The hottest Coalitions Substack posts right now

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Trump Has Had Enough of Tucker Carlson

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1117 implied HN points • 23 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Coalitions
  1. Trump has privately urged Tucker Carlson to stop attacking Israel because those attacks are splitting his coalition and could hurt his chances in the midterms and the next election.
  2. Carlson has openly condemned Israel’s response to the October 7 attacks, claimed Israel has outsized influence on U.S. policy, and even suggested a nuclear-armed Iran might stabilize the region, which has alienated many pro-Israel conservatives.
  3. A recent three-hour interview with Mike Huckabee, which some hoped would be a truce, instead opened a new front and deepened the rift between Carlson and pro-Israel MAGA influencers, worrying people close to Trump.

Stupid people in Baden-Württemberg hand massive electoral victory to the Greens so they can continue to sacrifice their industry to the weather gods

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 178 implied HN points • 09 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Coalitions
  1. The Greens narrowly won the Baden-Württemberg election and look set to lead the government, with the CDU a close second. This outcome likely means continued focus on green energy policies that critics say could hurt industrial competitiveness.
  2. The CDU’s campaign errors and its refusal to consider partnering with the AfD weakened its bargaining power, while the AfD made notable gains among workers. That shift is reshaping coalition possibilities and political leverage in the state.
  3. The SPD and FDP suffered heavy losses, shrinking centrist opposition and changing future coalition dynamics. Many observers blame past energy decisions, like the nuclear phase-out, for high electricity prices and long-term industrial decline.

Clavicular and the New Influencer Quietism

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 1779 implied HN points • 13 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Coalitions
  1. Trump’s appeal was personal and reshaped political coalitions, so his exit could cause a realignment rather than a smooth transfer of support to a successor.
  2. The 2024 coalition included unusual groups — tech elites, podcast audiences, alternative-health followers, and key swing-state voters — and those diverse constituencies may not back a new leader in the same way.
  3. Apolitical online influencers who push looks-focused self-improvement attract followers outside the left-right divide, so their indifference or future endorsements could meaningfully affect how coalitions form.

Why the Trump Coalition Is Cracking Up

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 616 implied HN points • 14 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Coalitions
  1. He’s dominating the world stage, but his authority inside the MAGA movement is quietly eroding.
  2. He built an unusually broad multi-faith conservative coalition, winning big support from evangelicals, Orthodox and observant Jews, many Catholics, and even some Muslim voters.
  3. That diverse coalition’s unity is fragile and now appears to be cracking, which could create domestic political problems even as he remains prominent internationally.

Lufthansa strike forces Hillary Clinton to take the purgatorial Deutsche Bahn to the Munich Security Conference just like everybody else

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 227 implied HN points • 13 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Coalitions
  1. The federal government is effectively paralysed and unable to pass needed reforms, with the CDU leadership lacking the will to break the deadlock.
  2. The party system has shifted: the left has fragmented and radicalised while the CDU has hollowed out, driving voters toward the AfD and making traditional coalition tactics increasingly crippling, especially in an election year.
  3. Everyday public services and infrastructure feel degraded — a Lufthansa strike forcing high-profile figures onto unreliable, dirty trains is a small but telling example of broader decline in competence and public experience.
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Zohran’s high-risk, high-reward strategy

Silver Bulletin • 247 implied HN points • 12 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Coalitions
  1. He mixes outsider, risk-taking politics with a cosmopolitan, media-friendly persona. He proudly calls himself a democratic socialist while also looking like the kind of NYC striver many young professionals like.
  2. His coalition is a strange mix: big margins in Muslim, Black, Hispanic and gentrified neighborhoods but weak with many Jewish, East Asian, and fiscally conservative voters. He won by just over 50 percent, so his majority looks fragile and might be hard to expand.
  3. He’s promising bold, transformative policies and says City Hall will act audaciously. But city institutions and political polarization — from the council and state legislature to the police and media — create veto points that could limit what he can actually achieve.

What's the Greens' ceiling?

Comment is Freed • 64 implied HN points • 20 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Coalitions
  1. The Greens doubled their support in 2025 from about 8% to roughly 16%, bringing them close to Labour nationally and even ahead in places like Wales.
  2. The UK’s first-past-the-post system combined with multi-party bloc politics means being first in your bloc makes you the default tactical choice. That's why Reform surged and why the Greens are now trying to become the main option for left-leaning voters.
  3. The Greens’ ability to climb into the mid-20s hinges on converting potential supporters who currently avoid ‘wasting’ a vote. That will require leadership policy shifts to broaden appeal and also depends on whether Labour changes strategy to stop the bleed.

Politics as Making Hardwood Furniture with Dull Tools: Mamdani's NYC Primary Win Is Not a Win, But Only an Uncertain High-Stakes Bet

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 246 implied HN points • 26 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Coalitions
  1. The Democratic primary doesn't really matter; it's just practice before the real election. Understanding this can help build better teams and avoid mistakes.
  2. Winning a primary is not the same as winning the general election. It's important to think about if the chosen candidate can actually win and do good things if elected.
  3. Politics is about creating connections and rallying support. Success comes from believing in new possibilities and building a team that represents diverse backgrounds and needs.

What It Took To Win

Unpopular Front • 164 implied HN points • 26 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Coalitions
  1. Politics can really surprise us, like when unexpected groups team up to support a candidate. We often think we know what voters want, but sometimes they just want change.
  2. Successful campaigns can connect with people across different backgrounds, showing that new leaders can inspire people who feel left out by traditional parties.
  3. The way politicians engage with voters is crucial. Meeting people in real life and using modern tools can create a strong connection, making it easier to rally support.

