The hottest Financial Markets Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

Fortune tellers

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 13 Feb 26
💰 Finance Financial Markets
  1. Chinese investors often use superstitions like horoscopes when making investment decisions, showing a cultural difference from the West.
  2. A lab experiment found positive Chinese fortune-telling reports raised willingness to invest by over 20 percentage points, and Chinese horoscopes influenced choices more than Western ones.
  3. Worryingly, venture capital managers were even more swayed than individual investors, so these beliefs can meaningfully affect market behavior.

Financial Bubbles: How They Make Us Poorer

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 17 implied HN points • 23 Dec 25
💰 Finance Financial Markets
  1. When central banks pump money and push down interest rates, cheap credit funds projects that wouldn’t be viable under normal market conditions, creating malinvestment and financial bubbles.
  2. Those bubble activities are unsustainable and tend to collapse when money supply growth or cheap lending falls, causing boom–bust cycles, distorted prices, and economic harm.
  3. The cure is to stop monetary meddling and cut government spending so investment reflects real savings and consumer demand; simple tax swaps won’t fix the problem if overall spending keeps rising.

Noise!

Lewis Enterprises • 157 implied HN points • 30 Apr 23
💰 Finance Financial Markets
  1. Economics is better appreciated as a history of thought rather than an explanatory science.
  2. Fischer Black simplified complex financial models to focus on crucial elements.
  3. The concept of 'noise' in the financial markets affects our ability to predict returns and understand economic variables.

The Market Vs. The Bank of Japan

Japan Economy Watch • 319 implied HN points • 20 Dec 22
💰 Finance Financial Markets
  1. Market pressure forced the Bank of Japan to increase the maximum rate of 10-year Japan Government Bonds
  2. BOJ Governor Kuroda believes the rate hike was a technical measure, not a start of tightening monetary policy
  3. The outcome will be shaped by factors like BOJ's bond purchases, impact of interest rate rises on businesses, value of the yen, and course of inflation
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Hedge Funds - A Beginner's Guide

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 199 implied HN points • 01 Jun 23
💰 Finance Financial Markets
  1. Hedge funds are private investment funds managed by professionals who use different strategies to earn high returns for wealthy investors. They're not open to everyone, and there's less regulation.
  2. Hedge funds can use strategies like long and short selling to profit from market changes. Long selling means buying with the hope the price will go up, while short selling means selling borrowed assets to profit if prices drop.
  3. Many people dislike hedge fund managers due to a lack of transparency and the perception that they profit during tough times for others. Plus, it's tough for regular folks to invest in hedge funds as they often have high minimum requirements.

The Treasury's Gambit

Concoda • 653 implied HN points • 27 May 23
💰 Finance Financial Markets
  1. Monetary leaders are implementing new tools to prevent instability in the bond market and stimulate risk assets without central bank assistance.
  2. Regulatory constraints have hindered major liquidity providers in the Treasury market, leading to the need for Treasury buyback programs to enhance liquidity.
  3. The U.S. Treasury is set to conduct buyback programs in 2024 to manage cash, boost liquidity, and potentially lower expenses and yields in the secondary Treasury market.

WSJ Editorial Cites My Writings on BOJ Dilemma

Japan Economy Watch • 179 implied HN points • 18 Jan 23
💰 Finance Financial Markets
  1. The Bank of Japan decided to maintain its monetary policy which initially impacted the currency exchange rate and bond yields.
  2. An editorial in the Wall Street Journal referenced writings by Richard Katz concerning the BOJ policy, shedding light on the ongoing discussions.
  3. Richard Katz had a letter to the editor published in response to an op-ed about BOJ policy, showcasing differing opinions and contributing to the dialogue.

The path to a new sovereign accounting

Gray Mirror • 35 implied HN points • 03 Aug 25
💰 Finance Financial Markets
  1. Complex financial systems often hide the reality of the economy. When things are complicated, it can be hard to see the true state of finances.
  2. Merging the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve could simplify how the government manages money. This change would make it clearer that they are part of the same system.
  3. The money supply is being diluted to support the economy, not just through jobs. This means our financial stability relies on printing more money, impacting everyone differently.

Daily Chartbook #389

Daily Chartbook • 262 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
💰 Finance Financial Markets
  1. Daily Chartbook #389 is a paid post on substack with 30 charts to catch up on the day.
  2. The content is exclusive to paid subscribers, offering in-depth insights for those interested.
  3. Readers can sign in if they are already paid subscribers or choose to subscribe to access the content.

Easy Money

Dana Blankenhorn: Facing the Future • 39 implied HN points • 07 Feb 24
💼 Business Financial Markets
  1. The easy money era since 2008 has allowed individuals to rapidly amass wealth through financial maneuvering.
  2. Billionaires have a responsibility to the system that enabled their wealth, and disrespecting that system is unacceptable.
  3. Democracy is under threat due to the attitude of newly wealthy individuals who view themselves as superior beings.

Hot Take on Alternative Data

The Data Score • 59 implied HN points • 07 Jul 23
🕹 Technology Financial Markets
  1. Generating actionable insights from data is challenging and requires effort.
  2. Financial market professionals often start with questions and work backward to find answers using data.
  3. Data companies need to focus on aligning their products with clients' desired outcomes and ensuring data is easy to work with.

