The hottest Military Strategy Substack posts right now

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CROSSPOST: DAN DREZNER: There Is No U.S. Plan on Iran

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 130 implied HN points • 03 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Military Strategy
  1. The U.S. joined Israel’s strikes on Iran with maximalist goals but no coherent strategy, and senior officials appear to be improvising rather than managing a planned campaign.
  2. Political optics and alliance pressure — wanting to look strong and not be outflanked by Netanyahu — helped drive the decision more than careful strategic planning.
  3. The strikes have hit military and civilian sites and caused casualties, but Iran’s coercive apparatus remains largely intact, so hopes for quick regime change are unrealistic.

Iranian DIE-aspora and the Green frogs in a Well

Taipology • 63 implied HN points • 03 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. Bombing alone is unlikely to topple Iran — its vast terrain, large population, and decentralized "mosaic" defenses make regime change by air strikes (or a quick ground invasion) implausible.
  2. Some diaspora communities are openly celebrating heavy strikes and spreading misleading or exaggerated claims online, turning a complex war into polarizing memes and wishful thinking.
  3. The conflict looks set to be long, costly, and destabilizing: rising casualties, mass public grief that can create martyrs, and hard choices for allies about whether to stay engaged or cut losses.

Israel (and America) are fighting a new kind of war in Iran

Unreported Truths • 40 implied HN points • 18 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. Israel and the U.S. are carrying out a deliberate campaign to kill or decapitate Iran’s military and intelligence leadership using signals intelligence, spying, airpower, and precision strikes.
  2. This is a new, radical kind of warfare — aimed at disabling a country’s command structure from the top while trying to avoid mass civilian casualties, an approach enabled by modern technology.
  3. Whether it will work is unclear: success depends on stopping Iran from plugging leaks and on whether its leaders will keep risking death rather than surrendering, and Iran can still wield leverage through things like closing the Strait of Hormuz.

A War Foretold

Taipology • 74 implied HN points • 28 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. The US, with Israel playing a leading role, appears to be pursuing a long-planned regime-change campaign against Iran that may rely on regional proxies rather than large numbers of American ground troops.
  2. Iran has struck back effectively with missiles, making the fight likely to be prolonged and costly; putting Tehran on "death ground" guarantees fierce resistance and raises the risk of a quagmire for the US.
  3. The strategic benefits for the United States are unclear, and the conflict may actually help China geopolitically because China’s oil supply is diversified and it can leverage other economic levers rather than being contained by a war in the Middle East.

What Is Iranian Air Power Strategy?

Phillips’s Newsletter • 143 implied HN points • 05 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. Airpower strategy is basically about targeting — by seeing what a state attacks you can infer its strategic aims.
  2. Airpower expands the battlefield across air, sea and space, letting strikes reach far from front lines and cause wide-ranging effects.
  3. Iran seems to emphasize indirect, diversionary air attacks (like drones and long-range strikes) to force opponents to waste resources on defense and repairs rather than only destroying specific targets.
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The US/Israel Bombing of Iran--What We Are Seeing From An Air Power Perspective

Phillips’s Newsletter • 160 implied HN points • 03 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. Modern air operations have revealed both the strengths and the limits of air power, showing where strikes can be decisive and where they fall short.
  2. Iran is actively fighting back with its own air campaign, which complicates the battlespace and changes how attacks and defenses play out.
  3. Political leaders have offered shifting and sometimes contradictory justifications for the war, leaving the strategic purpose unclear and suggesting mixed or domestic motives.

Up the Escalation Ladder

John’s Substack • 12 implied HN points • 19 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. A strike on energy facilities and Iran's retaliation risk a wider escalation that could push oil above $100 a barrel and seriously hurt the global economy.
  2. Israel seems to be pursuing a decapitation strategy, and there are real doubts about whether the US and Israel could successfully seize Iran's 60% enriched uranium.
  3. The situation puts pressure on the US to secure the Strait of Hormuz and highlights uncertainty about whether any viable political exit strategy exists to prevent further escalation.

