The hottest Statistics Substack posts right now

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The Evidence That A Million Americans Died Of COVID

Astral Codex Ten • 32210 implied HN points • 22 May 25
🏥 Health Politics Public Health Pandemic response Statistics Healthcare Policy Analysis
  1. Many people are unsure if the 1.2 million COVID deaths are accurate, with some believing these deaths are linked to other causes rather than COVID itself.
  2. The data shows that total deaths during the pandemic were higher than usual, which supports the idea that many deaths were directly caused by COVID.
  3. Some argue that they don’t personally know anyone who died from COVID, but with a large population, it makes sense that not everyone would know someone affected.

Stealing Signals, Week 8, Part 1

Stealing Signals • 679 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
🎾 Sports Football Statistics Analysis Game Recap Fantasy
  1. NFL scoring has improved this season, with teams averaging 22.7 points per game, up from the previous years where numbers were lower. This shift shows offenses taking more risks and being more productive.
  2. The tight end position has seen a resurgence, with many players starting to score well again. Guys like Kyle Pitts and George Kittle are performing better, and more TEs are averaging double-digit PPR points.
  3. Certain teams are now focusing more on their run game, which affects how much they pass. The Eagles, for example, have been running more, leading to fewer pass attempts for their key receivers, though that trend might not last.

So When Are We Allowed to Ask the Patrick Mahomes Question?

Freddie deBoer • 5321 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
🎾 Sports Football Analysis Athletes Statistics Media
  1. Patrick Mahomes has had a noticeable decline in his performance over the last two seasons, which is surprising for someone viewed as one of the best quarterbacks. People should be allowed to discuss this drop in stats and performance even if his team continues to win.
  2. Despite still being a good quarterback, his recent numbers do not match the elite standards he set earlier in his career, which raises questions about his current ability. His style of play has shifted from aggressive to more conservative, leading to fewer big plays.
  3. Sports media often avoids criticizing star players like Mahomes due to their past success and the team's winning record. However, if other quarterbacks experienced similar declines, they would likely face significant scrutiny, suggesting that it's time for a more honest conversation about Mahomes.

The Higgs Discovery Did Not Take Place

arg min • 1071 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🔬 Science Physics Statistics Quantum Mechanics Scientific Method
  1. The Higgs boson was theoretically discovered, but many people argue that this claim isn't solid due to complex statistical methods used in the research. It's not just about finding a particle; it's heavily based on probabilities.
  2. A lot of the processes in particle physics rely on trust within scientific communities and committees. They decide what counts as 'discovery' often through agreed conventions rather than direct proof.
  3. Questions about the Higgs boson reflect broader concerns in science regarding accountability. It shows that scientific findings often come down to people, their processes, and their decisions rather than just raw data.

Input Volatility, Week 8

Stealing Signals • 439 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
🎾 Sports Fantasy Football Statistics Player analysis Game Strategy
  1. In leagues with WR/TE slots, tight ends (TEs) lose their value significantly because they are often less productive than wide receivers (WRs). It’s better to draft WRs instead of focusing on TEs in these formats.
  2. Carrying multiple quarterbacks (QBs) or kickers in fantasy football is usually unnecessary. If your league allows many players at these positions, it’s smarter to use your bench for players with more potential, instead of holding onto backups.
  3. When building your fantasy team, prioritize players with upside and avoid 'roster-clogging' players who don't help you win. It’s important to have flexible bench spots to adapt to injuries or bye weeks.
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Toward a Transformative Hermeneutics of Standard Model Physics

arg min • 456 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
🔬 Science Physics Statistics Philosophy Research Collaboration
  1. The Higgs discovery shows how science relies on consensus rather than just statistics. It's all about how many scientists agree on something, and that's what really gives it weight.
  2. Complex governance structures are necessary in big science projects. These systems help teams work together and make important decisions about groundbreaking discoveries.
  3. Sometimes, playful writing can lead to misunderstandings. It's important to find the right balance between being engaging and being precise when discussing complex topics.

A use-theory of testing

arg min • 436 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
🔬 Science Statistics Research Mathematics Data Analysis Theory
  1. Statistical tests are designed to help separate real signals from random noise. It's not just about understanding what they mean, but what they can do in practical situations.
  2. Many people misuse statistical tests, which can lead to misunderstandings about their purpose. Communities should establish clear guidelines on how to use these tests correctly.
  3. The main function of statistical tests is to regulate opinions and decisions in various fields like tech and medicine. They help ensure that important standards are met, rather than just preventing errors.

