The hottest Central Banks Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

The Gold Endgame Begins

The Dollar Endgame • 559 implied HN points • 02 Apr 24
💰 Finance Gold Market Manipulation Central Banks
  1. Gold prices have been soaring recently, possibly due to China's influence and central banks accelerating their gold purchases.
  2. The gold market has been subject to manipulation by central banks through various means like buying/selling gold, gold leasing, and engaging in derivatives.
  3. There is evidence of market manipulation in the gold industry, including spoofing tactics by traders leading to inflated or deflated prices, and the potential for a significant impact on the gold market if large investors start taking physical delivery.
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The Bank of Japan July Surprise

The Informationist • 1100 implied HN points • 30 Jul 23
💰 Finance Market Dynamics Central Banks Interest Rates Investments
  1. The Bank of Japan recently made an announcement that caused the USD and Japanese bond yields to shift.
  2. The implications of the Bank of Japan's actions have affected US Treasuries and could lead to the US Treasury issuing more debt.
  3. Investors are advised to strategically manage portfolios due to potential market shifts and economic uncertainties.

Net Liquidity

The Dollar Endgame • 299 implied HN points • 05 Dec 23
💰 Finance Financial system Central Banks
  1. Liquidity is more than just central bank reserves; it's about the available cash for trading financial assets.
  2. Global liquidity, different from traditional money supply measures, is crucial for funding transactions and rolling over debt in financial markets.
  3. Increases in liquidity drive up prices of assets like equities, bonds, and cryptocurrencies as more dollars chase the same investments.

The Outlook in Pictures

Things I Didn't Learn in School • 78 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
💰 Finance Markets Central Banks Inflation Technology Companies Geopolitical
  1. Central banks are easing or planning to ease monetary policies, influenced by various economic factors worldwide.
  2. The rise of technology, particularly AI, is expected to boost productivity and impact asset markets, potentially leading to financial risks in the future.
  3. Inflation is under control due to labor-saving technology, weak growth in certain regions, and the US's ability to adjust energy production based on market conditions.

The NY Fed Trading Desk's Time to Shine?

The Overshoot • 373 implied HN points • 01 Sep 23
💰 Finance Central Banks Market conditions Government debt Monetary Policy
  1. Central banks should consider being more active in making markets for government debt directly.
  2. During the Covid crisis, bond dealers did not step in to stabilize markets, prompting central banks to intervene.
  3. Constraints on dealers may have led to market instability, prompting discussion on potentially revising regulatory choices.

Corporate profits were biggest driver of inflation in Europe, IMF admits

Geopolitical Economy Report • 538 implied HN points • 27 Jun 23
💰 Finance Inflation Central Banks Monetary Policy
  1. Corporate profits have been a major driver of inflation in Europe since 2021, with companies increasing prices more than the rising costs of imported energy.
  2. The IMF suggests that companies may need to reduce profit margins to help keep inflation in line with targets set by the European Central Bank.
  3. The study challenges the traditional view that inflation is solely caused by demand-pull factors, highlighting how excessive profit increases by corporations can also drive inflation.

The Sword of Damocles

The Dollar Endgame • 319 implied HN points • 30 Aug 23
💰 Finance Global Markets Economic Theory Central Banks Monetary Policy
  1. The global financial system heavily depends on the US dollar, causing a constant demand for dollars worldwide.
  2. Triffin's Dilemma and the Dollar Milkshake Theory highlight the systemic risks and implications of the US dollar's dominance.
  3. The Fed plays a critical role in stabilizing the global financial system by supplying dollars; any missteps could lead to widespread financial instability.

Yi Gang on China's Digital Yuan

Pekingnology • 22 implied HN points • 10 Feb 24
💰 Finance Digital Currency Central Banks Regulations
  1. China's digital yuan operates on a 'possession equals ownership' principle, serving both individuals and companies with a retail path, different from other wholesale digital currencies.
  2. The digital yuan does not compete with WeChat Pay or Alipay but complements them, ensuring privacy while complying with anti-money laundering regulations.
  3. The dual-layer structure of China's digital yuan, centralized management, and measures to prevent disintermediation help minimize impacts on monetary policy and ensure balance in the financial system.

Subscriber Commentary & Review Thread (#15)

The Upheaval • 261 implied HN points • 30 May 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Central Banks Digital Currency Liberalism Authoritarianism
  1. The Gulf States are rapidly changing due to economic boom, attracting global wealth and talents, leading to potential reshaping of global liberalism.
  2. Central banks are pushing forward with the development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) despite concerns over totalitarian state surveillance and control.
  3. Global trends suggest a shift towards stable authoritarian regimes with liberal elements, possibly leading to a new form of governance different from the West or China.

