The hottest Central Banks Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

The Fed's Secret Confession: The Beige Book Reveals a Troubling US Economy

COVID Reason • 436 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economic Trends Market Analysis Central Banks Consumer behavior Global Economy
  1. The recent Beige Book shows that the U.S. economy is actually slowing down, not improving. Many regions reported economic decline, especially in manufacturing.
  2. There are rising concerns about job security and consumer spending. People are cutting back on spending due to financial worries and many companies are freezing hiring.
  3. Global economic issues are also affecting the U.S. market. Weak demand for products and looming recession signals are worrying for businesses and consumers alike.

The Gold Endgame Begins

The Dollar Endgame • 559 implied HN points • 02 Apr 24
💰 Finance Gold Market Manipulation Central Banks
  1. Gold prices have been soaring recently, possibly due to China's influence and central banks accelerating their gold purchases.
  2. The gold market has been subject to manipulation by central banks through various means like buying/selling gold, gold leasing, and engaging in derivatives.
  3. There is evidence of market manipulation in the gold industry, including spoofing tactics by traders leading to inflated or deflated prices, and the potential for a significant impact on the gold market if large investors start taking physical delivery.

Market Misreads Services Inflation And the BOJ

Japan Economy Watch • 1018 implied HN points • 04 Jan 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis Inflation Central Banks Economic data Monetary Policy
  1. Market players and forecasters may be misreading the intentions of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) about inflation and wage data.
  2. The BOJ's ambiguous messages and contradictory statements are causing confusion in the market.
  3. Evaluating services inflation and wage hikes requires careful consideration of data and not jumping to conclusions.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

The Bank of Japan July Surprise

The Informationist • 1100 implied HN points • 30 Jul 23
💰 Finance Market Dynamics Central Banks Bond Market Interest Rates Investments
  1. The Bank of Japan recently made an announcement that caused the USD and Japanese bond yields to shift.
  2. The implications of the Bank of Japan's actions have affected US Treasuries and could lead to the US Treasury issuing more debt.
  3. Investors are advised to strategically manage portfolios due to potential market shifts and economic uncertainties.

Corporate profits were biggest driver of inflation in Europe, IMF admits

Geopolitical Economy Report • 538 implied HN points • 27 Jun 23
💰 Finance Inflation Corporate Profits Central Banks Monetary Policy
  1. Corporate profits have been a major driver of inflation in Europe since 2021, with companies increasing prices more than the rising costs of imported energy.
  2. The IMF suggests that companies may need to reduce profit margins to help keep inflation in line with targets set by the European Central Bank.
  3. The study challenges the traditional view that inflation is solely caused by demand-pull factors, highlighting how excessive profit increases by corporations can also drive inflation.

Net Liquidity

The Dollar Endgame • 299 implied HN points • 05 Dec 23
💰 Finance Market Liquidity Financial system Central Banks
  1. Liquidity is more than just central bank reserves; it's about the available cash for trading financial assets.
  2. Global liquidity, different from traditional money supply measures, is crucial for funding transactions and rolling over debt in financial markets.
  3. Increases in liquidity drive up prices of assets like equities, bonds, and cryptocurrencies as more dollars chase the same investments.

The NY Fed Trading Desk's Time to Shine?

The Overshoot • 373 implied HN points • 01 Sep 23
💰 Finance Central Banks Market conditions Government debt Bond Market Monetary Policy
  1. Central banks should consider being more active in making markets for government debt directly.
  2. During the Covid crisis, bond dealers did not step in to stabilize markets, prompting central banks to intervene.
  3. Constraints on dealers may have led to market instability, prompting discussion on potentially revising regulatory choices.

The Sword of Damocles

The Dollar Endgame • 319 implied HN points • 30 Aug 23
💰 Finance Global Markets Economic Theory Central Banks Currency Markets Monetary Policy
  1. The global financial system heavily depends on the US dollar, causing a constant demand for dollars worldwide.
  2. Triffin's Dilemma and the Dollar Milkshake Theory highlight the systemic risks and implications of the US dollar's dominance.
  3. The Fed plays a critical role in stabilizing the global financial system by supplying dollars; any missteps could lead to widespread financial instability.

