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Weekend Update #111--Trump And "Abandoning" Ukraine—Be Careful What You Say

Phillips’s Newsletter • 203 implied HN points • 15 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Ukraine war Political Commentary Military Strategy
  1. Donald Trump recently discussed the Russia-Ukraine war, stating that the U.S. doesn't control its outcome. He emphasized the need for Ukraine to reach an agreement to stop further deaths.
  2. There's a growing recognition that Russia may be weaker than previously thought, especially based on its heavy losses in the war. Some analysis suggests that Russia's military struggles could lead to major equipment shortages soon.
  3. Public narratives often focus on Ukrainian failures while downplaying Russian weaknesses. This one-sided reporting can overshadow the complexities of the ongoing conflict.

In which NATO brings Europe closer to nuclear war for the purpose of teaching North Korea a lesson, and also just because

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 264 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Military Strategy Nuclear policy Geopolitical Tensions Conflict resolution
  1. NATO's actions could make Europe more vulnerable to nuclear conflict, especially with increasing tensions between Russia and the West.
  2. Recent military strikes and responses show that this conflict is escalating and could lead to serious consequences for all parties involved.
  3. Some European politicians seem to underestimate the risks of warfare, believing the US will always protect them from the fallout of their provocative decisions.

Are We Inching toward World War III?

Nonzero Newsletter • 395 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
🌍 World Politics Conflict International relations Military Strategy Geopolitics Foreign Policy
  1. North Korean troops are now involved in the Ukraine war on Russia's side. This could increase tensions and lead to wider conflict if other countries respond.
  2. A new AI development allows chatbots to interact with computers like humans, but it's still not perfect. This could change how we use AI in everyday tasks.
  3. Kamala Harris is getting support from former congresswoman Liz Cheney, raising questions about her foreign policy direction. This might upset some progressive voters.

End of Year Review: the Russo-Ukraine War

Comment is Freed • 99 implied HN points • 29 Dec 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Conflict analysis International relations Military Strategy Diplomacy
  1. The Russo-Ukraine War is a prolonged conflict with no clear solution in sight. Both sides are struggling with ongoing military challenges and the need to adapt strategies.
  2. Ukraine continues to resist despite facing tough circumstances, while Russia shows urgency in its operations but has faced significant casualties. There's a conversation about whether Russia can sustain its fighting force in the long term.
  3. US support for Ukraine has been mixed, with concerns about military aid and restrictions on how it can be used. This might affect Ukraine's chances of a successful outcome, especially if the leadership changes.
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Biden and Netanyahu’s endless war for US-Israeli supremacy

Aaron Mate • 392 implied HN points • 13 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Middle East Military Strategy International relations Political alliances
  1. The US and Israeli governments are working together to maintain their power in the Middle East. They support actions that weaken groups like Hezbollah and Iran to keep control.
  2. Recent conflicts, like the violence in Gaza and Lebanon, are being used by Israel to push forward aggressive policies. The US backs Israel's military actions, seeing it as a way to reshape the region.
  3. There are signs of internal disagreement within the US government about the strategy in the Middle East. Some officials worry that the current approach could lead to more overall conflict.

Nation Building is Back!

Nonzero Newsletter • 304 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Regime Change Military Strategy Middle East Political Rhetoric
  1. The U.S. is returning to a nation-building approach in the Middle East, especially after the recent conflict involving Israel and Hamas. They seem more focused on changing regimes and rebuilding countries than in the past.
  2. Policymakers now view Israel’s actions as an opportunity to reshape the political landscape in the Middle East, similar to the mindset seen during the early 2000s. This brings back memories of previous military interventions.
  3. Rhetoric around recent events has intensified, framing them similarly to significant past tragedies. Leaders are using strong comparisons, which fuels a renewed push for military and political actions in the region.

Quick Update

Black Mountain Analysis • 1926 implied HN points • 08 Jun 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Conflict Negotiations Military Strategy
  1. The strategic analysis focuses on key figures in Russia and emphasizes the importance of interpreting their statements.
  2. Economic impacts of sanctions have led to reindustrialization in Russia and decreased unemployment rates.
  3. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine involves the destruction of the Ukrainian army and potential risks of further escalations and involvement of neighboring countries.

