Musings on Markets

Musings on Markets covers finance, investing, and business. It discusses financial education, company valuation, market trends, economic risks, and corporate governance. Posts analyze specific companies like Tesla, market phenomena like big tech's impact, and broader economic issues such as inflation and country risk.

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2023 Housing Forecasts

119 implied HN points • 08 Dec 22
  1. New home sales in 2022 expected around 640 thousand, down from 771 thousand in 2021.
  2. Total housing starts in 2022 estimated at 1.55 million, slightly lower than 2021's 1.60 million.
  3. Existing home sales in 2022 projected around 5.1 million.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025

19 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
💼 Business Real Estate Market Trends Housing Economics Investing
  1. New home listings increased slightly in December compared to the previous year, but they are still much lower than before the pandemic.
  2. Lower mortgage rates during the previous months had encouraged some homeowners to sell, but higher rates now are limiting new sellers this winter.
  3. December and January are usually the slowest months for new home listings, but the year-over-year increase shows some movement in the market.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in October and a Look Ahead to November Sales

23 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Trends Sales Data Mortgage Rates Inventory
  1. Existing home sales went up for the first time in over two years, but they are still low overall. Many people signed contracts when mortgage rates were at their lowest in two years.
  2. Florida and Texas are seeing a big increase in house listings, which is affecting prices in those areas. Hurricane Milton had an impact on statistics in Florida.
  3. Each local market has different trends, and some data is compared to figures from 2019 to show changes over time.
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Some More Good News for Homebuilders

86 implied HN points • 19 Jun 23
  1. This housing cycle is different from the past, showing a unique recovery pattern.
  2. New home sales are represented in a comparison graph from different periods.
  3. Potential underestimation of current new home sales due to decreasing cancellation rates.

NMHC: "Apartment Market Continues to Loosen"

81 implied HN points • 18 Jul 23
  1. The apartment market is weakening according to the NMHC report.
  2. There is a decline in transactions due to the rising cost of capital.
  3. Consider subscribing to CalculatedRisk Newsletter for more insights.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 3.96 million SAAR in October

23 implied HN points • 21 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Inventory Levels
  1. Existing-home sales rose to 3.96 million in October, marking a 3.4% increase from September and the first yearly rise since July 2021. This shows a positive trend in the housing market.
  2. Median home prices increased by 4.0% compared to last year, which suggests that despite more inventory, homes are still getting more expensive.
  3. Inventory of homes for sale is up 19.1% compared to last year, indicating more options for buyers, although the months of supply is higher than in pre-pandemic times.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in June

81 implied HN points • 14 Jul 23
  1. This post looks at local housing markets in June using data from about 40 markets in the US.
  2. Closed sales in June mostly reflect contracts signed in April and May.
  3. Readers can access the full post archives with a 7-day free trial subscription to the CalculatedRisk Newsletter.

Fannie and Freddie: Single-Family Mortgage Delinquency Rate Mostly Unchanged in September

66 implied HN points • 27 Oct 23
  1. Single-family mortgage delinquency rate for Fannie and Freddie remained mostly unchanged in September.
  2. US serious mortgage delinquency rate dropped to an all-time low in August, according to CoreLogic.
  3. Predictions suggest there won't be a large wave of single-family foreclosures due to solid lending standards and homeowner equity.

The "Home ATM" was Closed in Q1

86 implied HN points • 08 Jun 23
  1. During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity.
  2. This borrowing was often referred to as using the "Home ATM."
  3. Negative equity in homes contributed to the housing bust when prices declined.

Mortgage Rate Update

95 implied HN points • 06 Apr 23
💰 Finance Mortgage Rates
  1. The most prevalent 30-year fixed mortgage rate is now at 6.18% for top tier scenarios.
  2. There is usually a steady spread between the ten-year Treasury yield and 30-year mortgage rates.
  3. The spread between Treasury yields and mortgage rates has widened recently.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November

62 implied HN points • 13 Nov 23
  1. The Case-Shiller National Index showed a 1.0% year-over-year increase in August, with further positive trends expected in September.
  2. Multiple measures indicate increasing house prices, with some reaching all-time highs in September.
  3. The Case-Shiller index is down 3.1% from its peak in real terms, taking several years to return to previous highs.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.3% Below Peak

52 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
  1. Inflation adjusted house prices are currently 2.3% below the recent peak.
  2. Price-to-rent index is 7.0% below the recent peak.
  3. House prices are elevated based on different measures like affordability and real return.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 3.82 million SAAR in November

