The hottest Supply and Demand Substack posts right now

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Case-Shiller and Filtering

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 189 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Inflation Supply and Demand
  1. The Case-Shiller index, which tracks home prices, historically suggested a housing bubble. However, it may actually reflect a housing shortage rather than a bubble bursting.
  2. When adjusting home prices for inflation using rent instead of general CPI, the index shows that home prices are still significantly elevated due to high rents driving prices up.
  3. Today's housing market struggles with a lack of new homes, leading to increased prices for existing homes. This lack of building capacity has made it harder for younger generations to have the same homeownership opportunities as their grandparents.

7 Charts Show the Housing Tipping Point Has Arrived

The New Urban Order • 199 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
💼 Business Housing Supply and Demand Real Estate Economics Urban Development
  1. There is a significant increase in multifamily housing supply, signaling a potential tipping point in the housing industry.
  2. Cities like Minneapolis that have increased housing supply are seeing a decrease in rent prices, showcasing the impact of supply and demand in the housing market.
  3. The increase in housing supply across the U.S. is leading to declines in rent prices in many major markets, demonstrating the effectiveness of increasing supply to address housing affordability.

Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with house prices in 2025?

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 26 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Housing Prices Supply and Demand
  1. House prices are expected to rise by about 3% to 4% in 2024. This prediction is based on the current trends in housing inventory and sales.
  2. The future of house prices in 2025 will largely depend on supply and demand in the market. A shortage or surplus of homes can greatly influence prices.
  3. There are significant differences in home supply across different regions, with areas like Florida and Texas seeing more inventory. This suggests that while national trends matter, local conditions can lead to very different outcomes.

Updating my priors on missing middle

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 379 implied HN points • 03 Mar 24
💼 Business Real Estate Housing Market Urban Development Supply and Demand
  1. Missing middle housing developments can be more impactful in addressing housing affordability issues than previously thought.
  2. Simply advocating for 'build more' without considering the complexity and various factors at play may not fully address housing supply constraints.
  3. Increasing the construction of 'missing middle' housing units significantly could play a crucial role in normalizing the American housing market and addressing housing shortages.

Cannabis Shortages Spread in the West

Mindset Value • 314 implied HN points • 23 Feb 23
💼 Business Supply and Demand Market Trends Industry Analysis
  1. Cannabis shortages are spreading in the Western states like Oregon, Nevada, and Colorado, following California's increase in prices.
  2. Prices are rising due to low inventory after challenging market conditions that led to a decrease in cannabis production and many inefficient producers going out of business.
  3. The interconnectedness of the cannabis market is leading to shortages in various states, impacting pricing and supply dynamics.
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Strange But True: "Price Gouging" Benefits People In Disaster Areas

Stark Realities with Brian McGlinchey • 476 implied HN points • 01 Sep 23
💼 Business Economics Market Dynamics Government regulations Supply and Demand Entrepreneurship
  1. Price gouging can benefit people in disaster areas by incentivizing consumers and sellers to act efficiently.
  2. Price spikes during crises lead to a more rational distribution of scarce products among those in need.
  3. Anti-price gouging laws can worsen situations by limiting supply and hindering the market's ability to respond to demand.

Common Chicanery about Competition (from the archives)

Economic Forces • 6 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
💼 Business Economics Competition Market Theory Supply and Demand Pricing
  1. You don't need complete knowledge or information for competition to exist. All you need is an understanding of your own likes and the price of the goods.
  2. Competition does not mean that companies make no profit. In fact, if prices are above costs, companies can still earn profits even in a competitive market.
  3. You don't need an endless number of buyers and sellers to have competition. Even a few sellers can compete if their products are good substitutes for each other.

A Brief Technical Review of the Alternative Housing Story

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 168 implied HN points • 30 Jan 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Economics Housing Market Credit Supply and Demand
  1. Cities like Los Angeles face housing supply issues due to low permit approvals compared to cities like Atlanta and Phoenix.
  2. National housing market statistics can be misleading as there are extreme regional differences.
  3. The myth of a credit bubble causing price bubbles is debunked, with evidence showing price spikes before rise in debt in housing markets.

The Housing Shortage Is Larger Than You Think: Part 2

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 99 HN points • 19 Dec 23
💰 Finance Home Prices Supply and Demand Market Analysis
  1. Bank of America analysis suggests a deficit of 4 million homes in the US due to underbuilding over the past decade.
  2. Home prices spiked by 41% during the Covid boom with 60% attributed to the work-from-home trend.
  3. Vacancies are a crucial part of housing supply, with a potential need for a 300% increase in supply to match demand from 2020-2022.

January 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 18 Feb 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Supply and Demand Inflation
  1. Rising rents are causing rising home prices in the US housing market, with a greater than 1:1 pace.
  2. Density of housing is crucial in impacting housing prices, especially in cities like New York City, where dense neighborhoods are affected by supply shortages and migration trends.
  3. The impact of COVID-19 on housing trends varies across cities, with some areas experiencing temporary relief in housing costs for dense neighborhoods while other cities like New York face complexities in supply conditions.

The Era of Acute GPT Shortage Will Soon Begin

Tomasz’s Substack • 19 implied HN points • 27 Mar 23
🕹 Technology AI Supply and Demand Regulation Global Competition
  1. Researchers predict that GPT-4 technology could significantly speed up tasks in the US, leading to a potential surplus of LLM services.
  2. There could be a shortage of GPT services due to the high demand from professionals and large corporations, with supply potentially struggling to keep up.
  3. OpenAI may restrict GPT-4 access, possibly limiting it to US-based businesses, which could give American and Chinese companies a competitive advantage in utilizing advanced LLM models.

Economics 101 with Lt. Surge

Malt Liquidity • 12 implied HN points • 29 Feb 24
💼 Business Economics Pricing Delivery Market Supply and Demand
  1. Price is never fixed; liquidity is essential for determining true asset value and facilitating trading.
  2. Surge pricing is a rapid increase in price due to fluctuating supply and demand, different from traditional linear pricing models.
  3. In the business of food delivery, balancing in-store and app orders requires strategic pricing adjustments to maximize profitability and control over the network.

Will lab-grown beef raise the price of handbags?

Economic Forces • 4 implied HN points • 15 Feb 24
💼 Business Economics Market Production Supply and Demand Price theory
  1. Lab-grown beef becoming a closer substitute for conventional beef can impact the supply of hides available for leather, affecting industries like luxury fashion.
  2. The theory of joint production explains the interconnectedness of markets where goods share production inputs, highlighting how changes in demand for one output can affect others.
  3. Understanding joint production in economics goes beyond standard supply and demand models, revealing complex relationships and teaching humility about the real-world supply chains.

You'll have to pry supply and demand from my cold, dead hands (from the archives)

Economic Forces • 3 implied HN points • 17 Aug 23
💼 Business Economics Labor markets Education Supply and Demand Market Dynamics
  1. Supply and demand can explain a lot about labor markets, even for introductory economics students.
  2. Workers respond to higher wages predictably, wages reflect productivity, and technology affects worker productivity.
  3. Understanding supply and demand in labor markets can help explain trends like growing returns to education and the increasing cost of education.