CIA director calls China biggest 'threat', says Ukraine war benefits US geopolitically and economically

Geopolitical Economy Report • 916 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics US-China Relations US-Russia relations Military Strategy Economic Impacts
  1. CIA Director William J. Burns has labeled China as the biggest long-term threat and emphasized focusing resources on countering China.
  2. The CIA has significantly increased its attention on China, creating a dedicated mission center and doubling its budget for operations related to China.
  3. US CIA Director acknowledged that the war in Ukraine has been beneficial for the US, both geopolitically and economically, and used it as a strategy to send a message to China regarding Taiwan.

A Third World War?

Thinking about... • 616 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
🌍 World Politics International Conflict Geopolitics Military Strategy Nuclear proliferation Eastern Europe
  1. Ukrainians are fighting hard to keep the war contained in their country, which helps prevent a bigger conflict that could involve more nations. Their efforts are like firefighters protecting everyone else from a dangerous situation.
  2. Support for Ukraine is crucial. If other countries stop backing Ukraine while they fight against Russia, it could lead to a larger global conflict and even more nations getting nuclear weapons.
  3. Hysteria and fear can lead to bad decisions that make the situation worse. It's important to stay calm and recognize that supporting Ukraine helps make the world a safer place for everyone.

Ukraine’s Kursk 2.0 Offensive – The Strategic Implications of the Sudzha Bridgehead

Glen’s Substack • 118 implied HN points • 12 Aug 24
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy Geopolitics International relations Conflict analysis Eastern Europe
  1. Ukraine has taken control of the significant city of Sudzha, which helps them advance further into Russian territory. This might change the dynamics of the war as they threaten Russian supply lines.
  2. The Sudzha bridgehead allows Ukraine to disrupt Russian logistics and potentially attack key military bases nearby. This could weaken Russia's operations in the region.
  3. By holding Sudzha, Ukraine improves its chances of bargaining in future negotiations. It also creates a new chapter in their struggle for independence from Russian influence.

Seeking long war in Ukraine, Biden approves long-range strikes into Russia

Aaron Mate • 186 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Military Strategy International relations
  1. Biden has allowed Ukraine to use long-range missiles, even though he was worried about it before. This decision marks a big step in the ongoing conflict with Russia.
  2. Biden has privately expressed concerns that Ukrainian President Zelensky is asking for too much military support, fearing it could escalate to a larger war.
  3. With Trump set to take over soon, Biden seems to be making these choices to solidify his stance on the Ukraine situation before leaving office.

Stone, Scissors, Paper.

Trying to Understand the World • 9 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
🌍 World Politics International relations Military Strategy Global Security Geopolitics Conflict analysis
  1. Western political leaders lack knowledge about military strategy and security, which makes it hard for them to respond effectively to current conflicts. They need to understand past lessons from wars and develop a clearer strategy moving forward.
  2. Technological advancements in warfare, like drones and tanks, should be understood in context rather than treated as standalone solutions. Their effectiveness depends on various factors, including the enemy's capabilities and the specific goals of a conflict.
  3. The war in Ukraine is changing the dynamics of European security. European nations need to reconsider their approaches to defense and their relationship with Russia, moving beyond outdated policies and focusing on collective interests and independence.

Weeked Update #109: Ukrainian Land for NATO?

Phillips’s Newsletter • 132 implied HN points • 01 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Military Strategy Elections International relations Legislation
  1. Ukrainian President Zelensky suggested that Ukraine might consider giving up some territory in exchange for NATO membership. This could stop the current fighting but raises big legal questions about land ownership.
  2. There's some hope for Ukraine supporters with Trump's recent choice of Keith Kellogg as his Ukraine envoy. Kellogg is known for wanting to continue aid to Ukraine, but his overall influence may be limited.
  3. Ukraine has started limited attacks on Russian military targets. This may help them hold onto strategic areas, but it's still too early to tell how it will affect the conflict's direction.

Blinken Drags Us Back To The Forestal Suicide Scandal & The US First Strike Gamble.

