Daily Chartbook

Daily Chartbook is a Substack focusing on economic and market trends through curated charts and insights. It covers aspects of the housing market, consumer behavior, global economic indicators, financial conditions, and sector-specific challenges, providing a broad view of current economic health and future expectations.

Housing Market Trends Consumer Behavior Global Economic Indicators Financial Conditions Sector-Specific Challenges Labor Market Dynamics Trade and Commerce Monetary Policy Impacts

Top posts of the year

And their main takeaways

Daily Chartbook #281

1414 implied HN points • 16 Sep 23
💰 Finance Markets Economy Investing Stocks Banks
  1. US home prices rose 3% year over year to $420,846 in August.
  2. Total number of homes for sale hit a record low in August, dropping 1.1% month over month.
  3. Nearly 60,000 home-purchase agreements were canceled in August, up from a year earlier.

Daily Chartbook #299

1414 implied HN points • 12 Oct 23
💰 Finance Mortgage Corporate
  1. US Weekly mortgage applications rose despite increasing rates.
  2. Percentage of outstanding 30-year mortgages have incentives for refinancing.
  3. There's a geoeconomic risk discount applied to global equity markets.
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Daily Chartbook #256

1362 implied HN points • 11 Aug 23
  1. New listings for homes for sale fell 16.5% year over year.
  2. Active listings dropped 17.9% compared to a year earlier.
  3. Median home sale price increased by 3% from a year earlier, the largest rise since November.

Daily Chartbook #238

1362 implied HN points • 18 Jul 23
  1. Home listings at an all-time low in June
  2. Median home sale price close to all-time high in June
  3. Smallest decline in home sale price in June compared to past months

Daily Chartbook #245

1362 implied HN points • 27 Jul 23
  1. New home sales dropped 2.5% last month but are still up almost 24% YoY.
  2. The US Census Bureau reports the largest decline in US home prices in the first half of 2023.
  3. There are 600k more realtors than there are homes for sale.

Daily Chartbook #216

1336 implied HN points • 13 Jun 23
  1. Trucking spot rates lower than 2019, not a relief for struggling carriers
  2. Companies holding $200 billion of excess inventory
  3. Bank lending standards tight, lending volumes down

Daily Chartbook is Going Paid

1336 implied HN points • 16 Oct 23
  1. Daily Chartbook will be transitioning to a paid subscription model starting November 1.
  2. There will be options for monthly and annual subscriptions, with special pricing for annual subscribers.
  3. A free, entry-level newsletter called DC Lite will be available alongside the paid subscription, providing 5 top charts and insights daily.

Daily Chartbook #269

1336 implied HN points • 30 Aug 23
  1. Home prices in America's 20 largest cities rose for the 4th straight month but are still down over 1% YoY.
  2. The FHFA House Price Index had a 3.1% YoY increase and marked the 6th consecutive monthly gain.
  3. Financial conditions are currently tight, indicated by the Real 10-Year Yield Less The Neutral Rate being at its highest level since before the last 4 recessions.

Daily Chartbook #302

1336 implied HN points • 17 Oct 23
  1. Empire State Manufacturing index fell in October but outlook remains optimistic.
  2. US government interest payments per day doubled from pre-pandemic levels to nearly $2bn in 2023.
  3. Cash to assets ratio for both aggregate and typical stocks is low, posing challenges in a restricted financing environment.

Daily Chartbook #244

1336 implied HN points • 26 Jul 23
  1. Home prices are rising more than expected for the past 3 months.
  2. Prices of single-family homes increased by 0.7% in May.
  3. Office transaction volumes decreased significantly compared to the previous year.

Daily Chartbook #257

1310 implied HN points • 12 Aug 23
  1. US home values reached a record $47 trillion in June due to a shortage of houses for sale
  2. Bank lending standards are tightening while financial conditions remain low
  3. Non-financial firms' net profit margins are twice as high as in the late 1990s despite recent contractions

Daily Chartbook #285

1310 implied HN points • 22 Sep 23
  1. Existing home sales dropped 0.7% MoM leaving sales down 15.3% YoY.
  2. Prices of existing homes have held firm with median price above $400,000 for three months.
  3. The Federal Reserve expects stronger growth, lower unemployment, and slightly cooler inflation.

Daily Chartbook #213

1310 implied HN points • 08 Jun 23
  1. Mortgage demand is slightly down, but the decrease is not as sharp as before.
  2. Cash buyers in U.S. real estate are increasing, with one-third of purchases being made in cash.
  3. Global GDP growth is projected to be 2.7% in 2023, the lowest rate since the global financial crisis.

Daily Chartbook #206

1310 implied HN points • 27 May 23
  1. Over 2.49 million US airline travelers per day over the last week, highest since August 2019.
  2. 27 large debtors filed for bankruptcy in 2023 compared to 40 in 2022.
  3. Personal Income and Spending rose significantly on a monthly basis in April, with spending soaring 0.8% and both rising year-over-year.

Daily Chartbook #234

1310 implied HN points • 12 Jul 23
  1. Home prices are expected to grow by 4.5% in the next 12 months.
  2. Office investment is predicted to decrease by 30% by the end of 2024.
  3. Excess savings could turn into precautionary savings based on the labor market's condition.

Daily Chartbook #250

1283 implied HN points • 03 Aug 23
  1. Heavy truck sales increased by 18% compared to the same time last year.
  2. Global trade appears to be recovering as seen in container throughput.
  3. Changes in the supply index indicate the possibility of future goods deflation.

