Concoda β’ 302 implied HN points β’ 15 Feb 26
- The overnight fed funds rate is becoming unreliable because trading volumes have collapsed and rival interbank markets are emerging, putting the current mechanism near a breaking point.
- Since 2008, huge reserve growth has propped up the effective fed funds rate and hidden the decline in unsecured interbank activity, but that stability is fragile and no longer shows the true cost of dollar funding.
- The Fed will need a new target rate soon, and it is likely to consider options like administered rates (IORB or o/n RRP), an existing benchmark, a rates basket, or creating a new benchmark.