The hottest Central Banking Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Discounting the Future: Financial Markets, Memory, & the Mirage of ‘Normal’

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 192 implied HN points • 19 Jun 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Interest Rates Central Banking Economic Policy Investment Strategies
  1. Financial markets are uncertain right now, with discount rates showing anxiety about growth and policy directions. It's a confusing time that could lead to either growth or recession.
  2. The Federal Reserve is divided on its future rates, indicating a cautious approach as they wait for more data. Mixed opinions exist about how to respond to inflation and economic conditions.
  3. The concept of a 'normal' economy has changed significantly since the 1990s. Today, interest rates and inflation are at levels that do not align with past expectations, leading to a new financial landscape.

Lula Hoops

Doomberg • 5190 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
💰 Finance Currency Investments Global Economy Central Banking
  1. Gold prices have been rising significantly and outperforming the S&P 500 lately, reaching all-time highs in many currencies.
  2. There's speculation that central banks are accumulating gold as they explore options for a new currency to compete with the US dollar, particularly involving a potential BRICS currency backed by gold.
  3. At the recent BRICS summit, there were concerns that Brazil's president might not fully support efforts to move away from the US dollar, which could impact the success of this new currency initiative.

Will AI Cause Massive Deflation?

cryptoeconomy • 1493 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economics Technology Central Banking Inflation Deflation
  1. There will not be durable deflation in the future unless major changes happen to the dollar or the Federal Reserve.
  2. Technology like AI can lead to deflation by lowering prices, but central banks like the Federal Reserve counteract this by absorbing the deflation.
  3. A special type of bad deflation occurs when dollars are taken out of circulation, often due to events like financial panics, leading to economic challenges.

How New Zealand invented inflation targeting

The Works in Progress Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 23 Jun 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Economic Reform Central Banking Global Economics
  1. New Zealand was the first country to adopt inflation targeting as a main goal for its central bank. This goal helped to stabilize prices and became a standard practice worldwide.
  2. The change in monetary policy came from political decisions rather than academic consensus. Roger Douglas, the Finance Minister in the 1980s, publicly set clear inflation goals, leading to a new approach in controlling inflation.
  3. Inflation targeting not only worked well in New Zealand but also influenced many other countries to adopt similar strategies. It helped central banks stabilize inflation expectations and aligned their incentives to minimize political interference in economic decisions.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 464 implied HN points • 05 Jan 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Central Banking Liquidity management
  1. The Federal Reserve took steps to manage money market pressures around year-end, which helped stabilize the situation. They provided morning repo operations to encourage lower trading rates.
  2. Despite these efforts, many traders still chose not to use the Fed’s cheapest repo options, which showed a lingering fear about using those facilities. This meant that repurchase agreements still traded at higher rates.
  3. Looking ahead, the debt ceiling is expected to cause uncertainty in the money markets. As people prepare for this, interbank liquidity may increase, but it won't necessarily make funding any easier.
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The Real Mission of the Fed

In My Tribe • 607 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
💰 Finance Central Banking Government debt Monetary Policy Financial Crises Quantitative Easing
  1. The main job of the Federal Reserve is to help the government borrow money easily and cheaply. This allows the government to spend on various programs, including wars and welfare.
  2. Despite originating to stabilize the banking system, the Fed has faced criticism for not preventing financial crises. Even after its creation, the U.S. has experienced repeated financial problems.
  3. Quantitative Easing, a method the Fed uses to handle money and loans, may need to end. This would help limit government debt and potentially benefit everyday Americans in the long run.

The Everything Bubble Suddenly Feels Unstable

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 29 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic Policy Central Banking Risk management
  1. Investors might need to prepare for tougher conditions in the market. It seems like the Federal Reserve might not be there to support them like before.
  2. The era of easily accessible money may be changing. Investors who relied on quick fixes might find it harder to bounce back from crises.
  3. It's important for investors to rethink their strategies. They may need to adapt to a new reality where traditional safety nets aren't guaranteed.

Money Market Update

Concoda • 324 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Policy Central Banking Liquidity management Investment strategy
  1. The Federal Reserve plans to keep reducing its balance sheet until at least 2025. This is to normalize financial conditions rather than to tighten the economy.
  2. Recent changes in interest rates show that the Fed is trying to clear extra cash from its programs. This could help push down short-term borrowing rates and shake up financial markets.
  3. Despite a strong U.S. dollar, there's still good liquidity available in the markets. This offers potential support for riskier investments as banks might adjust their capital due to rising stock prices.

Top Links 559 Will there be dollar-renminbi dramas in garbage time? Central bank independence in SE Asia & Sartre, Anderson, Jameson.

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
💰 Finance Global Markets Economics Central Banking Currency Exchange Financial Policy
  1. There could be important developments regarding the dollar and renminbi exchange rates in the near future. This might affect global economics significantly.
  2. The independence of central banks in Southeast Asia is a key topic worth watching. Their decisions can impact regional economies and policies.
  3. The work and ideas of philosophers like Sartre, Anderson, and Jameson are still relevant today. They offer interesting perspectives that connect to current issues.