Last Man Standing?

Knicks Film School • 853 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
🎾 Sports Basketball Teams Players Statistics Coaching
  1. The Knicks are facing uncertainty about their final player rotation spot just days before the season starts. There are many candidates, and this could change quickly, showing the team's depth challenges.
  2. Despite potential worries about the last roster spot, the team's starting lineup is strong. It might not matter much if the starters stay healthy, similar to last season's Celtics experience.
  3. Other teams are also struggling with roster questions as salary cap rules tighten. The Knicks, like many teams, need reliable backups to step up when starters are unavailable.

How To Stop Worrying And Learn To Love Lynn's National IQ Estimates

Astral Codex Ten • 31522 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
🔬 Science Psychology Education Anthropology Statistics Sociology
  1. IQ differences between groups may not be purely genetic and can be influenced by environmental factors like nutrition and education. This means that poorer conditions in some countries can lead to lower IQ scores.
  2. People often perceive those with low IQs differently based on specific syndromes, which can cause various functional deficits. A person with a low IQ might still lead a normal life in their context.
  3. The gap in IQ scores between different groups suggests there's potential for improvement through development initiatives. Better nutrition, health care, and education can help raise IQ scores in underdeveloped areas.

What Is Statistics' Purpose?

arg min • 734 implied HN points • 14 Oct 24
🔬 Science Statistics Research Medicine Philosophy Data Analysis
  1. Statistics should help us test claims by measuring how surprising the results are. However, there's doubt about whether our current statistical tests actually do this well.
  2. Randomized trials are important because they help us learn about treatments that may not always work. They focus on safety as much as they do on finding effective solutions.
  3. The field of statistics needs to be clear about its purpose. We should distinguish between using statistics for proving theories and for practical decision-making like quality control.

Gini Coefficients...

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 115 implied HN points • 16 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inequality Economics Statistics Social Policy Education
  1. The Gini Coefficient measures income equality, where 0 means everyone is equal and 1 means one person has everything. It helps us understand how wealth is distributed in a society.
  2. Intermediate Gini values can be tricky to interpret. It's hard to know what a score like 0.25 or 0.62 really means in terms of real-life inequality.
  3. Understanding historical Gini scores can give insight into how different societies experience inequality, but the differences might not always feel significant or clear.

The Shape of Stats to Come

arg min • 634 implied HN points • 10 Oct 24
🚌 Education Statistics Optimization Philosophy Data Analysis Mathematics
  1. Statistics often involves optimizing methods to get the best results. Many statistical techniques can actually be viewed as optimization problems.
  2. Choosing a statistical method isn't just about the math—it's also based on beliefs about reality. This philosophical side is important but often overlooked.
  3. There's a danger in relying too much on tools and models we can solve. Sometimes, we force the data to fit our preferred methods instead of being open to the actual complexities.

When I find myself in times of trouble, mother math comes to me

The Intrinsic Perspective • 9701 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
📖 Philosophy Life Advice Mental health Statistics Personal Growth Complex Systems
  1. Life has ups and downs, and problems often come in clusters. It's normal to feel overwhelmed when things go wrong.
  2. When you're at a low point, remember that life is like a rollercoaster with many twists and turns. Things often improve after tough times.
  3. Statistically, when you feel at your worst, it might actually be the moment before things start to get better. Hang in there!

Designed Interactions

arg min • 257 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24
🚌 Education Statistics Optimization Mathematics Machine Learning
  1. Experiment design is about choosing the right measurements to get useful data while reducing errors. It's important in various fields, including medical imaging and randomized trials.
  2. Statistics play a big role in how we analyze and improve measurement processes. They help us understand the noise in our data and guide us in making our experiments more reliable.
  3. Optimization is all about finding the best way to minimize errors in our designs. It's a practical approach rather than just seeking perfection, and we need to accept that some questions might remain unanswered.

