The hottest Campaigns Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Business Topics

Four reasons not to vote for Trump, and four reasons to vote for Harris

Noahpinion • 20235 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policy Political parties Candidates Campaigns
  1. Voting for Trump might increase threats from foreign adversaries like China and Russia. Many believe a leader needs to focus on these global challenges instead of internal conflicts.
  2. The people who tend to work with Trump often end up leaving or criticizing him. This raises concern about who would truly be in charge of the country if he were elected again.
  3. Kamala Harris is expected to continue the policies that have helped improve the economy recently, and she brings a more optimistic and patriotic tone to the Democratic party.

THE SHOW NOTES: Only Problems, Gretchen Whitmer's Ad, & The Age of Depopulation

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1019 implied HN points • 11 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policy Campaigns Government Social Issues
  1. OnlyFans has caused serious social problems, including issues like non-consensual content and child exploitation, despite being marketed as a safe space for adult content creators.
  2. Kamala Harris is struggling to define herself apart from President Biden, which may harm her campaign. Many voters want to see her strong and independent from current unpopular policies.
  3. The world is facing a decline in population due to low birth rates, leading to an aging society. This could change how we live and interact, with many family structures becoming different from what we know now.

Insider Details: The Race for the Senate!

COVID Reason • 218 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Legislation Voting Political strategy Campaigns
  1. The Senate race is getting tight, with many states that seemed safe for Democrats now becoming potential wins for Republicans.
  2. In important states like Ohio and Wisconsin, both parties are fighting hard as the races are seen as toss-ups.
  3. Some unexpected races, like in Nebraska, are showing strong competition for Republicans, indicating this election could lead to surprising results.

THE SHOW NOTES: Harris is Imploding, Milton Surges, & The Crumbling Blue Wall

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1099 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Public Opinion Political strategy Legislation
  1. Kamala Harris is struggling with support among working-class voters in key states like Michigan, which is causing concern for her campaign.
  2. Democrats want Harris to focus more on economic issues to better connect with blue-collar workers and union members.
  3. The ongoing violence in the Middle East is causing Arab American voters in Michigan to feel disconnected from the Democratic Party.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

Mid-day reading: Harris’s Campaign, Voter Trends, and 2024 Stakes

COVID Reason • 337 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Voter trends Political Analysis Media Coverage
  1. Kamala Harris needs to create a strong, positive message if she wants to win against Trump. She should focus on being a visionary leader rather than just bringing up past issues.
  2. Harris is facing challenges connecting with important voter groups, especially Black men and Latino men. How she addresses these voters could really impact her campaign.
  3. The outcome of this election is crucial not just for Harris, but also for the Obama-Biden legacy. A loss could change the Democratic Party's future and influence.

Pennsylvania Update: GOP Showing BIG Increases from 2020 and 2022

COVID Reason • 297 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Political parties Polls Campaigns
  1. Early voting in Pennsylvania shows Republicans have surged by over 51% since 2020, with an even bigger jump of 83% from 2022 to 2024.
  2. Democrats, however, are down by 14% since 2020 but have slightly increased their early voting compared to 2022.
  3. The biggest Democratic areas are in Philadelphia and Allegheny County, while places like Bedford and Fulton County are strongholds for Republicans.

Umm... Trump might actually win this thing.

COVID Reason • 693 implied HN points • 09 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Campaigns Political strategies Political Analysis
  1. Polls often underestimate Donald Trump's support, which could mean he might win in 2024 if the trend continues.
  2. Pennsylvania is crucial for the election, and recent party registration changes there could tip the scales in Trump's favor.
  3. Recent polls show Trump and his opponent, Kamala Harris, are very close, much tighter than in past elections, suggesting a competitive race.

Judicial Notice (10.13.24): October Surprises

Original Jurisdiction • 459 implied HN points • 13 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Judiciary Legislation Elections Campaigns Civil Rights
  1. Gentner Drummond, Oklahoma's Republican Attorney General, is pushing for a retrial in a controversial death penalty case, which has created division among state officials.
  2. The Supreme Court is looking into a key case about 'ghost guns,' with arguments taking place this week, indicating the court's interest in regulating new gun technologies.
  3. Judge Stephen Higginson from the Fifth Circuit is becoming known for his support of DACA, standing out amidst contrasting views on immigration policy within his court.

Links For January 2025

Astral Codex Ten • 15898 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Legislation Political Behavior Public Policy
  1. Running for Congress can be really tough. You often spend a lot of your own money and have to pause your job for a long time.
  2. The debate around AI's progress is heating up. Some people worry that if AI makes a big breakthrough but not everything it was supposed to, it could lead to misunderstandings about its true capabilities.
  3. There's a new dating site idea that matches people based on their chats with an AI helper. It's still in the early stages, but it's an interesting concept.

FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

Silver Bulletin • 9424 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Forecasting Political Analysis Campaigns
  1. In the final simulations for the election, Kamala Harris won slightly more than half of the time, but Donald Trump also had a strong chance, especially with potential ties in the Electoral College.
  2. The modeling approach adjusts for different polling methods and emphasizes reliable polls, aiming to offer a clearer picture of who might win the election.
  3. There’s still uncertainty in elections, and surprising outcomes can happen, so many factors could influence the final results.

Election Update 4: Hints of Panic and Rage, But It's Still Early

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 7521 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Political News Polls Public Opinion
  1. Election night can be stressful and filled with mixed emotions for news anchors as they report on unfolding results. They try to keep things light but can still feel the pressure of the outcome.
  2. While some early results seem to favor one candidate, it's still too early to draw hard conclusions. The dynamics of voting can change as more votes come in.
  3. It's important to stay calm and not panic no matter the initial news. The election process has many twists and turns that can change the situation quickly.

An Excellent Means of Electioneering

Looking Through the Past • 178 implied HN points • 20 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns Voting History Advertising Political culture
  1. Political posters have played a crucial role in campaigning since the 19th century. They were used to quickly catch voters' attention and communicate key messages.
  2. The artwork on these posters often included historical references, emotional imagery, and symbols to appeal to voters. This made them both informative and visually striking.
  3. As technology improved, the design of campaign posters evolved, leading to more colorful and complex images. This innovation mirrored the way political messages became more sophisticated over time.

Election Update 6: The Puckering

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 7102 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Campaigns Voter Behavior Party Dynamics
  1. Democrats are feeling anxious as key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin show Trump leading. It's crucial for Harris to win all three to take the presidency.
  2. Many Democrats may have overlooked voter sentiments, which can lead to big consequences. There's a sense that the Democratic Party needs to reconnect with American voters.
  3. This election isn't just about who wins but also reflects broader public opinions on political messaging. The results could spark major changes in media and party leadership.

113 predictions for Trump's second term

Silver Bulletin • 829 implied HN points • 26 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policy Government Campaigns Society
  1. The predictions aim to explore various possible outcomes of Trump's second term, from political events to global issues. It's like guessing how a story might unfold, mixing serious and bizarre scenarios.
  2. The predictions are based on probabilities, meaning some events are more likely to happen than others. For example, predicting a Republican win in 2028 isn't just a simple yes or no; there's a chance it could happen.
  3. There’s an emphasis on keeping track of unusual risks and looking at the bigger picture. These predictions could shape how we think about future political events and the changing landscape in the US.

Links For November 2024

Astral Codex Ten • 12664 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Legislation Political parties Public Opinion Campaigns
  1. Ancient Chinese customs included burying people with passports for the afterlife. This practice was believed to help them gain entry into the underworld.
  2. A new drug for schizophrenia is approved, showing promise for fewer side effects and better treatment for negative symptoms, but it has a high starting price.
  3. Recent studies show that teaching experience may not be as important as previously thought, as using less experienced teachers can lead to worse student performance.

Explaining in Five Paragraphs the Scam Donald Trump Just Pulled on 150 Million American TikTok Users

Proof • 378 implied HN points • 19 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political News Government actions Public Opinion Campaigns Social media
  1. Donald Trump temporarily shut down TikTok in the U.S. for 14 hours, creating drama before claiming to 'save' it. This left 150 million users feeling anxious about the app's future.
  2. The situation seemed like a political stunt where Trump might be trying to gain support by making users grateful for TikTok's return, despite him having a history of wanting it banned.
  3. The uncertainty around TikTok's status now makes many users wonder if it will actually stay available or if more political games will continue to affect their access.

Election Countdown: The Day After.

Breaking the News • 2347 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Voter Behavior Political Analysis Government
  1. Voters had several years to see Donald Trump's actions and behavior clearly, and they still chose him again. This shows a significant change in how the public views him compared to past elections.
  2. Kamala Harris ran a strong campaign with few mistakes, while Trump had a rocky one. Despite this, the election outcome favored Trump, which highlights a surprising shift in voter priorities.
  3. Two experts who believed Americans would make a rational choice were proven wrong. This suggests that the election results reflect a deeper understanding of current American values and beliefs.

Polls: Harris slipping! Race Tightens

COVID Reason • 178 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polls Campaigns Candidates Immigration
  1. Polls show Kamala Harris is losing ground to Donald Trump, with the race tightening as the campaign progresses.
  2. Harris is facing criticism for not delivering on her campaign promises, which has disappointed some voters.
  3. Concerns about Harris's past support for certain policies could be used against her in the election, indicating a potential political vulnerability.

