The hottest Investment decisions Substack posts right now

Measuring outcomes and impact alone can lead to gaming the system and disadvantages for the business
Team performance is often more important than individual performance, as seen in sports like soccer
Investing in engineering should be treated as research & development, making small bets and doubling down on promising ones

A balance sheet shows what a company owns and owes.
Assets, liabilities, and shareholders equity are the three main components of a balance sheet.
Interest coverage and net debt / free cash flow are important ratios to analyze a balance sheet.

Founders with deep understanding and passion for a market they know well can achieve success like turning an unsuccessful idea into a billion-dollar startup.
Building a product that solves a real problem, utilizing product-led growth, freemium model, strong focus on retention, and creating a unique brand can lead to rapid growth and success.
Investors prioritize market opportunity over market size, seeking startups that challenge conventions, address future needs, and have strategies for customer acquisition and profitability.

Financial conditions are getting looser, which is good for Bitcoin and risk assets.
There is very little stress in the financial system, and leverage levels are not extreme.
Despite expectations of a recession, the path seems clear for a proper bull market.

The Bitcoin ETFs capture rate is an important metric to track.
A high Bitcoins capture rate may drive the price of Bitcoin higher.
It's crucial to monitor the capture rate as the Grayscale situation settles down.

Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

Inflation is trending down, which may lead to a soft pivot by the Federal Reserve.
The base effect impacts inflation calculation, showing a downtrend in core inflation.
Following trends is crucial, but be cautious about liquidity risks, especially as a recession may be looming.

External forces, like customer demands and government pressure, strongly impact business decisions. Companies need to pay attention to these forces but shouldn't let them dictate every choice.
Ford's push into electric vehicles has faced challenges, including a drop in consumer demand and high costs. This has led to significant financial losses for the company.
Too much reliance on external influences can lead to poor decisions. It's important for businesses to balance external pressures with their own strategic goals.

The Fermi problem approach helps estimate the impact of new product features by breaking it into smaller questions. This method allows for better understanding and clearer predictions.
Using rough estimates based on educated guesses provides range estimates instead of precise answers, which can help account for uncertainty in projections.
Continuous refinement of estimates with new data allows for adjustments, creating more credible and strategic insights for product management decisions.

Interest rates and exchange rates are key players in finance because they affect investment returns and company earnings. Trying to predict changes in these rates can lead to mistakes.
There is no one-size-fits-all risk-free rate; it varies by currency and country. To find a risk-free rate, you need to account for local factors like government bond rates and default risks.
When dealing with different currencies, it's important to stay consistent in your valuations. This helps make sure that changes in inflation and risk are accounted for fairly across different currencies.