The hottest Central Bank Substack posts right now

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Lawler: Some Observations on the February Existing Home Sales Release

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 258 implied HN points • 19 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Central Bank
  1. The National Association of Realtors moved its monthly existing-home sales release earlier in the month, and that earlier timing has likely caused larger-than-normal revisions to their monthly sales estimates.
  2. Based on state and local realtor/MLS data, February’s annualized sales rate is likely to be revised down slightly to about 4.03 million, while the year-over-year median single-family home price for February will probably be revised up to around 1.0%.
  3. FOMC dot plots now show over half of participants see the long-run federal funds rate above 3%, a big shift since 2021, even though all participants still assume long-run inflation will be 2% despite current inflation being higher.

The Fed Eases

Points And Figures • 746 implied HN points • 10 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Central Bank
  1. The Fed cut rates by 0.25% and said it will expand its balance sheet by buying short-term Treasurys to keep ample bank reserves.
  2. Policymakers now expect inflation to fall (about 3% end-2025 and 2.5% in 2026) and slightly raised GDP forecasts while unemployment stays near current levels.
  3. The balance-sheet move is meant to ease interbank liquidity strains and should push short-term yields lower, which has already helped lift futures and the stock market.

The True Price For An Ounce of Gold: $20,275?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 36 implied HN points • 03 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Central Bank
  1. If you divide the monetary base by Treasury gold holdings you get a "Gold Coverage Price" — using October 2025 numbers that comes to about $20,275 per ounce.
  2. The monetary base has ballooned while Treasury gold holdings have stagnated or fallen, so the implied gold price has risen sharply and would imply a large devaluation of the dollar if redemption were resumed.
  3. Making the dollar fully redeemable in gold would force fiscal discipline because new money couldn’t be created without more gold, but if markets doubted the switch a loss of confidence could trigger a crisis.

QE is Coming

The Dollar Endgame • 399 implied HN points • 06 Mar 24
đź’° Finance Central Bank
  1. Markets are anticipating increased liquidity injections from the Fed, with assets like Gold and Bitcoin hitting all-time highs even before the easing cycle starts.
  2. The surge in Bitcoin's value is attributed to significant inflows from U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs, indicating a historic rally compared to gold ETFs.
  3. The financial markets are preparing for a potential Fed intervention, likely in response to the rising net liquidity despite the seeming balance sheet reductions.

The BoJ is Trapped

The Dollar Endgame • 279 implied HN points • 19 Mar 24
đź’° Finance Central Bank
  1. The Bank of Japan raised its rates for the first time in years, adjusting its primary goal for short-term interest rates and marking its first rate hike since 2007.
  2. The Bank of Japan previously used Negative Interest Rate Policy to stimulate borrowing and lending to revitalize Japan's sluggish economy.
  3. The Bank of Japan has ceased certain policies but will continue to print money, maintain low rates, and combat potential inflation, as seen through their recent monetary announcements.
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BOJ Stands Pat; Yen Weakens to ÂĄ158; Inflation Substantially Below 2% Goal

Japan Economy Watch • 159 implied HN points • 27 Apr 24
đź’° Finance Central Bank
  1. Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced no new tightening measures, leading to yen weakening to ÂĄ158/$
  2. Inflation in Japan has fallen substantially below the 2% goal, with core inflation hitting 1.4% in the past six months
  3. BOJ remains optimistic about reaching stable 2% inflation, emphasizing on a 'virtuous cycle' between wages and prices

Powell’s Confidence On Trial, Gold Rips Higher

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 31 implied HN points • 12 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Central Bank
  1. A criminal probe of the Fed chair risks undermining Federal Reserve independence and makes monetary policy look vulnerable to political or legal pressure.
  2. That uncertainty is negative for US risk assets and the dollar in the near term, and it can disrupt Treasury markets and capital flows.
  3. Over the long run, weakening confidence in US monetary institutions could speed global diversification away from the dollar and lift safe-haven assets like gold and silver.

O governo surfa na competĂŞncia do Banco Central que apedreja

O Observador de Corcyra • 432 implied HN points • 03 Jul 23
đź’Ľ Business Central Bank
  1. The global economy in 2023 is influenced by fiscal and monetary actions taken during the pandemic, leading to low unemployment rates and strong consumer spending.
  2. Adjustments in monetary policies by central banks since 2021 have helped moderate inflation, especially in goods, and sustain economic activity without indicating a global recession in 2023.
  3. The independence of the Central Bank has allowed for the implementation of correct monetary policies, contributing to the consistent economic performance of Brazil and the potential for future organized monetary relaxation.

Ayahuasca and the Simulacrum

The Dollar Endgame • 359 implied HN points • 03 Nov 23
đź’° Finance Central Bank
  1. Jorge Luis Borges' fable "On Exactitude in Science" explores the concept of representation and the consequences of abstractions overtaking reality.
  2. Psychedelics like Ayahuasca can challenge our perceptions by dissolving the ego and blurring boundaries between the self and the external world.
  3. The modern financial system, with its heavy reliance on derivatives, has created a simulacrum that central bankers manipulate, leading to a dangerous dependence on fake money.