I Dream of Heroic Africans Fighting for Ukraine

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 2535 implied HN points • 25 Nov 25
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. Ukrainians have been heavily impacted by the war, facing fatigue and high costs, while there are many people in Africa willing to fight for lower pay, which could help Ukraine's military situation.
  2. Using African fighters could change the perception of the war, showing a divide between those fighting for freedom and authoritarian regimes, making it harder for Putin to justify his actions.
  3. If the conflict continues, Ukraine may need to find innovative solutions, like recruiting from poorer regions, to maintain their fight against Russia effectively.

Ukraine's Gold Medal

Diane Francis • 919 implied HN points • 29 Jul 24
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. Ukraine has been successful in pushing back Russian forces, especially around the city of Kharkiv and in Crimea. Their clever use of technology, like drones, has helped them gain the upper hand.
  2. Western countries are increasing their military and financial support to Ukraine as they prepare for future challenges. They are also allowing Ukraine to strike military targets within Russia.
  3. The situation in Crimea is vital for Ukraine, as weakening Russia's stronghold there can put pressure on their military and economic resources, impacting Putin's control.

Paint By Number

Doomberg • 7300 implied HN points • 25 Jul 25
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. The EU imposed a new sanctions package against Russia, but previous sanctions have had little effect on Russia's economy.
  2. Russia is now producing its own drones at a rapid pace, increasing its military capabilities significantly.
  3. Energy resources play a crucial role in a country's military strength, and the EU's energy situation is getting worse.

Gallipoli II

John’s Substack • 19 implied HN points • 16 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. The US president appears desperate and is pushing for China and other allies to join the Iran war while openly considering force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and seize Kharg Island.
  2. Trying to force open the Strait or mount an amphibious assault on Kharg Island would be highly risky, likely to fail, and would make other countries reluctant to join a war seen as losing.
  3. Close ties to Israeli leaders and their advisers have pulled the US deeper into the conflict, a move that looks like a major strategic mistake.

Why the Iran war is so tricky

Unreported Truths • 30 implied HN points • 16 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. Iran already has enough enriched uranium that it could be turned into a nuclear weapon, and the size and effects of such a bomb would be uncertain but potentially catastrophic.
  2. Finding and seizing those uranium stores would be very hard and dangerous because enriched uranium is hard to detect and is likely kept in fortified or underground sites that would require a large, risky special-forces operation.
  3. This creates a brutal choice: keeping pressure and control might stop Iran from finishing a bomb but risks wider conflict and economic damage like a closed Strait of Hormuz, while easing off would likely let Iran build a weapon, so there’s no easy, risk-free option.

A crime and a tragedy: the Iran war

World Game • 21 implied HN points • 04 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. The attack came when Iran posed little immediate threat and aimed to topple the regime without a plan, but destroying a state will create a vacuum and unpredictable, likely hostile consequences.
  2. The violence spread quickly across the region, hitting Gulf states and energy infrastructure, driving oil prices up and helping rivals while hurting Europe.
  3. The US approach favored spectacle over strategy, lacking a roadmap or understanding of the fallout, so the chaos could spiral out of control and backfire politically.

Three Significant Military Powers on the European Continent?: Muscovy 'Rus, But Also an "Inner Europe" and the "Viking Alliance"

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 261 implied HN points • 30 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. Russia punches above its economic weight militarily and has nuclear weapons, so Europe can no longer assume outside guarantees will always hold. Europe must prepare credible independent defense options.
  2. Two mini-lateral coalitions — an "Inner Europe" core (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Poland, Netherlands) and a "Viking Alliance" of northern states plus the UK, Baltics, and Ukraine — could form the main conventional balance to Russia. If they build real command structures, budgets, and production, they would outweigh Russia in conventional resources.
  3. Emergent European military coalitions would change deterrence and U.S. politics by making any presidential tilt toward Russia more visible and politically costly. They would normalize forward deployments, bilateral guarantees, and industrial cooperation that strengthen collective defense.

Moscow's Syria

Diane Francis • 1179 implied HN points • 20 Jun 24
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. Ukrainian forces, with help from Syrian rebels, recently attacked Russian mercenaries in Syria. This move aimed to stop Russia from building its military presence there.
  2. Syria has turned into a messy situation for Moscow, acting as a training ground for various militants. Russian involvement in Syria has escalated conflicts in other regions too.
  3. There is a shared enemy among Syrians, Ukrainians, and the West regarding Russian aggression. This common goal has sparked cooperation between these groups against Russia.

