within the next two years, posing risks for banks and investors.
  3. There are concerns of a commercial real estate crisis resembling the 2008 financial crisis, with warning signs evident in the US, Europe, and Asia.

Breaking Through the Plateau: How Shopify Can Take on Amazon and Win

The SHIPTO.ME Blog • 2 HN points • 16 Feb 23
💼 Business E-commerce Technology International Markets User Experience Social media
  1. Shopify needs to innovate with new technologies like VR and AI to enhance shopping experiences.
  2. Expanding into new markets, especially in Asia and Latin America, can help Shopify grow.
  3. To compete with other enterprise platforms, Shopify should focus on developing features for large businesses.

My Interview on Korea's Hankyung TV

Deep Dive Tangents and Rationalizations • 0 implied HN points • 04 May 23
💰 Finance Stock Market International Markets Investing Economic outlook
  1. The growing attractiveness of Korean stocks is driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, such as forecasts of GDP growth in Emerging Markets and the movement to diversify production out of China.
  2. There has been a noticeable increase in foreign investor ownership in the Korean market, with January showing a significant jump in value, reflecting a net 'buy-in'.
  3. The outlook for the Korean stock market seems positive for the foreseeable future, with measures to enhance international investor access and potential market growth, despite challenges like market research issues and concerns over ceding control to foreign interests.

January 2016 Data Update 3: Country Risk and Pricing

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 09 Jan 16
💰 Finance Risk management International Markets Valuation Methods Investment Strategies
  1. Country risk matters for business, and it's based on where a company operates, not just where it is based. Companies can face risks from markets they rely on for revenue.
  2. Different countries have different levels of investment risk, affecting equity risk premiums. Understanding these risks helps investors make better decisions.
  3. Stocks from various countries are priced differently, often reflecting local market conditions. It's important to consider these multiples when investing internationally.
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Emerging Markets... and maturity....

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 24 Aug 09
💰 Finance Market Trends Valuation Investing Economic Analysis International Markets Emerging Markets Investing Valuation Currency Market Trends
  1. Emerging markets are now focusing more on individual companies instead of just macroeconomic factors. This means people are paying closer attention to how well companies are run and their financial choices.
  2. In the past, most business valuations in Brazil were done in US dollars due to distrust in the local currency. Recently, there's been a shift to using the Brazilian Reais, showing more confidence in the local economy.
  3. Brazilian companies are increasingly focusing on domestic investors rather than just attracting foreign ones. This shows that the market is maturing and recognizing the importance of local investors.