Convex Optimization at the Midpoint

arg min • 198 implied HN points • 17 Oct 24
🚌 Education Optimization Programming Statistics Algorithms
  1. Modeling is really important in optimization classes. It's better to teach students how to set up real problems instead of just focusing on abstract theories.
  2. Introducing programming assignments earlier can help students understand optimization better. Using tools like cvxpy can make solving problems easier without needing to know all the underlying algorithms.
  3. Convex optimization is heavily used in statistics, but there's not much focus on control systems. Adding a section on control applications could help connect optimization with current interests in machine learning.

TPRR check-in: Who has made strides earning volume so far?

Stealing Signals • 599 implied HN points • 03 Oct 24
🎾 Sports Football Analytics Statistics Data Performance
  1. Routes data is really important for understanding how well players are performing. Different sources measure these routes in different ways, which can create confusion.
  2. The NFL has started providing its own routes data, which could help standardize how we analyze player performance. This might make comparisons easier and clearer moving forward.
  3. Stats like TPRR (Targets Per Route Run) help us understand player efficiency, but they need to be used alongside other context like player roles and QB performance for better insights.

I am offering mentoring

DYNOMIGHT INTERNET NEWSLETTER • 1062 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
🚌 Education Mentoring Self-Improvement Academia Personal Development Statistics
  1. A mentoring program is being offered to help people achieve their goals. It's open to anyone, regardless of age or career stage.
  2. The mentor will have three 30-minute video sessions with chosen participants, focused on helping them with their specific challenges.
  3. This program is free and based on an application process to select three people that the mentor believes they can assist most effectively.

Inverse Problems

arg min • 515 implied HN points • 03 Oct 24
🔬 Science Mathematics Statistics Physics Engineering Computer Science
  1. Inverse problems help us create images or models from measurements, like how a CT scan builds a picture of our insides using X-rays.
  2. A key part of working with inverse problems is using linear models, which means we can express our measurements and the related image or signal in straightforward mathematical terms.
  3. Choosing the right functions to handle noise and image characteristics is crucial because it guides how the algorithm makes sense of the data we collect.

The One and the Many

The Fry Corner • 21522 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
🎭️ Culture Theater Philosophy Psychology Politics Statistics
  1. Groups of people can behave in predictable ways, even if individuals within those groups act randomly. This means we can anticipate the behavior of a crowd better than that of a single person.
  2. Statistics play a big role in predicting risks and behaviors. For example, actuarial tables help insurance companies set rates based on the likelihood of certain events, regardless of the reasons behind those probabilities.
  3. There is often a disconnect between how we view groups of people versus individuals. While we might feel negatively about humanity as a whole, we tend to appreciate and trust the individuals we meet in our daily lives.

The YouTube Thumbnail for This Would Be "POCH OUT?!?!?! FRAUD WATCH???"

No Grass in the Clouds • 159 implied HN points • 16 Oct 24
🎾 Sports Football Coaching Analysis Statistics
  1. Pochettino's current U.S. team is not as strong as the teams he previously coached, with a much lower market value.
  2. Key players like Pulisic and McKennie didn't fully participate in recent games, impacting the team's performance.
  3. The expected outcome of the games against Panama and Mexico matched reality, showing that even a great coach can't win with limited resources.

The 2024 True Sack Rate (TSR): Week 7 Update

Trench Warfare • 79 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🎾 Sports Football Statistics Player analysis Performance Metrics
  1. The True Sack Rate (TSR) is a system that evaluates sacks by defensive linemen based on how they earned those sacks. It breaks down sacks into categories, helping to better evaluate a player’s skill and performance.
  2. There are four types of sacks in the TSR, ranging from rare high-quality wins over elite blockers to more common 'cleanup' sacks that are less about skill. This helps to highlight which players are truly impactful in games.
  3. Currently, top players in the TSR have recorded impressive sack scores, showcasing their effectiveness this season. Studying their performance can give fans deeper insights into who stands out on the field.

An Inversion Cookbook

arg min • 297 implied HN points • 04 Oct 24
🚌 Education Mathematics Statistics Optimization Regression Data science
  1. Using modularity, we can tackle many inverse problems by turning them into convex optimization problems. This helps us use simple building blocks to solve complex issues.
  2. Linear models can be a good approximation for many situations, and if we rely on them, we can find clear solutions to our inverse problems. However, we should be aware that they don't always represent reality perfectly.
  3. Different regression techniques, like ordinary least squares and LASSO, allow us to handle noise and sparse data effectively. Tuning the right parameters can help us balance accuracy and manageability in our models.

