The hottest Epidemiology Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Health & Wellness Topics

My argument that the COVID vaccines had NO benefit

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 8 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
🏥 Health Politics Vaccines COVID-19 Public Health Epidemiology Policy Debate
  1. COVID vaccines did not lower the spread of the virus, and instead, some data suggests they might have increased it. This means that instead of helping to control the outbreak, they may have made things worse.
  2. The vaccines were expected to reduce the risk of death from COVID, but evidence shows that they possibly increased the chance of fatal outcomes in vaccinated individuals, particularly in specific vulnerable populations.
  3. Many studies and data analyses have indicated a correlation between higher vaccination rates and increased COVID cases, challenging the notion that vaccines universally provide protective benefits.

BREAKING: OFFICIAL Czech record level data shows Moderna recipients had up to a 50% higher death rate than Pfizer recipients

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
🏥 Health Politics Public Health Vaccines Mortality Epidemiology Data Transparency
  1. Data from the Czech Republic shows that people who got the Moderna vaccine have a significantly higher death rate compared to those who got the Pfizer vaccine.
  2. This higher death rate has been observed across different age groups, indicating it's not just due to older people receiving Moderna.
  3. Despite these serious findings, there seems to be a lack of action and transparency from health authorities regarding this data.

Official Czech Republic record level data released Nov 2024 confirms Moderna has nearly 50% higher ACM than Pfizer

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 10 implied HN points • 19 Jan 25
🏥 Health Politics Vaccine Safety Public Health Epidemiology Government Policy Data Analysis
  1. The Czech Republic has released detailed vaccine data for the first time, showing that the Moderna vaccine may be more dangerous than the Pfizer vaccine. This data is important for understanding vaccine safety.
  2. Analysis of this data suggests that the Moderna vaccine could increase all-cause mortality by about 50% compared to Pfizer, which raises serious concerns about its safety even outside of COVID periods.
  3. Despite this significant information available, it appears that many in the medical community are ignoring the findings, which highlights the need for more transparency in public health data.

Lateral thinking

Logging the World • 79 implied HN points • 12 Nov 22
🔬 Science Research Data Analysis Public Health Epidemiology Testing
  1. Lateral flow tests had a much lower false positive rate than many initially assumed, around 0.03%, showing their effectiveness.
  2. Data on PCR retests of positive lateral flow tests revealed a positive predictive value of 82% even at low prevalence, supporting the reliability of lateral flow tests.
  3. A rise in prevalence due to variants like delta and omicron, as well as ease in lockdown restrictions, contributed to the wider acceptance of lateral flow tests for controlling the pandemic.
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Over 200,000 Americans killed by the COVID vaccine: 10 methods, same answer

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 16 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
🏥 Health Politics Public Health Vaccination Epidemiology Health Policy Medical Ethics
  1. There are different ways to estimate how many Americans might have died due to COVID vaccines, and many of these methods point to a significant number of deaths.
  2. Studies and surveys suggest that the death toll from vaccines could be higher than the deaths caused by COVID itself, raising concerns about vaccine safety.
  3. Overall, estimates indicate that at least 200,000 Americans may have died due to the COVID vaccine, which should alarm lawmakers and the public.

Bubonic Plague in Seattle

Street Smart Naturalist: Explorations of the Urban Kind • 99 implied HN points • 27 Oct 22
🔬 Science Biology Epidemiology History Public Health Urban Ecology
  1. Rats have been a part of Seattle since European settlers arrived, often arriving by ship. They are common due to Seattle's coastal location and trash management issues.
  2. In 1908, Seattle had an outbreak of bubonic plague linked to rats and their fleas. The city took serious measures to control the rat population to prevent further outbreaks.
  3. Today, Seattle is still known for having a lot of rats. Many people unknowingly create good homes for them by not managing overgrown plants like ivy.

Australian excess deaths are highly correlated with the number of booster vaccinations

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 10 implied HN points • 05 Dec 24
🏥 Health Politics Vaccinations Public Health Epidemiology Medical Research Policy Issues
  1. More booster shots lead to more excess deaths. It suggests a possible risk factor with the vaccines.
  2. There seems to be a link between more vaccines and increased COVID cases. This raises questions about their effectiveness.
  3. The study indicates serious concerns about the safety of vaccines, suggesting that some people may have been harmed significantly.