No better room

benn.substack • 1815 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Political Analysis Voter Behavior Political strategy
  1. The team had multiple backup plans ready for the election night, but they ended up not needing them at all because the outcome was clear very quickly. This shows how sometimes, despite all the preparation, things can turn out differently than expected.
  2. Even though they lost the election, the atmosphere in the room was charged with intensity and urgency as they worked together to process data. The experience was thrilling, highlighting the importance of being actively involved even when facing tough situations.
  3. The hardworking people behind the scenes may not get recognition for their efforts after a loss, but their commitment and dedication are valuable. They might be unnoticed now, but their hard work is still important for future efforts.

"Person, woman, man, camera, TV."

Today's Edition Newsletter • 8097 implied HN points • 23 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Government Policy Justice Campaigns
  1. Donald Trump's cognitive ability and recent statements raise concerns about his mental fitness.
  2. Republicans in New Hampshire used deceptive tactics in the primary election, prompting investigation for voter suppression.
  3. US Supreme Court's recent decision highlights the importance of expanding the Court to uphold federal supremacy.

It's Kamala Time

Diane Francis • 1179 implied HN points • 08 Jul 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Candidates Political parties Campaigns Health Issues
  1. The upcoming US Presidential election in November is a major focus, with concerns about Joe Biden's ability to continue. His health and debates have caused divisions within the Democratic Party.
  2. Kamala Harris is seen as a strong and prepared candidate who can step in if needed. She has experience and could appeal to a diverse voter base.
  3. The 2024 election will focus on issues like gender and social justice, not just age or health. Kamala Harris's presence could be a significant advantage for Democrats.

An Open Letter to Nikki Haley

Bulwark+ • 6073 implied HN points • 24 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Elections Parties Politicians Campaigns
  1. The Republican party is facing challenges and Nikki Haley is encouraged to speak up against Trump
  2. Nikki Haley is urged to be honest and bold in her campaign, speaking out against Trump and embracing her true beliefs
  3. The importance of Nikki Haley addressing her past actions, speaking out against Trump, and potentially shaping a new role for herself

The Trump campaign has no grassroots Gen Z meme energy

Jeff Giesea • 818 implied HN points • 08 Aug 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns Media Elections Social Issues
  1. The Trump campaign lacks the young, grassroots support it had in 2016. It feels slow and less exciting compared to before.
  2. Kamala Harris is gaining momentum with strong support from young people and the media. Her recent rallies have drawn large crowds, showing enthusiasm for her campaign.
  3. Harris is innovating and adapting faster than Trump, which helps her in fundraising and polling. This gives her an advantage as the election approaches.

Silver Bulletin 2024 election night coverage

Silver Bulletin • 1380 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Political Analysis Voter Behavior Campaigns
  1. It's important to keep track of election night numbers for candidates like Trump and Harris. Knowing the latest results helps us understand how the election is going.
  2. You can join a chat during election night to discuss the results with others. It's a good way to share thoughts and hear different perspectives.
  3. This information is aimed at paid subscribers, so it's exclusive content for those who support the publication. Being a paid member allows for access to more in-depth analysis.

There’s more herding in swing state polls than at a sheep farm in the Scottish Highlands

Silver Bulletin • 1434 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Polls Elections Voting Public Opinion Campaigns
  1. Many swing state polls show very close results, which seems suspicious. It's not normal for so many polls to match so closely in a tight race.
  2. Some pollsters lean towards the common opinion instead of reporting their own findings. This tendency to 'herd' can lead to less accurate overall polling results.
  3. Polling strategies may create pressure to avoid showing clear leads, causing inaccurate predictions. This can lead to surprises on election day, as true voter sentiment might not be reflected.

Daily Poll Update - October 2, 2020

COVID Reason • 118 implied HN points • 02 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polls Surveys Campaigns Public Opinion
  1. The daily updates will share the latest averages for polls leading up to the election. This will help people understand the current landscape of voter opinions.
  2. Currently, the national poll shows Harris leading Trump by a small margin. It's close, so every vote will really count.
  3. The updates will continue consistently over the next 30 days as the election approaches. It's a crucial time for voters to stay informed.

Part I: Democrats' risk-aversion helped to re-elect Trump

Silver Bulletin • 761 implied HN points • 03 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Political strategy Political Analysis Democratic Party
  1. Democrats were too afraid to take risks during the campaign, which may have helped Trump win again. They were in a tough position but didn't try bold strategies to change the outcome.
  2. The campaign team didn't seem to understand the general public's feelings or what would attract voters. They focused too much on internal data instead of connecting with average people.
  3. Many decisions made during the campaign failed to create excitement or clear messaging. The candidates didn't have a strong, unique vision, making it hard to draw support from undecided voters.