The hottest Statistics Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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How To Stop Worrying And Learn To Love Lynn's National IQ Estimates

Astral Codex Ten • 31522 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
🔬 Science Psychology Education Anthropology Statistics Sociology
  1. IQ differences between groups may not be purely genetic and can be influenced by environmental factors like nutrition and education. This means that poorer conditions in some countries can lead to lower IQ scores.
  2. People often perceive those with low IQs differently based on specific syndromes, which can cause various functional deficits. A person with a low IQ might still lead a normal life in their context.
  3. The gap in IQ scores between different groups suggests there's potential for improvement through development initiatives. Better nutrition, health care, and education can help raise IQ scores in underdeveloped areas.

I am offering mentoring

DYNOMIGHT INTERNET NEWSLETTER • 953 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
🚌 Education Mentoring Self-Improvement Academia Personal Development Statistics
  1. A mentoring program is being offered to help people achieve their goals. It's open to anyone, regardless of age or career stage.
  2. The mentor will have three 30-minute video sessions with chosen participants, focused on helping them with their specific challenges.
  3. This program is free and based on an application process to select three people that the mentor believes they can assist most effectively.

Stealing Signals, Week 8, Part 1

Stealing Signals • 679 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
🎾 Sports Football Statistics Analysis Game Recap Fantasy
  1. NFL scoring has improved this season, with teams averaging 22.7 points per game, up from the previous years where numbers were lower. This shift shows offenses taking more risks and being more productive.
  2. The tight end position has seen a resurgence, with many players starting to score well again. Guys like Kyle Pitts and George Kittle are performing better, and more TEs are averaging double-digit PPR points.
  3. Certain teams are now focusing more on their run game, which affects how much they pass. The Eagles, for example, have been running more, leading to fewer pass attempts for their key receivers, though that trend might not last.

The Higgs Discovery Did Not Take Place

arg min • 1071 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🔬 Science Physics Statistics Quantum Mechanics Scientific Method
  1. The Higgs boson was theoretically discovered, but many people argue that this claim isn't solid due to complex statistical methods used in the research. It's not just about finding a particle; it's heavily based on probabilities.
  2. A lot of the processes in particle physics rely on trust within scientific communities and committees. They decide what counts as 'discovery' often through agreed conventions rather than direct proof.
  3. Questions about the Higgs boson reflect broader concerns in science regarding accountability. It shows that scientific findings often come down to people, their processes, and their decisions rather than just raw data.

Input Volatility, Week 8

Stealing Signals • 439 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
🎾 Sports Fantasy Football Statistics Player analysis Game Strategy
  1. In leagues with WR/TE slots, tight ends (TEs) lose their value significantly because they are often less productive than wide receivers (WRs). It’s better to draft WRs instead of focusing on TEs in these formats.
  2. Carrying multiple quarterbacks (QBs) or kickers in fantasy football is usually unnecessary. If your league allows many players at these positions, it’s smarter to use your bench for players with more potential, instead of holding onto backups.
  3. When building your fantasy team, prioritize players with upside and avoid 'roster-clogging' players who don't help you win. It’s important to have flexible bench spots to adapt to injuries or bye weeks.
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Toward a Transformative Hermeneutics of Standard Model Physics

arg min • 456 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
🔬 Science Physics Statistics Philosophy Research Collaboration
  1. The Higgs discovery shows how science relies on consensus rather than just statistics. It's all about how many scientists agree on something, and that's what really gives it weight.
  2. Complex governance structures are necessary in big science projects. These systems help teams work together and make important decisions about groundbreaking discoveries.
  3. Sometimes, playful writing can lead to misunderstandings. It's important to find the right balance between being engaging and being precise when discussing complex topics.

A use-theory of testing

arg min • 436 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
🔬 Science Statistics Research Mathematics Data Analysis Theory
  1. Statistical tests are designed to help separate real signals from random noise. It's not just about understanding what they mean, but what they can do in practical situations.
  2. Many people misuse statistical tests, which can lead to misunderstandings about their purpose. Communities should establish clear guidelines on how to use these tests correctly.
  3. The main function of statistical tests is to regulate opinions and decisions in various fields like tech and medicine. They help ensure that important standards are met, rather than just preventing errors.

Last Man Standing?

