The hottest Campaigns Substack posts right now

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Happenings in Pennsylvania! Latest Numbers and Trends

COVID Reason • 456 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Voter registrations in Pennsylvania are changing, with more Democrats switching to the Republican Party. This shift can impact the elections in a big way.
  2. Early voting trends show that Republicans have greatly increased their early turnout compared to previous elections, while Democrats' early voting is down. This could change who wins in the state.
  3. Polls indicate a tight race for the 2024 election in Pennsylvania, with both parties needing to work hard to win over voters as Election Day gets closer.

Kamala Is Losing At the Moment

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1978 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Kamala Harris is struggling in her campaign against Trump even though many Americans dislike him. Being tied with him is not a good sign for her as the presumed incumbent.
  2. Harris is focusing on safe topics and friendly interviews, while Trump is actively engaging with voters on hot issues like inflation and housing costs. This could lead to problems for her in gaining support.
  3. Democratic leaders have doubts about Harris's ability to win and have discussed the possibility of Biden needing to step down. Harris's past decisions and strategy may not resonate well with voters right now.

Beware biased GOP polls flooding the zone, with corporate media's help

The Signorile Report • 1498 implied HN points • 11 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Be careful with GOP polls; they can be biased and create unnecessary stress for Democrats. It's important to understand that some polls may be designed to make it seem like Republicans are winning.
  2. Trump's own internal polls show different results than public ones, suggesting a bias toward him. This discrepancy raises questions about the reliability of the polls being reported by mainstream media.
  3. It's crucial not to get overly anxious about polling numbers. Focus on real indicators like voter registration and early voting trends, which can provide a clearer picture of the election landscape.

Fight Song

Magic + Loss • 636 implied HN points • 19 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Being active in democracy means accepting conflict and standing up to your opponents. It’s important to be ready to fight for what you believe in.
  2. Donald Trump uses intimidation to get support, and he has made it clear he won't accept losing another election. This creates fear and uncertainty among his opponents.
  3. Past experiences show that when Trump doesn't get his way, it can lead to chaos. It's crucial to stand firm against his tactics to protect democratic values.

Gas prices are set to go vertical

Silver Bulletin • 781 implied HN points • 08 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Gas prices are likely to spike sharply soon because oil production and shipping in the Gulf are being disrupted, and short-term forecasts put U.S. pump prices possibly in the $4.50–$5.00 range or higher.
  2. A rapid, large increase in gas prices could hurt the president politically, since voters punish inflation and he campaigned on lower fuel costs; his casual response may amplify the damage.
  3. Even though Iran alone isn’t the biggest oil producer, attacks on other Gulf producers and the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz threaten about 30% of global oil supply, creating a big supply shock and major uncertainty.
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Ireland's ONE WEIRD TRICK To End Colonization & Win Every Political Campaign

JoeWrote • 318 implied HN points • 17 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Successful politics focuses on everyday material needs like wages, housing, and healthcare, not just lofty ideas. People support movements that make their lives better now.
  2. Campaigns should offer clear, specific policies that voters can imagine improving their daily lives. Concrete promises (rent relief, childcare, healthcare) win more support than abstract rhetoric.
  3. Long-term goals like social change or national unity depend on steady organizing around workers' material interests. Symbolic appeals alone don’t sustain popular support.

THE SHOW NOTES: Pennsylvania Problems, Terrorists At The Border, & Harris On Fossil Fuels

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 839 implied HN points • 16 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Kamala Harris is facing criticism from Pennsylvania Democrats about her campaign's effectiveness in a key battleground state. They feel it's not focused enough on boosting voter turnout where it matters most.
  2. There have been significant revisions to FBI crime statistics, showing a rise in violent crime that contradicts previous claims. This change could impact political discussions around crime rates.
  3. An Afghan national linked to a potential terror plot was found to have been inadequately vetted before entering the U.S., raising concerns about security processes in place for immigrants.

Trump is now running scared of the media. Where are the headlines?

