Logging the World

Logging the World explores the application of mathematics and statistics to understand global and societal trends, particularly focusing on the COVID-19 pandemic. It examines data trends, variant impacts, policy implications, and personal stories, aiming to demystify complex issues for a general audience while occasionally touching on broader mathematical concepts.

COVID-19 Analysis Data Interpretation Mathematics in Society Health Policy Personal Experiences Social Media Dynamics Educational Policies Statistical Methods

The hottest Substack posts of Logging the World

And their main takeaways

The Last Crusade or the Temple of Doom?

398 implied HN points β€’ 14 Jan 23
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate change Environmental Impact Renewable Energy
  1. The COVID-19 pandemic led to extreme groupings on each side of the argument, mimicking past experiences in climate change discussions
  2. Centrist views, acknowledging real problems but also the progress being made, are important in addressing climate change
  3. Promoting centrist voices and avoiding extreme rhetoric can be effective in fostering positive action and moving away from a sense of hopelessness

Out for a Duck

279 implied HN points β€’ 13 May 23
🎢 Music Performance Genres Artists Live Events Memories
  1. The musician Donald 'Duck' Dunn, known for his work on bass, had a significant impact in the music world and was part of iconic performances.
  2. Collaborations in the music industry, such as those involving the MGs and other notable artists like Neil Young and Eric Clapton, created powerful and memorable live performances.
  3. Music has the unique ability to evoke strong emotions and memories, bringing joy and connection through shared experiences.

UK COVID data, week starting 30th January

338 implied HN points β€’ 02 Feb 23
πŸ₯ Health Politics Covid data Science communication Long Covid Infections Vaccination
  1. The XBB.1.5 COVID variant is around 10-12%, growing but not as dominant as other variants like BA.5 or BA.1
  2. ZOE data shows a rise in COVID cases and hospital admissions are increasing again, with a 4-week doubling rate
  3. The latest Long COVID data from ONS indicates a modest drop in severe symptoms, despite high infection numbers

The Social Network (Part 2)

279 implied HN points β€’ 13 Apr 23
πŸ”¬ Science Networks Statistics Social media Modeling
  1. Real social networks exhibit more complex behaviors than simple mathematical models can capture.
  2. The structure of social media follower counts differs significantly from the ErdΕ‘s–RΓ©nyi network model, with some users having exponentially more followers than others.
  3. Recent network models like the BarabΓ‘si-Albert model better represent the dynamics of online social networks like Twitter, where heavy-tailed distributions of follower counts emerge.

UK COVID data, week starting 7th November 2022

458 implied HN points β€’ 10 Nov 22
πŸ₯ Health & Wellness Covid data
  1. The latest weekly hospital admission data in the UK shows a favorable overall fall, with the seven-day average decreasing significantly, hinting at positive trends in COVID cases.
  2. There are concerns about a possible flattening out of the downward trend, potentially indicating a new uptick driven by higher-level variants.
  3. Encouraging data trends continue in the UK, with cases halving every two weeks, peak and decline in death rates, and falls in recently vaccinated age groups.
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Balancing the equation

239 implied HN points β€’ 11 Jun 23
πŸ₯ Health & Wellness Data Analysis
  1. The author discusses instances where the UK Government may have under-reacted during the COVID-19 pandemic, pointing out missed opportunities for better responses based on data.
  2. There is a focus on specific timeframes like March 2020, September 2020, November to December 2020, September 2020 to July 2021, and Autumn 2021, highlighting key moments for potential improvement in managing the pandemic.
  3. The author presents a balanced view by acknowledging areas where the official response missed out in reacting appropriately, apart from the more commonly discussed issues like PPE and testing.

