Astral Codex Ten ⢠15623 implied HN points ⢠03 Mar 26
- The Pentagonās āsupply chain riskā label briefly knocked Anthropicās predicted value but markets quickly rebounded, implying legal challenges, big-cloud partnerships, and publicity make the company unlikely to be crippled.
- Republican efforts to tighten voting rules and a rumored executive order raise real disruption risks for the midterms, but courts and prediction markets expect limited mass disenfranchisement and still tilt toward Democratic gains in Congress.
- Prediction markets are shifting toward hedging and financial products, with crypto-based platforms like MNX targeting AI and real-world risk hedges, and markets are already being used to price geopolitical events like the Iran conflict.