Philoinvestor

Philoinvestor Substack explores the mindset of a business owner and long-term investor, focusing on global economic trends, stock market analyses, and investment strategies. It covers company-specific insights, market dynamics, geopolitical impacts on economies, and personal investment philosophies, alongside discussions on achieving success and balance in investing and life.

Stock Market Analysis Investment Strategies Global Economic Trends Company Insights Geopolitical Impact Investor Mindset Market Dynamics Personal Development Long-term Investing Economic Policies

The hottest Substack posts of Philoinvestor

And their main takeaways

NETFLIX: Content is King but distribution is God.

176 implied HN points • 14 May 22
  1. Netflix's success was in pivoting from a DVD-by-Mail service to online streaming and eventually creating their own content.
  2. Netflix's future potential lies in increasing subscriber base, balancing content spent with ARPU, and introducing an ad-supported model.
  3. The key to success in the content streaming business is achieving scale, effective monetization, and adapting to changing consumer preferences like adding ads and games.

So you wanna be an investor?

255 implied HN points • 05 Dec 21
  1. Being an investor requires hard-earned skills and talents, not just luck.
  2. Don't fall for excuses or easy money - success in investing requires discipline and patience.
  3. To succeed as an investor, focus on being a good business analyst, an independent thinker, and having the ability to tolerate high levels of pain.

Notes on Trading using Tom Dante's teachings.

58 implied HN points • 26 May 23
💰 Finance Trading Strategies Psychology Mistakes Discipline
  1. You are the edge in trading, not the systems.
  2. Tom Dante created the Demon Finder tool to identify and clear trading mistakes.
  3. Common errors in trading include boredom, FOMO, fear, moving stops prematurely, biased thinking, and lack of discipline.
  4. Remember in trading: no free trades, don't rely solely on momentum, profitability in a niche is useless without patience.

Why you want stocks to go down

176 implied HN points • 03 Feb 22
  1. Professional investors focus more on long-term business progress than day-to-day stock prices.
  2. Market downturns present opportunities to buy stocks at lower prices and improve long-term returns.
  3. Understanding human psychology and cognitive biases can help investors stay calm and take advantage of market fluctuations.
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Is Elon flying too close to the sun?

137 implied HN points • 25 Apr 22
  1. In Greek mythology, Icarus ignored warnings and flew too close to the sun, resulting in a tragic fall from the sky.
  2. Eike Batista's aggressive business risks and financial practices led to bankruptcy and legal issues.
  3. Elon Musk's success with Tesla raises questions about sustainable market cap, potential risks, and financial decisions.

Philoinvestor: An autointerview

157 implied HN points • 23 Feb 22
  1. Invest in businesses where the stock price is lower than its intrinsic value.
  2. Consider the quality of a business by analyzing its ability to generate cash flows over time.
  3. Understand that market inefficiencies exist and aim to benefit from them as an investor.

Shipping as options trading

157 implied HN points • 10 Feb 22
  1. Investing in a ship is like buying call options on freight prices and ship value.
  2. Buying a ship at a good price can lead to high returns when freight rates increase.
  3. Adding leverage to a shipping investment can increase upside potential but also risk fragility.

You can't beat me 👊

196 implied HN points • 01 Nov 21
  1. Passive investors may not be as risk averse as they claim, taking on individual stock risks by buying indexes
  2. Passive investing can bring good returns, but also exposes investors to risks when market conditions change
  3. Active management allows flexibility in decision-making based on forward IRR, adapting to market changes and risks

What the hell is happening? May 2022

117 implied HN points • 23 May 22
  1. Mega caps are selling off while equities with more reasonable valuations are holding up
  2. Buying treasuries may not protect from higher inflation as inflation has increased since last July
  3. The Fed is focused on taming inflation, even if it means sacrificing stock market valuations

Georgi Dinkov, Interesting Interview #1

157 implied HN points • 22 Dec 21
  1. Georgi Dinkov's background indicates varied experiences in computer science and biochemistry.
  2. Facebook's shift to Metaverse aims to monopolize human attention through technology advances.
  3. Investing wisely requires ensuring good health and a clear mind, free from stress and distractions.

