The hottest Financial Markets Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Top Links 630 Flexible exchange rates, fear of floating, Goldfinger & the reality of the global exchange rate system.

Chartbook • 414 implied HN points • 26 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Policy Global Economy Monetary Systems Financial Markets
  1. Flexible exchange rates can cause uncertainty, which some countries try to avoid, leading to a 'fear of floating'.
  2. The discussion around the realities of the global exchange rate system helps us understand how it impacts economies worldwide.
  3. Lessons from past conferences on floating exchange rates are valuable for grasping their long-term effects and challenges.

Stupid Rules For Stupid People Struck Down

Points And Figures • 639 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
💼 Business Corporate Governance Regulation Investment Financial Markets Diversity
  1. NASDAQ's rule for corporate board diversity focused too much on identity instead of qualifications. It's more important to have people with varied experiences and perspectives on the board to help businesses succeed.
  2. The legal decision to revoke certain rules about private company disclosures is seen as positive. Regulations that infringe on privacy can deter companies from going public and create unnecessary barriers.
  3. Private markets should be free from excessive regulations. Investors need to keep the identities of their shareholders confidential, and government oversight can lead to more problems than it solves.
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Daily Chartbook #389

Daily Chartbook • 262 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
💰 Finance Financial Markets Investing News
  1. Daily Chartbook #389 is a paid post on substack with 30 charts to catch up on the day.
  2. The content is exclusive to paid subscribers, offering in-depth insights for those interested.
  3. Readers can sign in if they are already paid subscribers or choose to subscribe to access the content.

Greek stock market greens

The Greek Analyst • 199 implied HN points • 20 Nov 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Investment Economy Global Finance Financial Markets
  1. The Greek stock market is performing well, with significant gains and various positive capital market developments like IPOs and investments.
  2. Greece's stock market offers appealing valuations compared to other European markets, making it an attractive investment opportunity.
  3. There is a resurgence of interest in Greek stocks, with increasing institutional support, positive outlook, and initiatives to boost market participation, indicating a potential trend for growth.

Macroeconomics with Price Theoretic Foundations

Economic Forces • 5 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
💰 Finance Macroeconomics Price theory Financial Markets Asset Pricing Monetary Policy
  1. Understanding finance is really important for macroeconomics. It helps us figure out how markets work and how different factors impact the economy.
  2. The no-arbitrage principle in finance shows that prices should adjust quickly to eliminate profit opportunities. This means that if something is cheaper in one place, it won't stay that way for long.
  3. We can analyze macroeconomic theories using tools from price theory. This allows us to test predictions and better understand how things like interest rates and asset prices relate to the economy.

The Treasury's Gambit

Concoda • 653 implied HN points • 27 May 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Financial Markets Central Banking
  1. Monetary leaders are implementing new tools to prevent instability in the bond market and stimulate risk assets without central bank assistance.
  2. Regulatory constraints have hindered major liquidity providers in the Treasury market, leading to the need for Treasury buyback programs to enhance liquidity.
  3. The U.S. Treasury is set to conduct buyback programs in 2024 to manage cash, boost liquidity, and potentially lower expenses and yields in the secondary Treasury market.

The crisis VCs face turning investments into cash returns

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 14 Oct 24
💼 Business Venture Capital Investments Startups Financial Markets Economic Trends
  1. Venture capitalists are struggling to turn their investments into cash returns. This means they are having a tough time selling their stakes in companies for a profit.
  2. There has been a significant drop in the number of venture-backed company exits. The amount of money made from these exits is now much lower than it was in previous years.
  3. The slow pace of returns is affecting the number of active venture funds. Many funds have stopped working or reduced in size because of the less promising investment environment.

The Market Vs. The Bank of Japan

Japan Economy Watch • 319 implied HN points • 20 Dec 22
💰 Finance Market Interest Rates Inflation Financial Markets
  1. Market pressure forced the Bank of Japan to increase the maximum rate of 10-year Japan Government Bonds
  2. BOJ Governor Kuroda believes the rate hike was a technical measure, not a start of tightening monetary policy
  3. The outcome will be shaped by factors like BOJ's bond purchases, impact of interest rate rises on businesses, value of the yen, and course of inflation

Subprime, bank runs, and the Global Financial Crisis

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 210 implied HN points • 26 Dec 23
💰 Finance Economics Financial Markets Policy Housing Crisis Regulation
  1. The private securitization market dominated housing finance from 2004 to 2007 before collapsing.
  2. The Great Recession didn't follow the expected pattern in Atlanta, with unique housing price changes.
  3. The Global Financial Crisis was self-imposed due to a retraction in money and credit, not the predicted factors.