Knicks Film School • 853 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
🎾 Sports Basketball Teams Players Statistics Coaching
  1. The Knicks are facing uncertainty about their final player rotation spot just days before the season starts. There are many candidates, and this could change quickly, showing the team's depth challenges.
  2. Despite potential worries about the last roster spot, the team's starting lineup is strong. It might not matter much if the starters stay healthy, similar to last season's Celtics experience.
  3. Other teams are also struggling with roster questions as salary cap rules tighten. The Knicks, like many teams, need reliable backups to step up when starters are unavailable.

What Is Statistics' Purpose?

arg min • 734 implied HN points • 14 Oct 24
🔬 Science Statistics Research Medicine Philosophy Data Analysis
  1. Statistics should help us test claims by measuring how surprising the results are. However, there's doubt about whether our current statistical tests actually do this well.
  2. Randomized trials are important because they help us learn about treatments that may not always work. They focus on safety as much as they do on finding effective solutions.
  3. The field of statistics needs to be clear about its purpose. We should distinguish between using statistics for proving theories and for practical decision-making like quality control.

The Shape of Stats to Come

arg min • 634 implied HN points • 10 Oct 24
🚌 Education Statistics Optimization Philosophy Data Analysis Mathematics
  1. Statistics often involves optimizing methods to get the best results. Many statistical techniques can actually be viewed as optimization problems.
  2. Choosing a statistical method isn't just about the math—it's also based on beliefs about reality. This philosophical side is important but often overlooked.
  3. There's a danger in relying too much on tools and models we can solve. Sometimes, we force the data to fit our preferred methods instead of being open to the actual complexities.

The Hall of Fame is about more than WAR

Silver Bulletin • 232 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
🎾 Sports Baseball Analytics Hall of Fame Player evaluation Statistics
  1. The Hall of Fame should consider many factors, not just one statistic like Wins Above Replacement (WAR). This means looking at achievements, player talent, and character too.
  2. Players might have high WAR scores but lack the greatness often associated with Hall of Fame status. For example, a consistent but average player shouldn't necessarily be in the Hall over a standout who had fewer career years.
  3. Voters for the Hall of Fame are required to consider a player's overall impact, including postseason performances and fan appeal. This makes it a more complex decision than just focusing on statistics.

Designed Interactions

arg min • 257 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24
🚌 Education Statistics Optimization Mathematics Machine Learning
  1. Experiment design is about choosing the right measurements to get useful data while reducing errors. It's important in various fields, including medical imaging and randomized trials.
  2. Statistics play a big role in how we analyze and improve measurement processes. They help us understand the noise in our data and guide us in making our experiments more reliable.
  3. Optimization is all about finding the best way to minimize errors in our designs. It's a practical approach rather than just seeking perfection, and we need to accept that some questions might remain unanswered.

Convex Optimization at the Midpoint

arg min • 198 implied HN points • 17 Oct 24
🚌 Education Optimization Programming Statistics Algorithms
  1. Modeling is really important in optimization classes. It's better to teach students how to set up real problems instead of just focusing on abstract theories.
  2. Introducing programming assignments earlier can help students understand optimization better. Using tools like cvxpy can make solving problems easier without needing to know all the underlying algorithms.
  3. Convex optimization is heavily used in statistics, but there's not much focus on control systems. Adding a section on control applications could help connect optimization with current interests in machine learning.

TPRR check-in: Who has made strides earning volume so far?

Stealing Signals • 599 implied HN points • 03 Oct 24
🎾 Sports Football Analytics Statistics Data Performance
  1. Routes data is really important for understanding how well players are performing. Different sources measure these routes in different ways, which can create confusion.
  2. The NFL has started providing its own routes data, which could help standardize how we analyze player performance. This might make comparisons easier and clearer moving forward.
  3. Stats like TPRR (Targets Per Route Run) help us understand player efficiency, but they need to be used alongside other context like player roles and QB performance for better insights.

Inverse Problems

arg min • 515 implied HN points • 03 Oct 24
🔬 Science Mathematics Statistics Physics Engineering Computer Science
  1. Inverse problems help us create images or models from measurements, like how a CT scan builds a picture of our insides using X-rays.
  2. A key part of working with inverse problems is using linear models, which means we can express our measurements and the related image or signal in straightforward mathematical terms.
  3. Choosing the right functions to handle noise and image characteristics is crucial because it guides how the algorithm makes sense of the data we collect.

