The hottest Statistics Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Top Technology Topics
Igor’s Newsletter • 10770 implied HN points • 28 Jan 24
  1. The study found a positive association between excess mortality and COVID vaccination rates in 2023.
  2. The real-world data suggests that COVID vaccines may increase excess mortality instead of decreasing it.
  3. Excess mortality in 2023 was somewhat lower than in 2022, but the reasons are not fully understood.
Mindful Modeler • 419 implied HN points • 28 May 24
  1. Statistical modeling involves modeling distributions and assuming relationships between features and the target with a few interpretable parameters.
  2. Distributions shape the hypothesis space by restricting the range of models compatible with specific distributions like a zero-inflated Poisson distribution.
  3. Parameterization in statistical modeling simplifies estimation, interpretation, and inference of model parameters by making them more interpretable and allowing for confidence intervals.
Popular Information • 11556 implied HN points • 31 Oct 23
  1. Target closed stores due to theft, but data showed lower levels of theft in those locations.
  2. Retailers like Target may be using theft to cover up other issues affecting their businesses.
  3. The cost of organized retail crime is a small fraction of total retail losses, with operational errors and employee theft accounting for the majority of shrink.
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JoeBlogs • 2044 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
  1. The game 'Choose the Hall of Famer' challenges perceptions about player value based on stats and accomplishments.
  2. Comparison between players like Jim Plunkett and Joe Namath shows that stats alone may not dictate Hall of Fame worthiness.
  3. Analyzing players like Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds reveals how defensive contributions can impact Hall of Fame considerations.
Points And Figures • 719 implied HN points • 11 Mar 24
  1. Government-reported economic numbers can be misleading, especially in non-democratic countries where they may be fake.
  2. Statistic revisions are common in economic releases, but major revisions like a 35% drop raise concerns about accuracy.
  3. Unemployment numbers from the US Department of Labor under President Biden have seen significant and questionable revisions, impacting predictions and planning based on them.
Admired Leadership Field Notes • 1022 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
  1. Momentum in sports can lead to a shift in energy and positivity, affecting the outcome of a game.
  2. Even though statistical experts claim momentum is not real and linked to the gambler's fallacy, it is a common occurrence in sports that can impact a team's performance.
  3. Teams that effectively harness momentum by maintaining a streak of positive outcomes have a higher probability of winning, as seen in data analysis of NFL games.
The Dossier • 490 implied HN points • 06 Mar 24
  1. 40 Covid vaccine candidates worldwide were claimed to be highly effective, but none of them actually worked.
  2. Pharmaceutical companies and governments globally falsely advertised Covid vaccines as the ultimate protection.
  3. The Covid-19 vaccine situation highlights the importance of scrutinizing statistics and not letting a crisis be exploited.
Mindful Modeler • 778 implied HN points • 16 Jan 24
  1. Quantile regression can be understood through the lens of loss optimization, specifically with the pinball loss function.
  2. In machine learning, quantile regression is essentially regression with the unique pinball loss function that emphasizes absolute differences between actual and predicted values.
  3. The asymmetry of the pinball loss function, controlled by the parameter tau, dictates how models should handle under- and over-predictions, making quantile regression a tool to optimize different quantiles of a distribution.
Marc Stein • 668 implied HN points • 09 Jan 24
  1. Several NBA teams are performing historically poorly this season, being outscored by at least 10 points per game.
  2. Ja Morant's season-ending injury adds to the struggles faced by the Memphis Grizzlies, impacting their performance in the league.
  3. The list of NBA teams with significant negative point differentials this season is unprecedented, with four teams facing double-digit losing margins.
Weight and Healthcare • 738 implied HN points • 27 Dec 23
  1. Using percentages without proper context can be misleading, it's crucial to provide a full picture for accurate interpretation.
  2. Understanding the difference between relative and absolute risk in statistics can prevent manipulation and provide a clearer view of the data.
  3. Different methods for handling dropouts in trials, like LOCF and BOCF, can impact outcomes significantly and need careful consideration in research.
The DisInformation Chronicle • 375 implied HN points • 15 Feb 24
  1. A German newspaper forced Science Magazine to correct a study about the pandemic origin, while American science writers ignored new research questioning the study's validity.
  2. The Science Magazine study, claiming the pandemic began in a wet market, was criticized for its statistical methodology by experts from Germany and Hong Kong, raising doubts about its conclusions.
  3. Independent experts confirmed the criticism of the study, highlighting flaws in the statistical analysis and describing Science Magazine's handling of the methodology as careless and unprofessional.
Wyclif's Dust • 2252 implied HN points • 07 Apr 23
  1. Many polygenic scores are significantly correlated with the number of children a person has, indicating a link between genetics and fertility.
  2. The effect sizes of these correlations can be influenced by the accuracy of the polygenic scores, with noise potentially underestimating the true effects.
  3. Improving polygenic scores and considering the impact of rare genetic variants are important for better understanding the relationship between genetics, fertility, and education.
Geopolitical Economy Report • 637 implied HN points • 20 Dec 23
  1. Peer-reviewed scientific studies confirm the accuracy of the Gaza health ministry's death toll statistics after criticism from US President Biden.
  2. The Gaza health ministry has a history of reporting reliable figures, crucial for international organizations' use in understanding the situation.
  3. Experts from Johns Hopkins University and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine found no evidence of inflated mortality reporting and confirmed the validity of the data provided by the Palestinian MoH.
