The hottest Trading Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

Crude Analysis

Doomberg • 7620 implied HN points • 30 Dec 25
💼 Business Trading
  1. Traditional ways of judging oil markets are outdated. The shale revolution and new infrastructure have changed how supply, storage, and pricing work.
  2. Salt dome storage and big fractionation centers like Mont Belvieu have made NGLs a massive, flexible part of the energy system. They can store hundreds of millions of barrels and separate products for domestic use or export.
  3. You can't treat crude as an island — analysts who ignore NGL processing, storage, exports, and hub pricing miss key market drivers. Markets should be analyzed with all those interconnected elements in view.

Understanding the Altcoin Market

DeFi Education • 719 implied HN points • 18 Sep 24
🔮 Crypto Trading
  1. There are many altcoins in the market now, making it really important to choose wisely. With less money available to invest, knowing which altcoins to pick can help you succeed.
  2. Tokens usually come from either private markets or public launches, and the early investors can affect a token's success. It’s important to understand how and when these tokens are released to predict their future value.
  3. In the world of altcoins, prices often shift based on news or market trends. Staying informed and understanding the market dynamics can give you an edge when trading or investing.

Aerodrome - Uniswap Killer?

DeFi Education • 379 implied HN points • 22 Sep 24
🔮 Crypto Trading
  1. Aerodrome Finance is a fast-growing decentralized exchange, mainly on Coinbase's Layer 2 called 'Base'.
  2. In just over a year, Aerodrome has attracted over 10,000 daily users and handles about $9 billion in trading each month.
  3. The platform is generating significant earnings, with annual trading fees exceeding $100 million.

Fringe Finance Stocks To Watch

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 3 implied HN points • 23 Mar 26
💰 Finance Trading
  1. Collects proprietary stock ideas and shows the most recent stocks to watch along with past performance for selected picks.
  2. Features a yearly "Stocks I'm Watching" roundup that highlights specific picks and tracks how they performed across each year.
  3. The page is behind a paywall, so you need a paid subscription or to sign in to access the full content.

Life in the Fast Lane With Robinhood Markets

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 2681 implied HN points • 21 Dec 25
💰 Finance Trading
  1. Robinhood grew fast by making trading feel like a game that gives quick dopamine hits, which attracts young, aggressive traders. That design encourages frequent, risky trading rather than long-term investing.
  2. The company’s main profit comes from selling customer orders (payment for order flow) to high-frequency market makers and pushing high-margin products like options and zero-day trades. Those products provide big leverage and can wipe out inexperienced traders while generating hefty fees for the platform.
  3. Robinhood is expanding into prediction markets, deeper crypto leverage, and partnerships with market makers to drive more engagement and revenue. That strategy locks users into riskier products and raises the chance many will suffer large losses if markets turn down.
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Artificial Intelligence and Finance

Points And Figures • 479 implied HN points • 04 Feb 26
💰 Finance Trading
  1. Start small with AI projects: cheap, hands-on pilots can improve efficiency and save money while posing little risk to taxpayers.
  2. Real experience matters more than buzzwords; people who haven't worked with AI often buy useless solutions, so leaders should use knowledgeable, practical teams.
  3. AI will reshape finance by automating routine tasks and acting as a decision-support tool, freeing people to focus on higher-value work rather than magically executing better trades.

Using Options As A Value Investor: Part 1

Behavioral Value Investor • 118 implied HN points • 02 Mar 26
💰 Finance Trading
  1. Options can enhance a value investor's returns when used alongside rigorous fundamental valuation and a long‑term investment process.
  2. Never assume unlimited downside risk — avoid naked calls and other strategies that expose you to unlimited losses.
  3. Know the basics: calls and puts give rights to buy or sell at a strike price, American options can be exercised anytime, options trade on exchanges, and using covered positions (like covered calls or puts) limits obligations and can lower your effective purchase price.