The One and the Many

The Fry Corner • 21522 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
🎭️ Culture Theater Philosophy Psychology Politics Statistics
  1. Groups of people can behave in predictable ways, even if individuals within those groups act randomly. This means we can anticipate the behavior of a crowd better than that of a single person.
  2. Statistics play a big role in predicting risks and behaviors. For example, actuarial tables help insurance companies set rates based on the likelihood of certain events, regardless of the reasons behind those probabilities.
  3. There is often a disconnect between how we view groups of people versus individuals. While we might feel negatively about humanity as a whole, we tend to appreciate and trust the individuals we meet in our daily lives.

The YouTube Thumbnail for This Would Be "POCH OUT?!?!?! FRAUD WATCH???"

No Grass in the Clouds • 159 implied HN points • 16 Oct 24
🎾 Sports Football Coaching Analysis Statistics
  1. Pochettino's current U.S. team is not as strong as the teams he previously coached, with a much lower market value.
  2. Key players like Pulisic and McKennie didn't fully participate in recent games, impacting the team's performance.
  3. The expected outcome of the games against Panama and Mexico matched reality, showing that even a great coach can't win with limited resources.

The 2024 True Sack Rate (TSR): Week 7 Update

Trench Warfare • 79 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🎾 Sports Football Statistics Player analysis Performance Metrics
  1. The True Sack Rate (TSR) is a system that evaluates sacks by defensive linemen based on how they earned those sacks. It breaks down sacks into categories, helping to better evaluate a player’s skill and performance.
  2. There are four types of sacks in the TSR, ranging from rare high-quality wins over elite blockers to more common 'cleanup' sacks that are less about skill. This helps to highlight which players are truly impactful in games.
  3. Currently, top players in the TSR have recorded impressive sack scores, showcasing their effectiveness this season. Studying their performance can give fans deeper insights into who stands out on the field.

An Inversion Cookbook

arg min • 297 implied HN points • 04 Oct 24
🚌 Education Mathematics Statistics Optimization Regression Data science
  1. Using modularity, we can tackle many inverse problems by turning them into convex optimization problems. This helps us use simple building blocks to solve complex issues.
  2. Linear models can be a good approximation for many situations, and if we rely on them, we can find clear solutions to our inverse problems. However, we should be aware that they don't always represent reality perfectly.
  3. Different regression techniques, like ordinary least squares and LASSO, allow us to handle noise and sparse data effectively. Tuning the right parameters can help us balance accuracy and manageability in our models.

Evaluating a Sitting Senator's Healthcare Claims

Cremieux Recueil • 392 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Healthcare Legislation Government Public Health Statistics
  1. Senator Chris Murphy made strong claims about healthcare causing deaths in the U.S. but lacked accurate data to back them up. It's important for public officials to use correct statistics when discussing serious issues.
  2. Many deaths in America are unrelated to insurance denials, especially for people over age 65 who are mostly covered by Medicare. This shows that the healthcare system isn't as profit-driven in these cases as Senator Murphy suggested.
  3. Studies have shown that expanding access to healthcare has only small effects on overall mortality. Claims about thousands of deaths caused by lack of care might be greatly exaggerated.

2023 Excess Mortality Positively Associated With COVID Vaccination Rates

Igor’s Newsletter • 10770 implied HN points • 28 Jan 24
🏥 Health Politics COVID-19 Vaccination Mortality Statistics Analysis
  1. The study found a positive association between excess mortality and COVID vaccination rates in 2023.
  2. The real-world data suggests that COVID vaccines may increase excess mortality instead of decreasing it.
  3. Excess mortality in 2023 was somewhat lower than in 2022, but the reasons are not fully understood.

Liverpool Without Jurgen Klopp: Still Pretty Good!

No Grass in the Clouds • 119 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
🎾 Sports Soccer Coaching Statistics Player Performance Tactics
  1. Liverpool is performing well even without their former coach Jurgen Klopp. They have adapted their game style to focus on quality shots rather than long-range attempts.
  2. The team has been effective in creating high-quality chances during matches, especially when leading. This shows a strategic approach to controlling the game.
  3. Defensively, they have given up fewer chances this season, indicating improved defensive strategies. However, they tend to concede more when holding a big lead, which may suggest a tactical choice.

