The hottest Mortgage Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

Credit Access at Fannie & Freddie

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 147 implied HN points • 11 Nov 25
💰 Finance Mortgage
  1. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are changing credit score rules, which could help more people access mortgages. This is a positive step, especially for those with lower credit scores.
  2. There's a concern that past events, like the 2008 financial crisis, make people wary of easing lending standards. Many people still express fear about potential risks in the mortgage market.
  3. The current changes to mortgage access are different from the past crisis. Ensuring loans are available to responsible buyers could boost homeownership and help stabilize the housing market.

July ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool, Early Signs of Homeowner Risk Emerge

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 248 implied HN points • 07 Jul 25
💰 Finance Mortgage
  1. Home prices are cooling down, with some areas seeing more significant drops. This could affect homeowners' equity and lead to financial challenges.
  2. Many people are using adjustable-rate mortgages or temporary buydown options to manage monthly payments. While this can help now, it may create issues later when rates increase.
  3. Student loan debts are becoming a bigger problem for homeowners, increasing the risk of them falling behind on mortgage payments. Almost 30% of FHA borrowers also have student loans, and those struggling with student debt are more likely to have mortgage issues.

Daily Chartbook #299

Daily Chartbook • 1414 implied HN points • 12 Oct 23
💰 Finance Mortgage
  1. US Weekly mortgage applications rose despite increasing rates.
  2. Percentage of outstanding 30-year mortgages have incentives for refinancing.
  3. There's a geoeconomic risk discount applied to global equity markets.

Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 129 implied HN points • 09 Jan 25
💰 Finance Mortgage
  1. There won't be a big drop in home prices because most people aren't selling under distress like before. Homeowners are in a better position now with more equity and low-rate mortgages.
  2. Mortgage debt is increasing, but not alarmingly. The current lending standards are stricter than during past bubbles, so it's less risky.
  3. Many new mortgages are going to borrowers with strong credit scores. This means that lending practices are healthy and borrowers are more qualified.

MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q3 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 14 Nov 25
💰 Finance Mortgage
  1. The mortgage delinquency rate rose to 3.99% in Q3 2025, which is higher than both the previous quarter and last year.
  2. FHA loans are seeing the worst performance, with serious delinquencies increasing significantly compared to conventional loans.
  3. Factors like a weaker job market, increased personal debts, and rising costs are putting stress on FHA homeowners, making it harder for them to keep up with their mortgage payments.
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Concerns Brewing?

Spilled Coffee • 72 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💰 Finance Mortgage
  1. Currently, housing is facing serious issues with high mortgage rates, making it a tough market for buyers. The demand for mortgages has dropped to its lowest level in over a decade.
  2. Home construction is slowing down, with builder inventories at a high level not seen since the 2008 housing bubble. This can have a big impact on the job market in construction.
  3. Worries are also rising in the stock market and labor market, indicating that many important sectors are feeling pressure right now.

The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q1

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 12 Jun 25
💰 Finance Mortgage
  1. In the past, many homeowners borrowed against their home equity, calling it a 'Home ATM', but this led to financial problems when home prices fell. Today, most homeowners have solid equity in their homes, unlike back then.
  2. Mortgage debt increased by $45 billion in the first quarter of 2025, showing a slowdown compared to previous quarters. This is part of a larger trend of rising mortgage debt as people buy new homes.
  3. Mortgage debt as a percentage of the economy is at 44.8%, which is much healthier compared to the 73.1% peak during the housing crisis. This means homeowners today generally have more equity and better financial stability.

ICE Mortgage Monitor: “Lowest calendar year home price growth of any year since 2011”

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 52 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
💰 Finance Mortgage
  1. Home price growth was the slowest since 2011, ending the year at just 3.4%. This is significantly lower than the growth rates seen in previous years.
  2. The number of homes for sale increased by 22% in 2024, which is the highest level of inventory since mid-2020. Some markets are even back to pre-pandemic levels.
  3. Mortgage delinquencies have started to rise, especially with FHA and VA loans. This suggests potential issues in mortgage performance could become more prominent in 2025.

MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
💰 Finance Mortgage
  1. Mortgage delinquencies slightly increased to 3.98% in Q4 2024 compared to the previous quarter. This means more people are missing their mortgage payments.
  2. FHA and VA loans are seeing a bigger rise in delinquency rates compared to conventional loans. This is concerning, especially as the gaps in these rates are growing.
  3. States like Florida and South Carolina had the largest increases in delinquency rates. Natural disasters, like hurricanes, may be partly to blame for this rise.

MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decreased Slightly in Q2 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 14 Aug 25
💰 Finance Mortgage
  1. Mortgage delinquency rates have slightly decreased in Q2 2025, reaching 3.93%, which is below the historic average.
  2. Although overall delinquencies are down, serious delinquencies for loans 90 days or more past due have increased.
  3. The labor market shows some weakness and could lead to future increases in mortgage delinquencies, even though current rates remain low.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in May

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 01 Jul 25
💰 Finance Mortgage
  1. The serious delinquency rates for single-family homes have decreased slightly in May. This shows some improvement from the previous month.
  2. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's delinquency rates are still higher than they were last year, but they are below pre-pandemic levels.
  3. Multi-family delinquency rates are nearing their highest levels since 2011, not counting the pandemic, indicating some stress in that sector.

The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for 30-year Mortgage Rates

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 18 Feb 25
💰 Finance Mortgage
  1. The neutral rate, which helps determine monetary policy, has increased back to levels seen before the financial crisis. This means current monetary policy might not be restricting the economy as much as previously thought.
  2. Some economists believe that the actual neutral rate is higher than expected, which could indicate that interest rates may not be as high as people fear.
  3. Fed Chair Powell agreed that the neutral rate has risen significantly since before the pandemic, suggesting a change in how we should view economic policy now.

Another Follow-Up Against Agglomeration

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
💰 Finance Mortgage
  1. The mortgage crackdown post-2008 led to a housing shortage, impacting construction of single-family homes in different cities.
  2. There is a correlation between the drop in construction activity after 2008 and metro area incomes, where lower income areas experienced a greater decline.
  3. Trends suggest housing constraints may lead to higher incomes, impacting new single-family home construction and mortgage lending standards across different cities.

ICE Mortgage Monitor: Refinance Activity Increased Especially for Rate/Term Refinances

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 09 Dec 24
💰 Finance Mortgage
  1. Refinance activity surged in September and October, with over 300,000 borrowers taking advantage of lower interest rates. This was the highest refinance volume in 2.5 years.
  2. Mortgage delinquencies decreased slightly in October, dropping below pre-pandemic levels. However, serious delinquencies are still slowly rising year over year.
  3. Home prices saw a small increase in October, with growth edging up to 3.0%. But there are signs that this rate might soften again soon due to rising interest rates and potential demand pullbacks.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Mortgage
  1. Single-family serious delinquency rates showed a slight increase in October, marking 0.55% for Freddie Mac and 0.52% for Fannie Mae. This is still lower than delinquency rates before the pandemic.
  2. Multi-family serious delinquency rates also rose, with Fannie Mae's rate reaching its highest since 2011, excluding pandemic data. This indicates growing challenges in the multi-family housing market.
  3. Delinquent loans are defined as being three or more payments past due or in foreclosure. Despite some increases, many recent loans from 2009 to 2023 are still faring well, indicating overall improvement in loan performance.

2023: The Year of The Cash ISA

The Fat Software Engineer • 30 implied HN points • 03 May 23
💰 Finance Mortgage
  1. Consider opening a Cash ISA with a good interest rate if you might need the money in less than 5 years.
  2. Research different options and banks to find the best interest rate for a Cash ISA.
  3. Understand that with high inflation, even with a 3.4% interest rate, the buying power of money in a Cash ISA can still decrease.

Alert: Central Bank of Nigeria Circular FPR/DIR/PUB/CIR/001/029

RegAlert • 0 implied HN points • 30 Sep 21
💰 Finance Mortgage
  1. The Central Bank of Nigeria issued a circular listing primary mortgage banks as of September 30, 2021, for financial institutions to comply with the stated requirements.
  2. The list includes various mortgage banks located in different states across Nigeria.
  3. Financial institutions are advised to review the circular and ensure they are in compliance with the regulations.