Phillips’s Newsletter

Phillips’s Newsletter primarily focuses on the ongoing Russo-Ukraine War, offering detailed updates, strategic analyses, and reflections on domestic and international politics affecting the conflict. It provides insights into military operations, the impact of political decisions, and broader geopolitical implications while occasionally touching on US politics and strategic history.

Russo-Ukraine War International Politics Military Strategy Geopolitical Implications US Politics Strategic/Military History

The hottest Substack posts of Phillips’s Newsletter

And their main takeaways

The Six Big Questions of 2025

81 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Conflict International relations Defense Strategies
  1. Ukraine is increasing its long-range weapons to target Russia more effectively. This means they are ready for deeper strikes, which could change the dynamics of the conflict.
  2. The focus will be on military production from both sides in 2025. This could determine who has the upper hand in the ongoing war.
  3. There are key questions that need answers to understand how the war will unfold in 2025. These questions are critical for predicting the future events in the conflict.

2024 Year in Review (Part 2)

85 implied HN points • 26 Dec 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Conflict Military International relations Diplomacy
  1. Ukraine's Kursk offensive showed that surprises are still possible in modern warfare. This campaign was unexpected and changed the course of their struggle.
  2. In the first half of 2024, Ukraine faced tough challenges due to reduced U.S. aid and heavy losses in battles. However, they adapted and found ways to fight back effectively.
  3. The Russian military strategy of micro-advances faced setbacks, allowing Ukraine to regroup and launch a strong counter-offensive later in the year.

Weekend Update #108: Ukrainian Ranged Strike is Authorized--But so far is Limited.

167 implied HN points • 24 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Military Aid Nuclear Threats International relations Conflict analysis
  1. Ukraine can now use US weapons for long-range strikes against Russian military targets, but there are strict limits on how they can be used. They have very few missiles available, which could limit their effectiveness in the ongoing war.
  2. Putin has reacted strongly to these developments, claiming he might escalate the conflict and use nuclear weapons. However, experts believe he is unlikely to act against NATO because it could further harm Russia's position in the war.
  3. The US is sending anti-personnel land mines to Ukraine, a controversial decision given their historical dangers to civilians. This move shows how the changing nature of warfare has made these weapons seem more necessary.

Weeked Update #109: Ukrainian Land for NATO?

132 implied HN points • 01 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Military Strategy Elections International relations Legislation
  1. Ukrainian President Zelensky suggested that Ukraine might consider giving up some territory in exchange for NATO membership. This could stop the current fighting but raises big legal questions about land ownership.
  2. There's some hope for Ukraine supporters with Trump's recent choice of Keith Kellogg as his Ukraine envoy. Kellogg is known for wanting to continue aid to Ukraine, but his overall influence may be limited.
  3. Ukraine has started limited attacks on Russian military targets. This may help them hold onto strategic areas, but it's still too early to tell how it will affect the conflict's direction.

Would Europe Be Better Off Without NATO?

103 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Security Studies European Politics Geopolitical Strategy
  1. Some people think NATO is very important for Europe, but others believe Europe should think about defending itself without relying on NATO.
  2. There are worries that NATO might not protect European interests and could even make things worse for Europe in a changing world.
  3. Many believe Europe should not ignore global threats and that it needs to rethink its security and defense strategies for the future.
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We Should Be in the French Moment

79 implied HN points • 20 Dec 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Foreign Policy Geopolitics Leadership
  1. France has a historical vision for strong leadership in Europe, which includes being independent from other powers like the USA.
  2. In the past, French leaders wanted to build the country's economic and military strength, especially its nuclear capabilities.
  3. Currently, there seems to be a hesitation in France to fully step into the role of leadership, even in a moment that could be significant for the country.

Weekend Update #107: Some Leaders Wants to Tell Ukraine What Peace Means for Ukraine

147 implied HN points • 17 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Elections Negotiations Leadership Conflict
  1. Some leaders are trying to negotiate peace for Ukraine without actually involving Ukrainians. This approach can weaken Ukraine's position and undermine their needs.
  2. There are three types of people in Trump's potential cabinet regarding Ukraine: those who support it, those who have flipped to anti-Ukraine views, and those who have always opposed it. This could affect future U.S. support for Ukraine.
  3. Russia's economy is struggling and might face more problems in 2025. If Ukraine stays supported by its allies, it could win the war, but it will need that help to get through.