Every Jobs Report In 2025 Has Been Revised Lower

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 16 implied HN points • 10 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Central Bank
  1. Every month of 2025 has been revised lower, often sharply, which undermines confidence in the official payroll numbers.
  2. Much of the reported job growth relies on the BLS birth/death adjustment rather than actual payroll gains, so headline positives look artificial once the baseline is considered.
  3. The household survey and broader indicators show mixed signals and structural weakness—lower labor force participation, sector softness, and shifts between full‑time and part‑time work—implying the economy is weaker than the headline jobs figures suggest.

Money Supply Growth Surges to Multi-Year High

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 26 implied HN points • 08 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Central Bank
  1. The money supply has accelerated in recent months, with TMS at a multi-year high and M2 hitting record levels above $22 trillion.
  2. That surge is happening despite weak economic signs like rising layoffs, bankruptcies, and rising delinquencies, which makes the growth surprising.
  3. Fed easing (rate cuts and slower quantitative tightening) plus commercial bank lending are driving the increase, and a large share of today’s money stock was created since 2009 and especially since 2020.

The Japanese Maginot Line

The Dollar Endgame • 239 implied HN points • 13 Aug 23
đź’° Finance Central Bank
  1. The Bank of Japan's shift in monetary policy caused chaos in FX and stock markets. The volatility in bond markets led to unscheduled bond-buying operations.
  2. Yield Curve Control aims to keep bond yields in a tight range to suppress yields and maintain accommodative monetary policy. This strategy becomes crucial in Japan with high government debt.
  3. The BoJ is strategically intervening in bond rates, pushing them back down whenever they approach a certain threshold. They aim to maintain confusion and market control.

No bubble, no trouble...

Japan Optimist • 235 implied HN points • 11 Jun 23
đź’° Finance Central Bank
  1. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo is focused on ensuring economic growth and controlling inflation.
  2. In Japan, politicians are addressing rising energy costs and affordability concerns, not the central bank.
  3. Japanese elite closely monitor real estate prices to prevent asset bubbles and ensure future generations' prospects.

Weird Markets = Warning Sign

Things I Didn't Learn in School • 157 implied HN points • 23 Mar 23
đź’° Finance Central Bank
  1. Take a step back and gain perspective by reading old writings and revisiting past events.
  2. Weird market behaviors like falling bond yields during interest rate hikes and unconnected tech and bank stock movements can be warning signs.
  3. Investors are struggling to price assets amidst inflation, banking crisis, growth slowdown, global conflicts, and AI innovation.

Eurodollar I: Origins

The Dollar Endgame • 139 implied HN points • 07 Oct 23
đź’° Finance Central Bank
  1. There exists a secret financial system, the Eurodollar System, that operates outside traditional financial regulations and could impact the global economy significantly.
  2. In the history of banking, innovations like private banks and clearing systems arose to address challenges like widely circulated banknotes and redemption issues.
  3. The Federal Reserve was created based on existing reserve bank systems, adding the revolutionary concept of the money printer and bank reserves, paving the way for expansion of credit creation.

A Tale of Two Currencies

BowTiedMara - Geoarbitrage & Mobility Assets • 137 implied HN points • 24 Apr 23
🌍 World Politics Central Bank
  1. Argentina has a history of economic turmoil with multiple currency crises and hyperinflations.
  2. The government deficit in Argentina has grown significantly since 2011, leading to economic challenges.
  3. Potential solutions for Argentina's economic crisis include complete dollarization, adopting a Bitcoin standard, or exploring joint currencies with other countries like China.

Is Yen’s Decline Over?

Japan Economy Watch • 299 implied HN points • 29 Jul 22
đź’° Finance Central Bank
  1. Traders in currency and bond markets lost big on bets about the weakening yen and rising US interest rates, impacting the yen's value.
  2. The US Federal Reserve's quick actions against inflation caused a change in interest rate outlook, leading to a significant drop in US treasury bond rates.
  3. Market sentiment shifted due to the revised expectations of lower interest rates set by the US Federal Reserve, impacting traders' future predictions.

ACR #22: Let's get tokenized!

Africa Crypto Report (ACR) • 39 implied HN points • 01 May 23
đź’° Finance Central Bank
  1. Tokenized assets are digital representations of physical or digital assets, allowing for easier trading and management.
  2. Asset tokenization can democratize access to investments, create market liquidity, and enable product innovation.
  3. Regulators play a significant role in the adoption of asset tokenization by dictating the pace of innovation in the space.

The Unraveling of the Soviet Ruble Zone

Vivid Leaves • 5 implied HN points • 07 Oct 23
🌍 World Politics Central Bank
  1. The collapse of the Soviet ruble zone was like a heist more than a historical event, with countries exploiting the payment network to issue new rubles and ultimately leading to hyperinflation.
  2. The failure of the Soviet ruble zone showed the importance of payment networks in shaping path dependencies, highlighting the need for robust state capacity and careful negotiation in managing currency transitions.
  3. Countries like the Baltics and Ukraine left the Russian ruble zone early, showing the impact of geopolitical decisions on monetary systems.

Alert: Central Bank of Nigeria Circular OFI/DOA/LTT/CON/002/138

RegAlert • 0 implied HN points • 08 Oct 21
đź’° Finance Central Bank
  1. All Other Financial Institutions in Nigeria must prepare their annual financial statements according to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) starting from the 2021 financial year.
  2. The Central Bank of Nigeria will no longer accept financial statements that do not comply with IFRS, and non-compliance will lead to penalties.
  3. OFIs adopting IFRS for the first time must follow IFRS 1 for first-time adopters to ensure compliance.