C.O.P. Central Organizing Principle. • 36 implied HN points • 04 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Military Strategy Nuclear policy Political History Government Officials
  1. Air Force General Curtis LeMay pushed for the U.S. to use nuclear weapons first against the Soviet Union, creating a lot of tension during the Cold War. He convinced others that the Soviets were planning to attack, even though they were mostly focused on defense.
  2. The current U.S. foreign policy seems to be repeating past mistakes by spreading fear of a Russian nuclear first strike, ignoring that Russia is moving toward missile technology that could make traditional nuclear weapons less relevant.
  3. Secretary of State Blinken appears to be continuing this dangerous strategy, which many believe is just a way to maintain Cold War-era tactics instead of seeking real solutions to today’s conflicts.

World Policing or World Perfecting?

In My Tribe • 637 implied HN points • 19 Oct 24
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy Military Strategy Global Governance International relations Regional conflicts
  1. Policing the world can be necessary sometimes, like ensuring safe navigation and commerce. However, trying to forcefully change other countries' systems usually leads to problems.
  2. Past U.S. actions in the Middle East often focused too much on perfection, like trying to build democracies instead of just maintaining order. This overreaching has had high costs without much benefit.
  3. America should find a balance between policing and staying less involved globally. While policing might not be ideal, it's often better than allowing worse alternatives like unchecked aggression from other nations.

Proxy warriors float nukes, troops for Ukraine

Aaron Mate • 129 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Military Strategy Geopolitical Tensions Conflict analysis
  1. NATO countries are using strong and risky language as Russia makes gains in Ukraine. This kind of talk can make a bad situation even worse.
  2. The concept of 'proxy warriors' suggests that other countries might send weapons or troops to further the conflict without directly getting involved themselves.
  3. The situation in Ukraine highlights the dangers of escalating military involvement, especially regarding nuclear weapons and troop deployments.

The Prigozhin Parable

Diane Francis • 1518 implied HN points • 24 Jul 23
🌍 World Politics International relations Political Economy Geopolitics Military Strategy Conflict analysis
  1. The Prigozhin affair shows that Russia is controlled by a group of wealthy oligarchs who care more about money than the well-being of their people. This makes it hard to negotiate or find solutions to the ongoing war.
  2. Putin's response to the Prigozhin situation reveals his weakness and the corruption within the military. Despite military losses, he continues to escalate the conflict instead of seeking peace.
  3. To effectively end the war, the West needs to take strong actions against Russian oligarchs and their assets. The future of Russia may involve breaking it into smaller states, similar to what happened with the Soviet Union.

Ukrainian General Syrskyi Describes Aims and Goals of Kursk Operation in First-Ever CNN Interview

Glen’s Substack • 39 implied HN points • 06 Sep 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Military Strategy Conflicts Diplomacy Geopolitics
  1. Ukrainian General Syrskyi explained that the Kursk operation aims to stop Russian forces from launching new attacks and to boost Ukrainian morale.
  2. He noted that Ukrainian troops have successfully halted Russian advances in the Pokrovsk direction, showing that their strategy is working.
  3. Syrskyi emphasized the need for Ukraine to be smarter in warfare due to Russia's material advantages, focusing on effective tactics and high-tech weaponry.

Francis Drake’s swashbuckling spirit lives on in Kyiv’s Black Sea battles

Glen’s Substack • 39 implied HN points • 05 Sep 24
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy Geopolitics Conflict resolution International relations
  1. Ukrainian military chief Kyrylo Budanov is using new technology like sea drones to attack the Russian navy in the Black Sea. This modern strategy is similar to Sir Francis Drake’s historic tactics.
  2. Ukraine’s use of unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) is changing naval warfare and helping them take on Russia's stronger navy. These drones are proving effective in disrupting supply lines and targeting enemy ships.
  3. Despite being outmatched in the Black Sea, Ukraine's innovative use of USVs is forcing Russia to alter its strategies and pull back its naval forces, which might help Ukraine resume its grain exports.

Putin's Push

Diane Francis • 1059 implied HN points • 28 Sep 23
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy International relations Geopolitics Conflict resolution National Security
  1. Putin is under pressure to improve Russia's military situation quickly. His aggressive tactics are leading to more risks and causing problems for his already strained forces.
  2. Russian military leaders face issues with payments and morale, creating a culture of incompetence. Some officers even sold information to Ukraine, showing a lack of trust and discipline.
  3. Ukraine is gaining ground with new support from Western weapons, making it harder for Russia to maintain control, especially in Crimea. This shift could lead to significant changes in power if Ukraine succeeds.