2024 Year in Review: Part 1

80 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Conflict analysis War Studies
  1. In 2023, the key lesson was that traditional land warfare strategies used by the US and NATO are not effective in the Russo-Ukraine War. This suggests a need for new approaches to combat.
  2. The events of the Battle of Bakhmut and Ukraine's counteroffensive highlighted the unique challenges of this conflict. They show that each situation may require different tactics than previously thought.
  3. As we look at the first half of 2024, understanding these lessons will be crucial for future military strategies and actions in not just Ukraine, but potentially for NATO as well.

Weekend Update #106: The World Has Changed, the Battlefield Not so Much

163 implied HN points • 10 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trump Elections Ukraine Foreign Policy War
  1. Trump's return to power raises concerns about U.S. support for Ukraine. It's unclear how his leadership will impact the ongoing war.
  2. The U.S. can't control the war's outcome alone; Europe must step up and take a more active role in supporting Ukraine.
  3. Despite Russian losses mounting, they are still trying to gain ground in Ukraine. The situation remains dire for civilians facing aggressive attacks.

Lets All Blame Ukraine: The Whitewash Gets Nasty

115 implied HN points • 29 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Debate Military Aid Foreign Relations Government Accountability Public Perception
  1. People in Washington are trying to cover up their failures regarding Ukraine. They are shifting the blame instead of taking responsibility.
  2. Ukraine is facing problems because it doesn't want to risk its future by sending more soldiers into a tough war.
  3. The argument has turned nasty, as some are blaming Ukraine for being cautious, even when they are the ones suffering heavy losses.

What Europe is Missing.

115 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
🌍 World Politics Defense Policy International relations European Politics Security Studies Geopolitics
  1. European countries are starting to talk about their own military actions, especially regarding Ukraine. This shows a shift in how they view their defense responsibilities.
  2. There's a question about whether Europe can really defend itself without support from the USA. Many believe that it's not just about ability, but also mindset.
  3. The main issue isn't capability; it's whether European nations can picture themselves being independent in defense matters. It's more about perception than actual strength.

Trump Whispering and Ukraine

86 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Election Dynamics Foreign Policy Public Opinion Media influence
  1. People are too hopeful about Trump’s new ideas on Ukraine. It's based more on wishes than what he actually says.
  2. We should pay attention to Trump’s actual statements about Ukraine to understand his real thoughts. His words now are not much different from what he said before the election.
  3. Some recent comments from Trump on Ukraine might be more serious than people think. It's important to really look at what he means.

A Senior Republican Speaks : 2

122 implied HN points • 21 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political parties Elections Foreign Policy GOP Trump Era
  1. Trump united various groups of dissatisfied citizens, which helped him win the election. The Democrats missed the mark by focusing on less relevant issues instead of the economy and safety.
  2. The future of the GOP looks very much like Trump; the party is shifting towards more extreme policies. It may take a long time for this coalition to change as it's becoming more entrenched.
  3. Trump's approach to foreign policy, especially regarding aid to Ukraine and relationships with NATO and China, is likely to become less conventional. He might focus more on making deals rather than traditional alliances.

Weekend Update #104: Georgia Shows Why Ukraine Must Win

177 implied HN points • 27 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Democracy Foreign Policy Political parties Military Affairs
  1. Democracy is fragile, as shown by the situation in Georgia where a government can manipulate elections and suppress dissent to maintain power. This highlights the importance of being vigilant to protect democratic systems.
  2. The fight for Ukraine's freedom is crucial for the future of democracy in Europe. If Ukraine loses, it could lead to a worsening decline of democratic values across the continent.
  3. There are concerning connections between certain political movements in the U.S. and leaders who support authoritarian regimes. This could influence U.S. foreign policy and the support for Ukraine in its struggle against Russian aggression.