Japan is the playbook, not the exception

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 13 Mar 24
💰 Finance Central Banks Interest Rates
  1. Japan manages extremely high debt levels through financial repression techniques, like central banks purchasing government debt and influencing bond yields.
  2. The duration mismatch between government assets and liabilities incentivizes keeping interest rates low for financial stability.
  3. Artificially low long-term bond yields in Japan lead to wealth redistribution towards older, wealthier households, potentially causing social tension.

Why Does the State Have a Monopoly on Money?

Economic Forces • 8 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
💰 Finance Monetary System Central Banks Inflation Policy Making
  1. The state's monopoly on money is motivated by the ability to generate quick revenue.
  2. One key reason for this lasting monopoly is the state's need for emergency financing, especially during wars.
  3. For the state to maintain the monopoly over money, it needs to commit to long-run price stability, ensuring the currency's purchasing power is preserved over time.

Forward Guidance

The Last Bear Standing • 133 implied HN points • 03 Mar 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Central Banks Inflation Interest Rates
  1. The Dot Plot is the Fed's way of showing where they think interest rates will go in the future.
  2. Yield Curve Control is when central banks adjust short-term and long-term rates to tackle inflation and maintain financial stability.
  3. The Fed's Dilemma involves trying to raise rates to tackle inflation while avoiding destabilizing long-duration assets and maintaining financial stability.

Strange books on the internet distributing words are no basis for a system of finance

featherlessbipeds • 58 implied HN points • 03 Aug 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Central Banks Inflation Fiscal policy Quantitative Easing
  1. The book 'The Dollar Endgame' argues that the US Dollar's reserve currency status leads to increasing demand for USD denominated assets like government debt.
  2. The book presents definitions of economic terms like inflation, central banks, and monetary policy, but these definitions are criticized for being inaccurate or misleading.
  3. Fiscal and monetary policies are meant to be somewhat independent but coordinated to prevent economic mismanagement.

The Financial System is in a Death Spiral

Anxiety Addiction & Ascension • 59 implied HN points • 09 May 23
💰 Finance Economy Inflation Monetary Policy Central Banks Financial system
  1. The financial system is facing a crisis with inflation rates far exceeding official figures, leading to a significant decrease in purchasing power for individuals.
  2. Central banks are struggling to control inflation through traditional methods like interest rate hikes due to the risk of causing economic turmoil and further financial instability.
  3. There are no easy solutions to the current financial crisis - whether governments keep printing money or raise interest rates, both options have significant downsides that can lead to widespread poverty.

CBDC Will Be Used For "Control", ECB President Admits In Vid Chat With 'Fake Zelensky'

Global Community Weekly (GloCom) • 39 implied HN points • 08 Apr 23
🌍 World Politics Control Digital Currency Central Banks
  1. Central Banks in the US and EU are moving towards digital currency to have control over people
  2. European Central Bank President admitted that a digital euro will be used for control over payments
  3. Prank video showed ECB President talking about limited control in digital euro and potential dangers

Against Cassandras: The government debt ‘bomb’

Klement on Investing • 5 implied HN points • 12 Jul 23
💰 Finance Debt Inflation Monetization Interest Rates Central Banks
  1. Having high levels of government debt doesn't always lead to default or ruin.
  2. Countries like Japan have managed high debt levels for decades without catastrophic consequences.
  3. Central banks can intervene to keep debt costs low, and factors like demographics and reserve currency status can help sustain government debt.

Top 5 financial posts of the trading week 12/2024

Global Markets Investor • 0 implied HN points • 25 Mar 24
💰 Finance Stocks Investing Economy Debt Central Banks
  1. The financial week had major fluctuations like Nvidia's stock performance and grocery price hikes.
  2. Global government debt has soared to $82 trillion with central bank balance sheets expected to rise again above $27 trillion.
  3. Central banks like the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank made significant interest rate policy changes recently.

Alert: Central Bank of Nigeria Circular FMD/DIR/PUB/CIR/001/011

RegAlert • 0 implied HN points • 30 Jan 24
💰 Finance Regulations Financial Markets Transparency Market Manipulation Central Banks
  1. Financial institutions must provide transparent pricing in financial market transactions to avoid market manipulation.
  2. The Central Bank of Nigeria warns against underreporting transaction rates and using 'second cheques' as these practices will be sanctioned.
  3. Compliance with CBN rules and guidelines is crucial for a well-functioning and transparent financial market.

25% of the world is either in recession or is going through an economic stagnation

Global Markets Investor • 0 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
💰 Finance Global Economy Recession Central Banks Interest Rates
  1. About 25% of the world is facing recession or economic stagnation, impacting major economies like Japan, United Kingdom, Eurozone, Canada, among others.
  2. Countries such as Japan, UK, Denmark, Moldova, and Peru are in recession, experiencing economic decline over quarters.
  3. Economies in stagnation include the Euro Area, Germany, Canada, Sweden, and Saudi Arabia, facing challenges due to factors like interest rates, inflation, and oil production cuts.