The hottest Economic conditions Substack posts right now

The Fed's bias towards easing limits downside risk for Treasuries and equities.
Thursday's disinflation CPI report increases confidence in bearish tactical outlook.
Market expectations lean towards aggressive rate cuts rather than additional hikes.

Interest rate changes depend on both BOJ policy and financial market conditions, and a policy tweak is likely to result in a gradual, minor impact on rates.
BOJ's intention appears to be maintaining accommodative financial conditions by making small adjustments to policies like the overnight rate and yield curve control.
BOJ's decision-making process is influenced by the balance of risks in moving too early or too late, with a focus on clear evidence of sustained wage growth before significant policy changes.

Inflation is trending down, which may lead to a soft pivot by the Federal Reserve.
The base effect impacts inflation calculation, showing a downtrend in core inflation.
Following trends is crucial, but be cautious about liquidity risks, especially as a recession may be looming.

Russia is being viewed as more of a pariah state by the West, with more sanctions applied to it than North Korea.
Countries can deviate from the right path in history, as seen with Russia's shift in perception since 2008.
Financial markets and living standards are indicators of a country's reality, with Western sanctions impacting Russia's economy.

The stock market is currently experiencing euphoria due to factors like rising rates and quantitative tightening by the Fed, which seem counterintuitive to traditional market behavior.
Despite conventional economic conditions pointing in the opposite direction, the market is still skyrocketing, challenging previous predictions of a crash.
The author has identified two key factors propelling the market up, but foresees these influences potentially halting in the near future, possibly leading to a significant change in the market dynamics.

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