The Great Whitewash is Starting

133 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Biden administration Ukraine conflict Political critique Government Accountability
  1. The Biden administration's foreign policy regarding Ukraine has been seen as a major failure, wasting a chance to enhance global stability.
  2. After the start of the invasion in 2022, the U.S. response was too cautious and led to prolonged conflict, drawing in multiple global regions.
  3. There are concerns that the administration is attempting to rewrite its failures to protect its reputation, similar to controversial actions from the previous administration.

Weekend Update #103: North Korea shows itself to be a Great Ally

177 implied HN points • 20 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Military Strategy International relations Security Geopolitics
  1. North Korean combat troops may soon join Russia in the Ukraine war, which could change the dynamics on the battlefield. Ukraine's leaders believe over 10,000 troops are being prepared to fight.
  2. Despite claims of rapid Russian advances, the actual progress on the ground has been minimal, raising concerns about the strategy of limiting support for Ukraine. The slow pace of advances suggests a grinding war continues.
  3. President Zelensky has proposed a five-point victory strategy for Ukraine, but there is little support from Western allies, particularly the US, making the situation challenging for Ukraine as it seeks increased military aid.

What Europe Can do in a Worst-Case Scenario

83 implied HN points • 05 Dec 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Geopolitics Conflict Studies Diplomacy
  1. European countries need to carefully consider their actions in the ongoing Ukraine war. Their support is crucial and impacts the situation significantly.
  2. The Trump administration's plans for Ukraine lack solid security guarantees. This may put European states in a tough spot, as they might have to back plans that don't benefit them or Ukraine.
  3. Many of Trump's proposed peace plans for Ukraine have been evident for a while. Understanding these plans early can help Europe prepare for possible outcomes.

Weekend Update #105: Vote for Harris because She is Best for the USA, not because She is Best for Ukraine (though She is Best for Ukraine)

140 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Democracy International relations Political Analysis Public Opinion
  1. Voting for Kamala Harris is crucial because she prioritizes the interests of the USA, which also aligns with supporting Ukraine. It's about choosing a leader who stands for democracy and international law.
  2. Current U.S. aid to Ukraine has been essential, but there's a stark difference between candidates, with some wanting to cut support and others committed to helping Ukraine.
  3. The involvement of North Korean troops in Russia signals a dangerous escalation, highlighting the need for a strong response from Ukraine's allies to ensure stability in the region.

What if the USA is about to Become an Ally of Putin?

113 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Government Foreign Policy Political parties Legislation
  1. Donald Trump has appointed Rep. Tulsi Gabbard as the next Director of National Intelligence. This move raises questions about how the US might shift its foreign policy.
  2. Tulsi Gabbard has a mixed history with war; she opposes some conflicts while supporting others. Her stance seems to protect certain dictators like Bashar Assad, which has drawn criticism.
  3. Gabbard's alignment with controversial figures could suggest a potential change in US alliances, making the idea of becoming an ally of Putin more plausible. Overall, this situation could reshape global politics significantly.

Weekend Update #102: Bad News and Good News

174 implied HN points • 13 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Foreign Policy National Security Political Commentary Military Affairs
  1. Ukrainians feel worried about their support from the U.S. as the upcoming presidential election could lead to less aid if Trump wins. There's a real fear of feeling abandoned during the war.
  2. Despite their worries, Ukraine is showing strong efforts in their military strategy by successfully attacking Russian supply lines, demonstrating they can hit key targets effectively.
  3. America's support for Ukraine remains uncertain, with some leaders expressing no appetite for further aid. This makes it hard for Ukraine to feel secure as they fight for their independence.

US Authorizes (limited) Long-Range Strike

102 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Military International relations Foreign Policy Defense
  1. The Biden Administration has allowed Ukraine to use US long-range strike systems, which is a significant approval after many months of conflict.
  2. President Zelensky emphasized that actions, not announcements, will define their response, implying that military actions will soon take place.
  3. There are still many unanswered questions about this decision, and its impact may depend on future developments and limitations imposed on Ukraine.

The USA is Trump's Now, Europe Must Get Ready

119 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Foreign Policy NATO Military Leadership
  1. Trump is becoming president again with a strong majority, and this changes things for Europe. They need to prepare for new challenges ahead.
  2. Trump's stance on NATO could make the alliance less effective. US forces might not defend Europe if Trump doesn't want them to.
  3. European leaders might try to win Trump over, but it's uncertain if it will work. They need to face the reality that things cannot stay the same.