The Bull Case for Alternative Data

The Data Score • 59 implied HN points • 11 Apr 23
💰 Finance Financial Markets
  1. The Alternative Data industry is currently facing challenges but has the potential for long-term success by emphasizing clear client outcomes and building network effects.
  2. Understanding the value clients gain from data insights is crucial, as insights drive decisions and financial outcomes.
  3. Creating network effects and aligning data teams with critical client outcomes are key factors for the Alternative Data industry to move towards sustained growth and productivity.

The Paradox of Finding Surprising Insights in Alternative Data

The Data Score • 59 implied HN points • 22 Jun 23
💼 Business Financial Markets
  1. Institutional investors need to find surprising insights in data but also be skeptical of them to ensure accuracy and avoid errors.
  2. When using alternative data to make predictions, it's crucial to verify if the insights answer the right questions and differ from the market consensus.
  3. Digging into the data through various methods like independent validation, error margin assessment, and data integrity checks is essential for investors to ensure the reliability of surprising insights.

Paul Schmelzing Is Coming to Berkeley to Talk About Interest Rates since 1310!

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 130 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
💰 Finance Financial Markets
  1. The graph shows a decline in global real interest rates over 800 years, challenging the idea of 'secular stagnation'.
  2. Interest rates' evolution over history raises questions about the relationship between the rate of profit, societal changes, and financial market dynamics.
  3. Factors like technological progress, income growth, and human behaviors impact the slope of the real intertemporal price system, affecting interest rates.

It Only Takes One Data Point to Disprove an Investment Thesis

The Data Score • 19 implied HN points • 09 Jan 24
💰 Finance Financial Markets
  1. It only takes one data point to disprove an investment thesis by testing for the counterfactual, which allows identifying data points that go against the thesis.
  2. A question-driven approach to investing focuses on formulating the right questions to deeply understand the investment landscape, prioritizing curiosity and critical thinking.
  3. Designing an investment thesis involves setting measurable outcomes, defining timeframes, identifying dependencies, establishing checkpoints, and being aware of the current valuation. It's crucial to recognize what's in the valuation already and how your views differ.

Europe's Financial Crime Hunters

False Positive • 19 implied HN points • 21 Dec 23
💰 Finance Financial Markets
  1. ACER, an EU agency, functions as supranational detectives to monitor energy markets in all member states and detect international manipulation.
  2. Energy market liberalization created opportunities for financial crimes like manipulation through financial contracts rather than actual energy trading.
  3. The EU is establishing AMLA to combat cross-border money laundering, introducing a supranational monitoring system to address weaknesses in the current national-level approach.

What Alt Data Should Learn from Alt Rock

The Data Score • 19 implied HN points • 14 Jul 23
💼 Business Financial Markets
  1. The success of alternative rock band Nirvana in the 1990s can be seen as a tale of achieving product-market fit, blending novelty with familiarity, and capturing lightning in a bottle
  2. Just like how Nirvana and alternative rock made their way into the mainstream, alternative data companies need to craft unique, valuable products that merge novelty with familiarity to cater to a wider audience
  3. Challenges in adopting alternative data include aligning products with client needs, making data accessible, and building a narrative around data products to drive adoption and ensure impact

The crisis VCs face turning investments into cash returns

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 14 Oct 24
💼 Business Financial Markets
  1. Venture capitalists are struggling to turn their investments into cash returns. This means they are having a tough time selling their stakes in companies for a profit.
  2. There has been a significant drop in the number of venture-backed company exits. The amount of money made from these exits is now much lower than it was in previous years.
  3. The slow pace of returns is affecting the number of active venture funds. Many funds have stopped working or reduced in size because of the less promising investment environment.

The Great Depositor Bailout

MD&A • 78 implied HN points • 14 Mar 23
💰 Finance Financial Markets
  1. Depositing money in a bank is a safe store of value but doesn't yield much return.
  2. Depositors face risks like losing purchasing power due to inflation.
  3. Inflation can benefit borrowers like the government and households, while bank depositors bear the brunt of losing purchasing power.

The Death of Credit Suisse

Apricitas Economics • 64 implied HN points • 25 Mar 23
💰 Finance Financial Markets
  1. Credit Suisse faced major financial issues over several years, with losses, leaked data, and fines leading to its demise.
  2. Swiss authorities forced Credit Suisse to merge with UBS to prevent a public collapse and global financial crisis.
  3. The fallout from Credit Suisse's fall includes impacts on European banks, market confidence, and central bank efforts to stabilize the financial system.

Fed may generate sugar rush in 2026

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 25 Nov 25
💰 Finance Financial Markets
  1. The Fed could cut interest rates much more aggressively in 2026 than markets currently expect, partly because of political pressure to ease quickly.
  2. The central bank’s stance has swung from dovish to hawkish and back again, which has left investors unsure about the future path of policy.
  3. If big cuts happen, they could trigger a short-lived "sugar rush" — a rapid but temporary boost to growth and markets in 2026.

