The hottest Financial Markets Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Top Finance Topics
Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality β€’ 130 implied HN points β€’ 11 Feb 24
  1. The graph shows a decline in global real interest rates over 800 years, challenging the idea of 'secular stagnation'.
  2. Interest rates' evolution over history raises questions about the relationship between the rate of profit, societal changes, and financial market dynamics.
  3. Factors like technological progress, income growth, and human behaviors impact the slope of the real intertemporal price system, affecting interest rates.
Newcomer β€’ 255 implied HN points β€’ 26 Jan 24
  1. The traditional link between public markets and IPO sentiment is weakening.
  2. Successful tech startups have alternative options to going public, like selling to private equity buyers.
  3. Uncertainty, like the U.S. presidential election in 2024, could affect the IPO market.
Dana Blankenhorn: Facing the Future β€’ 39 implied HN points β€’ 07 Feb 24
  1. The easy money era since 2008 has allowed individuals to rapidly amass wealth through financial maneuvering.
  2. Billionaires have a responsibility to the system that enabled their wealth, and disrespecting that system is unacceptable.
  3. Democracy is under threat due to the attitude of newly wealthy individuals who view themselves as superior beings.
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Erdmann Housing Tracker β€’ 211 implied HN points β€’ 26 Dec 23
  1. The private securitization market dominated housing finance from 2004 to 2007 before collapsing.
  2. The Great Recession didn't follow the expected pattern in Atlanta, with unique housing price changes.
  3. The Global Financial Crisis was self-imposed due to a retraction in money and credit, not the predicted factors.
The Informationist β€’ 1257 implied HN points β€’ 26 Mar 23
  1. BTFP is a program by the Fed to provide liquidity to underfunded banks facing large customer withdrawals.
  2. Banks can borrow against securities like U.S. Treasuries with no haircut and at a low cost.
  3. BTFP offers a sweetheart deal to banks, providing liquidity without stigma of borrowing from the Discount Window.
Concoda β€’ 653 implied HN points β€’ 27 May 23
  1. Monetary leaders are implementing new tools to prevent instability in the bond market and stimulate risk assets without central bank assistance.
  2. Regulatory constraints have hindered major liquidity providers in the Treasury market, leading to the need for Treasury buyback programs to enhance liquidity.
  3. The U.S. Treasury is set to conduct buyback programs in 2024 to manage cash, boost liquidity, and potentially lower expenses and yields in the secondary Treasury market.
The Data Score β€’ 19 implied HN points β€’ 09 Jan 24
  1. It only takes one data point to disprove an investment thesis by testing for the counterfactual, which allows identifying data points that go against the thesis.
  2. A question-driven approach to investing focuses on formulating the right questions to deeply understand the investment landscape, prioritizing curiosity and critical thinking.
  3. Designing an investment thesis involves setting measurable outcomes, defining timeframes, identifying dependencies, establishing checkpoints, and being aware of the current valuation. It's crucial to recognize what's in the valuation already and how your views differ.
Lewis Enterprises β€’ 157 implied HN points β€’ 30 Apr 23
  1. Economics is better appreciated as a history of thought rather than an explanatory science.
  2. Fischer Black simplified complex financial models to focus on crucial elements.
  3. The concept of 'noise' in the financial markets affects our ability to predict returns and understand economic variables.
Behavioral Value Investor β€’ 89 implied HN points β€’ 30 Apr 23
  1. Doubling down on investments can be risky, make sure to assess potential downsides.
  2. Even successful investors can make mistakes and suffer losses by doubling down.
  3. Before doubling down on an investment, consider factors like financial leverage, funding requirements, and management strength.
The Data Score β€’ 59 implied HN points β€’ 22 Jun 23
  1. Institutional investors need to find surprising insights in data but also be skeptical of them to ensure accuracy and avoid errors.
  2. When using alternative data to make predictions, it's crucial to verify if the insights answer the right questions and differ from the market consensus.
  3. Digging into the data through various methods like independent validation, error margin assessment, and data integrity checks is essential for investors to ensure the reliability of surprising insights.
The Data Score β€’ 59 implied HN points β€’ 11 Apr 23
  1. The Alternative Data industry is currently facing challenges but has the potential for long-term success by emphasizing clear client outcomes and building network effects.
  2. Understanding the value clients gain from data insights is crucial, as insights drive decisions and financial outcomes.
  3. Creating network effects and aligning data teams with critical client outcomes are key factors for the Alternative Data industry to move towards sustained growth and productivity.
Apricitas Economics β€’ 64 implied HN points β€’ 25 Mar 23
  1. Credit Suisse faced major financial issues over several years, with losses, leaked data, and fines leading to its demise.
  2. Swiss authorities forced Credit Suisse to merge with UBS to prevent a public collapse and global financial crisis.
  3. The fallout from Credit Suisse's fall includes impacts on European banks, market confidence, and central bank efforts to stabilize the financial system.
The Data Score β€’ 19 implied HN points β€’ 14 Jul 23
  1. The success of alternative rock band Nirvana in the 1990s can be seen as a tale of achieving product-market fit, blending novelty with familiarity, and capturing lightning in a bottle
  2. Just like how Nirvana and alternative rock made their way into the mainstream, alternative data companies need to craft unique, valuable products that merge novelty with familiarity to cater to a wider audience
  3. Challenges in adopting alternative data include aligning products with client needs, making data accessible, and building a narrative around data products to drive adoption and ensure impact
The Parlour β€’ 12 implied HN points β€’ 02 Aug 23
  1. The featured papers discussed in the newsletter are 'Displaced by Big Data,' 'Deep Learning for Corporate Bonds,' and 'Exploiting the dynamics of commodity futures curves.'
  2. The newsletter highlights research on whether new data diminishes the advantages of active fund managers with industry expertise.
  3. Readers are encouraged to subscribe for a 7-day free trial to access the full post archives.
Reminiscences Of A Young & NaΓ―ve Financier β€’ 19 implied HN points β€’ 08 Apr 23
  1. Consider switching to cash if you believe the market is overvalued, and buy assets back during market drawdowns.
  2. Understand and manage your portfolio's beta, which measures its sensitivity to the market.
  3. Use futures contracts on market indexes to hedge your portfolio and adjust its beta during volatile times.
RegAlert β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 28 Dec 23
  1. Financial institutions in Nigeria must submit their financial market transaction signature mandate to the Central Bank of Nigeria's Financial Markets Department, detailing authorized dealers, dealing mandates, transaction limits, and annual review requirements.
  2. The signature mandate should include full names, designations, level of authority, and transaction limits of authorized officers, with any changes promptly communicated. Submissions are due by January 12, 2024.
  3. This circular FMD/DIR/PUB/CIR/001/008 emphasizes the importance of transparency, accountability, and clear communication within financial institutions regarding financial market transactions and authorized officers.
RegAlert β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 30 Jan 24
  1. Financial institutions must provide transparent pricing in financial market transactions to avoid market manipulation.
  2. The Central Bank of Nigeria warns against underreporting transaction rates and using 'second cheques' as these practices will be sanctioned.
  3. Compliance with CBN rules and guidelines is crucial for a well-functioning and transparent financial market.