Weekend Update #103: North Korea shows itself to be a Great Ally

Phillips’s Newsletter • 177 implied HN points • 20 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Military Strategy International relations Security Geopolitics
  1. North Korean combat troops may soon join Russia in the Ukraine war, which could change the dynamics on the battlefield. Ukraine's leaders believe over 10,000 troops are being prepared to fight.
  2. Despite claims of rapid Russian advances, the actual progress on the ground has been minimal, raising concerns about the strategy of limiting support for Ukraine. The slow pace of advances suggests a grinding war continues.
  3. President Zelensky has proposed a five-point victory strategy for Ukraine, but there is little support from Western allies, particularly the US, making the situation challenging for Ukraine as it seeks increased military aid.

Ruble, Rubble, Death Spiral

Diane Francis • 999 implied HN points • 24 Aug 23
🌍 World Politics International relations Conflict Economics Military Strategy Geopolitics
  1. Russia is facing a financial crisis due to a sharp drop in oil prices and reduced exports. This has made it difficult for them to fund their military operations and keep the economy stable.
  2. Ukraine is actively targeting Russian shipping routes to disrupt their oil exports. This strategy not only impacts Russia's income but also serves as a psychological tactic against the Russian public.
  3. With many skilled workers leaving Russia and international isolation tightening, the country's currency is weakening. This causes increasing economic pressure on the government, making it harder for them to maintain control.

Ukrainian Exceptionalism

Diane Francis • 979 implied HN points • 07 Sep 23
🌍 World Politics International relations Military Strategy Cyber Warfare Geopolitical Issues Conflict Studies
  1. Ukraine has shown remarkable resilience and innovation in its war against Russia, using advanced technology and a strong community spirit. They are known for developing new weapons like drones that give them an edge despite being outnumbered.
  2. The country boasts a high level of education and has a large number of skilled engineers and IT workers. This expertise helps Ukraine to build and adapt technology quickly to support their military efforts.
  3. Ukraine is transforming how wars are fought with smart tech and creativity. Their approach, including using civilian resources and tech teams, has changed the battlefield and shocked their adversaries.

Can Great Power Politics Be Ethical?

Castalia • 299 implied HN points • 27 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy International relations Political theory Political Ethics Military Strategy
  1. Great power politics often involves tough choices where states prioritize their own interests. This leads to conflicts and a belief that violence can sometimes be necessary to maintain power.
  2. Realism, a key theory in international relations, suggests that international laws and good intentions often don't work. Instead, powerful nations will act according to their own interests, regardless of fairness.
  3. Despite hopes for a more cooperative international system, powerful states rarely act differently than weaker ones, and this creates a cycle of conflict driven by the pursuit of power.

NATO Escalation & Propaganda Take Us to War

Glenn’s Substack • 119 implied HN points • 10 Jun 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Military Strategy Propaganda Geopolitics Conflict Studies
  1. NATO's actions are escalating tensions, which could lead to war. It's important to understand how military alliances affect global peace.
  2. Propaganda plays a big role in shaping public opinion about war. People need to be critical of the information they receive.
  3. Dialogue and conversation are crucial to prevent misunderstandings. Clear communication can help avoid unnecessary conflict.

Vlad the Terrible

Diane Francis • 1019 implied HN points • 29 Jun 23
🌍 World Politics International relations Geopolitics Conflict Studies Military Strategy Political Analysis
  1. Putin is facing serious challenges to his power after a failed mutiny, showing that his grip on Russia is weakening. Many in his inner circle are worried and uncertain about his leadership.
  2. The oligarchs and elites in Russia are tired of the ongoing war and its negative impact on their businesses. They might push for a change in leadership or a shift in strategy to stabilize the country.
  3. There is potential for a new administration of moderates to emerge, which could lead to negotiations to end the war in Ukraine and help rebuild Russia.

The Drone Wars: You Are Not Prepared

The Corbett Report • 45 implied HN points • 09 Dec 24
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy Global Conflict Surveillance technology
  1. Drones are becoming a major player in warfare. While many people see drones as fun technology, they are actually being weaponized and will play a crucial role in future conflicts.
  2. Countries around the world, including the US, China, and Russia, are busy developing drone armies. This shift in military power means future wars will look very different from anything we've seen before.
  3. It's important to think about how to defend against drone attacks, especially as they become more common. We need to prepare for the reality of drone warfare and consider ways to protect ourselves.