Weekend Update #101: Biden throws in the Towel

172 implied HN points • 06 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Government Policy Leadership International relations
  1. Biden has made a significant decision that may indicate a change in direction for his administration. It's important to keep an eye on how this will affect his leadership and policies going forward.
  2. There is a focus on the importance of support for Harris, emphasising her role in future plans. Her success seems crucial for the party's strategy.
  3. Stoltenberg acknowledged a mistake regarding Ukraine's strategy, hinting at a need for reassessment. This shows that there are ongoing challenges that require careful handling.

Latest Piece Out in the Atlantic: Biden's Catastrophe

69 implied HN points • 30 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis Foreign Relations Political critique Government International Affairs
  1. The Biden Administration's approach to Ukraine has been unsuccessful and has made the world a more dangerous place.
  2. This failure has weakened the United States and its position in global affairs.
  3. The author shared a first draft of the article to give readers insight into what was eventually published in The Atlantic.

War Games and Nuclear Weapons: A Modest Proposal

61 implied HN points • 03 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics War Strategy Nuclear policy Political Commentary International relations
  1. War games involving nuclear weapons should reflect real-life consequences so players appreciate the seriousness of their actions. This means making it personal, such as considering how decisions could affect family and friends.
  2. Current war games often feel detached from reality, as players can drop bombs and then return to their normal lives without any real stakes. This disconnect makes players less aware of the real-world implications of their choices.
  3. Introducing more realistic scenarios in war games could lead to deeper understanding and conversation about the impact of nuclear warfare, making it a topic people take more seriously.

Trump and Ukraine: Best Case/Worst Case

81 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Foreign Policy Political Analysis
  1. Trump's opinions about Ukraine can change quickly. He may decide how to act based on what he feels benefits him at the moment.
  2. There are mixed feelings among Republicans about how Trump will handle Ukraine. Some support Ukraine, but others are more sympathetic to Putin.
  3. Trump has a history of distrust towards Ukraine and a preference for Russia. This is unlikely to change even if he becomes president again.

Military Metrics and the Russian 2024 Offensive

103 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy International relations Conflict analysis Geopolitics War reporting
  1. How a war is presented can greatly influence public perception. It's important to understand that not everything shown in the media represents the true situation on the ground.
  2. Recent reports highlight Russian advances in Ukraine, which may create the impression of inevitable success. However, these reports can sometimes be misleading or exaggerated.
  3. Understanding military metrics and outcomes requires looking beyond flashy maps and headlines. A deeper analysis can provide a clearer picture of the actual progress in a conflict.

Election Update #12: Is the Democratic Enthusiasm Advantage Already Showing Up?

83 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voter Turnout Political trends Polling Demographics
  1. Many people have already voted, showing a lot of early engagement. This trend is higher compared to most past elections, but still lower than during the pandemic in 2020.
  2. Women are leading in turnout, especially in key swing states. Their participation could play a big role in this election's outcome.
  3. The current election feels more like recent years (2022) than the previous presidential elections (2016, 2020). Polling predictions may not fully capture this shift in voter sentiment.

Are North Korean Troops Fighting for Russia a Sign of "Desperation"?

86 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Military Affairs Geopolitics Conflict Studies National Security
  1. North Korean troops are now confirmed to be fighting for Russia in Ukraine. This development shows the lengths Russia is going to in order to sustain its military efforts.
  2. While Ukraine’s allies seem uncertain about how to best support them, Putin is making bold moves, like bringing in North Koreans, to try and gain an advantage.
  3. Putin’s decisions can often backfire. For instance, his direct attacks in the Kharkiv offensive were seen as strategic mistakes that did not pay off.

Zelensky's Five Point Plan is Asking for Ukraine to be Treated like a Normal, Sovereign European State

92 implied HN points • 16 Oct 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Sovereignty Defense Policy Foreign Aid Geopolitics
  1. Zelensky presented a five-point plan to emphasize Ukraine's right to be treated like any other European country. This is about making Ukraine part of the normal conversation in Europe.
  2. His plan includes reasonable requests for defense support and economic partnerships, which are common for democratic nations. It shows he is not asking for special treatment.
  3. The straightforward nature of his asks indicates a balanced approach, suggesting Ukraine seeks its rightful place in Europe without making extreme demands.

