Diane Francis

Diane Francis' Substack discusses geopolitical and geo-economic issues, focusing on conflicts involving Russia, Ukraine, and China. Key themes include Russian aggression, global responses to conflict, corruption, and the roles of powerful leaders and nations in these issues.

Geopolitics Conflicts Corruption Military Aid Global Responses Leadership Economic Sanctions Europe Environmental Impact US Politics

The hottest Substack posts of Diane Francis

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Russia's Sopranos

1478 implied HN points • 26 Jun 23
🌍 World Politics International relations Geopolitics Security Studies
  1. Russia is not just a country; it's an empire with lots of powerful groups fighting for control. This makes it feel more like a mafia organization than a united nation.
  2. Yevgeny Prigozhin, a former friend of Putin, has become a powerful figure by criticizing the military and gaining public support. He raised concerns about how the war is being fought and how soldiers are treated.
  3. Putin's recent challenges show he's losing control. His inability to handle internal conflicts weakens his leadership and could lead to bigger changes in Russia's future.

Why Ukraine Must Win

759 implied HN points • 21 Dec 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics International relations Military conflict Defense Policy Foreign Aid
  1. Ukraine needs more military aid from the US and Europe to defend itself against Russia. Without this support, Russia could gain even more territory.
  2. If Ukraine gets the right amount of funding and military equipment this year, it could turn the situation around and push back Russian advances.
  3. If Ukraine loses, it would not only be a big shift in power but could also mean more US troops in Eastern Europe to handle the aftermath.

Orban Must Go

779 implied HN points • 15 Dec 23
🌍 World Politics Political Conflict International Law Democracy issues Geopolitics
  1. Hungary's leader, Viktor Orban, is blocking financial support for Ukraine, causing frustration among EU members. This has made talks about Ukraine joining the EU more complicated.
  2. Orban has been criticized for corrupt practices and controlling the media in Hungary. His actions might even lead to Hungary being suspended from the EU if he continues to break its rules.
  3. Ukraine's hopes for a European future depend heavily on financial support, which is now uncertain. Without this funding, winning the war and joining the EU could be impossible for Ukraine.

The Putin Kleptocracy

839 implied HN points • 30 Nov 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Corruption Natural resources Russian Politics
  1. Putin has built a powerful system in Russia that's very wealthy and focused on military strength. He controls a lot of valuable resources, more than anyone else in the world.
  2. The amount of money Putin has is staggering, making him the richest person by some estimates, even though he isn't listed as a billionaire anywhere. Most Russian billionaires are actually just working for him.
  3. This huge amount of wealth allows Putin to have a lot of influence over world affairs and wars, showing how money can shape power and control in the world.
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Russia's World War III

1159 implied HN points • 07 Aug 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics International relations Conflict Studies Diplomacy Security Studies
  1. A recent meeting in Jeddah with global leaders, excluding Russia, highlighted the widespread recognition of Russia's aggressive role in the Ukraine war.
  2. Putin's actions have severe consequences beyond Ukraine, affecting global food and energy supply, and creating instability in other regions, especially Africa.
  3. The meeting served as a crucial step for countries to come together to stop Putin, showing that this war is not just a regional issue but a global problem that needs collaboration to solve.

The China-is-not-Russia Summit

879 implied HN points • 16 Nov 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Geopolitics Foreign Policy Bilateral Relations Diplomacy
  1. The US and China are trying to improve their relationship to avoid conflicts and create rules for their economic competition. Both countries want to cooperate for their own benefits.
  2. China's economy is struggling, while the US is doing better, leading China to change its approach, especially after distancing itself from Russia. This change shows China's focus on economic connections over military alliances.
  3. During the summit, the leaders emphasized the importance of communication and addressing shared concerns. This effort aims to ease tensions and strengthen their crucial trading relationship.

Putin's Push

1059 implied HN points • 28 Sep 23
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy International relations Geopolitics Conflict resolution National Security
  1. Putin is under pressure to improve Russia's military situation quickly. His aggressive tactics are leading to more risks and causing problems for his already strained forces.
  2. Russian military leaders face issues with payments and morale, creating a culture of incompetence. Some officers even sold information to Ukraine, showing a lack of trust and discipline.
  3. Ukraine is gaining ground with new support from Western weapons, making it harder for Russia to maintain control, especially in Crimea. This shift could lead to significant changes in power if Ukraine succeeds.