Inflation: Japan Stands Alone, Part I

Japan Economy Watch • 439 implied HN points • 06 Sep 22
💰 Finance Inflation Interest Rates Central Banks Global Economy
  1. Different countries are experiencing different types of inflation, each requiring unique solutions. Japan faces a dilemma with its low headline inflation and core inflation dominated by food and energy.
  2. Central bankers focus on core inflation for long-term trends while considering demand-pull and cost-push sources of inflation. Japan's inflation is mainly driven by cost-push forces, unlike the US and Europe where demand-pull forces are stronger.
  3. Dealing with cost-push inflation is more complex as it involves supply chain disruptions and input price spikes. Timing the response to inflation and adjusting interest rates involves balancing economic growth and avoiding recession.

The Outlook in Pictures

Things I Didn't Learn in School • 78 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
💰 Finance Markets Central Banks Inflation Technology Companies Geopolitical
  1. Central banks are easing or planning to ease monetary policies, influenced by various economic factors worldwide.
  2. The rise of technology, particularly AI, is expected to boost productivity and impact asset markets, potentially leading to financial risks in the future.
  3. Inflation is under control due to labor-saving technology, weak growth in certain regions, and the US's ability to adjust energy production based on market conditions.

Subscriber Commentary & Review Thread (#15)

The Upheaval • 261 implied HN points • 30 May 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Central Banks Digital Currency Liberalism Authoritarianism
  1. The Gulf States are rapidly changing due to economic boom, attracting global wealth and talents, leading to potential reshaping of global liberalism.
  2. Central banks are pushing forward with the development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) despite concerns over totalitarian state surveillance and control.
  3. Global trends suggest a shift towards stable authoritarian regimes with liberal elements, possibly leading to a new form of governance different from the West or China.

The Financial System is in a Death Spiral

Anxiety Addiction & Ascension • 59 implied HN points • 09 May 23
💰 Finance Economy Inflation Monetary Policy Central Banks Financial system
  1. The financial system is facing a crisis with inflation rates far exceeding official figures, leading to a significant decrease in purchasing power for individuals.
  2. Central banks are struggling to control inflation through traditional methods like interest rate hikes due to the risk of causing economic turmoil and further financial instability.
  3. There are no easy solutions to the current financial crisis - whether governments keep printing money or raise interest rates, both options have significant downsides that can lead to widespread poverty.

Strange books on the internet distributing words are no basis for a system of finance

featherlessbipeds • 58 implied HN points • 03 Aug 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Central Banks Inflation Fiscal policy Quantitative Easing
  1. The book 'The Dollar Endgame' argues that the US Dollar's reserve currency status leads to increasing demand for USD denominated assets like government debt.
  2. The book presents definitions of economic terms like inflation, central banks, and monetary policy, but these definitions are criticized for being inaccurate or misleading.
  3. Fiscal and monetary policies are meant to be somewhat independent but coordinated to prevent economic mismanagement.

Forward Guidance

The Last Bear Standing • 133 implied HN points • 03 Mar 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Central Banks Inflation Interest Rates
  1. The Dot Plot is the Fed's way of showing where they think interest rates will go in the future.
  2. Yield Curve Control is when central banks adjust short-term and long-term rates to tackle inflation and maintain financial stability.
  3. The Fed's Dilemma involves trying to raise rates to tackle inflation while avoiding destabilizing long-duration assets and maintaining financial stability.

CBDC Will Be Used For "Control", ECB President Admits In Vid Chat With 'Fake Zelensky'

Global Community Weekly (GloCom) • 39 implied HN points • 08 Apr 23
🌍 World Politics Control Digital Currency Central Banks
  1. Central Banks in the US and EU are moving towards digital currency to have control over people
  2. European Central Bank President admitted that a digital euro will be used for control over payments
  3. Prank video showed ECB President talking about limited control in digital euro and potential dangers

Yi Gang on China's Digital Yuan

Pekingnology • 22 implied HN points • 10 Feb 24
💰 Finance Digital Currency Central Banks Payment Systems Regulations
  1. China's digital yuan operates on a 'possession equals ownership' principle, serving both individuals and companies with a retail path, different from other wholesale digital currencies.
  2. The digital yuan does not compete with WeChat Pay or Alipay but complements them, ensuring privacy while complying with anti-money laundering regulations.
  3. The dual-layer structure of China's digital yuan, centralized management, and measures to prevent disintermediation help minimize impacts on monetary policy and ensure balance in the financial system.