Introduction to Prediction Markets

DeFi Education • 699 implied HN points • 26 Jul 24
🔮 Crypto Trading
  1. Prediction markets let users bet on the outcomes of real-world events, like elections or interest rates, by creating and trading tokens. This allows for both speculation and hedging against risks in the financial markets.
  2. Polymarket is a leading prediction market platform that has seen rapid growth, particularly during election cycles. Users can make money by providing liquidity and taking advantage of market mispricings.
  3. Memecoins and prediction markets serve different purposes for betting on events. Prediction markets offer specific outcomes with sound pricing, while memecoins allow for uncapped upside but carry risks of fluctuations based on popularity.

What's Kalshi's revenue?

Technically • 31 implied HN points • 12 Mar 26
💰 Finance Trading
  1. Kalshi handled about 203 million trades and roughly $41.7 billion in volume, generating about $545.6 million in trading fee revenue from those trades.
  2. Over 82% of the activity is sports (including parlays), so the platform functions a lot like a sportsbook even though users trade peer-to-peer and Kalshi also acts as a market participant and liquidity provider.
  3. Fees follow a formula tied to P*(1-P) (taker fee ≈ round up(0.07·C·P·(1-P)), maker fee ≈ 0.0175·C·P·(1-P)), which makes fees highest near 50% probability and lower at extreme odds, and resolution practices and regulatory treatment remain somewhat manual and unsettled.

Tokenized Trading Finally Comes

Points And Figures • 426 implied HN points • 19 Jan 26
💰 Finance Trading
  1. Tokenized stocks are becoming real and come in three forms — native, wrapped, and synthetic — which can enable 24/7 trading and programmable features that may not exactly match traditional shareholder rights.
  2. Tokenization reduces friction and costs by speeding settlement, enabling easy fractional ownership, simpler lending/shorting, and broader global access, which should make markets more liquid and capital more efficient.
  3. Tokenization will shift market structure and risks: it can change who has the trading edge, create arbitrage between token and regular markets, embed AML/KYC and other rules into tokens, and introduce legal and governance uncertainties.

Market Making Stuff Up

DeFi Education • 719 implied HN points • 12 Jul 24
🔮 Crypto Trading
  1. Market makers provide liquidity by buying and selling tokens, improving trading efficiency. They help reduce transaction costs for traders.
  2. Projects hire market makers for better market visibility and tighter price spreads. This makes investors feel more confident when buying tokens.
  3. Market making can be risky and not always profitable. Market makers try to manage risks while looking for ways to profit from fees or token options.

Oil Flips A Shit: First Trade Ideas For Monday

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 29 implied HN points • 09 Mar 26
💰 Finance Trading
  1. Oil prices jumped into triple digits near $119 after a Middle East escalation, output cuts, and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, raising the risk of a sudden or prolonged supply shock.
  2. Policymakers are considering releases from strategic petroleum reserves to calm markets, which could blunt the price shock but underscores the seriousness of the global macro risk.
  3. The oil spike is already weighing on global equities and boosting volatility, creating fast-moving trading opportunities but also higher downside risk for markets.

Are Insiders Making a Killing on Polymarket?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 282 implied HN points • 19 Jan 26
🔮 Crypto Trading
  1. A Polymarket user turned a $32,000 wager into about $400,000 by betting Nicolás Maduro would be out of power, then deleted their account, prompting questions about who knew what.
  2. Prediction markets can let people with access to sensitive information make large, fast profits, raising concerns that insiders may be emboldened to cash in.
  3. Prediction markets are not new: economists like Robin Hanson proposed them decades ago and even suggested using them for governance (a concept called futarchy), which makes their rise both influential and controversial.

Commodity Taxes

Points And Figures • 399 implied HN points • 02 Jan 26
💰 Finance Trading
  1. Open prediction-market positions on December 31 can be treated like commodity contracts and must be marked to market, meaning you owe tax on any unrealized gains at year-end.
  2. Gains taxed under Section 1256 get a 60/40 split between capital gains and ordinary income, producing a blended rate often around 22%, and the tax is due even if the position later loses value.
  3. The 1986 tax reform closed a tax-sheltering loophole so losses after year-end can be carried forward, and consistency with commodity rules suggests prediction markets should follow the same tax treatment.

