The hottest Cognitive Bias Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Why Ubiquitous Video Isn’t Making People More Reality-Based

Singal-Minded • 655 implied HN points • 29 Jan 26
🎭️ Culture Cognitive Bias
  1. Ubiquitous video does not reliably make people more reality-based; even clear footage often fails to change minds. Many viewers double down on their initial beliefs instead of updating when new evidence appears.
  2. Emotional, social, and tribal commitments shape how people interpret video, so people rationalize or ignore contrary evidence and create competing narratives. That means footage can inflame polarization rather than settle facts.
  3. Persistent human cognitive biases mean more footage isn’t a cure for misinformation or flawed institutional responses. Video can help sometimes, but it won’t eliminate motivated reasoning or group-driven judgment.

Psyched Out

The Leap • 299 implied HN points • 11 Jun 24
🎾 Sports Cognitive Bias
  1. The gambler's fallacy is a common mistake. People often think that after a losing streak, they're 'due' for a win, which isn't how probabilities work.
  2. Rumination can hurt your game. If you keep thinking about past bad hands, you're wasting mental energy that could be used to make better decisions now.
  3. Anchoring is when you focus too much on past chip counts. It's important to play based on your current stack, not how much you had before.

Only A Truth-Based Relationship With Reality Can Satisfy

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 1927 implied HN points • 24 Nov 24
📖 Philosophy Cognitive Bias
  1. People really want a true understanding of reality, even if they don't always realize it. Society pushes false ideas and distractions that keep us from finding real happiness.
  2. Chasing after material things, social status, or knowledge often leads to disappointment because they are based on lies. True satisfaction comes from aligning our beliefs and actions with reality.
  3. To find happiness, we must confront our personal falsehoods and the lies in society. This journey to truth can be tough, but it's necessary for building a better world.

certain and wrong: you can’t enfactify your way out of it

Brain Pizza • 331 implied HN points • 16 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Cognitive Bias
  1. People often believe certain things because they seek information that matches their views. This is called confirmation bias, and it makes polarisation worse.
  2. Our social identities and core values can cause people to reject accepted facts if those facts threaten their group. Scientific facts can become divisive if they clash with personal beliefs.
  3. When faced with suggestions from authorities, many people resist due to a feeling of losing control. This reactance makes them less open to ideas, even if they're scientifically supported.

People Spend Too Much Time On Decisions with Equally Satisfying Outcomes

Rob Henderson's Newsletter • 984 implied HN points • 20 Oct 24
📖 Philosophy Cognitive Bias
  1. People often waste time making decisions that don't have a big difference in the outcome. It's okay to choose quickly when the results are similar.
  2. Analysis paralysis can happen when someone overthinks decisions. Simplifying the process can help avoid this trap.
  3. Making a choice and moving forward can lead to more satisfaction than worrying too much about what could have been done differently. Taking action is usually better than hesitating.
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The Dunning-Kruger Effect: Cognitive Bias or Statistical Artefact?

UX Psychology • 218 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
🔬 Science Cognitive Bias
  1. The Dunning-Kruger effect explains how people with lower ability often overestimate their competence, while highly skilled individuals tend to underestimate their capabilities.
  2. The disconnect between competence and metacompetence judgments is seen not only in psychology but also in areas like aviation, memory, and medical skills. It can impact product development and UX teams by highlighting the challenge of relying on feedback from less competent individuals.
  3. Debate continues on whether the Dunning-Kruger effect is purely a statistical artefact or a psychological phenomenon. Regardless, it prompts the need for critical self-awareness, peer review, and continuous growth to mitigate its impact in fields like UX.

TBM 315: The Self-Sealing Argument Trap

The Beautiful Mess • 727 implied HN points • 13 Oct 24
📖 Philosophy Cognitive Bias
  1. Self-sealing arguments trap you into a no-win situation. No matter how you respond, it feels like you lose.
  2. These arguments often happen in discussions where your personal beliefs are questioned. They can make it hard to express your true thoughts without feeling defensive.
  3. It's important to recognize when you're in these traps. Finding a different way to respond can help you avoid feeling stuck and give you a better chance for a positive outcome.

too crazy to see

bad cattitude • 314 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Cognitive Bias
  1. People often struggle to accept shocking information because it feels too unbelievable. This is called cognitive dissonance, where their brain wants to reject things that don't fit their understanding.
  2. Normalcy bias can make us overlook serious problems because we think things like that don't happen. It's hard for us to see when something is way outside of what's normal.
  3. Free speech and access to truthful information are crucial for social change. When individuals start to question and learn, it can lead to a broader awakening in society.

penn and telling on themselves

bad cattitude • 236 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Cognitive Bias
  1. People often manipulate others by framing arguments to control how they are interpreted. It's important to recognize when this happens.
  2. Noticing manipulation techniques helps you see the truth and reduce their power over you. Asking critical questions can keep you grounded.
  3. Instead of trusting distant opinions, focus on building trust with close friends and family. This creates a solid foundation for your beliefs.

Why I’m Taking A Break From Twitter

Matt’s Five Points • 459 implied HN points • 03 Mar 22
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Cognitive Bias
  1. Social media, like Twitter, can make people more like 'spectators' of politics rather than active participants. Many focus on national issues and forget about local politics that also matter.
  2. People tend to only seek out information that supports what they already believe, which can limit real thinking and understanding. This 'soldier mindset' can be reinforced by the way social media works.
  3. Multitasking caused by constant notifications from apps can reduce our ability to focus and really think about things deeply. Setting aside time to read and write can help bring back that focus.

