The hottest Economic data Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

Lawler: Some Observations on the February Existing Home Sales Release

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 258 implied HN points • 19 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Economic data
  1. The National Association of Realtors moved its monthly existing-home sales release earlier in the month, and that earlier timing has likely caused larger-than-normal revisions to their monthly sales estimates.
  2. Based on state and local realtor/MLS data, February’s annualized sales rate is likely to be revised down slightly to about 4.03 million, while the year-over-year median single-family home price for February will probably be revised up to around 1.0%.
  3. FOMC dot plots now show over half of participants see the long-run federal funds rate above 3%, a big shift since 2021, even though all participants still assume long-run inflation will be 2% despite current inflation being higher.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.09 million SAAR in February

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 258 implied HN points • 10 Mar 26
đź’Ľ Business Economic data
  1. Existing-home sales rose 1.7% month-over-month to a 4.09 million SAAR in February, but they remain 1.4% below last year’s level.
  2. Inventory increased to 1.29 million units and months-of-supply held at 3.8 months, which is slightly higher than pre-pandemic (Feb 2019) levels.
  3. Median existing-home price ticked up 0.3% year-over-year to $398,000, even though sales volumes have been very low for more than three years.

Housing Starts Increased to 1.487 million Annual Rate in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 186 implied HN points • 12 Mar 26
đź’Ľ Business Economic data
  1. Total housing starts rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.487 million in January, about 7.2% above December and roughly 9.5% higher than January 2025.
  2. The increase was driven by a big jump in multi-family starts (about +54% year‑over‑year), while single-family starts fell and were down around 6.5% year‑over‑year.
  3. Building permits declined (about 5.4% month‑to‑month and 5.8% year‑over‑year), and because multi-family starts are volatile the recent surge may moderate in coming months; housing units under construction remain slightly elevated.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Decreased in January; Up only 0.4% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 110 implied HN points • 27 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Economic data
  1. National house-price growth is stalling: Freddie Mac's index fell 0.13% month-over-month and is up just 0.4% year-over-year, the lowest point in this cycle and essentially flat over the past nine months, so prices could turn negative year-over-year in 2026.
  2. Many places are still below prior peaks: 36 states plus D.C. and most metropolitan areas remain under their previous highs, with the biggest declines concentrated in Florida and California—Punta Gorda is roughly 22% below its recent peak and Austin about 18% down.
  3. Signals point to further cooling but with regional differences: Freddie Mac and NAR readings suggest Case-Shiller will show smaller year-over-year gains, and rising inventory alongside record-low sales has slowed national price growth, though outcomes will vary by market.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

December 2025 Residential Construction

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 189 implied HN points • 20 Feb 26
đź’Ľ Business Economic data
  1. Recent Census estimates show residential construction is recovering very slowly, characterized as a "slow, boring" recovery. The recovery is modest rather than a strong rebound.
  2. A persistent housing supply shortage is the dominant factor for near-term construction trends and matters more than mortgage rates. That shortage largely determines how much new building occurs even as interest rates move.
  3. Understanding the current situation requires a long view of about thirty years of housing activity; the analysis connects past policies and market shifts to today’s supply constraints. The narrative explains how historical trends helped create the present housing dynamics.

Asking Rents Decline Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 248 implied HN points • 03 Feb 26
đź’Ľ Business Economic data
  1. Asking rents nationwide have fallen year‑over‑year across several major indexes, continuing a multi‑month streak and pulling rents down from their 2022 peak.
  2. A surge in multifamily supply plus weaker demand — including slower household formation and changes in immigration — has raised vacancies and kept rent growth under pressure.
  3. The trend is uneven: single‑family rents and a few metros still show modest gains, while many large markets are seeing weaker growth or outright declines.