CDU and SPD condemned to betray their voters in the next Coalition of Failure, as Germans continue to abandon the cartel parties in droves

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 261 implied HN points • 24 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Coalitions
  1. Many voters in Germany are leaving the traditional political parties, like CDU and SPD, which might lead to them not representing their followers well in future coalitions.
  2. The election results showed a growing divide, with new parties rising in popularity while older ones, especially the SPD, faced major losses and changes in leadership.
  3. The AfD has gained significant support and could challenge the existing parties, suggesting a shift in the political landscape that might make future governance difficult.

How the German government collapsed and what will happen now

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 261 implied HN points • 09 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Coalitions
  1. The German government, known as the traffic light coalition, fell apart when Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired his finance minister. This left the coalition partners, the SPD and the Greens, struggling to move forward.
  2. The coalition had ambitious plans but ran out of money due to legal issues with their budget strategy. This led to rising energy prices and a loss of public support.
  3. Upcoming elections could change the political landscape, with the CDU likely to gain power. However, they face challenges in forming a stable government due to their refusal to work with the AfD.

POLLS CLOSED: First Election Prognoses Too Close to Call on Most Important Questions

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 169 implied HN points • 23 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Coalitions
  1. The election results are too close to call, making it hard to predict the outcome. This uncertainty means we'll have to wait for more counting before we know who really won.
  2. Some parties didn't do as well as expected while others performed better. It's surprising how quickly things can change in politics.
  3. Coalition possibilities are unclear because some smaller parties are close to the 5% threshold. This will impact how the bigger parties can team up to form a government.

The End of the Cordon Sanitaire

Gideon's Substack • 124 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Coalitions
  1. When political parties distance themselves from extreme groups, they might inadvertently empower those very groups. This creates a cycle where the extremes gain more influence in politics.
  2. Political coalitions often need to include groups they disagree with to gain power. This can lead to instability because the goals and values of these groups may not align.
  3. Ignoring the need for compromise can lead to fragmentation of political parties, making it harder to achieve any unity. Realizing this is crucial for facing the current challenges in politics.

What are the chances you’re right about everything?

Optimally Irrational • 42 implied HN points • 23 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Coalitions
  1. Political beliefs often come in bundles that can seem inconsistent. For example, people on the left might support social justice and climate change, while those on the right favor traditional values and small government.
  2. The way we form our political views isn't purely based on clear principles; often, they reflect the interests of various groups or coalitions. This means that people sometimes adopt positions based on their group rather than personal beliefs.
  3. It's unlikely that any of us are completely right about everything in politics. Our views can be influenced by bias and may not always align with our principles, so it’s important to stay humble and open-minded about differing opinions.

Why elections have surprised us in recent years

Optimally Irrational • 62 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Coalitions
  1. Political coalitions are really fragile. Just like a team can break up if members aren't happy, political alliances often change quickly too.
  2. Changes in voter demographics are not as predictable as they seem. For example, more minority voters don't always mean more power for one party because voter preferences can shift.
  3. Instability in coalitions can be actually good for democracy. It means different groups can team up and have a chance at winning, keeping the system fair.

Coalitions are everywhere

Optimally Irrational • 62 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
📖 Philosophy Coalitions
  1. Coalitions are important in human life. We often need to work together for defense, support, and to achieve bigger goals than we could alone.
  2. People really care about their social groups and belonging. Feeling excluded from a group can make us anxious or upset.
  3. Our reputation matters a lot in coalitions. How others see us can affect our ability to make friends or succeed in groups.

Trump's Neo-Fusionism

Unpopular Front • 70 implied HN points • 29 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Coalitions
  1. Trump's new approach, called Neo-Fusionism, mixes both national populism and libertarian ideas. This means he supports average people's values while also favoring some libertarian policies.
  2. There's a conflict between wanting a strong government to push Trump's agenda and the libertarian wish to reduce government power. This creates challenges in balancing these different beliefs.
  3. Understanding the different thinkers, like Rothbard and Francis, helps to explain the complexities and contradictions in Trump's coalition and overall politics.

As Alternative für Deutschland approach 40% support in East Germany, a right-leaning CDU faction announce plans to break away from the Union and found a new party that will cooperate with AfD

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 131 implied HN points • 06 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Coalitions
  1. Alternative für Deutschland is gaining significant support in East Germany, close to 40% in some states.
  2. A right-leaning CDU faction plans to break away and form a new party that will cooperate with AfD.
  3. This split could change the political landscape in Germany, with potential impact on the traditional parties.

Fun With Proportional Representation: German Edition

Gideon's Substack • 19 implied HN points • 18 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Coalitions
  1. In Germany's elections, small parties can greatly affect the outcomes for larger parties. Their ability to surpass the 5% vote threshold is crucial since it determines which parties can get seats in the government.
  2. Minor parties like the BSW and Linke can influence coalition options even if they don't join the next government. Their success or failure could shift power dynamics significantly in the Bundestag.
  3. Voting patterns can have unexpected results in proportional representation systems. A party's gains might help another party grow stronger, highlighting the complex nature of electoral outcomes.

Reading, Watching 01.21.24

Unpopular Front • 21 implied HN points • 21 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Coalitions
  1. The author discusses Sam Moyn's thoughts on modern manifestations of liberal patriotism.
  2. Moyn expresses qualms about support for Ukraine's efforts to fight off Russian aggression.
  3. The author suggests indulging in anti-fascism as a continuation of the Jacobin tradition.

Why does proportional representation in Parliament fail?

Demodexio • 0 implied HN points • 27 Dec 23
🌍 World Politics Coalitions
  1. Proportional representation often fails to offer voters choices that match their preferences.
  2. Some countries with proportional representation struggle with limited party options and fragmented political landscapes.
  3. Strong political parties are crucial for a healthy democracy, but exploring voting systems that allow more diversity could be beneficial.