Daily Chartbook #312

1283 implied HN points • 31 Oct 23
  1. Financial conditions are tight, similar to a year ago
  2. Non-mortgage interest payment as % of disposable income is high
  3. Financing costs mentioned in S&P 500 earnings calls have increased

Daily Chartbook #203

1283 implied HN points • 24 May 23
  1. New home sales surged 4.1% MoM.
  2. Median new home price fell 8.2% y/y to $420,800.
  3. Bankruptcies are increasing, led by discretionary and healthcare companies.

Daily Chartbook #214

1283 implied HN points • 09 Jun 23
  1. Some global sectors have pricing power to hike prices, while others are struggling with demand.
  2. Morgan Stanley's cycle indicator suggests the expansion from pandemic lows is nearing completion.
  3. 'True financial conditions' index shows alarming tightness, reminiscent of the 2008 credit crisis.

Daily Chartbook #236

1283 implied HN points • 14 Jul 23
  1. The median U.S. home-sale price increased by 1.5% from a year earlier, showing the first rise in nearly five months.
  2. A homebuyer with a $3,000 monthly budget can afford a $450,000 home with today's average rate, a decrease in purchasing power from earlier in the year.
  3. Higher-income households are becoming concerned about their ability to make minimum debt payments in the next three months.

Daily Chartbook #210

1283 implied HN points • 03 Jun 23
  1. Global food prices are seeing a plunge but food inflation remains steady.
  2. US economy added more jobs than expected in May, marking a positive trend.
  3. The unemployment rate in the US increased slightly in May but labor force participation rate improved.

Daily Chartbook #212

1283 implied HN points • 07 Jun 23
  1. Logistics manager index hits all-time low with no signs of improvement in freight market
  2. Demand for cardboard has fallen similar to past recessions
  3. Corporate fundamentals deteriorate with declining interest coverage and increasing leverage

Daily Chartbook #275

1283 implied HN points • 08 Sep 23
  1. There is a supply shortage in the housing market, leading to rising prices.
  2. Consumer sentiment towards homebuying is currently at multi-decade lows.
  3. Remote job postings are declining faster than other groups, indicating a shift in work dynamics.

Daily Chartbook #306

1283 implied HN points • 21 Oct 23
  1. The People's Bank of China provided a large sum of cash to lenders due to surging funding costs.
  2. The Cost of Capital for companies has risen, impacting financing decisions.
  3. Russell 2000 companies carry more debt compared to S&P 500 companies.

Daily Chartbook #254

1257 implied HN points • 09 Aug 23
  1. Shadow banks hold almost half of global financial assets.
  2. Fed's tightening cycle has increased funding costs for businesses.
  3. Corporate debt maturing is expected to rise sharply from 2024.

Daily Chartbook #310

1257 implied HN points • 27 Oct 23
  1. Pending home sales rose 1.1% month-over-month, the best since January 2023.
  2. New listings saw their first annual increase since July 2022.
  3. Active listings experienced their smallest decline since July and are at their highest level since February.

Daily Chartbook #283

1257 implied HN points • 20 Sep 23
  1. Home construction activity is fluctuating with varying trends in housing starts and building permits.
  2. US freight market is experiencing challenges with negative year-over-year comparisons and unexpected declines in September.
  3. Global GDP growth is expected to ease in 2024 after a modest expansion this year, according to OECD forecasts.

Daily Chartbook #277

1257 implied HN points • 12 Sep 23
  1. Logistics Managers Index improved after 4 months
  2. Q2 saw lowest number of S&P 500 companies citing 'inflation'
  3. Home price growth expectations are back at pre-pandemic levels

Daily Chartbook #230

1257 implied HN points • 06 Jul 23
  1. Logistics Managers Index reached all-time low
  2. Financial conditions eased due to higher equity prices
  3. Labor shortages mentioned less during company earnings calls

Daily Chartbook #303

1257 implied HN points • 18 Oct 23
  1. Homebuilder sentiment is at a low after an unexpected drop in October.
  2. The income needed to afford a home has increased significantly since the start of the pandemic.
  3. Global ocean container rates have hit a 5-year low.

Daily Chartbook #259

1257 implied HN points • 16 Aug 23
  1. Homebuilder sentiment deteriorated in August with all components, like prospective buyers traffic, falling.
  2. US and EU commercial real estate is a top credit concern among FMS investors.
  3. High inflation and hawkish central banks are the biggest tail risks for FMS investors.

Daily Chartbook #201

1257 implied HN points • 20 May 23
  1. The treasury cash balance is close to Yellen's minimum balance redline of $50bn.
  2. US business activity shows minimal growth based on the World Economics SMI index.
  3. Unemployment tends to rise after tightening cycles, with job loss estimates predicting a downturn.

Daily Chartbook #205

1257 implied HN points • 26 May 23
  1. Pending home sales in April were disappointing, unchanged from March and down 22.6% YoY.
  2. A global deflation shock is expected due to the reverse of stretched delivery times, leading to goods deflation.
  3. The US economy grew by 1.3% QtQ in Q1, which was above estimates but below Q4's growth.

Daily Chartbook #270

1257 implied HN points • 31 Aug 23
  1. Pending home sales rose 0.9% in July, surprising analysts.
  2. Real estate investors saw a 45% drop in home purchases compared to last year's second quarter.
  3. Rent growth turned negative last month for the first time since the pandemic began.

Daily Chartbook #247

1231 implied HN points • 29 Jul 23
  1. A first-time homebuyer needs to earn $64,500 per year to afford a typical 'starter' home in the U.S., a 13% increase from the previous year.
  2. Household debt service in the U.S. remains low despite higher interest rates.
  3. Countries that have raised policy rates show mostly positive GDP growth and decreasing unemployment rates.