The Superhero Theory of Defense

Investing 101 • 32 implied HN points • 14 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics War Politics Geopolitics Military Strategy Foreign Policy National Security
  1. Strong powers attract challenges, leading to conflicts. This idea is similar to how superheroes create villains by existing.
  2. Not all conflicts are caused by mistakes. Some threats may exist regardless of actions taken, and understanding these threats is vital.
  3. Infrastructure like diplomacy can handle some conflicts, but current global tensions may require a stronger response or action to protect values and interests.

Ukraine and Goliath

Diane Francis • 999 implied HN points • 25 May 23
🌍 World Politics International relations Military Strategy Conflict resolution Geopolitics Diplomacy
  1. Ukraine is gaining international support by meeting with world leaders. This has helped them secure financial aid and military resources to strengthen their fight.
  2. The battle in Bakhmut has exposed weaknesses in Russia's military. While it has been costly, it has delayed Russian advances and boosted Ukraine's strategic planning.
  3. Ukraine is preparing to improve its air force with advanced jets and defense systems. This will help protect its skies and enhance its military capabilities against Russia.

It's time to call this World War III

The Cosmopolitan Globalist • 56 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
🌍 World Politics Global Conflict Military Strategy International relations Geopolitics Foreign Policy
  1. The current situation is being compared to World War III, with serious threats to global peace. We need to recognize this and act to stop aggressors like Russia.
  2. Strength is crucial in dealing with Putin. History shows that he responds only to a strong defense, and if we show weakness, it could lead to bigger conflicts.
  3. The war in Ukraine affects not just Europe but also global security. If we abandon Ukraine, it could encourage other aggressor nations like China and Russia to pursue their goals, risking further instability.

Russia Collapses

Diane Francis • 1199 implied HN points • 16 Mar 23
🌍 World Politics International relations Economic Sanctions Conflict Geopolitics Military Strategy
  1. Many Russians are living in poverty due to the long-lasting war and its effects on the economy. People are struggling with basic needs like heat, water, and jobs.
  2. Putin is not being truthful about the state of the Russian economy. Western sanctions are hurting it badly, and many businesses have shut down as capital is leaving the country.
  3. Russia's energy trade is in trouble because of price caps and Europe moving away from Russian oil and gas. This is leading to a significant drop in state revenues and economic decline.

Military Metrics and the Russian 2024 Offensive

Phillips’s Newsletter • 103 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy International relations Conflict analysis Geopolitics War reporting
  1. How a war is presented can greatly influence public perception. It's important to understand that not everything shown in the media represents the true situation on the ground.
  2. Recent reports highlight Russian advances in Ukraine, which may create the impression of inevitable success. However, these reports can sometimes be misleading or exaggerated.
  3. Understanding military metrics and outcomes requires looking beyond flashy maps and headlines. A deeper analysis can provide a clearer picture of the actual progress in a conflict.

Putin's Other Genocides

Diane Francis • 819 implied HN points • 12 Jun 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Ethnic conflict Human Rights International Law Military Strategy
  1. Putin is using ethnic minorities in Russia to fight in Ukraine, putting them at greater risk of dying in battle. Many of these groups, like Tatars and Mongols, are being forced into the military without proper training.
  2. Russia's treatment of its ethnic minorities has led to growing resentment and activism among these groups. They are starting to organize against the government and some are even supporting Ukraine in the conflict.
  3. The war is revealing deep inequalities in Russia, with minorities facing discrimination and poverty. Activist groups from these regions are emerging to protest and help those targeted by the draft.

Introduction: 'To Govern The Globe'

God's Spies by Thomas Neuburger • 105 implied HN points • 22 Jan 25
🌍 World Politics Empires History Geopolitics Military Strategy
  1. World orders are more stable than empires. They are shaped by economics, culture, and global interactions, and they can last much longer than the empires that create them.
  2. The West has a history of expansion and exploitation. This history affects how current global dynamics play out, especially between nations.
  3. Understanding these world orders helps us see where we are headed next. We need to look at past strategies and how they impact today's politics and society.