Top Links 954 Financial nihilism. Italian gold. Confronting defeat & Modi v. the Maoists.

Chartbook • 414 implied HN points • 17 Dec 25
💰 Finance Trading
  1. US markets are seeing a surge in speculative retail trading. Daily share volumes rose about 60% to around 18 billion and retail traders now account for more than half of short-dated options.
  2. The newsletter highlights Italian cultural and artistic topics. Examples include Ion Bitzan’s Recolta and discussions of Italian gold.
  3. It covers hard political and security themes, including pieces on confronting defeat and conflicts like Modi’s campaign against Maoist insurgents.

If You Only Watch One Thing In Today's Trading...

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 26 implied HN points • 02 Mar 26
💰 Finance Trading
  1. Pre-market futures are signaling a clear risk-off move, with the Dow down about 1.2%, the S&P down ~1.1%, and the Nasdaq down ~1.4%.
  2. Gold is rallying roughly 3% as capital shifts into traditional hedges, showing a flight-to-safety reaction.
  3. There are two very different market paths possible this week, so how futures and sector action evolve will likely determine which direction markets take.

"A Perfect Storm For Silver": Comex Supplies Continue To Shrink Rapidly

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 34 implied HN points • 26 Feb 26
💰 Finance Trading
  1. Silver supplies on the Comex are shrinking fast as registered and eligible inventories are being drawn down and investors are taking physical metal out of the vaults.
  2. The silver market is in backwardation, meaning spot prices are above futures, which signals immediate physical shortage and strong buyer demand pushing prices up.
  3. Gold also shows ongoing physical demand with metal leaving vaults and high delivery volumes, and together these trends could put significant strain on Comex inventories in 2026.

Understanding Illiquidity

DeFi Education • 759 implied HN points • 03 Apr 24
🔮 Crypto Trading
  1. Illiquidity can make it hard to quickly sell or buy assets. This means you might struggle to find a buyer or seller when you need one.
  2. Memecoins create buzz because small investments can sometimes lead to huge profits. It attracts traders hoping for quick wins.
  3. The hype around memecoins can distract from more stable investments. It's essential to understand the risks involved before diving in.

District One on Blast Explained: How to Win

DeFi Education • 739 implied HN points • 29 Mar 24
🔮 Crypto Trading
  1. DistrictOne is a new platform that aims to attract users from popular crypto chat platforms like Discord. Joining is cheap, costing around $20, and you can access various chat rooms called Spaces.
  2. By participating in DistrictOne, you can earn rewards like OLE tokens and other bonuses. Even minimal daily interactions can lead to returns that may double or triple your initial investment.
  3. To maximize your experience, focus on joining active chat rooms and engage frequently. Buying shares and using boosts can help increase your earnings from the platform.

Coinbase Q1 2024 Earnings Update

DeFi Education • 499 implied HN points • 03 May 24
🔮 Crypto Trading
  1. Coinbase stock has seen a recent drop but has gained 16% since the last earnings report. This means it's important to look at the bigger picture rather than just short-term changes.
  2. The company is viewed as becoming a quasi-monopoly in the US, which suggests strong future potential. Holding the stock is based on this long-term belief.
  3. Investors are not focusing solely on earnings as a quick play, but rather on the overall growth and position of Coinbase in the market.

Portfolio Update

Spilled Coffee • 24 implied HN points • 23 Feb 26
💰 Finance Trading
  1. He bought one of his three stock picks for 2026, specifically a software company.
  2. He shared a full breakdown of the trade, including what he bought and the price paid per share.
  3. The detailed write-up is behind a paywall and available only to paid subscribers.

Don't Lose Your Hyperliquid Airdrop!