Trump's Banks

Net Interest • 13 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
💰 Finance Financial Markets
  1. Trump has had a complex and fluctuating relationship with Wall Street, relying on banks for significant funding throughout his career. His ventures often led to defaults and bankruptcies, causing lenders to hesitate to work with him later.
  2. Deutsche Bank played a crucial role in Trump's financing, lending him over $2 billion despite his previous financial troubles. This close relationship also implicated the bank in legal issues related to Trump's financial practices.
  3. Trump has shifted his main banking relationships over time, now primarily working with a smaller bank called Axos Financial. Following his election win, his creditworthiness improved, benefiting both him and the bank.

Clouded Judgement 10.25.24 - Misaligned Incentives

Clouded Judgement • 13 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
💼 Business Financial Markets
  1. Venture capitalists are changing how they work with founders. Instead of focusing on big wins together, some are now just trying to make quick money from management fees.
  2. Founders should be careful about raising too much money too early. Getting larger sums from investors can often come with higher valuations, which can hurt the business long-term.
  3. It's important for founders to know how many other companies their investors are supporting. If an investor has too many companies, they might not have enough time to help yours succeed.

Macroeconomics with Price Theoretic Foundations

Economic Forces • 5 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
💰 Finance Financial Markets
  1. Understanding finance is really important for macroeconomics. It helps us figure out how markets work and how different factors impact the economy.
  2. The no-arbitrage principle in finance shows that prices should adjust quickly to eliminate profit opportunities. This means that if something is cheaper in one place, it won't stay that way for long.
  3. We can analyze macroeconomic theories using tools from price theory. This allows us to test predictions and better understand how things like interest rates and asset prices relate to the economy.

Venstappen Victory Lap

Malt Liquidity • 8 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
💰 Finance Financial Markets
  1. Food delivery companies like Doordash may struggle to sustain growth post-lockdowns, facing challenges with profitability and expanding their customer base.
  2. Central bank policies face challenges in balancing inflation control and market stability, leading to potential risks of speculative bubbles and volatility.
  3. Inflation can impact investment decisions, prompting individuals to seek ways to outpace the rate of return to counter its effects.

Quant Letter: August 2023, Week 1

The Parlour • 12 implied HN points • 02 Aug 23
💰 Finance Financial Markets
  1. The featured papers discussed in the newsletter are 'Displaced by Big Data,' 'Deep Learning for Corporate Bonds,' and 'Exploiting the dynamics of commodity futures curves.'
  2. The newsletter highlights research on whether new data diminishes the advantages of active fund managers with industry expertise.
  3. Readers are encouraged to subscribe for a 7-day free trial to access the full post archives.

Alert: Central Bank of Nigeria Circular FMD/DIR/PUB/CIR/001/008

RegAlert • 0 implied HN points • 28 Dec 23
💰 Finance Financial Markets
  1. Financial institutions in Nigeria must submit their financial market transaction signature mandate to the Central Bank of Nigeria's Financial Markets Department, detailing authorized dealers, dealing mandates, transaction limits, and annual review requirements.
  2. The signature mandate should include full names, designations, level of authority, and transaction limits of authorized officers, with any changes promptly communicated. Submissions are due by January 12, 2024.
  3. This circular FMD/DIR/PUB/CIR/001/008 emphasizes the importance of transparency, accountability, and clear communication within financial institutions regarding financial market transactions and authorized officers.

Alan Greenspan, the Blind Oracle

Japan Economy Watch • 0 implied HN points • 28 Jan 14
💰 Finance Financial Markets
  1. Many experts actually did foresee the 2008 U.S. financial crisis even if they couldn't predict its timing or severity.
  2. Alan Greenspan's lack of regulation in financial markets contributed to imbalances, malfeasance, and corruption.
  3. The root cause of the financial crisis was not irrational 'animal spirits', as argued by Greenspan.

The Crypto Currency Debate: Future of Money or Speculative Hype?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 02 Aug 17
🔮 Crypto Financial Markets
  1. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ether have seen huge price increases, but they are still new and not widely used for everyday transactions.
  2. The blockchain technology behind cryptocurrencies is real and valuable, but for these currencies to succeed, they need to be more reliable and accepted as money.
  3. Many people are interested in cryptocurrencies as investments more than as actual currencies, which makes it hard for them to be used for purchases.

Alert: Central Bank of Nigeria Circular FMD/DIR/PUB/CIR/001/011

RegAlert • 0 implied HN points • 30 Jan 24
💰 Finance Financial Markets
  1. Financial institutions must provide transparent pricing in financial market transactions to avoid market manipulation.
  2. The Central Bank of Nigeria warns against underreporting transaction rates and using 'second cheques' as these practices will be sanctioned.
  3. Compliance with CBN rules and guidelines is crucial for a well-functioning and transparent financial market.

Vol. 3, No. 19 — Time to rejoyce

Valuabl • 0 implied HN points • 15 Sep 23
💰 Finance Financial Markets
  1. The boss of Australia's biggest airline has resigned, sparking potential opportunities for value investors.
  2. Saudi Arabia has reduced oil production to increase prices and boost their profits.
  3. There is value in financial transaction processing as discussed in this issue.