The hottest Risk Substack posts right now

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The techno-optimist's fallacy

Slow Boring • 7429 implied HN points • 23 Oct 23
🕹 Technology Innovation AI Ethics Risk Progress
  1. The fallacy of assuming all technological progress is inherently good is a common mistake.
  2. The nuclear energy industry faced significant opposition in the 1970s, impacting energy policies and environmental outcomes.
  3. While technological progress is vital, it is crucial to acknowledge that technology can have negative impacts that need to be addressed.

Frame of Reference

Doomberg • 7718 implied HN points • 25 Jul 23
🔬 Science Energy Technology Safety Risk Propaganda
  1. Fatal energy-related incidents occur due to the risks in harnessing, storing, and transporting energy.
  2. Despite tragedies, society often continues to utilize energy sources by weighing risks and benefits.
  3. The nuclear energy industry faces disproportionate fear and opposition compared to other energy sources.

What Could Possibly Go Wrong with Sam Altman’s New Ambitions?

Marcus on AI • 2489 implied HN points • 09 Feb 24
🕹 Technology AI Security Finance Ethics Risk
  1. Sam Altman's new ambitions involve projects with significant financial and technological implications, such as automating tasks by taking over user devices and seeking trillions of dollars to reshape the business of chips and AI.
  2. There are concerns about the potential consequences and risks of these ambitious projects, including security vulnerabilities, potential misuse of control over user devices, and the massive financial implications.
  3. The field of AI may not be mature enough to handle the challenges presented by these ambitious projects, and there are doubts about the feasibility, safety, and ethical implications of executing these plans.
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A misleading open letter about sci-fi AI dangers ignores the real risks

AI Snake Oil • 1171 implied HN points • 29 Mar 23
🕹 Technology AI Ethics Security Policy Risk
  1. Misinformation, labor impact, and safety are key AI risks raised in an open letter.
  2. Speculative risks like malicious disinformation campaigns overlook real harm caused by over-reliance on AI tools.
  3. Addressing near-term security risks from AI integration into real-world applications is crucial, and the containment mindset may not be effective.

Risk Reading for the Holiday Season

Risk Musings • 458 implied HN points • 02 Dec 23
🚌 Education Reading Risk Books Writing
  1. Stephanie's risk-focused reading list includes books on AI, cyber-weapons, corporate influence, economic disparities, and hopeful history.
  2. The books cover topics like AI risk, cybersecurity, corporate influence, economic disparities, and hope for humanity.
  3. Stephanie is interested in forming a risk book club and reading books in a group setting.

Lululemon

Business Breakdowns • 275 implied HN points • 23 May 23
💼 Business Retail E-commerce Strategy Management Risk
  1. Lululemon dominates luxury athleisure market with loyal customers and high-quality products.
  2. The company has strong revenue segments, with high margins in direct-to-consumer sales.
  3. Industry trends and growth opportunities in menswear and international markets support Lululemon's continued success.

You Can Be an Entrepreneur Without Being a Founder

Insight Axis • 217 implied HN points • 30 Jul 23
💼 Business Entrepreneurship Risk Leverage
  1. Entrepreneurship is not limited to being a startup founder with venture capital, it is a broader concept that involves problem-solving, risk-taking, and resource management.
  2. Common definitions of entrepreneurship emphasize risk-taking and creating economic value, but a more inclusive definition should focus on problem-solving with limited resources and seeking leverage.
  3. Examples of entrepreneurship span beyond traditional business ventures and can include activities like writing on platforms such as Substack or a college student taking unconventional steps to secure internships.

Reading the game

The Uncertainty Mindset (soon to become tbd) • 119 implied HN points • 20 Sep 23
📖 Philosophy Risk Uncertainty Decision-making Game Theory Innovation
  1. Most games are about taking risks rather than dealing with true uncertainty. In games, the rules and winning conditions are usually clear.
  2. Understanding the difference between risky situations and those filled with true uncertainty is important. Real-life problems, like climate change, involve a lot more unknowns.
  3. To get better at handling uncertainty, we should expose ourselves regularly to uncertain situations. This helps us learn and grow in a world that often feels unpredictable.