New paper shows COVID boosters increased mortality in nursing home residents. The effect was highly statistically significant after 4 weeks.

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 8 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
🏥 Health Politics Public Health Vaccination Epidemiology Policy Analysis Statistical Analysis
  1. COVID boosters seem to increase death rates in nursing home residents, especially after four weeks. This suggests the boosters might be doing more harm than good.
  2. Initial vaccinations showed a tiny benefit, but it quickly faded and was not strong enough to justify the ongoing use of vaccines in nursing homes.
  3. Vaccinating nursing home staff appeared to negatively affect residents, leading to higher deaths. This data raises serious concerns about the overall effectiveness of these vaccines.

Do you have a family member who died from COVID after July 1, 2021?

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 3 implied HN points • 27 Jan 25
🏥 Health Politics Public Health COVID-19 Vaccination Epidemiology Policy
  1. There is a survey asking people if they lost a family member to COVID after July 1, 2021. It helps gather information on the impact of the virus during that time.
  2. If someone hasn't lost a family member to COVID after that date, they are asked not to participate in the survey. This aims to keep the responses relevant.
  3. Those who lost multiple family members should only report on the first one and their vaccination status if known. This simplifies the data collection process.

We Learned The Hard Way

Euro Desk Paris • 39 implied HN points • 22 Mar 23
🏥 Health & Wellness Mental health Epidemiology Public Health Medical Ethics
  1. The pandemic response highlighted the importance of individual responsibility and the impact of governmental decisions on society.
  2. The debate over lockdowns and restrictions raised concerns about mental health and the economic consequences of such measures.
  3. There was criticism of the authoritarian approach taken by some governments, and a call for more transparency, accountability, and public involvement in decision-making.

What are the best "gold standard" data sources for determining COVID safety and efficacy?

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 5 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🏥 Health Politics Public Health Vaccination COVID-19 Data Analysis Epidemiology
  1. It’s important to find reliable data sources to understand the COVID vaccine's impact on safety and effectiveness. Good data helps answer important questions about health.
  2. Key questions include how vaccines affect infection risk, death rates from COVID, and overall mortality rates. These questions guide the research on vaccine impact.
  3. Some of the best data sources for these questions include worldwide COVID case numbers, nursing home COVID data in the US, and detailed records from the Czech Republic.

VSRF LIVE TONIGHT: Episode 156 - The Sepsis Epidemic

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 2 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
🏥 Health Politics Public Health Epidemiology Vaccine debate Immune Response
  1. The discussion will focus on the rising number of sepsis cases worldwide and possible links to COVID-19 and its vaccines. Sepsis is a serious condition, and it's important for people to understand its implications.
  2. Experts in the field will join to share insights, including a prominent virologist and a leading doctor on sepsis treatment. Their perspectives may help shed light on why this increase is happening.
  3. The event encourages community participation, aiming to inform people on health safety this winter. It's a good opportunity to learn and share information with friends and family.

VSRF LIVE Tonight: Episode 153 - More Damning Evidence from John Beaudoin Sr. PLUS! NH State Representatives Share MORE DAMNING FINDINGS from Their Recent Report!

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 2 implied HN points • 21 Nov 24
🏥 Health Politics Public Health COVID-19 Vaccination Epidemiology Government Response
  1. John Beaudoin Sr. has been researching COVID-19 and its effects since 2020, uncovering important data about vaccine-related issues and misclassifications of deaths.
  2. New Hampshire state representatives recently released a report evaluating their government's COVID-19 response, highlighting serious flaws in the way it was handled.
  3. The discussion will focus on sharing this critical information and raising support for ongoing efforts in public health awareness.

Vaccine Week: Will it be good enough?

