The hottest Rationality Substack posts right now

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Bayes is not a phase

DYNOMIGHT INTERNET NEWSLETTER • 453 implied HN points • 27 Feb 25
📖 Philosophy Epistemology Logic Decision Theory Rationality
  1. Bayesian reasoning is something we all use, even if we don't realize it. It's more about how we naturally think than some complex math.
  2. There are two types of uncertainty: aleatoric (random) and epistemic (based on knowledge). Mixing them helps us make better decisions.
  3. Arguing over which type of probability is 'real' is silly. It's better to recognize that life involves many messy decisions where formal reasoning can help, but is often complicated.

Why rationality (almost) never wins

Random Minds by Katherine Brodsky • 4 implied HN points • 04 Mar 25
📖 Philosophy Rationality Emotion Decision-making Cognition Disinformation
  1. People often make decisions based on emotions rather than facts. This shows that logic does not always win in arguments and discussions.
  2. Disinformation campaigns use emotional appeals to convince people, rather than relying on logical arguments. They aim to evoke strong feelings that can overshadow rational thinking.
  3. When emotions are triggered, parts of our brains responsible for logic can become less active, making it harder for us to think critically. This highlights the power of emotions in shaping our beliefs.

About Being of Two Minds

Technohumanism • 79 implied HN points • 15 Aug 24
📖 Philosophy Consciousness Self-awareness Rationality Modernity History
  1. The shift from Fortune to Reason marks a big change in how people see themselves and the world. People started to believe they could improve themselves instead of just relying on luck.
  2. The rise of new ideas and technology during the Renaissance helped create this sense of self-awareness. It changed how people thought about their place in the world and their ability to impact it.
  3. Even with all the changes, many old ideas and beliefs still linger. Our present largely builds on the past, showing that even with progress, the past isn't completely gone.

People Spend Too Much Time On Decisions with Equally Satisfying Outcomes

Rob Henderson's Newsletter • 984 implied HN points • 20 Oct 24
📖 Philosophy Decision-making Cognitive Bias Behavioral Science Rationality
  1. People often waste time making decisions that don't have a big difference in the outcome. It's okay to choose quickly when the results are similar.
  2. Analysis paralysis can happen when someone overthinks decisions. Simplifying the process can help avoid this trap.
  3. Making a choice and moving forward can lead to more satisfaction than worrying too much about what could have been done differently. Taking action is usually better than hesitating.
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a dialogue with myself concerning eliezer yudkowsky

Thicket Forte • 819 implied HN points • 02 Apr 23
🕹 Technology AI safety Philosophy Rationality Science fiction Public Discourse
  1. People are frustrated with the beliefs and ideas of Eliezer Yudkowsky. They feel overwhelmed by the impact his views have had on their lives. It's exhausting to navigate the complicated discussions around AI safety.
  2. Yudkowsky's warnings about AI risks seem to have attracted more interest in AI instead of preventing problems. Some believe his approach only made things worse, which feels ironic to his followers.
  3. There's a sense that relying on one person's ideas, like Yudkowsky's, isn't enough to solve complex issues. Collaboration and collective thinking are seen as necessary to address the challenges of AI effectively.

What Would Ayn Rand Say About Existential Risk From Misaligned AI?

The Future of Life • 39 implied HN points • 28 Jun 24
📖 Philosophy Ethics Existentialism AI Risk Rationality
  1. Ayn Rand's Objectivism suggests that intelligence and morality are connected. This means that a superintelligent AI could likely develop values that align with human rights.
  2. The Orthogonality thesis argues that intelligence and goals are separate. However, from an Objectivist viewpoint, a really smart being would need to adopt certain virtues to be effective.
  3. Even if an AI is intelligent, it doesn't mean it will care about humans. There’s no guarantee an advanced AI would think our survival is important, even if it acts morally toward other intelligences.

In Praise of Passivity

Fake Noûs • 277 implied HN points • 23 Sep 23
📖 Philosophy Knowledge Values Rationality Social theory
  1. History shows that solutions without proper knowledge often do more harm than good.
  2. Public ignorance and the dismissal of expert advice are major obstacles in policymaking.
  3. Rational ignorance, lack of clear motives, and the complexity of social issues contribute to our inability to effectively address societal problems.

My Talk About the Sleeping Beauty Paradox

By Reason Alone • 16 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
📖 Philosophy Probability Decision Theory Cosmology Ethics Rationality
  1. The Sleeping Beauty paradox involves a coin flip that affects how often she wakes up, which raises questions about probability. People have different opinions on how she should assess the chance of heads when she wakes up.
  2. One group, called 'halfers', believes the chance of heads remains 50/50 since she doesn't gain new information about the coin when waking up.
  3. Another group, 'thirders', argues she should think there's a one in three chance it's heads because of how many times she might wake up, depending on the coin flip.

Decoupling decoupling from rationality

Unconfusion • 1 HN point • 07 Jan 24
📖 Philosophy Rationality Cognition Psychology Thinking Bias
  1. Some people think differently about ideas, separating them from context, while others mix context with their thoughts. This difference can help explain disagreements between people.
  2. Rational thinking involves a careful process where we slow down our automatic thoughts and consider ideas more deeply. This is important to avoid mistakes and biases in our reasoning.
  3. The term 'decoupling' has changed over time and now it sometimes refers to a personality trait rather than a careful thinking process. It's important to understand this shift to better discuss rationality and disagreements.

Paper, Blogpost, Podcast

Research && Reflection • 1 HN point • 14 May 24
📖 Philosophy Psychology Rationality Media Analysis Cultural critique Communication
  1. The struggles in dating are different for men and women today. Women often deal with being 'involuntarily single', while men may feel 'involuntarily celibate'.
  2. You can improve how you think by letting go of beliefs that don't help you predict the future. This means trusting only the ideas that work for you.
  3. The Dwarkesh Podcast features experts discussing important topics. Learning from their insights can help you understand complex subjects better.

Don’t try to optimise life decisions

Tecnica • 0 implied HN points • 28 Jul 24
📖 Philosophy Decision-making Existentialism Rationality Chaos Theory Human behavior
  1. Life decisions can be unpredictable, and overthinking them isn't always helpful. Sometimes, a seemingly small choice can lead to big changes.
  2. We often need to balance enjoying the present and thinking about the future when making decisions. It's a choice between being happy now or planning for what's ahead.
  3. Accept that life is a chaotic system, and not every decision will turn out the way you expect. It's okay to embrace the uncertainty instead of trying to control everything.

Working with mostly-truths

Meaningness • 0 implied HN points • 21 Aug 20
📖 Philosophy Truth Rationality World
  1. The post discusses working with mostly-truths and the complexities of rationality and rationalism.
  2. It introduces the concept of 'mostly-truths' and provides follow-ups to exercises from the previous week.
  3. The focus is on the relationship between truth, formal rationality, and its application in the real world.

Finding Peace Amidst Chaos: The Stoic Way

Wayne's Earth • 0 implied HN points • 20 Jun 23
📖 Philosophy Stoicism Self-Control Rationality Acceptance Resilience
  1. Finding peace amidst chaos is crucial for mental and emotional well-being, allowing us to focus on what truly matters in life and reduce stress and anxiety.
  2. Stoicism teaches self-control, rationality, and acceptance to help in finding peace amidst chaos, emphasizing on what we can control like our thoughts and actions rather than external factors.
  3. Applying Stoic philosophy in daily life involves releasing attachments to external things, focusing on self-improvement, living intentionally, and cultivating empathy, resilience, and mindfulness.