57 implied HN points • 20 Dec 23
  1. Existing-home sales increased to 3.82 million SAAR in November, breaking a five-month decline
  2. Housing inventory decreased seasonally in November to 1.13 million units
  3. Year-over-year sales declined by 7.3% compared to November 2022, marking the twenty-seventh consecutive month of decline

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in September

66 implied HN points • 11 Oct 23
  1. This post focuses on analyzing local housing markets in September.
  2. Closed sales in September primarily came from contracts signed in July and August.
  3. The author tracks around 40 local housing markets in the US, including states and metropolitan areas.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February

47 implied HN points • 12 Mar 24
💼 Business Real Estate Market Analysis
  1. Closed sales in February were influenced by past mortgage rates, showing a decrease from rates in the previous months.
  2. Active inventory in early reporting housing markets increased significantly in February, raising concerns about potential peaks.
  3. New listings in February were up year-over-year, but still at low levels compared to historical data.

"The deal of the Century ..."

186 implied HN points • 11 Nov 21
  1. The 'deal of the Century' comes along often in real estate.
  2. Don't always believe claims that a deal is the best ever.
  3. Consider the true value of opportunities before calling them 'deals of the century.'

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in October

62 implied HN points • 07 Nov 23
  1. Early reporting local markets in October showed some increase in sales compared to previous months.
  2. Closed sales were down year-over-year in October due to higher mortgage rates earlier in the year.
  3. Active inventory in certain markets saw significant changes, with some areas showing a drastic decrease in inventory from the previous year.

Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with house prices in 2025?

19 implied HN points • 26 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Housing Prices Supply and Demand
  1. House prices are expected to rise by about 3% to 4% in 2024. This prediction is based on the current trends in housing inventory and sales.
  2. The future of house prices in 2025 will largely depend on supply and demand in the market. A shortage or surplus of homes can greatly influence prices.
  3. There are significant differences in home supply across different regions, with areas like Florida and Texas seeing more inventory. This suggests that while national trends matter, local conditions can lead to very different outcomes.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in April

86 implied HN points • 10 May 23
  1. The post discusses an analysis of local housing markets in April.
  2. The data covers closed sales in April, reflecting contracts from previous months.
  3. Readers can access more details by subscribing to the CalculatedRisk newsletter for a 7-day trial.

New Home Sales increase to 714,000 Annual Rate in July

71 implied HN points • 23 Aug 23
  1. New Home Sales increased to 714,000 Annual Rate in July.
  2. Median New Home Price is Down 12% from the Peak.
  3. The Census Bureau reports that the previous three months were revised down for New Home Sales.

New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November

19 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic data Inventory Analysis
  1. New home sales went up to a rate of 664,000 in November, showing a good increase from October. This is also higher than the numbers from the same time last year.
  2. The supply of new homes available for sale decreased slightly, now sitting at 8.9 months. This is still higher than the usual range, which is about 4 to 6 months.
  3. The inventory of completed homes is up, with nearly 120,000 available, showing more options for buyers compared to the very low supply in early 2022.

Asking Rents Down 1.1% Year-over-year

57 implied HN points • 05 Dec 23
  1. Asking rents have declined by 1.1% year-over-year.
  2. Household formation has slowed sharply affecting rental market dynamics.
  3. Rental prices are on a downward trend, with negative year-over-year growth shown consistently.

4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November

19 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Sales Data Real Estate Market Analysis
  1. Home sales in California jumped by 19.5% compared to last year, signaling a strong recovery even though overall sales remain below pre-COVID levels.
  2. The number of active home listings grew significantly, with inventory up over 20% year-over-year, which may affect house prices in the coming months.
  3. New listings have also increased slightly, but are still at historically low levels, suggesting that supply remains tight in several markets.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in August

66 implied HN points • 15 Sep 23
  1. Tracking local housing markets in August to compare to national data
  2. Closed sales in August were influenced by mortgage rate trends
  3. Active inventory in August showed a slight year-over-year decline

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January; California Home Sales Up 5.9% YoY in January

47 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
💼 Business Housing Markets Real Estate Sales Inventory Mortgage Rates
  1. California home sales were up 5.9% year-over-year in January, marking the first year-over-year sales gain in 31 months.
  2. Active listings in California decreased year-over-year for the 10th month but new listings increased, suggesting some balance in the market.
  3. In January, closed sales in various markets were up 3.0%, showing improvement compared to the previous month, but they are down compared to January 2019 levels.