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Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2026

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 205 implied HN points • 16 Mar 26
💰 Finance Home Prices
  1. Home sales are very low and months-of-supply is above pre-pandemic levels, which is putting downward pressure on prices, though not triggering a crash because most homeowners hold substantial equity and many have low mortgage rates.
  2. Mortgage rates first fell briefly but have moved up to seven-month highs, and geopolitical uncertainty plus stock market weakness are hurting buyer demand and could further weaken sales.
  3. Price indexes show only modest year-over-year gains (around 1–2%) with small month-to-month rises, but the trend is slowing and the Case-Shiller data has a lag that may understate current price pressure.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.09 million SAAR in February

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 258 implied HN points • 10 Mar 26
💼 Business Home Prices
  1. Existing-home sales rose 1.7% month-over-month to a 4.09 million SAAR in February, but they remain 1.4% below last year’s level.
  2. Inventory increased to 1.29 million units and months-of-supply held at 3.8 months, which is slightly higher than pre-pandemic (Feb 2019) levels.
  3. Median existing-home price ticked up 0.3% year-over-year to $398,000, even though sales volumes have been very low for more than three years.

March ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Average annual property insurance payments rose to an all-time high"

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 272 implied HN points • 09 Mar 26
💰 Finance Home Prices
  1. Mortgage lending climbed to a 3.5‑year high in Q4, driven by a surge in refinances as lower rates improved affordability and expanded the pool of refinance‑eligible borrowers.
  2. Average annual property insurance payments reached an all‑time high in 2025, rising 6.6%, and borrowers with higher insurance burdens are more likely to fall behind on payments.
  3. Overall delinquencies dipped slightly, but serious delinquencies and active foreclosures rose, leaving over 850,000 borrowers 90+ days past due or in foreclosure—the highest level since mid‑2018.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.3% year-over-year in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 234 implied HN points • 24 Feb 26
💰 Finance Home Prices
  1. National home prices barely rose in 2025, with the Case‑Shiller National index up just 1.3% year‑over‑year and the weakest full‑year gain since 2011.
  2. There is wide geographic divergence: Midwest and Northeast cities (like Chicago and New York) saw gains while many Sun Belt markets (Tampa, Phoenix, Dallas, Miami) posted declines.
  3. The year split into two halves — modest gains in the first half were followed by nominal declines in the back half, and inflation outpaced price gains from June onward, eroding real home values.

New Home Sales at 745,000 Annual Rate in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 229 implied HN points • 20 Feb 26
💼 Business Home Prices
  1. New home sales ran at a 745,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate in December, and about 679,000 new homes were sold in 2025, a slight decline from 2024.
  2. Inventory is elevated with 7.6 months of supply overall; completed homes are near multi-year highs and homes not started are at an all-time high.
  3. The median new home price is about 10% below its peak mainly due to a change in the mix of homes sold, and initial sales estimates are uncertain and likely to be revised down.
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Freddie Mac House Price Index Decreased in January; Up only 0.4% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 110 implied HN points • 27 Feb 26
💰 Finance Home Prices
  1. National house-price growth is stalling: Freddie Mac's index fell 0.13% month-over-month and is up just 0.4% year-over-year, the lowest point in this cycle and essentially flat over the past nine months, so prices could turn negative year-over-year in 2026.
  2. Many places are still below prior peaks: 36 states plus D.C. and most metropolitan areas remain under their previous highs, with the biggest declines concentrated in Florida and California—Punta Gorda is roughly 22% below its recent peak and Austin about 18% down.
  3. Signals point to further cooling but with regional differences: Freddie Mac and NAR readings suggest Case-Shiller will show smaller year-over-year gains, and rising inventory alongside record-low sales has slowed national price growth, though outcomes will vary by market.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 86 implied HN points • 02 Mar 26
💼 Business Home Prices
  1. Existing home sales remain weak — about 3.9 million SAAR and roughly 27% below pre‑pandemic levels, and sales have been unusually low for more than three years.
  2. Housing inventory is rising year‑over‑year and months‑of‑supply are nearing pre‑pandemic norms, which increases the chance that national prices could start to decline sometime in 2026.
  3. Prices are mixed: the national median is only slightly up year‑over‑year, but some local markets (notably California) have seen significant price drops, so conditions vary a lot by region.

January 2026 Erdmann Housing Tracker

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 147 implied HN points • 24 Feb 26
💰 Finance Home Prices
  1. Inflation that excludes rent has tracked very close to a 2% trend for about 3½ years.
  2. Rents should be treated separately from other inflation measures because they can distort signals used for monetary policy.
  3. Home price movements are driven by cyclical factors, credit conditions, and supply constraints, and understanding those components is key to interpreting housing trends.

