Thinking about... • 1492 implied HN points • 25 Feb 26
- The attempt to turn the country into a fascist state is stalled because it depends on a bloody, popular, victorious war and the political competence to wage it, which the current leader lacks — he can bluster and break things but can’t deliver decisive triumphs.
- The choices on Iran are limited and risky: doing nothing changes little, while an invasion would likely be catastrophic domestically; he may also try to suppress voting as an alternate route to stay in power, but that faces legal and civic resistance.
- Democratic resistance still matters — protests, civil society, local media, and courts have so far checked worse outcomes, and winning the next elections will require extraordinary organizing and broad coalitions to prevent authoritarian consolidation.