Why Does the State Have a Monopoly on Money?

Economic Forces • 8 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
💰 Finance Monetary System Central Banks Inflation Policy Making
  1. The state's monopoly on money is motivated by the ability to generate quick revenue.
  2. One key reason for this lasting monopoly is the state's need for emergency financing, especially during wars.
  3. For the state to maintain the monopoly over money, it needs to commit to long-run price stability, ensuring the currency's purchasing power is preserved over time.

Japan is the playbook, not the exception

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 13 Mar 24
💰 Finance Debt Management Central Banks Interest Rates
  1. Japan manages extremely high debt levels through financial repression techniques, like central banks purchasing government debt and influencing bond yields.
  2. The duration mismatch between government assets and liabilities incentivizes keeping interest rates low for financial stability.
  3. Artificially low long-term bond yields in Japan lead to wealth redistribution towards older, wealthier households, potentially causing social tension.

Against Cassandras: The government debt ‘bomb’

Klement on Investing • 5 implied HN points • 12 Jul 23
💰 Finance Debt Inflation Monetization Interest Rates Central Banks
  1. Having high levels of government debt doesn't always lead to default or ruin.
  2. Countries like Japan have managed high debt levels for decades without catastrophic consequences.
  3. Central banks can intervene to keep debt costs low, and factors like demographics and reserve currency status can help sustain government debt.

Alert: Central Bank of Nigeria Circular FMD/DIR/PUB/CIR/001/011

RegAlert • 0 implied HN points • 30 Jan 24
💰 Finance Regulations Financial Markets Transparency Market Manipulation Central Banks
  1. Financial institutions must provide transparent pricing in financial market transactions to avoid market manipulation.
  2. The Central Bank of Nigeria warns against underreporting transaction rates and using 'second cheques' as these practices will be sanctioned.
  3. Compliance with CBN rules and guidelines is crucial for a well-functioning and transparent financial market.

25% of the world is either in recession or is going through an economic stagnation

Global Markets Investor • 0 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
💰 Finance Global Economy Recession Central Banks Interest Rates
  1. About 25% of the world is facing recession or economic stagnation, impacting major economies like Japan, United Kingdom, Eurozone, Canada, among others.
  2. Countries such as Japan, UK, Denmark, Moldova, and Peru are in recession, experiencing economic decline over quarters.
  3. Economies in stagnation include the Euro Area, Germany, Canada, Sweden, and Saudi Arabia, facing challenges due to factors like interest rates, inflation, and oil production cuts.

The Fed, Interest Rates and Stock Prices: Fighting the Fear Factor

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 04 Sep 15
💰 Finance Interest Rates Stock Markets Central Banks Economic Policy Market Trends
  1. The Federal Reserve doesn't directly set all interest rates. They mainly control the Fed Funds rate, which doesn’t affect most people directly.
  2. Low interest rates are not solely because of the Fed. They reflect low inflation and slow economic growth, not just central bank actions.
  3. High stock prices don't only result from low interest rates. They also depend on company earnings and cash flows, which are currently under pressure.

Dealing with Low Interest rates: Investing and Corporate Finance Lessons

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 03 Apr 15
💰 Finance Investing Economics Corporate Finance Interest Rates Central Banks
  1. Low interest rates are a global issue, and they can create confusion for investors and businesses. It's important to understand that these rates are affected by factors like inflation and economic growth, not just central bank policies.
  2. Central banks do influence interest rates, but they don't completely control them. Instead, real fundamentals of the economy play a much bigger role, so investors should focus on those instead of solely following central bank actions.
  3. When dealing with low interest rates, investors should adapt their strategies. Instead of longing for 'normal' interest rates from the past, they need to base their decisions on the current market conditions and remain flexible with their assumptions.

Top 5 financial posts of the trading week 12/2024

Global Markets Investor • 0 implied HN points • 25 Mar 24
💰 Finance Stocks Investing Economy Debt Central Banks
  1. The financial week had major fluctuations like Nvidia's stock performance and grocery price hikes.
  2. Global government debt has soared to $82 trillion with central bank balance sheets expected to rise again above $27 trillion.
  3. Central banks like the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank made significant interest rate policy changes recently.