The Signorile Report • 1638 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Trump has been avoiding mainstream media interviews, while Vice President Harris has been actively engaging with various media platforms. It's surprising because he usually loves the spotlight.
  2. Despite criticism, Harris has been doing interviews on major shows, reaching out to different audiences. The media seems to overlook her efforts, focusing instead on her supposed media avoidance.
  3. Trump's cancellation of an interview on '60 Minutes' raises questions about what he might be hiding. If Harris is criticized for her choices, why isn't there similar scrutiny on Trump for avoiding tougher interviews?

THE SHOW NOTES: Three Weeks To Go, Ignoring Time Magazine, & Kamala On Joe Rogan?

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 879 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Kamala Harris is behind Trump in key issues that matter to voters, like the economy and immigration. This is worrying her campaign as many voters are feeling negative about their current situation.
  2. More Americans are identifying as Republicans, and many believe the GOP will handle issues like safety and prosperity better than Democrats. This shift could impact upcoming elections.
  3. Kamala Harris has been selective with her media appearances, refusing interviews with Time Magazine but considering more informal talks, like a potential chat with Joe Rogan. This may be an attempt to connect better with voters.

Once States Go Blue, They Only Fleece You

Points And Figures • 479 implied HN points • 13 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Everyday people should get involved in local and state politics by running for office or actively supporting candidates, because taking action matters more than just complaining.
  2. The piece argues that when states shift to Democratic control they expand government and raise taxes, which is portrayed as taking money from families and eroding freedoms.
  3. Nevada could boost prosperity by cutting red tape and developing energy sources like nuclear and geothermal, and running or supporting like-minded candidates is affordable and practical.

Is The Harris Campaign Imploding?

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1498 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Kamala Harris' support in key states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania is declining, which could hurt her campaign.
  2. Recent mistakes in interviews have raised doubts about her ability to lead and communicate clearly sobre important issues.
  3. Despite struggling, there is still a chance for Harris to succeed in the campaign if she can turn things around.

Weekend Report: What's going on?

The Signorile Report • 1099 implied HN points • 12 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Trump is struggling to raise small donations and is upset that Harris is outpacing him in fundraising. This has made him focus more on aggressive immigration policies.
  2. Kamala Harris shared her medical report showing she is in great health, which puts pressure on Trump to release his own health information.
  3. JD Vance has been inconsistent about acknowledging Biden's 2020 election win, raising questions about his honesty after saying both that Trump won and that Biden did.

Endorsements

Points And Figures • 239 implied HN points • 16 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Endorsements from two sitting legislators mean the treasurer will have partners in the legislature to modernize and professionalize the state treasury and to cut waste, fraud, and abuse.
  2. The candidate brings professional finance experience, a strong network, and startup background that other contenders lack, so they can start delivering results on day one.
  3. Joe Brown’s endorsement is significant because he helped build Nevada, is widely respected, and adds credibility and institutional support to the campaign.

SITREP - 10/13/2024

THREE SEVEN MAFIA • 919 implied HN points • 13 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. The Old Glory Club in Chicago is now officially launched, and it had a great first meeting with good support from friends.
  2. There will be a cemetery walk event on October 26, and the person will also be traveling to Portland for a visit afterward.
  3. They are seeking donations to cover some travel expenses and hope to be self-sustaining in the future to avoid appeals for funds.

THE SHOW NOTES: Only Problems, Gretchen Whitmer's Ad, & The Age of Depopulation

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1019 implied HN points • 11 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. OnlyFans has caused serious social problems, including issues like non-consensual content and child exploitation, despite being marketed as a safe space for adult content creators.
  2. Kamala Harris is struggling to define herself apart from President Biden, which may harm her campaign. Many voters want to see her strong and independent from current unpopular policies.
  3. The world is facing a decline in population due to low birth rates, leading to an aging society. This could change how we live and interact, with many family structures becoming different from what we know now.

The lifeline election (part one)

Comment is Freed • 126 implied HN points • 17 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. If Democrats win both the House and Senate they could seriously constrain the President by blocking appointments, subpoenaing officials, stalling budgets, and launching investigations, though they still couldn’t remove him or stop all presidential powers.
  2. The House is likely to flip to the Democrats — Republicans hold a narrow four-seat majority, polls favor Democrats, and competing gerrymanders in different states largely cancel each other out.
  3. The Senate is far more competitive and could go either way: Democrats need multiple pickups, nine key Senate contests will decide control, and rising concerns about Trump’s approval and candidate choices have made control roughly a 50/50 outcome while raising worries he might try to undermine fair contests.