Counting dimer tilings

A Piece of the Pi: mathematics explained • 36 implied HN points • 21 Feb 25
🔬 Science Mathematics Combinatorics Physics Statistics Theory
  1. Dimer tilings involve arranging domino-shaped pieces on grids, and how many ways you can arrange them can vary based on the layout. For example, on a 3x3 grid with one space empty, there are 18 different arrangements.
  2. If at least one dimension of a rectangle is even, it's possible to cover it completely with dimers. However, if both dimensions are odd, it's impossible to cover them without leaving gaps.
  3. There are mathematical patterns and theorems, like Gomory's Theorem, that help understand how to tile grids with dimers. These principles can show when tiling is possible based on the arrangement and color of squares.

2023 Excess Mortality Positively Associated With COVID Vaccination Rates

Igor’s Newsletter • 10770 implied HN points • 28 Jan 24
🏥 Health Politics COVID-19 Vaccination Mortality Statistics Analysis
  1. The study found a positive association between excess mortality and COVID vaccination rates in 2023.
  2. The real-world data suggests that COVID vaccines may increase excess mortality instead of decreasing it.
  3. Excess mortality in 2023 was somewhat lower than in 2022, but the reasons are not fully understood.

Liverpool Without Jurgen Klopp: Still Pretty Good!

No Grass in the Clouds • 119 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
🎾 Sports Soccer Coaching Statistics Player Performance Tactics
  1. Liverpool is performing well even without their former coach Jurgen Klopp. They have adapted their game style to focus on quality shots rather than long-range attempts.
  2. The team has been effective in creating high-quality chances during matches, especially when leading. This shows a strategic approach to controlling the game.
  3. Defensively, they have given up fewer chances this season, indicating improved defensive strategies. However, they tend to concede more when holding a big lead, which may suggest a tactical choice.

True Pressure Rate (TPR): Week 6 Update

Trench Warfare • 79 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24
🎾 Sports Football Analytics Player evaluation Defense Statistics
  1. True Pressure Rate (TPR) is a new tool for evaluating pass-rushers that focuses on the quality of pressures, not just the amount. This helps to understand who the best defenders really are.
  2. Pressures are categorized into three quality levels: Rare High Quality, High Quality, and Low Quality. This classification provides deeper insight into a player's performance and effectiveness.
  3. The Pressure Quality Ratio (PQR) compares high-quality pressures to low-quality ones. This helps identify players who may not have a lot of pressures but are still working hard and making an impact.

Gene-environment interactions: ubiquitous yet undetectable

The Infinitesimal • 359 implied HN points • 21 Aug 24
🔬 Science Genetics Health Environment Statistics Evolution
  1. Gene-environment interactions (GxE) are common but hard to identify in humans. They show how genetic traits can change in different environments, affecting how we understand traits like obesity or education.
  2. There are different models to explain how genes and environments work together. Some models show that environments can amplify or change the effects of multiple genetic variants on traits.
  3. Research has found that environmental factors, like socioeconomic status or education quality, can significantly influence how genetic variations are expressed, meaning genetics alone doesn't tell the whole story about traits.

UPDATE: The truth about Target 

Popular Information • 11556 implied HN points • 31 Oct 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Retail Senators Statistics Crime
  1. Target closed stores due to theft, but data showed lower levels of theft in those locations.
  2. Retailers like Target may be using theft to cover up other issues affecting their businesses.
  3. The cost of organized retail crime is a small fraction of total retail losses, with operational errors and employee theft accounting for the majority of shrink.

Rodri Vs. Pep Guardiola: Who Ya' Got?

No Grass in the Clouds • 99 implied HN points • 04 Oct 24
🎾 Sports Soccer Player analysis Team performance Statistics Trends
  1. Rodri is a key player for Manchester City, showing impressive skills in tackles, passes, and goals. He's unique in the modern game.
  2. There are rankings for the best American and Premier League soccer players, showcasing talent from different leagues.
  3. There's buzz around players like Erling Haaland potentially reaching high goal tallies in a season, while other players are gaining attention for their performances.