The Emperor Has No Brains

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 15573 implied HN points • 21 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Military Strategy
  1. There's a lot of military tension right now, and the actions being taken could either mean nothing or signal serious problems ahead. It's a risky situation for everyone involved.
  2. Joe Biden's recent appearances and decisions have raised questions about who is really leading NATO and whether he is in control of the situation.
  3. With more advanced weapons being used in the conflict, the potential for escalation is high, and it’s important to pay attention to how this affects global relations.

Bound to Lose

John’s Substack • 16 implied HN points • 14 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. A military campaign by the US and Israel against Iran is portrayed as likely to fail and unwinnable.
  2. The Israel lobby is described as a powerful force that shapes and steers US foreign policy decisions.
  3. Those two points are connected: the lobby’s influence helps drive policies that increase the chances of entering a costly, hard-to-win conflict with Iran.

Weekend Update #169: A Corruption Riddle Solved

Phillips’s Newsletter • 327 implied HN points • 25 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. The Board of Peace is built so its chairman has near-total control over large sums with little oversight, creating a clear risk that seized or donated funds could be funneled to the chair for personal or political use.
  2. Zelensky used his Davos speech to warn that the United States under Trump cannot be relied on, urging Europe to stop waiting for America, build its own strength, and recognize Ukraine’s central role in European security.
  3. Ukraine’s 2026 military plan aims to inflict very heavy Russian casualties—targeting up to 50,000 per month—while reducing Ukrainian losses through tighter management, precision operations, and intelligence-driven tactics.

IS TRUMP A LIABILITY IN HIS OWN WAR?

Seymour Hersh • 45 implied HN points • 05 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. His public remarks have revealed sensitive intelligence and likely put covert contacts inside Iran at risk, prompting searches and reprisals.
  2. Talking about bringing the Kurds into the fight could ignite ethnic conflict, since armed Kurdish groups seek autonomy and are already massed near borders.
  3. US intelligence officials worry that the president’s loose talk and poor judgment are undermining coordinated military and covert operations against Iran.

The Ultimate Deception: How Trump and Bibi Outfoxed Iran

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 4780 implied HN points • 13 Jun 25
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. Trump and Netanyahu were straightforward in their plans against Iran, avoiding complex political language. This clear communication was crucial in their strategy.
  2. Iran's top military leaders, who had threatened Israel, believed they were safe and went about their normal lives without fear. This showed a miscalculation of the threat posed by Israel.
  3. The consequence for Iran's leaders was severe, as they were ultimately targeted and eliminated, illustrating the risks of underestimating an opponent.

A Ukrainian Victory Strategy

Phillips’s Newsletter • 169 implied HN points • 10 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. Ukrainians are actively thinking through a strategic, nuanced plan for how to achieve victory.
  2. Some Western reporting, including recent Wall Street Journal pieces, misrepresents or misunderstands that strategy and promotes misleading narratives like claims about sending the youngest people to the front.
  3. There is a substantive Ukrainian strategic discussion underway that is more complex than many Western observers appreciate.

You Listen to Israel, You Lose

John’s Substack • 18 implied HN points • 12 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. The US and Israel appear to have no clear strategy or exit plan for the war with Iran, which makes winning unlikely and escalation more dangerous.
  2. The US president made a serious mistake by following Israeli leadership instead of heeding military and intelligence warnings.
  3. Pro-Israel lobbying and Israeli influence steered US policy toward war rather than listening to the National Intelligence Council and other officials.

Toward a Second Cuban Missile Crisis?

Glenn’s Substack • 319 implied HN points • 06 Aug 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Military Strategy
  1. The US plans to deploy new missiles in Germany that can hit Moscow in just 2-3 minutes. This short response time raises the risk of an accidental nuclear conflict.
  2. In response, Russia may decentralize its decision-making to ensure a quicker reaction against perceived threats, potentially increasing tensions.
  3. The abandonment of the INF Treaty has led to a situation similar to the Cuban Missile Crisis, with no clear benefit to security, highlighting the need for serious discussions about nuclear weapons policies.