Hubris to Humiliation

1039 implied HN points • 09 Oct 23
🌍 World Politics Middle East International relations Conflict Terrorism Geopolitics
  1. Israel's surprise attack by Hamas has highlighted serious issues within its government and military. The focus on internal politics and building settlements may have weakened their military readiness.
  2. Iran's involvement in the attack is significant, as it aims to strengthen regional opposition to Israel and disrupt potential peace deals. This raises worries about a broader conflict in the region.
  3. The ongoing conflict raises questions about how Israel can effectively respond without worsening its internal divides or causing more civilian harm, as the situation in Gaza remains dire.

Putin's Pope

1039 implied HN points • 17 Aug 23
⛪ Faith & Spirituality Religion Theology Ethics Morality
  1. Pope Francis has not directly condemned Vladimir Putin or Russia for their actions in Ukraine, which many see as disappointing and unacceptable. His statements have sometimes aligned with Kremlin views, making it hard to see where he stands.
  2. Unlike previous Popes who took strong stands against oppressive regimes, Pope Francis seems to avoid clear condemnation of the aggressors in the Ukraine conflict. This has led to frustration among those who expect moral leadership from him.
  3. The Pope's attempts at peace talks have been criticized as ineffective, especially since they often ignore Ukraine's role as a victim. Many believe that until he openly condemns Russia, he won't be taken seriously.

Ruble, Rubble, Death Spiral

999 implied HN points • 24 Aug 23
🌍 World Politics International relations Conflict Economics Military Strategy Geopolitics
  1. Russia is facing a financial crisis due to a sharp drop in oil prices and reduced exports. This has made it difficult for them to fund their military operations and keep the economy stable.
  2. Ukraine is actively targeting Russian shipping routes to disrupt their oil exports. This strategy not only impacts Russia's income but also serves as a psychological tactic against the Russian public.
  3. With many skilled workers leaving Russia and international isolation tightening, the country's currency is weakening. This causes increasing economic pressure on the government, making it harder for them to maintain control.

Israel's Intel Failure

719 implied HN points • 07 Dec 23
🌍 World Politics Intelligence Security Conflict International relations Terrorism
  1. Israel's intelligence missed major warnings about an attack from Hamas, despite receiving detailed information about their plans. Many red flags and alerts were ignored by the leadership.
  2. In September 2023, Ukraine's intelligence warned Israel that a group was preparing Hamas for an attack, but this information did not reach the right people.
  3. Even soldiers on the ground noticed suspicious activity and reported it, but their concerns were dismissed by their commanders, which contributed to the surprise attack.

Ukrainian Exceptionalism

979 implied HN points • 07 Sep 23
🌍 World Politics International relations Military Strategy Cyber Warfare Geopolitical Issues Conflict Studies
  1. Ukraine has shown remarkable resilience and innovation in its war against Russia, using advanced technology and a strong community spirit. They are known for developing new weapons like drones that give them an edge despite being outnumbered.
  2. The country boasts a high level of education and has a large number of skilled engineers and IT workers. This expertise helps Ukraine to build and adapt technology quickly to support their military efforts.
  3. Ukraine is transforming how wars are fought with smart tech and creativity. Their approach, including using civilian resources and tech teams, has changed the battlefield and shocked their adversaries.

The Free-Dumb Caucus

959 implied HN points • 05 Oct 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Legislature Elections Political parties Political strategy
  1. The impeachment of Speaker McCarthy shows deep divisions in the Republican Party, with a small group of far-right members holding a lot of power. This could lead to a frustrating gridlock in the House of Representatives.
  2. The ongoing chaos in Congress might affect important issues like spending and foreign aid. If the disputes continue, it could cause significant problems for the U.S. economy and international relations.
  3. Trump’s influence is still strong, as his supporters refuse to accept majority rule, which could hinder cooperation within the party. The situation might force Republicans to make tough choices about their leadership and direction.

America's State Capture

939 implied HN points • 21 Sep 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political corruption Gun Violence Elections Security Political culture
  1. Political violence is rising in America, making public life more dangerous for officials. Many politicians, like Mitt Romney, now need personal security due to threats.
  2. The influence of private interests on government, called 'state capture,' is leading to corruption and intimidation in American politics. Politicians feel pressured to behave in ways that benefit these interests.
  3. Warnings from other countries about America's gun culture are increasing. Travelers are advised to be careful due to the high rate of gun violence.

Global Refugee Mess

939 implied HN points • 02 Oct 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Policy Public Safety International relations Civil Rights Political theory
  1. Many wealthy countries are facing problems after accepting large numbers of refugees. Issues like crime and social unrest have been reported in places like Sweden and Canada.
  2. There are concerns about how the current refugee system is exploited, with some people using it to gain access to these countries without being true refugees. This has led to discussions about revising the UN Refugee Convention.
  3. Countries like Britain are calling for reforms to manage migration better. They believe that protecting borders and ensuring proper integration is crucial for both the safety of their societies and the well-being of genuine refugees.

