Net Interest β’ 32 implied HN points β’ 27 Feb 26
- Bond and equity traders behave like two distinct tribes with different cultures and priorities; bond traders prize seriousness and protecting principal while equity traders chase upside, and their relative status has shifted over time.
- Banks act as transformation engines that turn debt into equity by holding portfolios of loans and bonds funded partly by shareholders, so you need to look at fixed income to understand banks.
- Analysts warn a rapid AI-driven shock could sharply raise defaults β UBS projects high yield 3β6%, leveraged loans 8β10% and private credit 14β15% β risking contagion into public credit markets. That outcome would strain capital adequacy at financial institutions, and private credit vehicles and BDCs are already showing early signs of stress.