Final Look at Housing Markets in December and a Look Ahead to January Sales

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 224 implied HN points • 02 Feb 26
💼 Business Home Prices
  1. Existing-home sales are very weak: 2025 posted the lowest annual sales since 1995, with a SAAR near 4.35 million and about 19% below pre‑pandemic levels.
  2. Inventory is rising and months‑of‑supply are above pre‑pandemic norms, and that higher supply—despite only a small median price gain—increases the risk of national price declines in 2026.
  3. Falling mortgage rates in late 2025 make a slight uptick in January sales likely, but new listings remain below 2019 levels so inventory improvements may be uneven across markets.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2026

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 16 Feb 26
💰 Finance Home Prices
  1. Active listings for existing homes are up about 10% year‑over‑year and month‑of‑inventory is back to pre‑pandemic levels, which is putting downward pressure on prices and could lead to year‑over‑year price declines this year. Most homeowners still have substantial equity and low mortgage rates, so a big wave of distressed sales is unlikely.
  2. Homebuilders look to face a difficult 2026 because they have many completed homes for sale and an unusually large number of unsold homes under construction, so they’re cutting prices to compete with growing existing‑home inventory.
  3. Key government data on housing starts and new home sales are delayed by the shutdown, leaving the picture incomplete, and different sources show mixed inventory trends even though national supply remains roughly 17% below 2017–19 levels and the inventory recovery has stalled.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.4% year-over-year in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 71 implied HN points • 27 Jan 26
💰 Finance Home Prices
  1. U.S. house prices rose modestly year-over-year — the Case-Shiller national index was up about 1.4% and the FHFA index about 1.9% — but inflation outpaced those gains so real home values fell.
  2. There is a sharp regional split: Midwestern and Northeastern markets led gains (Chicago +5.7%, New York +5.0%), while several Sun Belt cities showed year-over-year declines (Tampa −3.9%, Phoenix −1.4%, Dallas −1.4%, Miami −1.0%).
  3. Monthly data show small positive momentum after earlier declines — Case-Shiller rose about 0.4% month-to-month (seasonally adjusted) and FHFA rose about 0.6% — yet overall price momentum remains muted and many metros saw monthly drops before seasonal adjustment.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2026

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 17 Feb 26
💰 Finance Home Prices
  1. Months-of-supply is back to pre-pandemic levels while 2025 home sales were the lowest since 1995 (tying 2024), which is putting downward pressure on prices, especially where inventory is high.
  2. Overall house prices were mostly unchanged year-over-year at the end of 2025 — the Case-Shiller National index was up about 1.4% YoY (Composite 10 +2.0%, Composite 20 +1.4%) — and recent month-to-month gains follow earlier declines, though Case-Shiller data lags by several months.
  3. Lower mortgage rates have led to a pickup in purchase mortgage applications recently, but that increase has not yet translated into significantly more closed sales.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.91 million SAAR in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 12 Feb 26
💰 Finance Home Prices
  1. Existing-home sales fell to a 3.91 million SAAR in January, down 8.4% from December and 4.4% year-over-year.
  2. Median existing-home price rose 0.9% year-over-year to $396,800, so prices are slightly higher even as sales cool.
  3. Inventory edged down to 1.22 million while months-of-supply rose to 3.7 months, which is about the same supply level as before the pandemic.

February ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Home price growth slowed to its weakest pace in more than a decade"

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 09 Feb 26
💰 Finance Home Prices
  1. Early-January rate declines toward 6% opened large refinance opportunities for millions and pushed affordability to a four-year high, but prices remain elevated relative to incomes.
  2. National home price growth slowed to its weakest pace since 2011, with the South and West weakening while the Northeast and Midwest hold firmer, and inventories still lagging pre-pandemic norms in many areas.
  3. Negative equity has risen to the highest level since 2018, concentrated in recent loan vintages and in several Southern markets where over 10% of mortgaged homes are underwater.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2026

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 21 Jan 26
💰 Finance Home Prices
  1. Inventory has risen sharply back toward pre‑pandemic levels while existing‑home sales fell to the lowest since 1995, and that combination is putting downward pressure on prices.
  2. National house‑price indexes show only small year‑over‑year gains (around 1–2%), and the trend is slowing with reported data lagging recent market moves.
  3. Lower mortgage rates have increased purchase mortgage applications but haven’t yet boosted sales significantly, and a large wave of distressed sales is unlikely because most homeowners have strong equity and low rates.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 20 Jan 26
💼 Business Home Prices
  1. The NAR is reporting existing-home sales much earlier in the month now. That shortens the window for early projections and may lead to bigger revisions in the initial numbers.
  2. Inventory is rising across markets — Altos shows single-family active listings up about 10% year‑over‑year and regional samples show inventory up roughly 7–11%. This suggests supply may have bottomed and is returning ahead of the usual spring pickup.
  3. Sales are mixed: December had modest year‑over‑year gains but 2025 was the weakest annual sales year since 1995. In California sales edged up slightly while the statewide median price fell, pointing to softer demand and a more balanced market.

What will 2026 bring?