Eating out, helping out

239 implied HN points β€’ 07 Jun 23
πŸ₯ Health & Wellness Public Health COVID-19 Government Response Policy Analysis Preventive measures
  1. The UK's Eat Out to Help Out scheme of August 2020 is under scrutiny in connection with the COVID public inquiry.
  2. Data suggests that admissions were shrinking during the Eat Out to Help Out period, and growth started after the scheme ended.
  3. It's crucial for inquiries to consider instances when warnings were ignored but outcomes weren't catastrophic, to avoid future overreactions.

Anti-vaxxers don't always lie

318 implied HN points β€’ 29 Jan 23
πŸ₯ Health Politics
  1. Random noise includes accidental distortions that can be corrected easily, like mud splatters on a road sign.
  2. Adversarial noise involves intentional distortions meant to mislead, akin to adding paint to change a road sign's meaning.
  3. It's important to be vigilant against misinformation by reading critically, providing context upfront, and being cautious when sharing information.

UK COVID update week starting 21st May 2023

239 implied HN points β€’ 25 May 23
πŸ₯ Health & Wellness Vaccination Immunity Masks
  1. Current COVID situation in the UK is relatively stable with low hospitalizations and deaths due to gained immunity from vaccines. Admissions and hospital pressures are encouragingly low.
  2. The growth rate of the XBB.1.16 variant is comparable to previous variants, indicating a smaller wave of cases. Expectations are calibrated based on past trends.
  3. Calls for increased masking at this point may not be effective as the R number would likely return to current levels after a short-term mask-wearing period. Public readiness to wear masks may have diminished.

UK COVID data, week starting 27th February

259 implied HN points β€’ 02 Mar 23
  1. COVID data indicates a potential peak in hospital admissions and case numbers
  2. Overall discussion is shifting towards older COVID-related issues
  3. Profound thanks for the support and interest in new book Numbercrunch

UK COVID data, week starting 13th February

259 implied HN points β€’ 16 Feb 23
πŸ₯ Health & Wellness COVID-19 Data Long Covid
  1. Acknowledgment that the 'Russian roulette model' of Long COVID does not align with data, suggesting underselling of the observed effects
  2. Observation of a slow growth phase in COVID numbers driven by the XBB.1.5 variant, with a notable share of sequenced cases consisting of this strain
  3. Hospital data reflecting a slow growth phase in COVID admissions, with the rate of increase remaining slower than a 4-week doubling pace

Shouting "Free bird" in a crowded theatre

378 implied HN points β€’ 09 Nov 22
πŸ•Ή Technology Social media Monetization Content creation
  1. The author is considering moving their content from Twitter to Substack due to recent changes in Twitter's policies, like the requirement to pay for Twitter Blue to avoid shadowbanning.
  2. The author has enjoyed interacting with people on Twitter but feels unsupported by the platform.
  3. Despite not planning to leave Twitter completely, the author is exploring other platforms like Substack for long-form content.

A very royal function

199 implied HN points β€’ 04 May 23
πŸ’Ύ History Mathematics Contributions
  1. Many royals in history have played a significant role in supporting and patronizing mathematics, creating environments where mathematicians could thrive and contribute to important work.
  2. Royal figures like Ptolemy I Soter and King Charles XII of Sweden had direct connections to mathematics, either through patronage or making contributions to the subject themselves.
  3. Monarchs like Queen Victoria and al-Mu'taman of Zaragoza have interesting mathematical connections and stories associated with them, showcasing how math and royalty intersected in various ways throughout history.

UK COVID data, week starting 21st November 2022

318 implied HN points β€’ 24 Nov 22
πŸ₯ Health & Wellness Covid data Admissions
  1. UK COVID admissions have stopped falling and are now flat, indicating a potential change in trend.
  2. Analyzing the pandemic on a graph reveals unusual fluctuations from July to December 2021, with linear trends before and after.
  3. Weekly ONS infection survey shows a welcome drop in COVID cases, although there are hints of a slowdown in the decline.