International Womens Day and Ukraine

359 implied HN points • 08 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics Gender Issues Conflict Human Rights International relations Women's Rights
  1. International Women's Day highlights the contributions and struggles of women, especially in times of crisis. It's a reminder to honor and support women everywhere.
  2. The situation in Ukraine shows how women are playing a vital role in the fight against adversity. Their bravery and resilience are inspiring.
  3. Media coverage, like interviews and broadcasts, helps bring attention to the stories of women in conflict. Sharing these stories is important for awareness and change.

Ukraine: Stalemate or Checkmate

779 implied HN points • 13 Nov 23
🌍 World Politics Military Geopolitics International relations Conflict Security
  1. The war in Ukraine is currently stuck in a stalemate, and new technology from the West is needed to change that. Many believe Ukraine is losing, but they've actually done significant damage to Russia's military.
  2. Ukraine's counteroffensive slowed down due to delays in receiving promised military support from NATO, giving Russia a chance to prepare defenses.
  3. The recent conflict in Israel and Gaza is drawing attention and resources away from Ukraine, which could be part of Putin's strategy to gain an advantage in the war.

The Big Heat

1019 implied HN points • 03 Aug 23
🌞 Climate & Environment Global Warming Natural Disasters Environmental Policy Human Impact
  1. Recent extreme heat and smoke in places like New York can be partly blamed on a huge volcanic eruption in Tonga. It's important to know that natural events, like volcanoes, can impact the Earth's temperature just as much as human activities.
  2. Despite alarming headlines about wildfires and their link to climate change, the actual area burned by wildfires has been decreasing over the years. Most wildfires are caused by human actions, not climate change, and better land management could help more than strict climate policies.
  3. Global warming is a significant issue, but much of it is influenced by natural events. While we need to address our consumption and behavior, some environmental changes are beyond our control and have always occurred throughout history.

China Capitulates

919 implied HN points • 21 Aug 23
🌍 World Politics International relations Geopolitics Economic Policy
  1. China's economy is facing serious issues like high unemployment and a faltering currency, partly due to mistakes made by its government. It has realized that battling the U.S. economically is not a winning strategy.
  2. Historically, China has had a troubled relationship with Russia, and its current closeness to Moscow is hurting its ties with the West. To improve its situation, China is now working to distance itself from Russia and fix its foreign policy.
  3. China's leaders are trying to mend relations with the U.S. and other countries to strengthen their economy. This shift shows they understand the importance of cooperation instead of conflict.

American Narco State Capture

899 implied HN points • 31 Aug 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Drug policy Corruption Crime Latin America Law enforcement
  1. Ecuador is facing serious issues with drug cartels, leading to violence and political assassinations. The assassination of a presidential candidate shows how deeply rooted these problems are in the country.
  2. Mexican drug cartels are now controlling a significant portion of the illegal drug trade, expanding their influence from Colombia to the United States. This rise in cartel power is linked to high rates of crime and corruption across Latin America.
  3. Current approaches to fighting drug trafficking, like the War on Drugs, have largely failed. Some experts suggest that legalization and treating addiction as a health issue, rather than a crime, might help alleviate this ongoing crisis.

Middle East Morass

839 implied HN points • 19 Oct 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Middle East Geopolitics National Security Humanitarian Issues
  1. Joe Biden supported Israel while also stressing the need to avoid mistakes like those made after 9/11. He warned that anger shouldn't lead to prolonged conflict that causes more instability.
  2. The situation in the Middle East is tense, with Iran and other countries expressing aggression towards Israel. Neighboring countries like Jordan and Egypt are worried about an influx of Palestinian refugees due to potential violence.
  3. There is a call for a regional summit to address the ongoing crisis and seek a two-state solution. A collective effort from countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia is seen as crucial for peace.

Israel: A Trap and No Endgame

799 implied HN points • 23 Oct 23
🌍 World Politics Middle East International relations Conflict Refugees Diplomacy
  1. Israel is facing a complicated situation with no clear end goal, especially regarding the future of Gaza. The military actions may not solve the underlying issues and could make things worse for everyone involved.
  2. The humanitarian crisis in Gaza could lead to more terrorism and instability in the region if not properly addressed. There needs to be a solid plan for who will govern Gaza after Israel's military actions.
  3. The international community should push for negotiations that address the Palestinian issue. It's important for everyone in the region, including Arab states and Israel, to find a peaceful solution together.