12challenges • 257 implied HN points • 01 Mar 24
  1. The diagram shows how much social media has changed over the last 20 years, with a shift towards platforms like TikTok.
  2. The idea of using the diagram as a menu to choose preferred social media options is intriguing, revealing possible disparities in usage.
  3. The author seeks suggestions to improve the diagram's presentation and structure, anticipating future articles about social media platforms.
Mindful Modeler • 259 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
  1. Machine learning models may use shortcuts or exploit quirks in data, but it's important to consider them as playing the game according to the rules set by the data.
  2. Detecting flaws in prediction games is crucial, as models can unintentionally learn and act on misleading information from the data.
  3. Designing prediction games effectively requires a deep understanding of the data-generating process, tools like sampling theory, design of experiments, and a statistical mindset can be valuable in shaping prediction tasks.
Mindful Modeler • 99 implied HN points • 16 Apr 24
  1. Many COVID-19 classification models based on X-ray images during the pandemic were found to be ineffective due to various issues like overfitting and bias.
  2. Generalization in machine learning goes beyond just low test errors and involves understanding real-world complexities and data-generating processes.
  3. Generalization of insights from machine learning models to real-world phenomena and populations is a challenging process that requires careful consideration and assumptions.
The Auburn Observer • 373 implied HN points • 22 Jan 24
  1. Auburn's defense in SEC play has been dominant, holding most opponents to 65 points or fewer.
  2. Bruce Pearl expressed early concerns about their defense, but now they are performing exceptionally well.
  3. Auburn's defense leads the SEC in efficiency, field goal percentages, and turnover rate, showcasing a strong team commitment to defensive play.
The DisInformation Chronicle • 270 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
  1. A group of virologists, including Anthony Fauci, may have intentionally diverted attention away from a possible lab accident in Wuhan at the start of the pandemic.
  2. An analysis published in a British science journal has found that the Science Magazine study advocating for the market origin of COVID is based on flawed statistics, contradicting the claims made in the study.
  3. While American media has largely ignored the analysis questioning Science Magazine's study, German journalists, like those from the weekly science magazine Spektrum, have reported on it.
Weight and Healthcare • 459 implied HN points • 13 Dec 23
  1. The weight loss industry manipulates terminology to market weight loss as a treatment for obesity, leading to misconceptions and ineffective interventions.
  2. The term 'weight-related conditions' is often used inaccurately to imply causation, ignoring confounding variables like weight stigma and healthcare disparities.
  3. The concept of 'sustained weight loss' is sometimes misrepresented by the weight loss industry to imply success, when in reality, it often refers to temporary weight loss followed by regain.
UX Psychology • 218 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
  1. The Dunning-Kruger effect explains how people with lower ability often overestimate their competence, while highly skilled individuals tend to underestimate their capabilities.
  2. The disconnect between competence and metacompetence judgments is seen not only in psychology but also in areas like aviation, memory, and medical skills. It can impact product development and UX teams by highlighting the challenge of relying on feedback from less competent individuals.
  3. Debate continues on whether the Dunning-Kruger effect is purely a statistical artefact or a psychological phenomenon. Regardless, it prompts the need for critical self-awareness, peer review, and continuous growth to mitigate its impact in fields like UX.
The Rabbit Hole • 1395 implied HN points • 11 May 23
  1. Data is not racist, but there is a stigma around discussing data on certain topics.
  2. Challenging dominant narratives and spreading reliable information is important.
  3. Engaging with data, asking questions, and using platforms like Twitter can lead to expanding the discourse and challenging establishment ideologies.
David Friedman’s Substack • 260 implied HN points • 29 Jan 24
  1. Words like 'exponential' and 'organic' are commonly misused with meanings different from their actual definitions.
  2. Terms like 'guarantee' and 'literally' are often used incorrectly causing confusion in communication.
  3. Understanding technical terms like 'statistically significant' is crucial to avoid misinterpretation in discussions.
Silver Bulletin • 679 implied HN points • 01 Oct 23
  1. State partisanship and COVID vaccination rates strongly predict COVID death rates even after considering age.
  2. Simplicity in statistical analysis can help in avoiding overfitting models and focusing on robust, true facts.
  3. Vaccination rates are more predictive of COVID death rates than state partisanship once age is controlled for.
Patterns in Humanity • 1159 implied HN points • 17 Feb 23
  1. First, there is a detailed analysis of the financial impact of immigration in Denmark based on a government report.
  2. Second, the analysis explores the rates of violent crime convictions by nation of origin, showing disparities between groups.
  3. Lastly, the importance of adjusting for age and sex in understanding the differences in financial contributions and crime rates among immigrants is highlighted.
Logging the World • 518 implied HN points • 04 Nov 23
  1. The author reflects on their first year on Substack, the experience of a post going viral, and their content on COVID and other topics.
  2. The post discusses the author's favorite non-COVID topics including a clever idea, an education policy, and the joys of walking.
  3. The article highlights the impact of a post on Dominic Cummings boosting views, emphasizes the unpredictable nature of virality, and teases future discussions on the UK COVID Inquiry.
Hoop Vision • 196 implied HN points • 30 Jan 24
  1. Offensive scheme in basketball is more complex than just looking at screen and cut data.
  2. Virginia's offense is unique with a high volume of off-ball screens but low three-point attempts.
  3. The effectiveness and impact of Virginia's Blocker-Mover offense on generating threes is a point of interest for analysis.