What Killed Signature Bank?

Apricitas Economics • 39 implied HN points • 01 Apr 23
💰 Finance Banking Crypto Regulation Assets Risk
  1. Signature Bank faced a severe bank run due to rapid withdrawal of deposits, leading to its collapse.
  2. The bank's heavy reliance on uninsured deposits, especially from crypto-related sources, contributed to its downfall.
  3. Regulators stepped in to prevent further financial contagion, highlighting the need for managing risks of fast-paced bank runs.

Pathologist reports a stunning 52% increase in cancer risk for ages 15-59 who were vaxxed

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 12 implied HN points • 05 Mar 24
🏥 Health Politics COVID-19 Vaccines Cancer Risk Research
  1. A pathologist in Croatia reported a 52% increase in cancer risk for ages 15-59 who were vaccinated.
  2. The study showed that vaccinated individuals had a higher risk of developing carcinomas compared to unvaccinated individuals.
  3. The pathologist does not recommend vaccinations and most people in Croatia are hesitant to get vaccinated despite medical recommendations.

Stocks (and bonds) for the long run: Part 1

Klement on Investing • 4 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Bonds Risk Diversification
  1. The book 'Stocks for the Long Run' by Jeremy Siegel may present an overly positive view of equities as a fail-proof long-term investment. It's crucial to understand that investing in stocks comes with risks and uncertainties, even over longer periods.
  2. Historical data corrected by Professor McQuarrie reveals the importance of considering a wider range of factors like failures, defaults, and market conditions when evaluating equity investments' returns.
  3. While equities can be a rewarding long-term investment, they are not risk-free. International diversification is crucial to balance potential negative outcomes and ensure successful equity investing in the long run.

#36: Ready for the unexpected

The Uncertainty Mindset (soon to become tbd) • 39 implied HN points • 08 Jul 20
💼 Business Management Innovation Risk Strategy Entrepreneurship
  1. Thinking about the future as uncertain helps organizations adapt better to surprises. They can adjust their plans quickly when things change unexpectedly.
  2. A risk mindset focuses on specific expected outcomes and can lead to scrambling when things don't go as planned. This creates stress and confusion in uncertain situations.
  3. Being prepared for the unexpected allows organizations and people to continue functioning normally, even when faced with surprises. This kind of mindset is especially useful in today's unpredictable world.

#35: Patterning, herding, programming

The Uncertainty Mindset (soon to become tbd) • 39 implied HN points • 01 Jul 20
📖 Philosophy Uncertainty Risk Innovation Human behavior Collective action
  1. People struggle to see uncertainty because they rely on patterns from the past to predict the future. This can lead to a false sense of security when the future is actually unpredictable.
  2. We tend to follow the crowd and adopt the beliefs of those around us. If everyone thinks the future will be fine, we may ignore our own doubts.
  3. Our daily lives teach us to think about risk rather than true uncertainty. This makes it hard for us to prepare for unexpected changes, limiting our ability to innovate and adapt.

Why quality stocks perform so well

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
💰 Finance Stocks Investing Market Analysis Risk Behavioral Finance
  1. Companies with higher profitability, known as 'quality stocks,' tend to outperform less profitable companies in the market.
  2. Highly profitable companies do not necessarily come with higher risks, as they have lower probability of share price crashes and tend to perform better in negative market conditions.
  3. The outperformance of highly profitable companies seems to be driven by systematic market mispricing rather than compensation for higher risks, making it a potentially persistent investment strategy.

The Long Game 142: Focusing on Physical Performance, Teen Mental Health Epidemic, Risk & Regret, Consumer Products

The Long Game by Mehdi Yacoubi • 5 implied HN points • 13 Feb 23
🏥 Health & Wellness Mental health Risk Consumer Products
  1. Focusing on physical performance can lead to better overall health and well-being.
  2. There is a concerning rise in teen mental health issues, potentially linked to social media and technology.
  3. Considering risk and regret can help in making important life decisions and avoiding unnecessary stress.