The hottest Coalitions Substack posts right now

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Politics as Making Hardwood Furniture with Dull Tools: Mamdani's NYC Primary Win Is Not a Win, But Only an Uncertain High-Stakes Bet

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 192 implied HN points • 26 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Coalitions Political strategy Campaigns Political theory
  1. The Democratic primary doesn't really matter; it's just practice before the real election. Understanding this can help build better teams and avoid mistakes.
  2. Winning a primary is not the same as winning the general election. It's important to think about if the chosen candidate can actually win and do good things if elected.
  3. Politics is about creating connections and rallying support. Success comes from believing in new possibilities and building a team that represents diverse backgrounds and needs.

CDU and SPD condemned to betray their voters in the next Coalition of Failure, as Germans continue to abandon the cartel parties in droves

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 261 implied HN points • 24 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Parties Coalitions Voter Behavior Political trends
  1. Many voters in Germany are leaving the traditional political parties, like CDU and SPD, which might lead to them not representing their followers well in future coalitions.
  2. The election results showed a growing divide, with new parties rising in popularity while older ones, especially the SPD, faced major losses and changes in leadership.
  3. The AfD has gained significant support and could challenge the existing parties, suggesting a shift in the political landscape that might make future governance difficult.

POLLS CLOSED: First Election Prognoses Too Close to Call on Most Important Questions

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 169 implied HN points • 23 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Polling Government Coalitions
  1. The election results are too close to call, making it hard to predict the outcome. This uncertainty means we'll have to wait for more counting before we know who really won.
  2. Some parties didn't do as well as expected while others performed better. It's surprising how quickly things can change in politics.
  3. Coalition possibilities are unclear because some smaller parties are close to the 5% threshold. This will impact how the bigger parties can team up to form a government.

The End of the Cordon Sanitaire

Gideon's Substack • 124 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political parties Elections Coalitions Governance Populism
  1. When political parties distance themselves from extreme groups, they might inadvertently empower those very groups. This creates a cycle where the extremes gain more influence in politics.
  2. Political coalitions often need to include groups they disagree with to gain power. This can lead to instability because the goals and values of these groups may not align.
  3. Ignoring the need for compromise can lead to fragmentation of political parties, making it harder to achieve any unity. Realizing this is crucial for facing the current challenges in politics.

Fun With Proportional Representation: German Edition

Gideon's Substack • 19 implied HN points • 18 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Coalitions Parties Representation Voting
  1. In Germany's elections, small parties can greatly affect the outcomes for larger parties. Their ability to surpass the 5% vote threshold is crucial since it determines which parties can get seats in the government.
  2. Minor parties like the BSW and Linke can influence coalition options even if they don't join the next government. Their success or failure could shift power dynamics significantly in the Bundestag.
  3. Voting patterns can have unexpected results in proportional representation systems. A party's gains might help another party grow stronger, highlighting the complex nature of electoral outcomes.
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How the German government collapsed and what will happen now

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 261 implied HN points • 09 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Elections Political parties Coalitions Economic Policy
  1. The German government, known as the traffic light coalition, fell apart when Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired his finance minister. This left the coalition partners, the SPD and the Greens, struggling to move forward.
  2. The coalition had ambitious plans but ran out of money due to legal issues with their budget strategy. This led to rising energy prices and a loss of public support.
  3. Upcoming elections could change the political landscape, with the CDU likely to gain power. However, they face challenges in forming a stable government due to their refusal to work with the AfD.

Why elections have surprised us in recent years

Optimally Irrational • 62 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Coalitions Voting Demographics Political theory
  1. Political coalitions are really fragile. Just like a team can break up if members aren't happy, political alliances often change quickly too.
  2. Changes in voter demographics are not as predictable as they seem. For example, more minority voters don't always mean more power for one party because voter preferences can shift.
  3. Instability in coalitions can be actually good for democracy. It means different groups can team up and have a chance at winning, keeping the system fair.

Coalitions are everywhere

Optimally Irrational • 62 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
📖 Philosophy Game Theory Social Psychology Coalitions Human behavior Evolutionary Theory
  1. Coalitions are important in human life. We often need to work together for defense, support, and to achieve bigger goals than we could alone.
  2. People really care about their social groups and belonging. Feeling excluded from a group can make us anxious or upset.
  3. Our reputation matters a lot in coalitions. How others see us can affect our ability to make friends or succeed in groups.

Trump's Neo-Fusionism

Unpopular Front • 70 implied HN points • 29 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Conservatism Populism Libertarianism Political theory Coalitions
  1. Trump's new approach, called Neo-Fusionism, mixes both national populism and libertarian ideas. This means he supports average people's values while also favoring some libertarian policies.
  2. There's a conflict between wanting a strong government to push Trump's agenda and the libertarian wish to reduce government power. This creates challenges in balancing these different beliefs.
  3. Understanding the different thinkers, like Rothbard and Francis, helps to explain the complexities and contradictions in Trump's coalition and overall politics.

As Alternative für Deutschland approach 40% support in East Germany, a right-leaning CDU faction announce plans to break away from the Union and found a new party that will cooperate with AfD

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 131 implied HN points • 06 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Elections Political parties Conservatism Coalitions Political landscape
  1. Alternative für Deutschland is gaining significant support in East Germany, close to 40% in some states.
  2. A right-leaning CDU faction plans to break away and form a new party that will cooperate with AfD.
  3. This split could change the political landscape in Germany, with potential impact on the traditional parties.

Why does proportional representation in Parliament fail?

Demodexio • 0 implied HN points • 27 Dec 23
🌍 World Politics Parliament Coalitions Political parties Democracy
  1. Proportional representation often fails to offer voters choices that match their preferences.
  2. Some countries with proportional representation struggle with limited party options and fragmented political landscapes.
  3. Strong political parties are crucial for a healthy democracy, but exploring voting systems that allow more diversity could be beneficial.