Final Look at Housing Markets in December and a Look Ahead to January Sales

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 224 implied HN points • 02 Feb 26
đź’Ľ Business Economic data
  1. Existing-home sales are very weak: 2025 posted the lowest annual sales since 1995, with a SAAR near 4.35 million and about 19% below pre‑pandemic levels.
  2. Inventory is rising and months‑of‑supply are above pre‑pandemic norms, and that higher supply—despite only a small median price gain—increases the risk of national price declines in 2026.
  3. Falling mortgage rates in late 2025 make a slight uptick in January sales likely, but new listings remain below 2019 levels so inventory improvements may be uneven across markets.

A Horrendous Job Report Looks Even Worse Under the Surface

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 22 implied HN points • 09 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Economic data
  1. The latest jobs numbers show a sharp weakening: payrolls fell by 92k while the household survey lost 185k jobs, with the household measure down over 1 million year‑to‑date through two months.
  2. BLS birth/death assumptions and large downward revisions mask the true weakness — the agency assumed about 90k new jobs in February while revisions have cut roughly 76.5k jobs per month over the past year.
  3. Underlying indicators confirm fragility: full‑time jobs have declined recently, most sectors are negative over the last 12 months, and labor force participation has slipped to around 62%.

Top Links 959 Dodgy numbers. Black unemployment. Varoufakis fake. Embracing decline.

Chartbook • 400 implied HN points • 22 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Economic data
  1. America’s official inflation numbers look dodgy and probably understate actual price pressures, so they need closer scrutiny.
  2. High Black unemployment is highlighted as a major ongoing economic and social problem that demands attention.
  3. There are claims that figures like Varoufakis are inauthentic, and a broader theme warns that some people or institutions are calmly embracing economic decline rather than resisting it.

Still Not Out Of The Woods

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 25 implied HN points • 27 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Economic data
  1. Wholesale inflation accelerated in January — core PPI jumped 0.8% for the month and is running around 3.6% year-over-year, well above the Fed’s 2% goal.
  2. The hotter PPI contrasts with a softer CPI, and that tension matters because rising producer prices can filter through to consumer prices over time.
  3. It’s premature to declare victory over inflation — the PPI data suggest inflation risks remain and policymakers should stay cautious.

News of the Week (January 15-19)

Stock Market Nerd • 1552 implied HN points • 20 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Economic data
  1. Taiwan Semiconductor beat revenue estimates and provided positive guidance for future growth.
  2. The Trade Desk experienced a decline in multiples but is focusing on profitability and growth.
  3. Uber is shutting down Drizzly and streamlining its alcohol delivery within UberEats.

Market Misreads Services Inflation And the BOJ

Japan Economy Watch • 1018 implied HN points • 04 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Economic data
  1. Market players and forecasters may be misreading the intentions of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) about inflation and wage data.
  2. The BOJ's ambiguous messages and contradictory statements are causing confusion in the market.
  3. Evaluating services inflation and wage hikes requires careful consideration of data and not jumping to conclusions.

"Economy Is In Recession": Only 181k Jobs Gained For All Of 2025

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 20 implied HN points • 18 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Economic data
  1. Headline payrolls showed only 181,000 net jobs added in 2025 — about 15,000 per month — which is very weak and consistent with recessionary conditions.
  2. Large downward revisions removed roughly 1.2 million jobs from prior estimates, with monthly revisions averaging around 105k, making the recent labor picture much worse than initially reported.
  3. The year’s reported positive job growth depends largely on the BLS birth/death assumption (+1.15M), while actual measured job counts were negative, so most gains reflect model assumptions about new business formation rather than recorded hires.

Xi proposes a "Global Civilization Initiative"; PBoC; Missing bond data; Guo Wengui

Sinocism • 1022 implied HN points • 15 Mar 23
🌍 World Politics Economic data
  1. Xi proposes the Global Civilization Initiative focused on respecting diversity, advocating common values, valuing civilization inheritance and innovation, and strengthening international cultural exchange.
  2. The US Summit for Democracy is sparking controversy with accusations of destabilizing the world through democracy promotion efforts.
  3. Economic data for January-February is showing a moderate Covid exit rebound, not as strong as anticipated.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2026

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 21 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Economic data
  1. Inventory has risen sharply back toward pre‑pandemic levels while existing‑home sales fell to the lowest since 1995, and that combination is putting downward pressure on prices.
  2. National house‑price indexes show only small year‑over‑year gains (around 1–2%), and the trend is slowing with reported data lagging recent market moves.
  3. Lower mortgage rates have increased purchase mortgage applications but haven’t yet boosted sales significantly, and a large wave of distressed sales is unlikely because most homeowners have strong equity and low rates.