Paul Schmelzing Is Coming to Berkeley to Talk About Interest Rates since 1310!

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 130 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates Economic Growth Financial Markets
  1. The graph shows a decline in global real interest rates over 800 years, challenging the idea of 'secular stagnation'.
  2. Interest rates' evolution over history raises questions about the relationship between the rate of profit, societal changes, and financial market dynamics.
  3. Factors like technological progress, income growth, and human behaviors impact the slope of the real intertemporal price system, affecting interest rates.

Trump's Banks

Net Interest • 13 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
💰 Finance Banking Investing Economics Financial Markets Corporate Finance
  1. Trump has had a complex and fluctuating relationship with Wall Street, relying on banks for significant funding throughout his career. His ventures often led to defaults and bankruptcies, causing lenders to hesitate to work with him later.
  2. Deutsche Bank played a crucial role in Trump's financing, lending him over $2 billion despite his previous financial troubles. This close relationship also implicated the bank in legal issues related to Trump's financial practices.
  3. Trump has shifted his main banking relationships over time, now primarily working with a smaller bank called Axos Financial. Following his election win, his creditworthiness improved, benefiting both him and the bank.

Hedge Funds - A Beginner's Guide

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 199 implied HN points • 01 Jun 23
💰 Finance Investing Wealth Management Financial Markets Economic strategy Market Analysis
  1. Hedge funds are private investment funds managed by professionals who use different strategies to earn high returns for wealthy investors. They're not open to everyone, and there's less regulation.
  2. Hedge funds can use strategies like long and short selling to profit from market changes. Long selling means buying with the hope the price will go up, while short selling means selling borrowed assets to profit if prices drop.
  3. Many people dislike hedge fund managers due to a lack of transparency and the perception that they profit during tough times for others. Plus, it's tough for regular folks to invest in hedge funds as they often have high minimum requirements.

WSJ Editorial Cites My Writings on BOJ Dilemma

Japan Economy Watch • 179 implied HN points • 18 Jan 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Economics Financial Markets
  1. The Bank of Japan decided to maintain its monetary policy which initially impacted the currency exchange rate and bond yields.
  2. An editorial in the Wall Street Journal referenced writings by Richard Katz concerning the BOJ policy, shedding light on the ongoing discussions.
  3. Richard Katz had a letter to the editor published in response to an op-ed about BOJ policy, showcasing differing opinions and contributing to the dialogue.

Easy Money

Dana Blankenhorn: Facing the Future • 39 implied HN points • 07 Feb 24
💼 Business Wealth Tech industry Politics Entrepreneurship Financial Markets
  1. The easy money era since 2008 has allowed individuals to rapidly amass wealth through financial maneuvering.
  2. Billionaires have a responsibility to the system that enabled their wealth, and disrespecting that system is unacceptable.
  3. Democracy is under threat due to the attitude of newly wealthy individuals who view themselves as superior beings.

The Bull Case for Alternative Data

The Data Score • 59 implied HN points • 11 Apr 23
💰 Finance Investing Data Analysis Financial Markets ROI Network Effects
  1. The Alternative Data industry is currently facing challenges but has the potential for long-term success by emphasizing clear client outcomes and building network effects.
  2. Understanding the value clients gain from data insights is crucial, as insights drive decisions and financial outcomes.
  3. Creating network effects and aligning data teams with critical client outcomes are key factors for the Alternative Data industry to move towards sustained growth and productivity.