Europe/Germany Has Failed (Because Ukraine Did Better Than Expected)

91 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24
🌍 World Politics International relations European Politics National Security Military Strategy Geopolitics
  1. Europe has struggled to respond effectively to major challenges, leading to divisions and inaction among its countries and institutions.
  2. The 'Zeitenwende' speech by Germany's Chancellor Scholz marked a significant moment, but it hasn't led to the expected changes in Europe's stance after the invasion of Ukraine.
  3. There are doubts about whether Europe can succeed as a united entity in the face of these challenges, especially when relying on external influences to force action.

Election Update #11: The race hasn't "narrowed"

80 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Data Analysis Political trends Campaigns
  1. Trump's support may be increasing, or Harris is holding her lead steady. It's not clear which one is happening right now.
  2. Polls show that despite some recent changes, Harris's overall lead is still solid according to longer-term trends.
  3. Even though the numbers seem to be tightening, this election still has one of the most stable polling environments in US history.

Election Update #10 Harris Bounces Back

75 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Media Political strategy Public Opinion
  1. Recently, there's been a boost in confidence about Harris' campaign, even though it might not be fully backed by solid evidence.
  2. It's important to be aware of your media bubble. It can shape what stories you see and make you believe things that might not be true.
  3. Trusting only the sources that confirm what you want to believe can lead to being misled, so it's good to check various viewpoints.

The Short War Illusion: The Real US Achilles Heel

80 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Defense Policy International relations Military Strategy Geopolitics Security Studies
  1. Many people wrongly believe that wars will end quickly, but history shows us that's often not the case. Thinking a war will wrap up in a few days is a dangerous illusion.
  2. This 'short war' mindset has been repeated before, like during the start of World War I and the early stages of the Ukraine conflict. Such beliefs can lead to serious strategic mistakes.
  3. The U.S. defense industry currently faces challenges that could make quick victories unlikely, especially in potential conflicts with countries like China. It’s important to prepare for long-term engagements.

Election Update #9: No, Trump is Not Leading Now

67 implied HN points • 10 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polls Campaigns Political Analysis Public Opinion
  1. Polls can make people feel either hopeful or scared. Some people focus on good polls, while others worry about bad ones.
  2. Currently, there isn't much change happening in the election race. Even events that seemed impactful didn't really alter the polling results significantly.
  3. It's important to avoid getting too excited or too worried about polls. Small shifts don't always mean big changes in the election outcome.

Weekend Update #71: Was this the Week Reflexive Control Broke?

140 implied HN points • 09 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics Ukraine Europe United States Russia Military
  1. Important European leaders, like Macron, are breaking free from Russian control in defining security interests
  2. US politics show Trump's increased influence, potentially affecting aid decisions regarding Ukraine
  3. Ukraine launched a mass UAV attack on Russian soil, indicating advancements in capabilities and preparation for future attacks

Weekend Update #68. Ukrainians Withdraw from Avdiivka

125 implied HN points • 18 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Ukraine US Public Opinion
  1. The Ukrainians withdrew from Avdiivka after holding out for more than 4 months against Russian attacks, showing the impact of losing support from their main partner.
  2. US public support for aiding Ukraine remains strong, with a majority wanting to continue supporting Ukraine despite attempts to spin poll results in a negative light.
  3. A large majority of Americans are concerned about the war in Ukraine, anticipate it lasting years longer, and support ongoing aid to Ukraine, showcasing consistent public backing for these efforts.

Weekend Update #72: The Weimar Triangle

95 implied HN points • 17 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics Europe Ukraine Russia USA Military
  1. The Weimar Triangle, consisting of Macron, Scholz, and Tusk, plays a crucial role in determining Europe's support for Ukraine.
  2. Speaker Johnson's statements in Washington regarding aid for Ukraine lack concrete plans, leading to uncertainty.
  3. The actual war in Ukraine has seen the front line remain static, with Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries showing strategic promise.