The Prigozhin Puzzle

839 implied HN points • 28 Aug 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Conflict Russia Military Power Dynamics
  1. Yevgeny Prigozhin's death raises many questions. People are wondering if it was an accident or if he was murdered, and what this means for the future of Russia and the Wagner Group.
  2. The U.S. is starting to train Ukrainian pilots, showing a shift in support for Ukraine against Russia. This could help Ukraine strengthen its military position.
  3. Prigozhin's demise could lead to more instability in Russia. Without his presence, the country might see further divisions among its leaders and military, speeding up its economic problems.

Israel, Ukraine Support

759 implied HN points • 30 Oct 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Governance Foreign Policy Party Dynamics Military Aid Public Opinion
  1. Support for Ukraine is in danger as the focus shifts to Israel, but many Americans and Europeans still want to help Ukraine fight against Russia.
  2. Ukraine faces serious military challenges and needs continued support, especially with winter approaching and ongoing attacks on its cities.
  3. There's a worry that U.S. political issues could hurt aid for Ukraine, making it crucial for leaders to prioritize security and act decisively.

Putin Weaker? Nyet

939 implied HN points • 31 Jul 23
🌍 World Politics International relations Geopolitics Conflict Studies Foreign Policy Military Affairs
  1. Wagner, a private military group, is a key part of Putin's strategy and makes a lot of money from warfare and operations around the world.
  2. Putin uses Wagner not just for military actions but also to gain influence and control over resources in African countries, often through illegal means.
  3. Despite issues in Ukraine, Putin remains strong because of his partnerships and the ongoing power of groups like Wagner in the global landscape.

Beginning of the End for Russia

1099 implied HN points • 24 Jun 23
🌍 World Politics International relations Geopolitics Military Affairs Political Movements Conflict analysis
  1. Prigozhin, a Russian warlord, openly rebelled against the government, criticizing the war in Ukraine as unjust and driven by greed.
  2. His actions have created unrest within Russia, as some military units are refusing to fight against him, which could weaken Putin's hold on power.
  3. Even if Prigozhin fails in his rebellion, he has already challenged Putin, highlighting discontent and a potential shift in power dynamics within Russia.

Russia will collapse

1139 implied HN points • 15 Jun 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Nationalism Sovereignty Conflict International relations
  1. Russia is facing a financial crisis and military decline, which could lead to its collapse, similar to the Soviet Union's breakup in 1991.
  2. Various regions in Russia are seeking more independence or outright separation, especially those closer to Europe, making a breakup seem increasingly likely.
  3. If Russia does break apart, it could create numerous new nations, but the West needs to prepare for this possibility and support those regions in establishing their independence.

Putin's Amigo

579 implied HN points • 14 Dec 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics International relations Conflict Diplomacy Military Affairs
  1. Nicolas Maduro, the president of Venezuela, is a strong ally of Putin and has worsened his country's economy despite its oil wealth.
  2. Maduro has allowed Russian companies and military groups to operate in Venezuela, contributing to his regime's security and resource extraction.
  3. Recently, Maduro claimed land in Guyana and threatened invasion, which is seen as a distraction from his own economic issues and has raised tensions in the region.

China's Russia

1059 implied HN points • 22 Jun 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics International relations Conflict Studies Diplomacy
  1. The Russia-Ukraine War may lead to the breakup of Russia, similar to the Soviet-Afghanistan War. Russia is losing allies and financial resources, which could cause some regions to want independence.
  2. China has a significant interest in the resource-rich areas of Russia, especially Manchuria, which used to belong to China. As Russia weakens, China might look to reclaim these lands, boosting its own economy.
  3. The partnership between China and Russia is changing. China is distancing itself from Russia after the Ukraine invasion and is cautiously moving towards the West, showing it might not support Russia like before.

Vlad the Terrible

1019 implied HN points • 29 Jun 23
🌍 World Politics International relations Geopolitics Conflict Studies Military Strategy Political Analysis
  1. Putin is facing serious challenges to his power after a failed mutiny, showing that his grip on Russia is weakening. Many in his inner circle are worried and uncertain about his leadership.
  2. The oligarchs and elites in Russia are tired of the ongoing war and its negative impact on their businesses. They might push for a change in leadership or a shift in strategy to stabilize the country.
  3. There is potential for a new administration of moderates to emerge, which could lead to negotiations to end the war in Ukraine and help rebuild Russia.