True Pressure Rate (TPR): Week 6 Update

Trench Warfare • 79 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24
🎾 Sports Football Analytics Player evaluation Defense Statistics
  1. True Pressure Rate (TPR) is a new tool for evaluating pass-rushers that focuses on the quality of pressures, not just the amount. This helps to understand who the best defenders really are.
  2. Pressures are categorized into three quality levels: Rare High Quality, High Quality, and Low Quality. This classification provides deeper insight into a player's performance and effectiveness.
  3. The Pressure Quality Ratio (PQR) compares high-quality pressures to low-quality ones. This helps identify players who may not have a lot of pressures but are still working hard and making an impact.

Gene-environment interactions: ubiquitous yet undetectable

The Infinitesimal • 359 implied HN points • 21 Aug 24
🔬 Science Genetics Health Environment Statistics Evolution
  1. Gene-environment interactions (GxE) are common but hard to identify in humans. They show how genetic traits can change in different environments, affecting how we understand traits like obesity or education.
  2. There are different models to explain how genes and environments work together. Some models show that environments can amplify or change the effects of multiple genetic variants on traits.
  3. Research has found that environmental factors, like socioeconomic status or education quality, can significantly influence how genetic variations are expressed, meaning genetics alone doesn't tell the whole story about traits.

UPDATE: The truth about Target 

Popular Information • 11556 implied HN points • 31 Oct 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Retail Senators Statistics Crime
  1. Target closed stores due to theft, but data showed lower levels of theft in those locations.
  2. Retailers like Target may be using theft to cover up other issues affecting their businesses.
  3. The cost of organized retail crime is a small fraction of total retail losses, with operational errors and employee theft accounting for the majority of shrink.

Chess and the number e

A Piece of the Pi: mathematics explained • 163 implied HN points • 16 Dec 24
🔬 Science Mathematics Combinatorics Statistics Game Theory Logic
  1. The number e, around 2.718, plays a big role in math, especially in combinatorial problems like derangements. This is when items are arranged so that none are in their original position.
  2. In chess, setting up nonattacking rooks can be related to derangements. The chance that none of them land on the main diagonal equals about 36.8%, which links back to the number e.
  3. Recent studies have also looked at how many safe squares remain on a chessboard when placing random pieces. As more pieces are added, the proportion of safe squares follows certain patterns connected to e.

Rodri Vs. Pep Guardiola: Who Ya' Got?

No Grass in the Clouds • 99 implied HN points • 04 Oct 24
🎾 Sports Soccer Player analysis Team performance Statistics Trends
  1. Rodri is a key player for Manchester City, showing impressive skills in tackles, passes, and goals. He's unique in the modern game.
  2. There are rankings for the best American and Premier League soccer players, showcasing talent from different leagues.
  3. There's buzz around players like Erling Haaland potentially reaching high goal tallies in a season, while other players are gaining attention for their performances.

Data Science Weekly - Issue 562

Data Science Weekly Newsletter • 179 implied HN points • 29 Aug 24
🕹 Technology Data science Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning Data Engineering Statistics
  1. Distributed systems are changing a lot. This affects how we operate and program these systems, making them more secure and easier to manage.
  2. Statistics are really important in everyday life, even if we don't see it. Talks this year aim to inspire students to understand and appreciate statistics better.
  3. Understanding how AI models work internally is a growing field. Many AI systems are complex, and researchers want to learn how they make decisions and produce outputs.

Reverse Genetic Systems

A Biologist's Guide to Life • 58 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
🔬 Science Biology Virology Genetics Statistics
  1. There are two main theories about the origin of SARS-CoV-2: one is that it came from animal trade, and the other is that it originated in a lab. Each theory has its own set of details that scientists are still investigating.
  2. Understanding the origins of the virus requires knowledge of both biology and complex statistical methods. These methods help researchers weigh the evidence carefully, which is crucial for arriving at the most likely explanation.
  3. The evidence increasingly suggests that the virus may have come from a lab, especially noting the features like the furin cleavage site that were put into a reverse genetic system. This raises important questions about how we study viruses and their potential risks.

What is The Infinitesimal?