Printing Money at RCI Hospitality Holdings (RICK)

98 implied HN points • 15 Jun 22
  1. RCI Hospitality Holdings has a profitable business model with strong cash flow and growth potential through acquisitions and franchising.
  2. The company focuses on strategic capital allocation, buying clubs at attractive multiples, expanding Bombshells locations, and utilizing excess cash for share buybacks at good prices.
  3. RCI's CEO, Eric Langan, demonstrates transparent and prudent leadership, with a long-term vision for the company's success and growth.

How to buy your first tanker! (and sell it for 10x)

78 implied HN points • 11 Aug 22
  1. Learn from successful investors like James Tisch who bought six tankers in the 1980s for insight into capital-intensive businesses.
  2. Consider capital-intensive seaborne businesses for investment opportunities.
  3. Research and understand the rationale behind successful investment decisions to improve your investing strategy.

Farfetch to 10X?

137 implied HN points • 11 Jan 22
  1. Farfetch is more than just a marketplace, it's a technology stack for the global fashion industry.
  2. Jose Neves used a strategic approach called the Wedge to build Farfetch by starting with independent boutiques.
  3. Farfetch is positioning itself not just as a retailer but as a technology company and platform for the luxury fashion industry.

Global effects from the Russo-Ukrainian war

117 implied HN points • 13 Mar 22
  1. The Russo-Ukrainian war has global economic and financial implications.
  2. The West responded to the conflict with economic sanctions against Russia.
  3. Globalization is shifting towards a form of globalized protectionism, impacting economies and currencies.

Valaris, literally striking oil.

157 implied HN points • 18 Oct 21
  1. Valaris emerged from bankruptcy with net debt of $0 million and has potential for cash flow from its active, leased, and stacked rigs.
  2. The offshore drilling sector faces challenges with rig maintenance costs, but there is potential upside if market conditions improve.
  3. Investing in Valaris offers a low-risk, high-reward opportunity with potential for significant value generation in a positive scenario.

The Spell of Abe

78 implied HN points • 10 Jul 22
  1. Shinzo Abe's policies to revive Japan were known as Abenomics and included three arrows.
  2. The speaker presented a critique of these policies as well as their potential outcomes.
  3. Analogies were drawn with the economic situation in Greece at the time.

Don't open Elon's box.

98 implied HN points • 17 Apr 22
  1. Pandora's box in Greek myth is about the consequences of curiosity.
  2. Twitter's financial history shows challenges in creating value for shareholders.
  3. Consider Twitter's convertible notes as a potentially better investment option than equity.

Elon Musk at the gate.

98 implied HN points • 14 Apr 22
  1. Elon Musk offers to take Twitter private at $54.20 per share.
  2. Elon's move to acquire Twitter may be driven by a need to utilize cash and gain influence.
  3. Elon could benefit whether Twitter accepts or rejects his offer.

On Value Investing - Part One

137 implied HN points • 24 Nov 21
  1. Value investing involves buying undervalued companies and holding them to compound gains.
  2. To succeed, investors must balance quality and quantity in their investments.
  3. Integrating second-level thinking and positive risk/reward asymmetry are key for intelligent value bets.

Rufus: Portrait of an anti-investor.

117 implied HN points • 03 Dec 21
  1. Conviction is needed to make money in investments.
  2. Price action often motivates investors more than fundamentals.
  3. Investors should focus on value and not get caught up in market whims.

Rufus: Quest for the safe stock

98 implied HN points • 22 Jan 22
  1. In investing, focus on the intrinsic value and the price you pay for it, rather than market trends or analyst reports.
  2. Avoid considering safe stocks as they can still crash; instead, assess risk/reward and price/intrinsic value.
  3. Passive investing tied to Big Tech success can be risky; always think for yourself and deconstruct market narratives.

Shaun Gold of YouTopian Journey, Interesting Interview #2

78 implied HN points • 27 Mar 22
  1. Shaun Gold is a multi-talented entrepreneur who experimented in various fields to reach his goals.
  2. YouTopian Journey, a comic book about mental wellness, aims to inspire and motivate people for the long term.
  3. To succeed, be prepared to face challenges, seek constructive criticism, and stay focused on your goals, even if it means walking a lonely path.

Investing = Endless Poker

98 implied HN points • 19 Nov 21
  1. Investing can be compared to an endless game of poker, with continuous decisions to make.
  2. Both poker and investing involve understanding rules, having a strategy, and adapting to changing circumstances.
  3. In investing, knowing what you own and having the confidence to make decisions are crucial for success.