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 39 implied HN points • 16 Sep 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Vaccine Immunity Transmission Epidemiology
  1. The effectiveness of a COVID-19 vaccine may need to be higher than what regulatory bodies find acceptable in order to truly impact the course of the pandemic.
  2. Even with a vaccine that is 50% effective, wiping out the virus completely may be challenging, especially with lower vaccine coverage.
  3. Vaccines not only need to protect individuals from the virus but also prevent transmission to others, which can have a significant impact on overall disease spread.

B.1.1.7

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 11 Jan 21
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Vaccines Epidemiology Public Health Measures Testing
  1. The B.1.1.7 variant of SARS-CoV-2 is 50% more transmissible, likely spreading rapidly globally under several names, including 'UK Variant' and 'Supercovid.'
  2. B.1.1.7 mutations mainly affect the spike protein, raising concerns about vaccine efficacy. Current vaccines may still be effective, but wide distribution could lead to the virus evolving to evade immunity.
  3. B.1.1.7 is outcompeting other variants due to increased transmissibility rather than higher virulence, emphasizing the importance of maintaining mitigation efforts, particularly in high-risk settings, and ramping up testing to contain the spread.

The Christmas bubble

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 02 Dec 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Public Health Guidelines COVID-19 Epidemiology Vaccines
  1. The UK Christmas bubble guidelines are complex and restrict gatherings to three households from December 23 to 27.
  2. The guidelines involve various rules on traveling, meeting indoors, and choosing regions with different COVID-19 prevalence levels for forming bubbles.
  3. The guidelines are convoluted, involving scenarios like forming different bubbles from your regular household and ensuring extra precautions within households.

Testing at the door versus testing at the desk

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 21 Oct 20
🏥 Health Politics Public Health Covid-19 testing Infectious Diseases Epidemiology
  1. Consider testing at the desk instead of at the door to reduce operational challenges and costs, though it comes with the risk of letting infectious individuals into the space
  2. Testing at the desk may lead to fewer infections if it can be done more frequently than testing at the door, highlighting the importance of cost-benefit analysis in testing strategies
  3. Exploring various testing strategies, including combinations of at-the-door and at-the-desk testing, can provide a system with lower cost and less risk in managing infections

If only we knew the viral load

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 19 Oct 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Public Health PCR testing Epidemiology Infectious Diseases
  1. Knowing the viral load of infected individuals can assist in understanding the infection's stage and progression.
  2. Ct scores from PCR tests can provide critical data for pinpointing viral infection cycles and determining treatment timing.
  3. Recording and utilizing Ct scores from widespread testing can help map virus dynamics at a population level and enhance understanding without relying solely on time series data.

CDC updates isolation guidance

Your Local Epidemiologist • 2 HN points • 05 Mar 24
🏥 Health Politics Public Health Healthcare policy Epidemiology Pandemic response
  1. CDC updated isolation guidance recommends staying home when sick until fever resolves for 24 hours and symptoms improve, then using caution for five days.
  2. There is a debate within public health about the updated guidance - some see it as a step back while others believe it simplifies virus prevention measures.
  3. The guidance update considers the decrease in community transmission, the contagious period, the types of viruses being irrelevant to actions, and the critical focus on reducing hospitalizations and deaths.

Data Science Weekly - Issue 330

Data Science Weekly Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 19 Mar 20
🕹 Technology Data science Machine Learning Epidemiology Software Development Analytics
  1. COVID-19 spreads very quickly, especially without measures to control it. Understanding how outbreaks work can help people take action sooner.
  2. Data and models are essential to understanding how COVID-19 will affect local areas. People should act decisively based on available information.
  3. New tools and research in data science are helping track and analyze the impact of COVID-19. These resources are making it easier to study and respond to the pandemic.

COVID Still Makes Everybody a Little Bit Crazy

Freddie deBoer • 1 HN point • 13 Mar 24
🏥 Health Politics Public Health Policy Social justice Epidemiology
  1. COVID has caused varying degrees of anxiety and extreme reactions in people, leading to polarized beliefs and behaviors.
  2. There are different extreme perspectives on COVID from both right-leaning skeptics and left-leaning individuals, each with their own set of beliefs and theories.
  3. There is a need to balance the accommodation of vulnerable populations like the immunocompromised with making sound public health decisions based on evidence and prevalence.

