The hottest Investment Analysis Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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January 2017 Data Update 7: Profitability, Excess Returns and Governance

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 30 Jan 17
💼 Business Investment Analysis
  1. Companies need to earn more than their cost of capital to be successful. Just making money isn't enough; they must create value for their investors.
  2. Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is a common way to measure how well a company is doing, but it has its flaws. Investors should be careful when interpreting this metric for young or troubled companies.
  3. There are many companies that are not creating value for their shareholders, with a large number classified as 'value destroyers.' This can limit resources for better investment opportunities in the economy.

January 2016 Data Update 5: Making a case for corporate governance

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 21 Jan 16
💼 Business Investment Analysis
  1. More than half of publicly traded companies don't make enough returns to cover their costs, meaning they might actually be losing value instead of gaining it.
  2. Some companies consistently make bad investment choices, but their managers often stay in place because it's hard to change leadership or hold them accountable in many parts of the world.
  3. Certain industries, like tobacco, perform much better than others, like oil, which struggled due to falling prices, showing there are businesses that keep failing while managers fail to recognize the problems.

January 2016 Data Update 4: The Costs of Capital

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 14 Jan 16
💰 Finance Investment Analysis
  1. The cost of capital is crucial for businesses as it helps determine where to invest. Companies need to know the minimum returns needed to justify their investments.
  2. It plays a key role in deciding the mix of debt and equity a company should use. Understanding this mix can optimize financial performance.
  3. Different sectors have varying costs of capital due to risk factors. It's important to use a cost of capital that reflects the specific risks of investments being considered.

Aging in Dog Years? The Short, Glorious Life of a Successful Tech Company!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 09 Dec 15
💼 Business Investment Analysis
  1. Tech companies can grow quickly because they often have easier market entry and can scale fast. This means they can become popular in a short time.
  2. However, once tech companies mature, they struggle to maintain their success. Their advantages fade away faster than in other industries.
  3. When tech companies start to decline, they do so rapidly because new competitors can easily enter the market and attract customers. This makes it hard for them to recover.

Decoding Currency Risk: Pictures of Global Risk - Part IV

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 30 Jul 15
💰 Finance Investment Analysis
  1. When valuing something, it's important to match the currency of your cash flows with your discount rate. This is because different currencies have varying expected inflation rates, which can affect both the cash flows and the discount rates.
  2. You should be careful when estimating expected growth rates and cash flows, as they need to reflect the same inflation assumptions used for discount rates. If they don't match, you might miscalculate a company's value.
  3. It's essential to separate your views on currency movements from your company valuations. A well-run company should be worth the same regardless of the currency used, as long as the valuation methods are consistent.
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Alibaba's Governance by Politburo: Corporate Governance and Value

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 16 Sep 14
💼 Business Investment Analysis
  1. Alibaba's ownership structure gives almost no power to shareholders, making it more like a dictatorship than a democracy. Shareholders can feel powerless since they don't have a real say in decisions.
  2. Good corporate governance is important, but it doesn't always guarantee better performance or higher value. Sometimes, companies with strong CEOs may perform well despite lacking accountability.
  3. Investors have different views on management power. Some see it as a strength, believing a strong CEO can drive growth, while others worry about the risks of poor decisions without checks and balances.

Rebirth and Reincarnation: Escaping the corporate death spiral

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 28 Sep 13
💼 Business Investment Analysis
  1. Companies need to realize when their old methods don't work anymore. It's important for them to accept change and be willing to let go of past practices.
  2. A strong leader or 'change agent' is crucial for any corporate transformation. This person helps push for new ideas and can come from inside or outside the company.
  3. Having a clear plan for change is essential. Companies need to provide new direction and focus, along with actions that support their new goals.

Decline and Denial: Thoughts on Blackberry Endgame and Microsoft as Value Trap

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 24 Sep 13
💼 Business Investment Analysis
  1. Businesses go through a life cycle just like people. They are born, grow, mature, decline, and can eventually die.
  2. When companies face decline, they often react with anger or denial instead of accepting their situation. This can lead to poor decisions that harm investors.
  3. Value traps happen when companies look cheap on paper but continue to struggle because management insists on pursuing growth instead of focusing on returning money to shareholders.

Breaking up is easy to do...

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 21 Sep 11
💼 Business Investment Analysis
  1. Many companies break up into smaller parts to increase their value. Sometimes, they think the whole company is worth less than its pieces.
  2. Breaking up can also help companies avoid problems with laws or reputations that drag them down. It's like getting rid of your bad parts to make the good parts shine.
  3. But not all breakups are smart. Sometimes, companies lose benefits like shared resources or have a harder time getting money after splitting up.