The Infinitesimal • 499 implied HN points • 05 Jul 24
🔬 Science Genetics Research Behavior Heritability Statistics
  1. Human traits are influenced by many tiny genetic factors, making understanding them complex. This means small changes in genetics can impact our traits in different ways.
  2. Talking about nature versus nurture isn't simple; both genetics and environment play big roles. There's often a mix of many genes working together rather than clear-cut definitions.
  3. The concept of heritability is tricky and often debated. Different studies can show very different results about how much genetics affect things like intelligence or behavior.

Some notes on assortative mating

The Infinitesimal • 339 implied HN points • 23 Jul 24
🔬 Science Genetics Evolution Statistics Heritability
  1. Assortative mating happens when partners select each other based on certain traits, like height or education, making their children more genetically similar over generations.
  2. This type of mating can lead to increased genetic variance in the population, but does not change the genetic variance within families because the parent's traits balance out among the children.
  3. When estimating heritability or variance, it’s important to use the right approach. Population-level estimates can be misleading if based on family data, and vice versa.

Data Science Weekly - Issue 559

Data Science Weekly Newsletter • 219 implied HN points • 08 Aug 24
🕹 Technology Data science AI Machine Learning Software Development Statistics
  1. Camera calibration is crucial in sports analysis. It helps track players' movements accurately by mapping video frame positions to real field locations.
  2. Understanding the context of data is important for responsible data work. Datasets need good documentation and stories to highlight their historical and social backgrounds.
  3. There's a new, free encyclopedia for learning about cognitive science. It offers easy-to-read articles on various topics for students and researchers.

Willful ignorance of the male suicide crisis

Of Boys and Men • 495 implied HN points • 10 Oct 24
🏥 Health Politics Mental health Public Policy Gender Issues Statistics
  1. Many reports on suicide focus too much on girls, giving the impression that they are at a higher risk, which is misleading. In fact, most suicides among teenagers involve boys.
  2. The media often discusses the feelings of sadness and suicidal thoughts in girls but fails to provide clear statistics on the actual suicide rates by gender. This can create confusion about who is really most at risk.
  3. It's essential to acknowledge the growing suicide crisis among young men and include accurate data in discussions to better address mental health issues for everyone. We need to talk about both boys and girls honestly.

Free Friday: Choose the Hall of Famer

JoeBlogs • 2044 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
🎾 Sports Football Baseball Basketball Hall of Fame Statistics
  1. The game 'Choose the Hall of Famer' challenges perceptions about player value based on stats and accomplishments.
  2. Comparison between players like Jim Plunkett and Joe Namath shows that stats alone may not dictate Hall of Fame worthiness.
  3. Analyzing players like Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds reveals how defensive contributions can impact Hall of Fame considerations.

Perils of Flawed Meta-Analytic Methodology

The Shores of Academia • 39 implied HN points • 03 Oct 24
🔬 Science Health Research Statistics Psychology Methodology
  1. Flawed meta-analysis can mix different studies that aren't similar, making it hard to draw clear conclusions about their effects on things like mental health.
  2. It’s important for researchers to look at specific impacts and not just assume that a random-effects model explains everything. Understanding the differences in outcomes can lead to better insights.
  3. Proper analysis in studies is really important, especially when people's health is at risk. Ignoring negative findings can mislead people about the safety of products like drugs.

Chutes, ladders, and Markov chains

A Piece of the Pi: mathematics explained • 72 implied HN points • 04 Dec 24
🚌 Education Mathematics Statistics Game Theory Probability Teaching
  1. The game of Chutes and Ladders is a fun example of a Markov chain. It shows how the next move depends only on where you are now, not on how you got there.
  2. There are different types of game boards, some allow for winning while others can trap players forever. Ultimately winnable boards guarantee that a player can reach the end if they keep playing.
  3. On average, players need about 39 spins to win the game, and surprisingly, most random boards created will still offer a winning chance.

Tormented by an Urn

rachaelmeager • 535 implied HN points • 04 Jun 24
🚌 Education Teaching Learning Mathematics Statistics Philosophy
  1. The Polya urn model, though simple at first glance, reveals the complexity of statistics and emphasizes the importance of understanding problems deeply before attempting to solve them.
  2. Teaching and learning in math are not just about facts; they require creativity and passion to engage students, much like how poets perceive deeper meanings in their art.
  3. There is a strong connection between the arts and sciences, where both disciplines can benefit from understanding each other, and students should learn foundational concepts in both to grasp the complexities of the world.