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 21 Jan 26
💰 Finance Home Prices
  1. Metro-area analyses act as 'all else equal' forecasts, so they project outcomes assuming other factors don’t change while still needing to account for many variables.
  2. A near-zero 2025 home-price forecast (about 0.1%) matched the observed change in the Zillow Home Value Index, showing that small, precise forecasts can be accurate.
  3. The outlook for 2026 calls for roughly 3% home-price appreciation, even though expert forecasts for 2025 varied widely from about -2% to 10.8%.

July ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool, Early Signs of Homeowner Risk Emerge

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 248 implied HN points • 07 Jul 25
💰 Finance Home Prices
  1. Home prices are cooling down, with some areas seeing more significant drops. This could affect homeowners' equity and lead to financial challenges.
  2. Many people are using adjustable-rate mortgages or temporary buydown options to manage monthly payments. While this can help now, it may create issues later when rates increase.
  3. Student loan debts are becoming a bigger problem for homeowners, increasing the risk of them falling behind on mortgage payments. Almost 30% of FHA borrowers also have student loans, and those struggling with student debt are more likely to have mortgage issues.

New Home Sales at 737,000 Annual Rate in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 13 Jan 26
💼 Business Home Prices
  1. New single-family home sales ran at a 737,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate in October, essentially unchanged from September and about 18.7% higher than a year earlier.
  2. Supply is elevated: months of supply stayed at 7.9 months (above the normal 4–6 month range), with completed homes, units under construction, and 'not started' inventories all high and 'not started' at an all-time high.
  3. The median new home price is roughly 15% below its peak, mainly because the mix of homes sold shifted toward lower-priced units.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 31 Dec 25
💰 Finance Home Prices
  1. Freddie Mac’s national house price index rose 1.0% year‑over‑year in November, but that is a new cycle low and monthly gains are very small, so overall growth is slowing and could turn negative sometime in 2026.
  2. Nineteen states and D.C. remain below their prior price peaks and many cities have large drops — Punta Gorda is down about 21% from its recent peak and Austin is down over 17%.
  3. Rising inventory and weak sales are reducing upward price pressure, and Freddie Mac and NAR data suggest other indexes like Case‑Shiller will likely show a similar slowdown.

Question #10 for 2026: Will inventory increase further in 2026?

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 22 Dec 25
💰 Finance Home Prices
  1. Housing inventory plunged during the pandemic and, although it rose through 2025, it still sits below pre‑pandemic levels.
  2. Past shifts in inventory have been useful signals for housing market turning points—big increases helped mark the 2006 top and big drops helped mark the 2012 bottom.
  3. Inventory is not seasonally adjusted so year‑over‑year changes are the best way to read it; for example, the NAR reported a 7.5% YoY inventory increase in November 2025, while months‑of‑supply uses seasonally adjusted sales.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 15 Dec 25
💰 Finance Home Prices
  1. Active listings have risen sharply year-over-year, giving buyers more options as inventory nears pre‑pandemic levels even though it remains below 2017–19 norms.
  2. Existing‑home sales are depressed and tracking last year’s lows, which is putting downward pressure on prices, though most owners have enough equity and low rates to prevent a big wave of distressed sales.
  3. New homebuilders are struggling with a growing number of completed and under‑construction unsold homes and are cutting prices to compete, and some key data like housing starts and new home sales are currently unavailable.

Housing Market Preview 2024

The Sunday Morning Post • 117 implied HN points • 07 Jan 24
💰 Finance Home Prices
  1. The housing market has a significant impact on the U.S. economy, representing 15-18% of GDP.
  2. High interest rates and low inventory in 2023 caused fewer transactions and high home prices.
  3. Predictions for 2024 include falling interest rates leading to more supply, potential modest price declines, and buyers becoming more rational.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.13 million SAAR in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 19 Dec 25
💰 Finance Home Prices
  1. Existing-home sales rose 0.5% in November to a 4.13 million SAAR but are about 1.0% lower than a year ago and have roughly hovered around a 4 million annual pace for the past three years.
  2. Inventory fell seasonally to 1.43 million and months-of-supply dropped to 4.2 months, yet inventory is up 7.5% year-over-year and is higher on a months-of-supply basis than before the pandemic.
  3. Median existing-home prices increased modestly, up 1.2% year-over-year to $409,200, indicating slight price gains despite flat sales and mixed supply signals.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.4% year-over-year in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 30 Dec 25
💰 Finance Home Prices
  1. U.S. house prices are only rising modestly: Case‑Shiller’s national index is up about 1.4% year‑over‑year and the FHFA index is up about 1.7%, with small monthly gains after prior declines.
  2. There is strong regional divergence: Midwestern and Northeastern metros (e.g., Chicago +5.8%, New York +5.0%) are leading, while many Sun Belt markets (e.g., Tampa −4.2%, Phoenix −1.5%, Dallas −1.5%, Miami −1.1%) are down.
  3. High mortgage rates are hurting affordability and price momentum—16 of 20 major cities fell month‑to‑month—so national home price gains lag consumer inflation and imply slight declines in real (inflation‑adjusted) home values.