Sporting Clays With Keystone

Points And Figures • 426 implied HN points • 12 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. The state treasurer’s office should be depoliticized and run by skilled professionals who prioritize investment returns and fiduciary duty instead of political virtue signaling about industries like guns.
  2. A Keystone sporting clays shoot showed that shooting can be fun but challenging in windy conditions, prompted thoughts of switching to a semi-automatic, and reflected a family tradition of hunting and careful gun handling.
  3. We should be cautious about restricting the right to bear arms while also making gun safety, maintenance, and proper storage central to responsible ownership.

Musk in Despair

Magic + Loss • 755 implied HN points • 14 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Elon Musk has openly aligned himself with the MAGA movement, describing himself as 'dark MAGA'.
  2. His appearance at a rally shows a strong commitment to the Trump brand and its supporters.
  3. Musk's enthusiastic actions at the event indicate his growing influence and involvement in right-wing politics.

How Nevada's State Treasurer Won't Screw Up

Points And Figures • 319 implied HN points • 14 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Risky investment choices by a state treasurer can wipe out college savings, leaving families to recover only a portion of their losses after settlements.
  2. Voters should prefer a treasurer with real professional finance experience and accredited-investor credentials to responsibly manage public funds.
  3. Rapid change in finance means a hands-on treasurer with industry experience and networks can protect citizens and spot real innovation versus snake oil, unlike inexperienced career politicians.

Not An Accredited Investor?

Points And Figures • 346 implied HN points • 13 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Accredited investor status shows you can access and analyze complex private investments, which matters for someone managing a large public portfolio and sitting on investment boards.
  2. Non-accredited people are legally barred from many private funds and deals. If they invest anyway it can break the law and create havoc for other investors.
  3. Managing a state treasury requires prior hands-on experience with sophisticated investments and a strong sense of fiduciary responsibility; it’s not a job you should be learning on the fly.

Insider Details: The Race for the Senate!

COVID Reason • 218 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. The Senate race is getting tight, with many states that seemed safe for Democrats now becoming potential wins for Republicans.
  2. In important states like Ohio and Wisconsin, both parties are fighting hard as the races are seen as toss-ups.
  3. Some unexpected races, like in Nebraska, are showing strong competition for Republicans, indicating this election could lead to surprising results.

THE SHOW NOTES: Harris is Imploding, Milton Surges, & The Crumbling Blue Wall

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1099 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Kamala Harris is struggling with support among working-class voters in key states like Michigan, which is causing concern for her campaign.
  2. Democrats want Harris to focus more on economic issues to better connect with blue-collar workers and union members.
  3. The ongoing violence in the Middle East is causing Arab American voters in Michigan to feel disconnected from the Democratic Party.

What Should the Dems Do to Win—And Then to Govern?

Breaking the News • 1103 implied HN points • 17 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Democrats should build a transparent, detailed governing playbook now—a positive counterpart to Project 2025—and use Congress to normalize these ideas and force votes so positions are on the record.
  2. The Shearer/Carnoy/Reich "Bold Economic Program" is a practical, costed starting blueprint focused on job creation and fairness, and it should be refined collaboratively by experts and candidates.
  3. Tackle solvable problems first (like housing) while recognizing harder fights (like taxing the rich), and create a simple, unifying slogan or brand now to rally voters around a forward-looking agenda.

Can Talarico win in November?

Silver Bulletin • 607 implied HN points • 04 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. James Talarico won the Democratic primary with strong turnout where he needed it, and prediction markets proved quicker and more confident than polls in signaling his edge.
  2. The Republican race moved to a runoff between Cornyn and Paxton after polls overstated Paxton’s advantage, showing prediction markets were overconfident on the GOP side and leaving open questions about Trump’s endorsement.
  3. Crockett was not clearly more liberal than Talarico but ran a hotter, more partisan style, while Talarico’s calmer, more moderate-seeming approach likely improved his electability perception in a red state, though November will still be a tough climb for a Democrat.