Data Science Weekly - Issue 259

Data Science Weekly Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 08 Nov 18
🕹 Technology Data science Machine Learning AI Analytics Epidemiology
  1. Seattle and Houston provided large amounts of email metadata quickly, but Seattle's request came with a twist that led to an accidental extensive data collection.
  2. A machine-learned model called FINDER is being tested to detect foodborne illnesses in real-time using web search and location data.
  3. There are innovative projects like 'dankstimate' which aim to create a cannabis price estimator similar to Zillow's home price estimates.

So you want to achieve herd immunity

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 04 Nov 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Epidemiology Infectious Diseases Public Health Preventive measures Immunity
  1. Achieving herd immunity through infection can be a challenging policy due to individual behaviors impacting the rate of infection.
  2. To accelerate the spread of Covid-19 for herd immunity, potential strategies include mask prohibitions, creating situations for people to congregate indoors for extended periods, and avoiding widespread testing.
  3. Implementing unconventional and counterintuitive measures like not announcing vaccine progress, encouraging large gatherings such as political rallies, or subsidizing risky activities could be attempts to expedite herd immunity.

Insanity and weirdness

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 31 Dec 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Public Health Pandemic Management Vaccination Epidemiology COVID-19
  1. The global pandemic has brought unexpected challenges and changes in management approach, shifting towards individual risk management, which raises concerns about lack of tools to help people self-manage effectively.
  2. The Omicron variant of COVID-19 has unique characteristics that make it highly infectious but less severe, potentially leading to complacency and overlooking the risks of continued virus circulation and possible mutations.
  3. There is a risk of complacency and potential resurgence of the pandemic if steps are not taken to prepare for scenarios where the virus mutates to become more infectious and virulent, highlighting the importance of staying vigilant and prepared for the future.

The worst will come in 2021-22

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 15 Dec 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Epidemiology Prevention Vaccination Healthcare system Immunity
  1. The forecasted surge in Covid-19 cases for early 2022, particularly due to factors like reduced mitigation efforts, insufficient vaccination rates, and new variants, appears to be unfolding with the Omicron variant spreading rapidly.
  2. Preparation for the upcoming outbreaks includes obtaining N95 masks and rapid tests, having a plan to care for vulnerable individuals cautiously, and prioritizing booster shots for older individuals.
  3. Despite the likelihood of increased Covid-19 cases in the near future, the message emphasizes the importance of patience over panic, with outbreaks expected to be intense but relatively short-lived.

Nu or COVID-21?

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 26 Nov 21
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Vaccines Epidemiology
  1. The concern is about a new strain, B.1.1.529, and its impact compared to existing variants of COVID-19 - the key question being whether it is new enough to cause significant issues.
  2. The worrying factor includes the high mutation rate in the spike protein of B.1.1.529, the uncertainty about its classification as a new variant or a new disease, and the potential origin from animal populations.
  3. The positive aspects involve B.1.1.529 being detectable by existing tests, limited data showing it spreading in a population with a low vaccination rate, and the opportunity for quicker monitoring of cases due to specific patterns in diagnostic tests.

Australia's upcoming storm

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 26 May 21
🏥 Health Politics COVID-19 Response Public Health Government Strategy Vaccination policy Epidemiology
  1. Australia's strict quarantine and closed borders may not be sustainable in the long run due to vaccine hesitancy and slow vaccination rates.
  2. Historical examples show that successfully keeping a respiratory virus out of Australia is extremely challenging.
  3. The alternative to Australia's current strategy is to give up on Covid-Zero and focus on containing outbreaks through testing, tracing, and vaccination while living with the virus.

What does vaccination mean for rapid screening?

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 12 Apr 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Vaccination Immunity Monitoring Screening Epidemiology
  1. As vaccination rates increase, the need for rapid screening to prevent outbreaks remains crucial because both vaccines and screening can help control the spread of Covid-19.
  2. The effectiveness of rapid screening in reducing the risk of outbreaks significantly increases as the percentage of vaccinated individuals rises, highlighting the importance of combining vaccination with screening.
  3. There is a potential issue of waning immunity post-vaccination, especially among older populations, which could lead to the re-emergence of Covid-19. This emphasizes the need for a surveillance plan to monitor immunity levels in the vaccinated population and address any possible resurgence.