Israel's War Within

899 implied HN points • 27 Jul 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Judicial system Civil Rights Protests Government Policies
  1. Israel is facing a big political crisis, with many people protesting against Prime Minister Netanyahu's plans that could limit the Supreme Court's power. This has caused divisions among different groups in the country.
  2. The population of ultra-Orthodox Jews (Haredim) is growing fast, and they want to change Israeli society to align with their beliefs. This worries many secular Israelis who want to preserve a more liberal and democratic Israel.
  3. The ongoing issues in Israel, such as economic inequality and the power struggle between the religious and secular groups, could threaten the country's stability and security in the future.

Israel's Angst

759 implied HN points • 16 Oct 23
🌍 World Politics Middle East Conflict International Law Human Rights Diplomacy
  1. Both Israelis and Palestinians face difficult lives under their governments. Many people in both groups are unhappy with their leaders, and they want a change to find a peaceful solution.
  2. The ongoing conflict is causing a severe humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Many innocent civilians are suffering due to the violence and harsh conditions imposed by the war.
  3. There is a pressing need for a two-state solution and international cooperation to reduce tensions. Without action to promote peace, the cycles of violence will continue to harm both communities.

Israel's Real Existential Threat

699 implied HN points • 26 Oct 23
🌍 World Politics Middle East Geopolitics Humanitarian Terrorism International relations
  1. Israel is facing a severe humanitarian crisis in Gaza after its military actions, causing widespread destruction and displacement of civilians. Many worry this could escalate the conflict and create a larger regional war.
  2. Iran and Russia are seen as key players in stirring conflict in the Middle East, with their actions indirectly putting pressure on Israel and its neighbors.
  3. Israel's approach to its military defense has led to backlash and a perception of double standards, affecting its relationships with neighboring countries and global opinion.

South Korea Steps Up

779 implied HN points • 14 Aug 23
🌍 World Politics International relations Military Affairs Geopolitics Conflict Studies Diplomacy
  1. South Korea has increased its support for Ukraine, marking a significant shift in its international stance. This is partly due to South Korea's own history of being affected by Russian aggression during the Korean War.
  2. The country has been exporting military supplies to Ukraine and is officially joining its alliance, showcasing its readiness to confront threats from North Korea and Russia.
  3. A South Korean soldier, Sgt Kim Jae-kyung, has actively campaigned for support of Ukraine, reminding people that South Korea received help from many nations in its own time of need.

Turkey's Russia

939 implied HN points • 03 Jul 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics International relations Regional conflicts Military Affairs
  1. Ramzan Kadyrov, a leader in Chechnya, has shown loyalty to Putin but could also cause trouble in the North Caucasus region. His past actions and armed forces make him a figure to watch closely.
  2. The North Caucasus is home to many non-Russian people who have faced harsh treatment. As Russia weakens, there could be movements for independence in this area.
  3. Many people in the North Caucasus are unhappy with Russia's military actions, especially since they have lost many young men in the conflict. This growing resentment might lead to changes in the region soon.

Russian Revisionism

699 implied HN points • 18 Sep 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Disinformation Conflict International relations History
  1. Russia has a long history of spreading misinformation to hide the truth about its actions and policies. This dishonesty is a key part of its government strategy.
  2. Two major false narratives are currently promoted by Russia: one is that it is a great empire deserving of pride, and the other is that Ukraine is not a real country invaded by Russia for noble reasons.
  3. Disinformation tactics include tailoring messages to different groups and undermining Ukraine's efforts, showing how Russia manipulates information to divert blame and distract from its own wrongdoings.

A New World Order

679 implied HN points • 14 Sep 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Global Governance International relations
  1. A new global order is forming as powers like India and Saudi Arabia are stepping up, while Russia and China face challenges. This shift is changing how countries interact in the world.
  2. The G20 is evolving to include more voices from the Global South, especially after the African Union joined. This hints at a more balanced power dynamic in global discussions.
  3. India has been gaining influence, showing its potential as a leader for developing nations. It's boosting its economy and connections, moving ahead with significant projects like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor.

Expel Russia from UN

1099 implied HN points • 01 May 23
🌍 World Politics International Law Geopolitics Global Governance Security Council Conflict resolution
  1. Russia should not be on the UN Security Council because it is acting like a dictator and has committed war crimes. This is similar to putting a criminal in charge of the police.
  2. The UN Security Council has not been able to do its job because of Russia's veto power. A country that causes problems shouldn't have the ability to stop solutions.
  3. Countries like Ukraine and India deserve a permanent seat on the Security Council because of their significant contributions to the world. The UN should be reformed to reflect current realities and not be held back by a single nation.