DeFi Education • 539 implied HN points • 08 Apr 24
🔮 Crypto Trading
  1. To qualify for the Hyperliquid airdrop, you must log in and accept the new Terms and Conditions by April 13.
  2. After accepting the new terms, it's wise to deposit funds and make a small trade to ensure your activity is on record.
  3. The potential value of the governance token and the $PURR memecoin could be significant, so don't miss out!

Retail Investors: The New Smart Money

Spilled Coffee • 48 implied HN points • 04 Feb 26
💰 Finance Trading
  1. Retail investors are now a permanent market force, making up roughly 20–25% of trading volume and controlling a huge share of assets with over 100 million brokerage accounts.
  2. They’ve grown more sophisticated, increasingly using ETFs, options, and disciplined strategies like “buy the dip,” signaling more diversified portfolios and better risk management.
  3. Real-time data, social platforms, and crowd-sourced research have collapsed information gaps, letting retail coordinate and influence markets in ways institutions must track and respond to.

How I'd Trade Gold And Silver Here

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 48 implied HN points • 26 Jan 26
💰 Finance Trading
  1. Gold and silver have surged dramatically over the last year and a half, showing wild price action.
  2. The long-term bullish view on precious metals remains intact, with the recent rally not undermining the structural macro case.
  3. Short-term positioning is being reassessed, asking whether a short-term top is in and using four new data points to guide trading decisions.

Airdrop Farming Opportunity (Closes Soon!)

DeFi Education • 539 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
🔮 Crypto Trading
  1. There's a new chance to participate in an airdrop farming opportunity, but it's ending soon. Don't miss out if you're interested!
  2. A snapshot has already been taken, which means important data has been collected for this opportunity. Make sure you've completed any necessary actions by now.
  3. This information is for people who pay for a subscription. If you're not a subscriber, you may need to sign up to access all the details.

The Dam Has Burst In Silver And Gold - Now What?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 51 implied HN points • 14 Jan 26
💰 Finance Trading
  1. Silver and gold have surged sharply — silver is up about 6% and trading near $91 an ounce, signaling a major breakout in precious metals.
  2. This move looks like a "blow-off valve" for excess money printing. Precious metals are absorbing the inflationary pressure that monetary expansion creates.
  3. Whether this is a short squeeze or a blow-off top is less important than the practical choice investors face about taking profits, and there are signs the run-up may not be over.

Watching From Afar

Points And Figures • 479 implied HN points • 16 Jul 25
💼 Business Trading
  1. The CME trial highlights how traders and members suffered financially and emotionally when trading shifted to electronic platforms. Many had to sell their memberships and stocks to survive during tough times.
  2. Understanding different types of networks, like open and closed ones, is crucial in business. Closed networks can provide trust and stability, while open networks encourage competition and innovation.
  3. The way exchange boards operate can impact trust and progress. Members may lose confidence if the board lacks expertise or innovation, leading to a disconnect between the exchange's history and its current direction.

Rapid Fire: What We Looked at this Week

DeFi Education • 619 implied HN points • 03 Dec 23
🔮 Crypto Trading
  1. Crypto is really active right now, and it's important to stay updated to make good choices. Keeping informed helps you navigate through the chaos.
  2. There are archives available where you can learn the basics of crypto. It's useful to check them out if you're new or want to refresh your knowledge.
  3. If there are specific topics you want to know more about, you can leave comments to ask for more information. Engaging with the community can help everyone learn better.

CHEAP JAPANESE STOCK INDEX FORWARDS

The MacroTourist • 412 implied HN points • 19 Jan 24
💰 Finance Trading
  1. The author has a new favorite Japanese stock index position betting on Nikkei outperforming S&P 500 and getting long volatility.
  2. The focus of the article is not on fundamental reasons for the position, but on a unique trading edge.
  3. The content of the post is available only to paid subscribers.