Richard Danzig on AI and Cyber

ChinaTalk • 266 implied HN points • 16 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Military Strategy
  1. Act now: the defense establishment must stop being passive and quickly build real AI expertise, assimilative capacity, and closer partnerships with frontier tech companies to seize a short-lived first-mover advantage in cyber and AI instead of waiting for some distant AGI fix.
  2. Rewire the organization: large, siloed institutions need cultural and structural change so cyber and AI are not underweighted—create dedicated career paths, pool resources for general-purpose systems, and pair bold civilian leaders with open-minded military leaders to drive reform.
  3. Manage co-evolving risks and power: AI is a fast, uneven general-purpose technology that will reshape offense, defense, markets, and human roles, so governments must build capability, governance, and safeguards to limit private dominance, prevent accidents, and avoid dangerous overreliance on machines.

Hitler's Avatar

Diane Francis • 2078 implied HN points • 01 Apr 24
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. Czech President Petr Pavel believes that Europe is in danger of war again, much like it was before World War II. He wants to support Ukraine to prevent further conflict.
  2. Pavel has organized the delivery of a lot of ammunition to Ukraine quickly because he thinks if Ukraine loses, Europe will also be at risk.
  3. European leaders are starting to take the threat from Russia seriously and are discussing actions they might need to take to prepare for possible conflict. Pavel advises readiness, not fear, regarding the situation.

Greenland, sine ira et studio

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 145 implied HN points • 09 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. Trump's push for Greenland is rooted in real strategic concerns about the Arctic and in his doubts about NATO; when he questions the alliance he leans toward seeking more direct U.S. control over key territory.
  2. Denmark and other European states are effectively unable to sell Greenland because of constitutional limits and post‑colonial political commitments, so the idea of an easy transfer of sovereignty is unrealistic.
  3. The U.S. presence in Europe functions like an informal empire that gives Washington influence and economic benefits, and Trump's strategy mixes pressure on NATO with efforts to cultivate friendly populist parties to sideline the EU — a move that risks political blowback in Europe.

Our Sixty Days of Nuclear Chicken Have Begun

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 10440 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. The situation in Ukraine is getting riskier as peace talks are expected after Trump's inauguration. This is causing both Russia and the U.S. to escalate their military actions.
  2. Recent attacks involving U.S.-made ATACMS missiles have heightened tensions and alarmed Russian media. They are worried about this being a significant moment in history.
  3. There's a growing fear that we might be approaching a major conflict, with some comparing it to the dangers of the Cuban Missile Crisis. A nuclear response from Russia is now more likely, raising serious concerns.

Ukraine Unbowed

Diane Francis • 1039 implied HN points • 23 May 24
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. The next six months are really important for Ukraine, and there's uncertainty about what will happen. The media is often focusing on the negatives, which can change people's perspectives.
  2. Some news reports are biased and may not accurately show the situation on the ground in Ukraine. This reporting can miss the full story and reflect outside influences like Kremlin narratives.
  3. Despite some reports of Russian success, experts suggest these claims might be exaggerated. In reality, Russian forces have faced many challenges and losses, while Ukraine might be getting better supplies soon.

Target practice

Lucian Truscott Newsletter • 2928 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. The U.S. military is facing attacks by Iranian-backed militias in the Middle East.
  2. The complex proxy war in the region involves various groups fighting against the U.S. and its allies.
  3. American troops are stationed in bases in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan for strategic purposes, amidst threats and conflicts.

Deterring a Taiwan Invasion

ChinaTalk • 2861 implied HN points • 07 Jul 25
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. Rapidly increasing troop numbers can deter invasions. Just like Japan raised its defenses quickly, Taiwan should boost its military readiness to make any attack seem costly.
  2. Using the natural terrain for protection is crucial. Taiwan can use its mountains for hiding and sheltering military assets to stand strong against potential attacks.
  3. Focusing on asymmetric warfare, like drones, is essential. Taiwan should invest in quick-to-deploy technologies that don't require a lot of time or resources to develop.

