The hottest Central Bank Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

QE is Coming

The Dollar Endgame • 399 implied HN points • 06 Mar 24
💰 Finance Markets Bitcoin Gold Inflation Central Bank
  1. Markets are anticipating increased liquidity injections from the Fed, with assets like Gold and Bitcoin hitting all-time highs even before the easing cycle starts.
  2. The surge in Bitcoin's value is attributed to significant inflows from U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs, indicating a historic rally compared to gold ETFs.
  3. The financial markets are preparing for a potential Fed intervention, likely in response to the rising net liquidity despite the seeming balance sheet reductions.

The BoJ is Trapped

The Dollar Endgame • 279 implied HN points • 19 Mar 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Central Bank Inflation Interest Rates
  1. The Bank of Japan raised its rates for the first time in years, adjusting its primary goal for short-term interest rates and marking its first rate hike since 2007.
  2. The Bank of Japan previously used Negative Interest Rate Policy to stimulate borrowing and lending to revitalize Japan's sluggish economy.
  3. The Bank of Japan has ceased certain policies but will continue to print money, maintain low rates, and combat potential inflation, as seen through their recent monetary announcements.

BOJ Stands Pat; Yen Weakens to ¥158; Inflation Substantially Below 2% Goal

Japan Economy Watch • 159 implied HN points • 27 Apr 24
💰 Finance Inflation Central Bank Interest Rates Currency Exchange Economic outlook
  1. Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced no new tightening measures, leading to yen weakening to ¥158/$
  2. Inflation in Japan has fallen substantially below the 2% goal, with core inflation hitting 1.4% in the past six months
  3. BOJ remains optimistic about reaching stable 2% inflation, emphasizing on a 'virtuous cycle' between wages and prices

O governo surfa na competência do Banco Central que apedreja

O Observador de Corcyra • 432 implied HN points • 03 Jul 23
💼 Business Economics Government Finance Monetary Policy Central Bank
  1. The global economy in 2023 is influenced by fiscal and monetary actions taken during the pandemic, leading to low unemployment rates and strong consumer spending.
  2. Adjustments in monetary policies by central banks since 2021 have helped moderate inflation, especially in goods, and sustain economic activity without indicating a global recession in 2023.
  3. The independence of the Central Bank has allowed for the implementation of correct monetary policies, contributing to the consistent economic performance of Brazil and the potential for future organized monetary relaxation.

Ayahuasca and the Simulacrum

The Dollar Endgame • 359 implied HN points • 03 Nov 23
💰 Finance Economy Markets Central Bank Derivatives Monetary Policy
  1. Jorge Luis Borges' fable "On Exactitude in Science" explores the concept of representation and the consequences of abstractions overtaking reality.
  2. Psychedelics like Ayahuasca can challenge our perceptions by dissolving the ego and blurring boundaries between the self and the external world.
  3. The modern financial system, with its heavy reliance on derivatives, has created a simulacrum that central bankers manipulate, leading to a dangerous dependence on fake money.
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RRR cut; Talking up stock market; Liu Jianchao; Teslas and security; Red Sea

Sinocism • 137 implied HN points • 25 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Economy Central Bank Policy Government China
  1. PBoC announced a surprise reduction in the reserve ratio requirement to stabilize the economy and markets.
  2. PBoC is establishing a credit market department to focus on key tasks outlined by Xi last year.
  3. The timing and method of delivering the message about the RRR cut may be more important than the actual cut itself.

The Japanese Maginot Line

The Dollar Endgame • 239 implied HN points • 13 Aug 23
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Central Bank Interest Rates Government debt Quantitative Easing
  1. The Bank of Japan's shift in monetary policy caused chaos in FX and stock markets. The volatility in bond markets led to unscheduled bond-buying operations.
  2. Yield Curve Control aims to keep bond yields in a tight range to suppress yields and maintain accommodative monetary policy. This strategy becomes crucial in Japan with high government debt.
  3. The BoJ is strategically intervening in bond rates, pushing them back down whenever they approach a certain threshold. They aim to maintain confusion and market control.

No bubble, no trouble...

Japan Optimist • 235 implied HN points • 11 Jun 23
💰 Finance Real Estate Policy Inflation Central Bank
  1. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo is focused on ensuring economic growth and controlling inflation.
  2. In Japan, politicians are addressing rising energy costs and affordability concerns, not the central bank.
  3. Japanese elite closely monitor real estate prices to prevent asset bubbles and ensure future generations' prospects.

Weird Markets = Warning Sign

Things I Didn't Learn in School • 157 implied HN points • 23 Mar 23
💰 Finance Markets Investing Economy Central Bank Inflation
  1. Take a step back and gain perspective by reading old writings and revisiting past events.
  2. Weird market behaviors like falling bond yields during interest rate hikes and unconnected tech and bank stock movements can be warning signs.
  3. Investors are struggling to price assets amidst inflation, banking crisis, growth slowdown, global conflicts, and AI innovation.

Eurodollar I: Origins

The Dollar Endgame • 139 implied HN points • 07 Oct 23
💰 Finance Banking Central Bank Financial Stability
  1. There exists a secret financial system, the Eurodollar System, that operates outside traditional financial regulations and could impact the global economy significantly.
  2. In the history of banking, innovations like private banks and clearing systems arose to address challenges like widely circulated banknotes and redemption issues.
  3. The Federal Reserve was created based on existing reserve bank systems, adding the revolutionary concept of the money printer and bank reserves, paving the way for expansion of credit creation.

