The hottest Economic data Substack posts right now

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Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 4.0% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 31 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic data Housing Prices Investment Analysis
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index went up by 4.0% in December compared to last year. This shows that home prices are rising again after a period of decline.
  2. Most of the cities with the biggest price drops are in Florida, with Austin being the worst performer overall. This indicates that some areas are struggling much more than others.
  3. As more homes become available for sale in 2025, the growth in house prices might slow down. So even though prices are rising now, that might change in the near future.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Home Sales Economic data Forecasting
  1. Existing home sales stayed steady at an annual rate of 4.15 million in December, the same as November. This shows slight improvement compared to the previous year.
  2. The average price of existing single-family homes increased by about 5.6% compared to last year. This indicates that home values are generally rising.
  3. The upcoming report from the National Association of Realtors is expected to show even higher sales this month. If confirmed, it would be a third month of increasing year-over-year sales.

Easing Into Expansion

The Last Bear Standing • 24 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Economic data Market Trends
  1. Inflation is complex and influenced by many factors, making it hard to pinpoint why prices change. It often feels like a guessing game without clear answers.
  2. The market reacts strongly to data on inflation, analyzing numbers intensely, but sometimes it loses sight of the bigger picture, like underlying economic trends.
  3. Current monetary policies have shifted, and while they initially helped reduce inflation, signs suggest that prices may be climbing again as the economy changes.

Market Misreads Services Inflation And the BOJ

Japan Economy Watch • 1018 implied HN points • 04 Jan 24
💰 Finance Market Analysis Inflation Central Banks Economic data Monetary Policy
  1. Market players and forecasters may be misreading the intentions of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) about inflation and wage data.
  2. The BOJ's ambiguous messages and contradictory statements are causing confusion in the market.
  3. Evaluating services inflation and wage hikes requires careful consideration of data and not jumping to conclusions.
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Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 52 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
💼 Business Real Estate Market Trends Economic data
  1. The apartment vacancy rate rose to 6.1% in Q4 2024, which is the highest since 2011. This increase shows that more people are leaving their apartments.
  2. The office vacancy rate set a new record at 20.4% in Q4 2024. This suggests many businesses are not needing as much office space due to changes in work habits.
  3. Even with rising vacancies, rents for apartments are still high, showing a mixed rental market. People are still wanting places to live, but it’s taking longer to fill those spaces.

Xi proposes a "Global Civilization Initiative"; PBoC; Missing bond data; Guo Wengui

Sinocism • 1022 implied HN points • 15 Mar 23
🌍 World Politics Economic data Foreign Relations Global Cooperation
  1. Xi proposes the Global Civilization Initiative focused on respecting diversity, advocating common values, valuing civilization inheritance and innovation, and strengthening international cultural exchange.
  2. The US Summit for Democracy is sparking controversy with accusations of destabilizing the world through democracy promotion efforts.
  3. Economic data for January-February is showing a moderate Covid exit rebound, not as strong as anticipated.

2025 Macro Outlook

The Last Bear Standing • 36 implied HN points • 20 Dec 24
💰 Finance Market Trends Monetary Policy Economic data Investment strategy Labor Market
  1. The Fed is in a new phase of monetary policy, raising questions about whether easing measures are just beginning or already finished. This uncertainty affects markets and investor confidence.
  2. The labor market is showing mixed signals, with job growth continuing but other indicators suggesting a slowdown. This could complicate future monetary policy decisions.
  3. Inflation progress has stalled, and how labor data evolves in 2025 will greatly influence inflation and monetary policy going forward.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 4.0% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Market Trends Economic data Price analysis
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index increased by 4.0% in November compared to last year. This shows that home prices are rising nationally.
  2. In Florida, many cities are facing significant price declines. Out of the 30 cities with the largest drops, 15 are located in Florida.
  3. This data is based on home sales that Freddie Mac has financed and includes regular appraisals. It helps track housing market trends accurately.

New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic data Inventory Analysis
  1. New home sales went up to a rate of 664,000 in November, showing a good increase from October. This is also higher than the numbers from the same time last year.
  2. The supply of new homes available for sale decreased slightly, now sitting at 8.9 months. This is still higher than the usual range, which is about 4 to 6 months.
  3. The inventory of completed homes is up, with nearly 120,000 available, showing more options for buyers compared to the very low supply in early 2022.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 05 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Economic data Market Analysis
  1. Asking rents have mostly stayed the same when compared to last year, with a slight overall decrease of about 0.6%. This means rental prices are not rising much.
  2. The rental market is seeing more available apartments due to a lot of new construction, which keeps prices low. The vacancy rate is the highest it's been since the pandemic began.
  3. Single-family home rents have increased by about 2% year-over-year but are still below pre-pandemic growth levels. Many areas are seeing slower rent growth, which is good news for renters.

Investing Update: Year-End Rally Underway?

Spilled Coffee • 16 implied HN points • 09 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic data Stock Analysis
  1. The stock market saw significant growth after the recent elections, with major indices like the Dow and S&P 500 hitting all-time highs. This growth was boosted by the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates.
  2. We are currently in a 'baby bull' market phase, and historically, November to January are the strongest months for stocks. This might indicate a potential year-end rally ahead.
  3. Political factors have less control over the stock market than many believe. Over the long run, markets tend to perform well regardless of which party is in power.

Clouded Judgement 1.16.25 - December Inflation

Clouded Judgement • 4 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Economic data Investment Strategies Valuation Metrics Stock Analysis
  1. The stock market's current mood is cautious, as investors are eagerly waiting for important data about the economy. Strong data might mean higher interest rates could stay longer than expected.
  2. Recent inflation figures came in lower than expected, causing a positive reaction in the stock market, particularly with a significant rise in the Nasdaq index.
  3. SaaS companies are often valued based on their expected revenue growth. Despite some not being profitable now, their future growth potential can make them appealing to investors.

Impactful information is not always insider and insider Information is not always impactful!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 24 Mar 14
💰 Finance Investing Trading Market Regulation Economic data
  1. Not all important information comes from insiders, and not all insider information is significant. Understanding the difference is key for investors.
  2. Insider trading laws have evolved over time and they focus more on the information itself rather than just on the individuals trading it. This shift can impact how people trade stocks.
  3. It's important for markets to stay fair and transparent. If some investors feel they're at a disadvantage, they might stop participating, which can hurt the market overall.