A Farewell To Arms Supplies.

Trying to Understand the World • 8 implied HN points • 11 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. Strategy must start with a clear, unambiguous end-state you can measure, because without a defined goal you can't know what plans or resources are needed.
  2. Operational plans have to show how actions will actually produce political outcomes and must be grounded in a realistic understanding of the target society; wishful assumptions (like crude modernization theory or expecting “people like us” to take over) usually fail.
  3. War is fundamentally attritional and asymmetric: victory depends on preserving the specific capabilities tied to your objectives, and logistical, industrial and political limits can defeat even a technologically superior power.

Weekend Update #167: Lets Be Honest, We Are Taking Advantage Of The Ukrainians

Phillips’s Newsletter • 288 implied HN points • 11 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. Western allies are effectively relying on Ukrainians to bear huge human and material costs while providing relatively small aid, and ordinary people are enduring brutal hardships like cold, power loss, and frontline danger.
  2. The Graham–Blumenthal sanctions push looks like political theater: the Senate can act without White House sign-off and the president already claims wide sanction powers, so public promises don’t guarantee real punishment of Russia.
  3. Ukraine’s strikes on Russian energy infrastructure are making a difference but their impact is limited by Chinese purchases and uneven Western support, and there is a tense debate about whether to escalate attacks on Russian cities if more help doesn’t arrive.

Niall Ferguson: Israel’s Attack Restores the Credibility of the West

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 2944 implied HN points • 13 Jun 25
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. Israel recently launched a major military operation against Iran, marking a new phase in their ongoing conflict. This involved air strikes and targeted assassination strikes against key Iranian military figures.
  2. The attacks were extensive, with hundreds of strikes involving around 200 fighter jets. Israel's approach shows they are willing to engage in significant military action.
  3. Iran's leadership has responded aggressively, warning of painful retaliation, and there are ongoing fears of escalating violence within Israel itself.

2025 In Review: The Year The US Changed Sides

Phillips’s Newsletter • 345 implied HN points • 31 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. In 2025 the US shifted from being a strong supporter of Ukraine and NATO to a policy that effectively sides with Russia, ending direct aid and reversing prior commitments.
  2. That switch had concrete military effects: cuts to weapons, ammunition, and intelligence weakened Ukraine’s air defenses and likely contributed to higher civilian casualties and Russian battlefield gains.
  3. The change reshaped global politics by weakening alliances and emboldening Russia and China, giving Putin time and diplomatic cover, so democracies must acknowledge this new reality if they want to respond.

Weekend Update #166: The Russian Strategy Would Normally Be Seen As A Failure

Phillips’s Newsletter • 309 implied HN points • 04 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. Russia’s 2025 campaign won under 1% of Ukrainian territory but at very high casualty and resource cost, making it effectively a strategy of failure unless outside support changes the balance.
  2. Zelensky’s appointment of Kyrylo Budanov as chief of staff signals a move toward a tougher, long-term war posture and may strengthen his political and military hand.
  3. Trump’s quick acceptance of a Kremlin claim about an attack on Putin’s palace, followed by a face-saving retweet, revealed how easily he can be influenced by Russian narratives and how PR maneuvers can obscure that reality.

Andrew Roberts: Trump’s Churchillian Choice at Fordow

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 2531 implied HN points • 16 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Military Strategy
  1. Dictators often make real threats, so it's important to take them seriously. History shows that when people ignore these threats, it can lead to severe consequences.
  2. Winston Churchill faced a tough decision during World War II about the French fleet. He chose to sink it to prevent it from being used by the enemy, showing that sometimes tough choices are necessary for safety.
  3. Leadership can require hard and ruthless choices during critical moments. These actions can redirect the course of events to ensure a safer future.

October Surprise

Doomberg • 7068 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy
  1. Iran launched a significant missile attack on Israel that successfully hit multiple military bases, which surprised many observers.
  2. This attack is causing a lot of concern in the energy markets, as there are fears Israel might retaliate by targeting Iranian oil facilities, potentially disrupting global oil supplies.
  3. Interestingly, the potential for major escalation seems lower now, as the situation might lead to a steady state of tensions rather than outright conflict.