Illusory Truth Effect

Psych • 39 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
🔬 Science Cognitive Bias
  1. The Illusory Truth Effect is a phenomenon where repetition can make us believe something is true, even if it's not.
  2. It can influence decision-making by shaping our perceptions and beliefs.
  3. There are strategies to mitigate the Illusory Truth Effect, such as fact-checking and seeking diverse sources of information.

The "AI-first" trap 🪤

Year 2049 • 26 implied HN points • 22 Jul 25
🕹 Technology Cognitive Bias
  1. Sometimes we focus too much on technology instead of solving real problems. It's important to ask if there’s a simpler way to deal with the issue at hand.
  2. Over-relying on familiar tools can lead us to use them in situations where they don’t fit, like the Juicero juicer which was overly complex.
  3. To avoid getting stuck in the 'AI-first' trap, we should start with simple solutions and really understand the problems we're trying to solve.

Kintsugi: The Art of Mending

Polymathic Being • 80 implied HN points • 15 Dec 24
📖 Philosophy Cognitive Bias
  1. Kintsugi is a Japanese art of mending broken things with gold, which symbolizes that beauty can come from flaws and imperfections. It teaches us that just because something is broken doesn't mean it's worthless.
  2. This concept can be applied to relationships, where misunderstandings or conflicts can lead to fractures. By acknowledging and repairing these issues together, relationships can become even more valuable.
  3. To apply Kintsugi in relationships, you need to be open to understanding your biases, carefully listen to others, and work towards forgiveness and growth. It's a process that requires ongoing effort and care.

The Fallacy of the Enneagram Personality

Skeptic • 47 implied HN points • 21 Feb 25
📖 Philosophy Cognitive Bias
  1. The Enneagram of Personality is popular, but many scientists say it's not a real science. It's often based on mysticism and lacks solid proof.
  2. People find personal growth through the Enneagram, but it’s not a reliable personality test. Many just think it works because it feels right.
  3. The theories behind the Enneagram's nine types are often misunderstood. They are not based on childhood experiences, but might be related to inborn traits.

Why do people hate redesigns?

UX Psychology • 178 implied HN points • 28 Oct 21
🕹 Technology Cognitive Bias
  1. Users often hate redesigns due to familiarity bias, where they prefer the familiar even if the change is beneficial, and the endowment effect which makes them value what they already have more.
  2. Psychology plays a significant role in user reactions to redesigns, as habits are hard to change, leading to user dissatisfaction with altered interfaces.
  3. To improve user experience with redesigns, allowing opt-ins for changes can give users control, conducting thorough user research helps address pain-points, and making small, incremental changes can ease user adaptation.

Strong Opinions, Loosely Held

Fish Food for Thought • 18 implied HN points • 29 Mar 23
💼 Business Cognitive Bias
  1. Senior leaders should have strong opinions but be open to changing their minds based on new information
  2. Confirmation bias can make it difficult to stay open to new ideas, but it's important for growth
  3. The Dunning-Kruger effect highlights how people with low knowledge tend to overestimate their abilities, while knowledgeable individuals may underestimate themselves

The hot hand fallacy

Optimally Irrational • 2 HN points • 06 Jun 23
🔬 Science Cognitive Bias
  1. The hot hand fallacy is a famous cognitive bias related to probability judgments.
  2. People often underestimate the presence of streaks in random sequences, leading to the hot hand fallacy.
  3. Game theory suggests that momentum in sports, like the hot hand, may have strategic reasons to exist.

Mountains of evidence

do clouds feel vertigo? • 0 implied HN points • 10 Jan 24
📖 Philosophy Cognitive Bias
  1. Changing long-held beliefs can be very difficult, similar to trying to change family traditions. People often resist changes to their narratives, even when there is strong new evidence.
  2. We are naturally inclined to seek agreement with others, which helps shape our stories and perspectives. Our social circles greatly influence our thoughts and actions.
  3. When new ideas challenge established beliefs, it can create disruption. Over time, fresh perspectives will challenge and change old narratives, leading to new understandings.

Facts that Stun

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 21 Jun 10
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Cognitive Bias
  1. Smart people can make big mistakes when they ignore reality, as shown in both The Best and the Brightest and The Big Short. It's dangerous to let outdated views cloud decision-making.
  2. People often avoid facts that challenge their beliefs, which can lead to poor outcomes. Instead of facing uncomfortable truths, they find ways to shield themselves from the information.
  3. Personal memories can also be unreliable, just like beliefs about politics or economics. Our past can be shaped by what we choose to remember or ignore, leading to false narratives.

Expert trap (Part 1 of 3)

Pav writes • 0 implied HN points • 06 Jun 23
🚌 Education Cognitive Bias
  1. Knowledge often gets locked in specific areas and levels of expertise due to factors like hierarchy bias and my-side bias.
  2. The Expert trap can lead to inefficient sharing of knowledge within our civilization, affecting education and learning in general.
  3. Illusory knowledge, which involves familiarizing with terminology without deep comprehension, is abundant and affects how knowledge is encoded and learned.