The problem with R-targeting

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 20 Jan 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Epidemiology Policies Masks Vaccines
  1. Targeting reproduction numbers (R) in epidemics is common, but focusing on the average R can be misleading because individual variances matter.
  2. Policies like lockdowns and screening programs can be more effective in reducing both average R and its variance, making them reliable indicators of success.
  3. Understanding how policies impact the variance of R is crucial to ensuring sustained mitigation of outbreaks and keeping case numbers down.

The Liverpool Experiment

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 08 Jan 21
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Rapid tests Public Health Epidemiology
  1. A large-scale Covid-19 testing experiment was conducted in Liverpool using a combination of PCR and rapid antigen tests, impacting almost 500,000 people.
  2. Confirmatory PCR tests for positive rapid test results had poor uptake, highlighting challenges in ensuring follow-up testing.
  3. The quality of rapid tests varied, emphasizing the importance of recording and evaluating batch and test type information to identify production issues.

Vaccine doses ... again

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 04 Jan 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Vaccines COVID-19 Public Health Epidemiology Immunity
  1. There is a debate about the effectiveness of administering two vaccine doses versus one, with some evidence showing that a single dose could be adequate in certain situations.
  2. The timing of vaccine doses is crucial, with considerations on how to maximize the number of people vaccinated and the potential risks of delaying the second dose.
  3. Mathematical calculations play a role in determining the efficacy of first doses first strategy, but there are complexities involved, including capacity, prevalence of the virus, and the role of vaccines in reducing spread.

Economists "versus" epidemiologists

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 25 Nov 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Epidemiology Public Health Economics Data Communication
  1. Economists and epidemiologists have distinct biases, with the former focused on persuasive economic arguments while the latter often struggles to convince people to act on health advice.
  2. Epidemiologists tend to highlight worst-case scenarios to persuade action, which can sometimes lead to mistrust in projections and slower government responses.
  3. The tools of persuasion differ between economists and epidemiologists, with economists relying on data while epidemiologists are still evolving their policy-making approaches.

The book is online

Digital Epidemiology • 0 implied HN points • 28 Mar 23
📚 Literature Digital Epidemiology
  1. The book 'Digital Epidemiology' is now available online at www.digitalepibook.com.
  2. Seven out of ten chapters have been released, with more to come.
  3. There may be an additional chapter focusing on AI in digital epidemiology, depending on reader interest and publisher negotiations.

What have we learned about the coronavirus?

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 21 Sep 20
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Policy Data Analysis Epidemiology Public Health
  1. The growth rate of daily deaths from COVID-19 falls rapidly within 30 days post reaching 25 cumulative deaths, a pattern observed universally.
  2. After the initial decline, the growth rate of daily deaths hovers around zero or slightly below, suggesting a steady rate of new deaths each day.
  3. Variability in growth rates of deaths among regions decreases after the initial epidemic period, stabilizing around zero, indicating similar experiences across regions.

Test Week: The Information Gap

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 17 Aug 20
🔬 Science Health Testing Epidemiology Information Decisions
  1. Testing for a virus like Covid-19 helps solve the information problem for pandemics, potentially saving costs and impacting decisions like diagnosis, clearance, surveillance, and mitigation.
  2. The effectiveness of tests relies on the prevalence of the virus in the population; when prevalence is low, test results can be noisier and less useful.
  3. Contact tracing complements testing by providing additional information, especially in increasing the value of imperfect tests by identifying those more likely to be infected.

Why R tends towards 1

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 12 Aug 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Epidemiology Human behavior Public Health Pandemics Immunity
  1. People's behavior plays a significant role in determining how a pandemic like Covid-19 progresses, even more than epidemiological models predict.
  2. Understanding the concept of R0, the basic reproduction number, helps in identifying peak infection points and herd immunity thresholds.
  3. Human behavior can cause fluctuations in the effective reproduction rate of a virus, ultimately leading to an equilibrium point where the virus becomes stable and endemic.