Rufus: The first-level thinker

58 implied HN points • 27 Apr 22
  1. Short-term price movements reflect market's attempts to value securities.
  2. Investors need to balance first-level and second-level thinking for success.
  3. Focus on valuing businesses and buying them at a discount for long-term success.

The dimension of time in financial markets

78 implied HN points • 15 Dec 21
  1. Time has a significant influence on asset prices in financial markets.
  2. Investors' time preferences can shift based on factors like fear, uncertainty, and optimism.
  3. Understanding the time preference environment is crucial for making intelligent investment decisions.

Duolingo, platformizing learning.

58 implied HN points • 12 Apr 22
  1. Duolingo is a language learning platform using gamification and AI/ML for effective learning.
  2. The company generates revenue through Duolingo Plus, English Test, advertising, and in-app purchases.
  3. Duolingo is in investment mode, focusing on R&D, expanding its product offerings, and creating value for future monetization.

Apple's Microsoft moment.

19 implied HN points • 10 Apr 23
💼 Business Antitrust Investing Monopoly Stock Market Global Markets
  1. Sherman Act case against Apple is increasingly possible, with the EU already pushing for it.
  2. Apple may be in a monopolistic position due to its ecosystem that benefits all services, potentially leading to antitrust concerns.
  3. Apple's high valuation and challenges like the Sherman Act case and geopolitical tensions could impact its stock performance in the future.

Why gentlemen prefer real estate.

58 implied HN points • 01 Apr 22
  1. Investors feel safer with real estate due to perceived safety, steady appreciation, and predictable criteria for investment.
  2. Average investors tend to shy away from equities due to perceived higher risk, exposure to corporate failures, and view of stock market as a casino.
  3. Psychological biases, illusion of control in real estate, and past tailwinds have led to a preference for real estate over equities among certain investors.

💥DUMP YOUR CRYPTO💥

78 implied HN points • 27 Oct 21
  1. The first crypto cycle saw a massive rally and bust triggered by rampant speculation and misinformation.
  2. Crypto Cycle #2 has been driven by DeFi, NFTs, and the belief in crypto as an inflation hedge.
  3. Valuing crypto is challenging and the risk/reward ratio at current levels might not be favorable.

Austrian economics and the good son, bad son story.

78 implied HN points • 27 Oct 21
  1. When faced with economic challenges, it is important to adapt and restructure finances to match the current situation.
  2. The story illustrates the concept of good economic stakeholders being burdened by the actions of bad economic stakeholders.
  3. Long-term success in economics requires responsible decision-making that focuses on sustainable growth rather than short-term gains.

Twitter Threads 🐦

58 implied HN points • 16 Feb 22
  1. Philoinvestor shares interesting Twitter threads on various investment topics.
  2. The threads cover a wide range of subjects like market insights, critiques of studies, and investing tips.
  3. This post provides a curated collection of valuable investing knowledge from Philoinvestor's Twitter account.

Double Standards & Great Expectations

58 implied HN points • 02 Dec 21
  1. Great track records are only recognized after they happen, not while they are happening.
  2. Investing is not like shopping for shoes - past performance doesn't guarantee future returns.
  3. Big institutions may have resources but smaller firms often have more at stake and focus on client benefits over their own.

Money Vs Skill

58 implied HN points • 18 Nov 21
  1. Having money alone is not enough to make more money. It requires skills and experience.
  2. Successful investing involves patience, intelligence, and a focus on long-term gains.
  3. Earning above average returns in investing is a result of hard work, not luck.

Investing with a conservative mindset

39 implied HN points • 24 Nov 21
  1. Conservative investing doesn't mean only making safe investments.
  2. Safe assets still carry risk and volatility, and may not always preserve value.
  3. A conservative investor focuses on buying assets at fair prices, balancing price with value.

Avon Protection.

39 implied HN points • 14 Nov 21
  1. Avon Protection is facing challenges with their body armor business due to product testing failures, leading to a strategic review.
  2. Avon's core strategy includes growing their core business, selective product development, and value-enhancing acquisitions.
  3. Despite setbacks in the body armor business, Avon has strong and stable lines in helmets and respiratory equipment, with potential for growth through acquisitions.

The Democracy of Capitalism

39 implied HN points • 12 Nov 21
  1. Use capitalism to your benefit and make your own choices.
  2. Investing is democratic - anyone can do it.
  3. Accept volatility in markets to reap handsome rewards.