A Statistical Saga at a "Top" Journal

The Good Science Project • 122 implied HN points • 26 Jan 25
🔬 Science Research Statistics Publishing Peer Review Methodology
  1. Top scientific journals sometimes have trouble understanding basic statistics. This can lead to confusion and errors that affect research outcomes.
  2. A recent case showed that reviewing a paper could involve contradictory requests, like asking for a post-hoc power analysis, which is generally not helpful after results are already obtained.
  3. Researchers should not rely solely on journal editors for correct statistical advice. The system needs to improve how it addresses statistical issues in published studies.

Data Science Weekly - Issue 562

Data Science Weekly Newsletter • 179 implied HN points • 29 Aug 24
🕹 Technology Data science Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning Data Engineering Statistics
  1. Distributed systems are changing a lot. This affects how we operate and program these systems, making them more secure and easier to manage.
  2. Statistics are really important in everyday life, even if we don't see it. Talks this year aim to inspire students to understand and appreciate statistics better.
  3. Understanding how AI models work internally is a growing field. Many AI systems are complex, and researchers want to learn how they make decisions and produce outputs.

The Hall of Fame is about more than WAR

Silver Bulletin • 232 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
🎾 Sports Baseball Analytics Hall of Fame Player evaluation Statistics
  1. The Hall of Fame should consider many factors, not just one statistic like Wins Above Replacement (WAR). This means looking at achievements, player talent, and character too.
  2. Players might have high WAR scores but lack the greatness often associated with Hall of Fame status. For example, a consistent but average player shouldn't necessarily be in the Hall over a standout who had fewer career years.
  3. Voters for the Hall of Fame are required to consider a player's overall impact, including postseason performances and fan appeal. This makes it a more complex decision than just focusing on statistics.

Evaluating a Sitting Senator's Healthcare Claims

Cremieux Recueil • 392 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Healthcare Legislation Government Public Health Statistics
  1. Senator Chris Murphy made strong claims about healthcare causing deaths in the U.S. but lacked accurate data to back them up. It's important for public officials to use correct statistics when discussing serious issues.
  2. Many deaths in America are unrelated to insurance denials, especially for people over age 65 who are mostly covered by Medicare. This shows that the healthcare system isn't as profit-driven in these cases as Senator Murphy suggested.
  3. Studies have shown that expanding access to healthcare has only small effects on overall mortality. Claims about thousands of deaths caused by lack of care might be greatly exaggerated.

What is The Infinitesimal?

The Infinitesimal • 499 implied HN points • 05 Jul 24
🔬 Science Genetics Research Behavior Heritability Statistics
  1. Human traits are influenced by many tiny genetic factors, making understanding them complex. This means small changes in genetics can impact our traits in different ways.
  2. Talking about nature versus nurture isn't simple; both genetics and environment play big roles. There's often a mix of many genes working together rather than clear-cut definitions.
  3. The concept of heritability is tricky and often debated. Different studies can show very different results about how much genetics affect things like intelligence or behavior.

Some notes on assortative mating

The Infinitesimal • 339 implied HN points • 23 Jul 24
🔬 Science Genetics Evolution Statistics Heritability
  1. Assortative mating happens when partners select each other based on certain traits, like height or education, making their children more genetically similar over generations.
  2. This type of mating can lead to increased genetic variance in the population, but does not change the genetic variance within families because the parent's traits balance out among the children.
  3. When estimating heritability or variance, it’s important to use the right approach. Population-level estimates can be misleading if based on family data, and vice versa.

Data Science Weekly - Issue 559

Data Science Weekly Newsletter • 219 implied HN points • 08 Aug 24
🕹 Technology Data science AI Machine Learning Software Development Statistics
  1. Camera calibration is crucial in sports analysis. It helps track players' movements accurately by mapping video frame positions to real field locations.
  2. Understanding the context of data is important for responsible data work. Datasets need good documentation and stories to highlight their historical and social backgrounds.
  3. There's a new, free encyclopedia for learning about cognitive science. It offers easy-to-read articles on various topics for students and researchers.

Identifying bottlenecks in networks

A Piece of the Pi: mathematics explained • 48 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
🔬 Science Mathematics Networks Physics Statistics Logic Analysis
  1. Bottlenecks in networks are crucial points that can slow down communication or movement. Identifying these points helps understand how the entire network functions.
  2. Networks can be made up of different regions that are linked by these bottlenecks. Recognizing connections between these regions is important for overall analysis.
  3. Knowing where the bottlenecks are can help improve the efficiency of networks, whether in transportation or social connections. This can lead to better planning and resource allocation.