UK COVID data, week starting 6th March

199 implied HN points β€’ 09 Mar 23
πŸ₯ Health & Wellness Covid data Public Health
  1. The UK COVID data for the week starting March 6th shows a stable trend with no significant changes.
  2. The ZOE data suggests a downward trend, though the variant percentages remain relatively stable, with XBB.1.5 gradually increasing but not causing major damage.
  3. There has been a recent rebound in the UK COVID admissions data, with some fluctuations indicating a potential growth in case numbers.

UK COVID data, week starting 23rd January

239 implied HN points β€’ 26 Jan 23
πŸ₯ Health & Wellness COVID-19 Data Variants
  1. The UK COVID data for the week starting 23rd January showed mixed results, with some indicators going down initially but then reversing.
  2. The XBB.1.5 variant of COVID continues to grow, but at a slower rate compared to before.
  3. Hospital-acquired admissions have risen, balancing out the fall in community admissions, suggesting a more complex situation in the overall picture.

UK COVID data, week starting 12th December

279 implied HN points β€’ 15 Dec 22
πŸ₯ Health & Wellness Covid data
  1. COVID numbers are showing slow growth in various places like the UK, with spreadable variants causing an increase, but the growth is slower than in past years.
  2. Data indicates an increase in COVID cases and hospital admissions, with the potential for further growth before Christmas.
  3. Different visualizations show the growth trend, with specific variants like BQ.1 gaining prominence, suggesting an ongoing rise in cases.

UK COVID data, week starting 20th February

199 implied HN points β€’ 23 Feb 23
πŸ₯ Health & Wellness Covid data
  1. COVID variants are still present, but some are not growing rapidly. The XBB.1.5 variant is increasing in share and spreading.
  2. Vaccines are proving to offer protection from death according to ONS data. Vaccination is not associated with a spike in all-causes death.
  3. COVID hospital admissions are rising, with numbers just under 900. Admissions are slightly slower than the 4-week doubling rate, but it is concerning.

UK COVID data, week starting 28th November 2022

279 implied HN points β€’ 01 Dec 22
πŸ₯ Health & Wellness COVID-19 Data Health Updates Long Covid
  1. The UK COVID data for the week starting 28th November 2022 shows a trend of growth in hospital admissions and cases.
  2. There is an increase in the number of people reporting limitations in daily activities due to Long COVID, indicating a potential impact from past infection waves.
  3. Variants at Level 6 and 7 are outgrowing Level 5 variants, contributing to the overall growth observed in COVID data.

UK COVID data, week starting 14th November 2022

279 implied HN points β€’ 17 Nov 22
πŸ₯ Health & Wellness COVID-19 Data
  1. The UK COVID data for the week starting 14th November 2022 shows a significant growth of Level 5 and above strains, indicating a potential larger wave in the future.
  2. Hospital admissions seem to be close to bottoming out, but the trend is not as positive as desired, with rates not decreasing as rapidly as before.
  3. There is a need to closely monitor the situation, especially with week-on-week admissions ratios showing slower decline, although current admission numbers are still relatively low.

The edge of reason

219 implied HN points β€’ 28 Dec 22
πŸ”¬ Science Mathematics Models Analogies Limitations Uncertainty
  1. When adding numbers, there are basic properties like getting another number, having a special zero that doesn't change sums, and having partners that return to zero when added.
  2. Mathematicians use abstraction to find essential properties, like in groups, to study various systems efficiently and effectively.
  3. Seeking historical analogies in current events can be misleading; it's important to understand the limitations of models and not be overconfident in applying mathematical rules to real-world situations.

AI (Automated Interpolation)

139 implied HN points β€’ 26 Apr 23
πŸ•Ή Technology AI Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence Generative models Language Models
  1. Models are good at interpolating known data but struggle with extrapolating beyond that, which can lead to significant errors.
  2. AI models excel at interpolation tasks, creating mashups of existing styles based on training data, but may struggle to generate genuinely new, groundbreaking creations.
  3. Great works of art often come from pushing boundaries and exploring new styles, something that AI models, bound by training data, may find challenging.