"Soft Landing"? More Like "No Landing"

The Overshoot • 471 implied HN points • 18 Feb 23
đź’° Finance Economic data
  1. The U.S. economy is showing strong growth despite persistent inflation and may accelerate further.
  2. Inflation is returning for manufactured goods, potentially putting upward pressure on prices.
  3. Interest rates may need to rise more than expected, leading to a disconnect with recent declines in real yields.

Every Jobs Report In 2025 Has Been Revised Lower

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 16 implied HN points • 10 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Economic data
  1. Every month of 2025 has been revised lower, often sharply, which undermines confidence in the official payroll numbers.
  2. Much of the reported job growth relies on the BLS birth/death adjustment rather than actual payroll gains, so headline positives look artificial once the baseline is considered.
  3. The household survey and broader indicators show mixed signals and structural weakness—lower labor force participation, sector softness, and shifts between full‑time and part‑time work—implying the economy is weaker than the headline jobs figures suggest.

Daily Chartbook #167

Daily Chartbook • 1493 implied HN points • 24 Mar 23
đź’° Finance Economic data
  1. New home sales showed an increase for the third month in a row
  2. Truckload market is facing potential challenges with freight volumes
  3. US economic activity was below trend in February according to the Chicago Fed

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.35 million SAAR in December; Lowest Annual Sales since 1995

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 4 implied HN points • 14 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Economic data
  1. Existing-home sales rose in December to a 4.35 million SAAR, up 5.1% from November and about 1.4% from a year earlier. Despite the monthly gain, annual sales remain at their lowest level since 1995.
  2. Housing inventory fell sharply in December to 1.18 million units and months-of-supply dropped to 3.3 months, reflecting seasonal lows. Yet inventory was up 3.5% year‑over‑year and, on a months‑of‑supply basis, is higher than before the pandemic because sales have fallen even more.
  3. Median existing-home prices increased only modestly, rising 0.4% year‑over‑year to $405,400, indicating slight price growth.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 4 implied HN points • 09 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Economic data
  1. Total housing starts fell to a 1.246 million annual rate in October, down about 4.6% from September and 7.8% from a year earlier, and were well below expectations.
  2. Single-family starts rose month-to-month to about 874,000 but remain down roughly 7–7.8% year-over-year and 7.0% year-to-date, while multi-family starts fell in October and year-over-year yet are up about 18% year-to-date, showing a split between housing segments.
  3. Building permits were essentially flat at about a 1.412 million annual rate, slipping slightly month-to-month and year-over-year, and housing units under construction remain elevated, keeping a sizable pipeline of supply.

Housing Starts Increased to 1.321 million Annual Rate in June

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 18 Jul 25
đź’° Finance Economic data
  1. In June, housing starts were at an annual rate of 1.321 million, which is a slight increase from May. This suggests a growing construction activity but remains lower compared to June 2024.
  2. Single-family housing starts dropped 4.6% from May, while multi-family housing saw a significant year-over-year increase. This indicates a shift in the types of units being built.
  3. Overall, total housing starts are down 0.5% compared to last year, reflecting broader trends in the housing market, especially with single-family units declining while multi-family units grow.

Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 52 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
đź’Ľ Business Economic data
  1. The apartment vacancy rate rose to 6.1% in Q4 2024, which is the highest since 2011. This increase shows that more people are leaving their apartments.
  2. The office vacancy rate set a new record at 20.4% in Q4 2024. This suggests many businesses are not needing as much office space due to changes in work habits.
  3. Even with rising vacancies, rents for apartments are still high, showing a mixed rental market. People are still wanting places to live, but it’s taking longer to fill those spaces.