Two Drinks with . . . Andrew Yang, Who Isn’t Happy About Being Right

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 162 implied HN points • 13 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Andrew Yang pushed universal basic income as a way to protect people from AI-driven mass unemployment, and his warnings that this future could arrive were widely dismissed at the time. He now appears to be seeing those predictions come true.
  2. AI is already replacing thousands of workers each month, and some experts warn unemployment could spike to 10–20% within the next five years if trends continue. This makes the economic and social impact urgent.
  3. Many voters feel neither major party is prepared to handle AI’s risks, and Yang’s vindication over his early warnings seems to have left him more depressed than triumphant.

Trump Has Had Enough of Tucker Carlson

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1117 implied HN points • 23 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Trump has privately urged Tucker Carlson to stop attacking Israel because those attacks are splitting his coalition and could hurt his chances in the midterms and the next election.
  2. Carlson has openly condemned Israel’s response to the October 7 attacks, claimed Israel has outsized influence on U.S. policy, and even suggested a nuclear-armed Iran might stabilize the region, which has alienated many pro-Israel conservatives.
  3. A recent three-hour interview with Mike Huckabee, which some hoped would be a truce, instead opened a new front and deepened the rift between Carlson and pro-Israel MAGA influencers, worrying people close to Trump.

Mid-day reading: Harris’s Campaign, Voter Trends, and 2024 Stakes

COVID Reason • 337 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Kamala Harris needs to create a strong, positive message if she wants to win against Trump. She should focus on being a visionary leader rather than just bringing up past issues.
  2. Harris is facing challenges connecting with important voter groups, especially Black men and Latino men. How she addresses these voters could really impact her campaign.
  3. The outcome of this election is crucial not just for Harris, but also for the Obama-Biden legacy. A loss could change the Democratic Party's future and influence.

War isn't what it once was

Silver Bulletin • 605 implied HN points • 02 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Wars today are different — more airpower, fewer U.S. casualties, and no draft — so the old rally-then-quagmire model is less predictive and many voters are often indifferent unless there are big casualties or attacks at home.
  2. The Iran conflict is higher-stakes politically because it can push up oil prices, is being conducted with Israel (which creates partisan tensions), and reminds voters of Iraq/Afghanistan in a way that could alienate swing voters.
  3. It might fade from public attention like recent interventions, but there are real downside risks for the president if the war escalates or creates economic pain, so the likely political effect is uncertain and tilted toward harm.

Pennsylvania Update: GOP Showing BIG Increases from 2020 and 2022

COVID Reason • 297 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Early voting in Pennsylvania shows Republicans have surged by over 51% since 2020, with an even bigger jump of 83% from 2022 to 2024.
  2. Democrats, however, are down by 14% since 2020 but have slightly increased their early voting compared to 2022.
  3. The biggest Democratic areas are in Philadelphia and Allegheny County, while places like Bedford and Fulton County are strongholds for Republicans.

Umm... Trump might actually win this thing.

COVID Reason • 693 implied HN points • 09 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Polls often underestimate Donald Trump's support, which could mean he might win in 2024 if the trend continues.
  2. Pennsylvania is crucial for the election, and recent party registration changes there could tip the scales in Trump's favor.
  3. Recent polls show Trump and his opponent, Kamala Harris, are very close, much tighter than in past elections, suggesting a competitive race.

Judicial Notice (10.13.24): October Surprises

Original Jurisdiction • 459 implied HN points • 13 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Gentner Drummond, Oklahoma's Republican Attorney General, is pushing for a retrial in a controversial death penalty case, which has created division among state officials.
  2. The Supreme Court is looking into a key case about 'ghost guns,' with arguments taking place this week, indicating the court's interest in regulating new gun technologies.
  3. Judge Stephen Higginson from the Fifth Circuit is becoming known for his support of DACA, standing out amidst contrasting views on immigration policy within his court.

Filing For Office; Choices

Points And Figures • 612 implied HN points • 02 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Filing in Nevada is simple and cash-only: candidates pay a $200 fee in person, which lowers barriers to entry compared with signature-based systems and can make races more competitive.
  2. Voters are facing ballot questions on things like ranked-choice primaries and a voter ID constitutional amendment, and registering with a party matters for participating in primaries; independents who want influence are encouraged to join a party.
  3. One candidate stresses extensive finance and leadership experience as qualification to manage the state’s $12B treasury and asks for volunteers and donations while contrasting that background with an opponent seen as inexperienced.