Fruit Vendors & Market Makers

DeFi Education • 739 implied HN points • 20 Sep 23
🔮 Crypto Trading
  1. A good market maker, like the apple vendor, is always ready to buy and sell, which helps keep prices stable and customers happy. This reliability makes people trust them.
  2. Being a market maker comes with risks, such as buying too much stock or competitors entering the market. It's important to be aware of these challenges.
  3. Creating a fair and stable market is better for long-term success than using tricks to drive prices up. People will appreciate and trust a vendor who plays fair.

Paid Sub Q&A

DeFi Education • 4656 implied HN points • 27 Nov 21
🔮 Crypto Trading
  1. There is a paid Q&A session where subscribers can ask questions or make requests. It's a good chance to get specific help or information.
  2. The post encourages interaction from paid subscribers, making it feel more personal and engaging.
  3. The Q&A is organized to take place during holidays, hinting that the creators are dedicated and available even when others are not.

Software Is Fine

Software Snack Bites • 21 implied HN points • 19 Jan 26
💰 Finance Trading
  1. AI-native startups will be able to build and maintain custom software more cheaply and could disrupt incumbents, but real-world issues like trust, ongoing maintenance, and company adoption still limit immediate wholesale replacement.
  2. The recent drop in many software stocks is driven largely by market flows, hedging, and correlated selling with semiconductors and datacenter names, not a fundamental ‘end of software’ story.
  3. Top-quality software companies are relatively resilient, but founders of legacy or pre-AI products need to add clear AI-driven growth hooks to earn premium multiples as markets reprice.

wind and rain and sun and data

Dan Davies - "Back of Mind" • 334 implied HN points • 19 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Trading
  1. Supply and demand for electricity become more unpredictable with an increasing proportion of wind and solar energy
  2. The profit motive drives the application of information processing power and bandwidth to solve energy planning problems
  3. Market trading and the profit motive are ways to match the variety of the energy problem with the regulatory system

A Nothing Burger

Points And Figures • 692 implied HN points • 13 Feb 25
💰 Finance Trading
  1. Moving the NYSE Chicago to Texas isn't a big deal in finance. It won't change how trading really works since most of it happens off the main exchanges anyway.
  2. Chicago's financial industry is struggling, with fewer major banks and investment firms. Many professionals believe Dallas is becoming a better place for finance careers.
  3. Texas is improving its business environment with low taxes and better competition for financial firms. This may help cities like Dallas attract more businesses and talent.

Is Silver At $200 Possible?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 35 implied HN points • 05 Jan 26
💰 Finance Trading
  1. CME margin hikes can force leveraged longs to liquidate and cause sharp, temporary price drops, but that mainly transfers exposure from weak hands to deep pockets rather than fixing any physical metal shortage.
  2. Large COMEX deliveries and steady accumulation by well‑capitalized players indicate real physical demand is being removed from the tradable float, tightening supply and making large upside moves — including scenarios that point toward $100–$200 silver — plausible if those forces persist.
  3. Physical silver ownership is fundamentally different from trading paper because metal can’t be margin‑called, and geopolitical/policy trends plus valuation mean‑reversion arguments increase the odds that strategic hoarding could push silver into triple digits over time.

Coinbase v. SEC: Will the COIN Shorts Win?

DeFi Education • 959 implied HN points • 05 May 23
🔮 Crypto Trading
  1. Coinbase is fighting back against the SEC, arguing that the digital assets they trade aren't securities. They believe the legal tests applied to these cases might not even fit.
  2. The SEC has raised concerns about Coinbase's business practices, particularly regarding staking services and crypto wallets. Coinbase argues that these services are more like IT support than investments.
  3. If Coinbase's legal arguments are successful, it could change how the government regulates crypto. This could provide much-needed clarity in the industry and potentially protect users and businesses.

Q3 2023 In Review

DeFi Education • 519 implied HN points • 29 Sep 23
🔮 Crypto Trading
  1. Crypto markets seem to be feeling a bit too excited right now, which some are calling an 'echo bubble'.
  2. Stronger performance in crypto might not happen until the monetary policy becomes more relaxed.
  3. Big changes and developments in the crypto world occurred in Q3, setting the stage for future predictions.