The Paradox of Finding Surprising Insights in Alternative Data

The Data Score • 59 implied HN points • 22 Jun 23
💼 Business Data Analysis Investment Financial Markets Market research Risk management
  1. Institutional investors need to find surprising insights in data but also be skeptical of them to ensure accuracy and avoid errors.
  2. When using alternative data to make predictions, it's crucial to verify if the insights answer the right questions and differ from the market consensus.
  3. Digging into the data through various methods like independent validation, error margin assessment, and data integrity checks is essential for investors to ensure the reliability of surprising insights.

It Only Takes One Data Point to Disprove an Investment Thesis

The Data Score • 19 implied HN points • 09 Jan 24
💰 Finance Financial Markets Data Analysis Investment Strategies
  1. It only takes one data point to disprove an investment thesis by testing for the counterfactual, which allows identifying data points that go against the thesis.
  2. A question-driven approach to investing focuses on formulating the right questions to deeply understand the investment landscape, prioritizing curiosity and critical thinking.
  3. Designing an investment thesis involves setting measurable outcomes, defining timeframes, identifying dependencies, establishing checkpoints, and being aware of the current valuation. It's crucial to recognize what's in the valuation already and how your views differ.

What Are The Dangers And Rewards Of Doubling Down On Your Investments?

Behavioral Value Investor • 89 implied HN points • 30 Apr 23
💰 Finance Investments Risk management Behavioral Finance Value investing Financial Markets
  1. Doubling down on investments can be risky, make sure to assess potential downsides.
  2. Even successful investors can make mistakes and suffer losses by doubling down.
  3. Before doubling down on an investment, consider factors like financial leverage, funding requirements, and management strength.

Clouded Judgement 10.25.24 - Misaligned Incentives

Clouded Judgement • 13 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
💼 Business Venture Capital Startups Investment Strategies Financial Markets Economic Trends
  1. Venture capitalists are changing how they work with founders. Instead of focusing on big wins together, some are now just trying to make quick money from management fees.
  2. Founders should be careful about raising too much money too early. Getting larger sums from investors can often come with higher valuations, which can hurt the business long-term.
  3. It's important for founders to know how many other companies their investors are supporting. If an investor has too many companies, they might not have enough time to help yours succeed.

Europe's Financial Crime Hunters

False Positive • 19 implied HN points • 21 Dec 23
💰 Finance Money Laundering Financial Markets Regulations Surveillance
  1. ACER, an EU agency, functions as supranational detectives to monitor energy markets in all member states and detect international manipulation.
  2. Energy market liberalization created opportunities for financial crimes like manipulation through financial contracts rather than actual energy trading.
  3. The EU is establishing AMLA to combat cross-border money laundering, introducing a supranational monitoring system to address weaknesses in the current national-level approach.

The Death of Credit Suisse

Apricitas Economics • 64 implied HN points • 25 Mar 23
💰 Finance Banking Global Finance Financial Regulations Risk management Financial Markets
  1. Credit Suisse faced major financial issues over several years, with losses, leaked data, and fines leading to its demise.
  2. Swiss authorities forced Credit Suisse to merge with UBS to prevent a public collapse and global financial crisis.
  3. The fallout from Credit Suisse's fall includes impacts on European banks, market confidence, and central bank efforts to stabilize the financial system.

What Alt Data Should Learn from Alt Rock

The Data Score • 19 implied HN points • 14 Jul 23
💼 Business Data insights Financial Markets Product Development Data products
  1. The success of alternative rock band Nirvana in the 1990s can be seen as a tale of achieving product-market fit, blending novelty with familiarity, and capturing lightning in a bottle
  2. Just like how Nirvana and alternative rock made their way into the mainstream, alternative data companies need to craft unique, valuable products that merge novelty with familiarity to cater to a wider audience
  3. Challenges in adopting alternative data include aligning products with client needs, making data accessible, and building a narrative around data products to drive adoption and ensure impact

Venstappen Victory Lap

Malt Liquidity • 8 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
💰 Finance Economics Investment Central Banking Inflation Financial Markets
  1. Food delivery companies like Doordash may struggle to sustain growth post-lockdowns, facing challenges with profitability and expanding their customer base.
  2. Central bank policies face challenges in balancing inflation control and market stability, leading to potential risks of speculative bubbles and volatility.
  3. Inflation can impact investment decisions, prompting individuals to seek ways to outpace the rate of return to counter its effects.