Tanks for the memories

179 implied HN points β€’ 11 Dec 22
πŸ”¬ Science Statistics Probability Military History Cybersecurity Data Analysis
  1. In a raffle with a large number of tickets, the biggest number drawn out starts to show some structure as more tickets are selected.
  2. By looking at the maximum value drawn in a raffle, one can estimate the total number of tickets, a concept applied in statistics like the German tank problem.
  3. Sequential numbering schemes can reveal interesting insights, as seen in situations like the Skripal poisonings and Novak Djokovic's COVID test, highlighting the importance of careful numbering practices.

Novaxia vs Bigpharmia

199 implied HN points β€’ 04 Nov 22
πŸ”¬ Science Health Graphs Vaccines Modeling Data Analysis
  1. Understand the impact of vaccines on disease spread: Novaxia and Bigpharmia are examples of two scenarios showing how vaccines can affect the spread of a disease differently.
  2. Graphs help visualize data trends: Using different types of graphs can show how disease spread changes over time and the effectiveness of interventions like vaccines.
  3. Consider the importance of logarithmic scales: Logarithmic scales can provide a different perspective on data trends, allowing for better understanding of the impact of interventions like vaccines.

Christmas chocolates, plus UK COVID data, week starting 5th December 2022

159 implied HN points β€’ 08 Dec 22
πŸ₯ Health & Wellness Covid data Mathematics
  1. The author discusses using mathematical and statistical concepts to understand real-world situations, including analyzing Christmas chocolates.
  2. The UK COVID data from late 2022 shows a notable increase in hospital admissions, but the rate of growth is not as alarming as in previous waves.
  3. Various data plots highlight slow increases in COVID cases and hospital admissions, indicating a less rapid growth compared to past variant-driven waves.

Long run Long Covid post

99 implied HN points β€’ 18 Dec 22
πŸ₯ Health & Wellness Long Covid Vaccination Data Analysis Risk Assessment
  1. The idea of COVID risks changing over time due to factors like vaccination and new variants must be understood.
  2. The concept of Long COVID being like taking a risk with 'Russian roulette' might not accurately represent the real-world data.
  3. Severe Long COVID conversion rates don't seem to be as high as initially expected, indicating the situation is different than a constant risk per infection.

Too much information

99 implied HN points β€’ 21 Nov 22
πŸ”¬ Science Information Theory Entropy Mathematics Communication Technology
  1. Information Theory studies how randomness and predictability affect the transmission and compression of data.
  2. Entropy measures the information gained from a source, highlighting the balance between predictability and unpredictability.
  3. Redundancy can protect messages against noise in communication channels, showing the importance in modern data transmission scenarios.

Lateral thinking

79 implied HN points β€’ 12 Nov 22
πŸ”¬ Science Research Data Analysis Public Health Epidemiology Testing
  1. Lateral flow tests had a much lower false positive rate than many initially assumed, around 0.03%, showing their effectiveness.
  2. Data on PCR retests of positive lateral flow tests revealed a positive predictive value of 82% even at low prevalence, supporting the reliability of lateral flow tests.
  3. A rise in prevalence due to variants like delta and omicron, as well as ease in lockdown restrictions, contributed to the wider acceptance of lateral flow tests for controlling the pandemic.

Why I hate Pi Day

1 HN point β€’ 14 Mar 23
πŸ”¬ Science Mathematics Physics Analysis Signal Processing Forensics
  1. Pi Day can be annoying for some mathematicians due to the overemphasis on the beauty of the Pi formula and memorizing digits of Pi.
  2. The beauty in mathematics is not just about formulas like Pi, but also in the precise form of logical arguments and the way pieces fit together like a complex mechanism.
  3. Fourier analysis, involving Fourier transform and harmonics, is a powerful tool used in various scientific fields beyond Pi Day celebrations.