Capital Structure: Optimal or Opportunisitic?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 09 Sep 10
💼 Business Investment Analysis
  1. Finding the right balance between debt and equity is crucial for businesses. This balance can help lower costs and improve management discipline.
  2. Companies often make financing decisions based on their perceptions of debt costs versus equity costs. This can lead to risky borrowing if firms get too confident.
  3. Setting a flexible range for optimal debt levels can help companies avoid taking on too much debt. This way, they can react to market conditions without overextending themselves.

Currency Choices in Valuation

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 16 Apr 10
💰 Finance Investment Analysis
  1. You should value a company in the currency that is easiest for you to access information in. It shouldn't matter which currency you choose because the company's value should stay the same.
  2. Your discount rate is influenced by the currency you select, especially the risk-free rate, which varies with inflation. Always ensure your cash flows and discount rate are in the same currency.
  3. To avoid currency confusion, you can analyze in real terms, using real discount rates and cash flows. It's important to stick with your initial currency choice throughout the analysis.

Emerging versus Developed Markets: The margin shrinks in 2010

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 31 Jan 10
💰 Finance Investment Analysis
  1. Emerging markets are seeing more companies being publicly traded, which makes their financial markets grow and become stronger. This is especially true in big economies like India, China, and Brazil.
  2. Liquidity issues are now affecting both emerging and developed markets, showing that crises can happen anywhere. Emerging markets are becoming more liquid as local investor bases expand.
  3. The risk of government default is being reconsidered, as some developed market governments show vulnerabilities. People are starting to value companies in emerging markets more based on their fundamentals rather than government risks.

Bond Ratings: Why, how and what next?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 14 Oct 09
💰 Finance Investment Analysis
  1. Bond ratings help investors understand the credit risk of borrowing companies. Ratings agencies provide this information because individual investors often lack the knowledge to assess it themselves.
  2. Bond rating changes can affect market prices, but often prices react before the rating changes happen. This shows that while ratings are useful, they can be slow to reflect current risks.
  3. Though there are concerns about conflict of interest because ratings agencies are paid by the companies they rate, it's important to recognize that many factors contribute to bond performance, not just these ratings.

Dealing with Hybrids

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 19 Mar 09
💰 Finance Investment Analysis
  1. Hybrids are financial instruments that combine debt and equity, making them tricky to analyze. It’s best to break them down into their components to truly understand their value.
  2. Convertible debt is a common hybrid, where the lender can convert their loan into equity later. Treating it as just debt can mislead people into thinking it’s cheaper than it actually is.
  3. Preferred stock is a tougher hybrid to handle and needs special consideration. It often doesn't fit neatly into the debt or equity categories like other hybrids.

What is debt?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 07 Mar 09
💰 Finance Investment Analysis
  1. Debt involves fixed payments that must be made regardless of a company's financial situation. If a company doesn't make these payments, it risks losing control over its assets.
  2. Interest payments on traditional loans and bonds are usually clearly defined, making them straightforward to classify as debt. However, items like accounts payable are trickier because their costs are often included in broader categories without clear interest rates.
  3. Lease commitments are considered debt because they involve contractual obligations and can have legal consequences if unpaid. For many companies, lease payments represent a significant portion of their overall debt.

What betas can... and cannot do...

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 08 Feb 09
💰 Finance Investment Analysis
  1. Betas are measures of relative risk, showing how exposed a stock is to market changes. A stock with a beta of 1.2 is more sensitive to market risks than an average stock.
  2. Betas can't explain overall market changes because they average out to one. If one stock's beta rises, others will fall, so they don’t explain all market movements.
  3. Betas also don’t capture risks unique to specific firms, like legal issues for tobacco companies or approval processes for biotech firms.

Corporate Finance - post crisis

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 19 Jan 09
💰 Finance Investment Analysis
  1. Investment analysis will shift to more probabilistic methods rather than just relying on expected values. This means looking at a range of possible outcomes instead of one average guess.
  2. We can expect higher risk premiums for both stocks and bonds in the near future. This change is due to increasing uncertainty, especially in both developed and emerging markets.
  3. Companies will focus on having more cash and be cautious about paying dividends. They might prefer flexible options like stock buybacks instead of committing to regular dividends.

Sticky dividends!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 27 Dec 08
💰 Finance Investment Analysis
  1. Many companies stick to their dividend payments, even during tough times. This shows their commitment to returning value to shareholders.
  2. In recent months, some companies have started changing their dividend habits due to market challenges. Pfizer, for example, didn't increase its dividend for the first time in over four decades.
  3. The uncertainty in capital markets is making companies more cautious. They are now prioritizing having cash reserves to weather potential financial troubles.

Blackstone's Woes: Some thoughts on Private Equity

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 06 Nov 08
💰 Finance Investment Analysis
  1. Even experienced investors can make big mistakes when they get swept up in trends. It's important to stay grounded and think critically about decisions.
  2. Basic financial principles matter, and ignoring them can lead to serious problems. If a business can't generate cash right now, it's risky to take on debt.
  3. Private equity firms can face the same issues as regular investors, they just have more money involved. A downturn can hurt them just as much.