How Much Change When BOJ Eventually Tweaks? Part 1

Japan Economy Watch • 139 implied HN points • 11 Mar 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Economic conditions Interest Rates Central Banking Inflation
  1. Interest rate changes depend on both BOJ policy and financial market conditions, and a policy tweak is likely to result in a gradual, minor impact on rates.
  2. BOJ's intention appears to be maintaining accommodative financial conditions by making small adjustments to policies like the overnight rate and yield curve control.
  3. BOJ's decision-making process is influenced by the balance of risks in moving too early or too late, with a focus on clear evidence of sustained wage growth before significant policy changes.

What's So Special About the Fed's Bank Term Funding Program?

Without Warning • 235 implied HN points • 12 Apr 23
💰 Finance Banking Federal Reserve Market Valuation Central Banking
  1. The Fed's Bank Term Funding Program offers unique benefits such as par valuation and no haircut for certain collateral.
  2. Mark-to-market accounting can lead to time-based losses for banks using market-based funding like the BTFP.
  3. Central bank interventions like the BTFP in crises may have implications for bank capital and risk management.

The Fed's Global Dilemma

Concoda • 794 implied HN points • 01 May 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Global Finance Financial Stability Central Banking
  1. The banking system has evolved significantly post the 2007/08 Great Financial Crisis, leading to changes in global monetary standards and U.S. central bank's mechanisms.
  2. Regulatory standards like LCR, NSFR, and SLR have transformed major financial institutions into stable entities, impacting their ability to engage in certain financial activities.
  3. The Federal Reserve introduced new mechanisms like Jaws of the Fed™ to control money market rates and ensure financial stability, but faces a dilemma with vulnerabilities in its global lower jaws.

The Fed & the Central Banking Order of Operations

Without Warning • 196 implied HN points • 10 Mar 23
💰 Finance Central Banking Monetary Policy Inflation Communication
  1. Central banks follow a specific order of operations during financial crises, involving rate cuts, quantitative easing, and emergency liquidity facilities.
  2. Dallas Fed President raised the idea of separating asset runoff from rate adjustments, suggesting that the balance sheet and rate policy can be independent during market instability.
  3. Fed officials are discussing the possibility of actively growing the balance sheet during monetary tightening, signaling a potential shift from the traditional central banking order of operations.

The Treasury's Gambit

Concoda • 653 implied HN points • 27 May 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Financial Markets Central Banking
  1. Monetary leaders are implementing new tools to prevent instability in the bond market and stimulate risk assets without central bank assistance.
  2. Regulatory constraints have hindered major liquidity providers in the Treasury market, leading to the need for Treasury buyback programs to enhance liquidity.
  3. The U.S. Treasury is set to conduct buyback programs in 2024 to manage cash, boost liquidity, and potentially lower expenses and yields in the secondary Treasury market.

Zen and the Art of CBDC Analysis (Part 2)

Altered States of Monetary Consciousness • 240 implied HN points • 07 Dec 23
💰 Finance Digital Currency Monetary System Central Banking Financial Technology Global Economy
  1. Innovation trends are often blindly followed in mainstream scenes, driven by systemic forces.
  2. The CBDC debate is influenced by the inertia of the global capitalist system and the push towards automation.
  3. CBDC discussions involve various justifications like financial inclusion, cross-border payments, and adapting to the 'spirit of the times.'

The Death of QT

The Last Bear Standing • 179 implied HN points • 17 Mar 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Banking Sector Market Analysis Financial Stability Central Banking
  1. The Federal Reserve struggled with liquidity tightening, leading to emergency measures and a new financial crisis.
  2. Understanding the monetary plumbing system is crucial to comprehending the impact of Quantitative Tightening (QT) on the banking sector.
  3. Quantitative Tightening (QT) may not continue for long, as challenges in the banking sector could be exacerbated without further accommodations from the Federal Reserve.

What is Yi Gang trying to say in his 1st interview after retiring from PBoC?

Pekingnology • 71 implied HN points • 06 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Economics Monetary Policy Currency Financial history Central Banking
  1. Yi Gang discussed the historical significance of Jiaozi, the first paper money, and its implications for currency policies
  2. He emphasized the importance of competition under constraints for a successful monetary system
  3. Yi Gang highlighted the necessity of establishing and enhancing modern central bank systems to maintain currency stability

Venstappen Victory Lap

Malt Liquidity • 8 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
💰 Finance Economics Investment Central Banking Inflation Financial Markets
  1. Food delivery companies like Doordash may struggle to sustain growth post-lockdowns, facing challenges with profitability and expanding their customer base.
  2. Central bank policies face challenges in balancing inflation control and market stability, leading to potential risks of speculative bubbles and volatility.
  3. Inflation can impact investment decisions, prompting individuals to seek ways to outpace the rate of return to counter its effects.

The Truth Behind the Federal Reserve

Harnessing the Power of Nutrients • 0 implied HN points • 10 Dec 08
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Federal Reserve Central Banking Political History Financial system
  1. The Federal Reserve, which controls the nation's money supply, is privately owned and has been a key player in driving countries into massive debt through various methods.
  2. The history of banking and central banking in America involves a complex web of power, from fraudulent practices to political manipulation, impacting the country's economic landscape significantly.
  3. Proposed solutions such as reclaiming the government's power to print debt-free money, alongside advocating for a monetary reform act, aim to combat the control of elite corporations and bankers and restore financial independence to the country.