A Tale of Two Currencies

BowTiedMara - Geoarbitrage & Mobility Assets • 137 implied HN points • 24 Apr 23
🌍 World Politics Currency Inflation Monetary Policy Central Bank Financial Crisis
  1. Argentina has a history of economic turmoil with multiple currency crises and hyperinflations.
  2. The government deficit in Argentina has grown significantly since 2011, leading to economic challenges.
  3. Potential solutions for Argentina's economic crisis include complete dollarization, adopting a Bitcoin standard, or exploring joint currencies with other countries like China.

Is Yen’s Decline Over?

Japan Economy Watch • 299 implied HN points • 29 Jul 22
💰 Finance Currency Exchange Interest Rates Inflation Central Bank Market Trends
  1. Traders in currency and bond markets lost big on bets about the weakening yen and rising US interest rates, impacting the yen's value.
  2. The US Federal Reserve's quick actions against inflation caused a change in interest rate outlook, leading to a significant drop in US treasury bond rates.
  3. Market sentiment shifted due to the revised expectations of lower interest rates set by the US Federal Reserve, impacting traders' future predictions.

ACR #22: Let's get tokenized!

Africa Crypto Report (ACR) • 39 implied HN points • 01 May 23
💰 Finance Cryptocurrency Regulation Digital Assets Central Bank Blockchain
  1. Tokenized assets are digital representations of physical or digital assets, allowing for easier trading and management.
  2. Asset tokenization can democratize access to investments, create market liquidity, and enable product innovation.
  3. Regulators play a significant role in the adoption of asset tokenization by dictating the pace of innovation in the space.

Nigerians riot against their central bank cryptocurrency

Perfecting Equilibrium • 19 implied HN points • 07 Mar 23
🌍 World Politics Central Bank Cryptocurrency Digital Currency Financial Policy Global impact
  1. Nigerians are rioting against their central bank cryptocurrency, e-Naira.
  2. Central bank cryptocurrencies are being explored and pushed by many countries globally.
  3. Attempts to replace cash with central bank cryptocurrencies can lead to citizen backlash and increased use of other cryptocurrencies.

Alert: Central Bank of Nigeria Circular FPR/DIR/GEN/CIR/01/007

RegAlert • 0 implied HN points • 31 Mar 21
💰 Finance Regulation Compliance Central Bank
  1. The Central Bank of Nigeria issued Circular FPR/DIR/GEN/CIR/01/007 regarding a list of finance companies licensed as of March 31, 2021. Financial institutions are required to review the list and ensure compliance with regulations.
  2. The circular provides a reference for financial institutions to follow with regards to the licensed finance companies in Nigeria.
  3. The document linked in the post contains the specific list of finance companies that financial institutions need to be aware of and comply with.

Alert: Central Bank of Nigeria Circular OFI/DOA/LTT/CON/002/138

RegAlert • 0 implied HN points • 08 Oct 21
💰 Finance Regulatory Compliance Central Bank Financial Institutions Nigeria
  1. All Other Financial Institutions in Nigeria must prepare their annual financial statements according to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) starting from the 2021 financial year.
  2. The Central Bank of Nigeria will no longer accept financial statements that do not comply with IFRS, and non-compliance will lead to penalties.
  3. OFIs adopting IFRS for the first time must follow IFRS 1 for first-time adopters to ensure compliance.

Alert: Central Bank of Nigeria Circular FPR/DIR/PUB/CIR/01/001

RegAlert • 0 implied HN points • 03 Mar 21
💰 Finance Regulatory Central Bank Covid-19 Impact Interest Rates Financial Institutions
  1. Central Bank of Nigeria has extended reduced interest rates for another twelve months on CBN intervention facilities.
  2. Financial institutions can roll over moratorium on CBN intervention facilities on a case-by-case basis.
  3. Regulatory forbearance measures are in place for restructuring credit facilities impacted by COVID-19.

Alert: Central Bank of Nigeria Circular FPR/DIR/PUB/CIR/001/040

RegAlert • 0 implied HN points • 15 Mar 22
💰 Finance Central Bank Regulation Covid-19 Impact
  1. The Central Bank of Nigeria has extended the 5% per annum interest rate on CBN intervention facilities for one year starting from February 28, 2022.
  2. Financial institutions are required to follow this regulatory forbearance for restructuring credit facilities affected by COVID-19.
  3. Enquiries regarding this regulatory update can be directed to the Director of the Development Finance Department.

The Unraveling of the Soviet Ruble Zone

Vivid Leaves • 0 implied HN points • 07 Oct 23
🌍 World Politics Banking System Central Bank Monetary Policy
  1. The collapse of the Soviet ruble zone was like a heist more than a historical event, with countries exploiting the payment network to issue new rubles and ultimately leading to hyperinflation.
  2. The failure of the Soviet ruble zone showed the importance of payment networks in shaping path dependencies, highlighting the need for robust state capacity and careful negotiation in managing currency transitions.
  3. Countries like the Baltics and Ukraine left the Russian ruble zone early, showing the impact of geopolitical decisions on monetary systems.

Alert: Central Bank of Nigeria Circular TED/FEM/FPC/GEN/01/002

RegAlert • 0 implied HN points • 25 Feb 22
💰 Finance Regulatory Central Bank Foreign Exchange
  1. The Central Bank of Nigeria has introduced the RT200 Programme to reduce exposure to volatile foreign exchange sources and earn more stable inflows.
  2. The CBN has issued guidelines for the implementation of the RT200 Non-Oil Export Rebate scheme that Authorized Dealers must comply with immediately.
  3. The guidelines for the RT200 Programme are aimed at creating a more sustainable and stable foreign exchange system.