Business vs Politics

Points And Figures • 506 implied HN points • 04 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Business-minded people tend to decide quickly and act, while politics usually involves long consultation and slower timelines.
  2. Career politicians can make it hard to pass popular or timely measures because they move cautiously and protect entrenched processes.
  3. Putting more entrepreneurs and everyday citizens into leadership and investment roles improves decision-making and execution, and encouraging ordinary people to run for office can make government more efficient and responsive.

Beware of Libertarians Who Claim To Be Republicans

Points And Figures • 772 implied HN points • 25 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Libertarian-leaning Republicans often harm the party's chances by prioritizing ideological purity and confrontational tactics over practical strategy, costing winnable races.
  2. Effective political movements win by building disciplined coalitions and playing the long game to control their party's agenda, rather than staying on the outside.
  3. Pragmatism matters: projecting principles while winning power lets you change policy, whereas acting like a perpetual contrarian leaves you with little influence.

An Excellent Means of Electioneering

Looking Through the Past • 178 implied HN points • 20 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Political posters have played a crucial role in campaigning since the 19th century. They were used to quickly catch voters' attention and communicate key messages.
  2. The artwork on these posters often included historical references, emotional imagery, and symbols to appeal to voters. This made them both informative and visually striking.
  3. As technology improved, the design of campaign posters evolved, leading to more colorful and complex images. This innovation mirrored the way political messages became more sophisticated over time.

We Filed for Nevada State Treasurer

Points And Figures • 399 implied HN points • 03 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Filing for statewide office in Nevada is a quick, mostly digital process: make an online appointment, pay a $200 cash fee, complete the forms, and have them notarized.
  2. Filing early removes surprises and opens the door to endorsements, while also kicking off fundraising and reporting—so volunteers and even small donations really matter.
  3. This midterm is framed as a critical moment for Nevada, urging support for Republican candidates (especially reelecting the governor) and asking right-leaning independents to re-register and turn out to vote.

TGIF: Wonderful, Gracious, Charming

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1734 implied HN points • 30 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. There’s growing public outrage and bipartisan criticism after ICE and federal agents’ actions in Minneapolis, with multiple videos appearing to contradict the government’s account.
  2. That backlash is producing consequences — officials are facing scrutiny or stepping back, and a majority of voters now view ICE as too aggressive.
  3. Despite the controversy, political leaders are using the story for fundraising and messaging, with Trump reportedly leaning into the news cycle.

The Stump Speech

Points And Figures • 586 implied HN points • 24 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Local offices like school boards and library boards matter, so more people should consider running instead of sitting out.
  2. Prepare three or four short stump speeches for different time limits and practice them until they feel performative, not like you’re reading notes.
  3. Be authentic and use brief personal, verifiable stories to connect with voters. In a very short pitch, clearly say your name, the office, your website, one reason you’re running, and ask for their vote.

Could Republicans blow the Texas Senate race?

Silver Bulletin • 473 implied HN points • 24 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. The Texas Republican primary is tilting toward Ken Paxton, a MAGA-aligned, scandal-plagued candidate who leads recent polls and looks likely to make the runoff.
  2. John Cornyn is underperforming despite huge establishment backing and massive spending, so he could miss the runoff or enter the general election weakened.
  3. Candidate quality still matters: nominating a controversial Republican like Paxton could make an otherwise GOP-favored Texas Senate race noticeably more competitive for Democrats, especially if Democrats pick a crossover-friendly nominee.

Who’s the real favorite in the Texas Senate primary?

Silver Bulletin • 401 implied HN points • 26 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Nonpartisan polls generally show Jasmine Crockett ahead, but the polling picture is messy because many polls are old or candidate‑sponsored and internal polls tend to overstate support.
  2. Prediction markets have been strongly favoring James Talarico since December, creating a notable divergence from the polls and implying bettors see information the polls might be missing.
  3. High early turnout, a young diverse Democratic electorate, and a contentious campaign mean the race is uncertain and could still head to a runoff, so neither polls nor markets tell the whole story.