The hottest Behavioral Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Luck versus skill: How can you tell?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 12 Mar 11
💰 Finance Investment Risk management Behavioral Finance Market Analysis Portfolio Management
  1. It can be hard to tell if someone in finance is successful because of luck or skill. This confusion makes it tricky to reward them appropriately.
  2. In sports, it's easier to see skill because success is clear and happens often, while in finance, success is more subjective and can happen by chance.
  3. To find skilled investors or managers, look for those who are consistent in their success, transparent about their strategies, and humble enough to acknowledge the role of luck.

Herding behavior: Why, so what and what if?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 15 Jan 11
💰 Finance Investment Strategies Market Trends Behavioral Finance Risk management Corporate Finance Investment Strategies Market behavior Hedge Funds Risk management Corporate Finance
  1. Herding behavior is when people follow the crowd, which we see in many areas of life, including finance. This can lead to investors buying or selling the same stocks at the same time.
  2. This behavior can cause problems like pricing bubbles and make markets more volatile. When many people act in the same way, it can lead to big changes in stock prices.
  3. Investors can make money by either joining the herd during trends or by going against it if they have a strong understanding and confidence in their choices. But it takes skill to do it successfully.

The secret to investment success: Self Awareness?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 11 Nov 10
💰 Finance Investing Psychology Market Analysis Investment Strategies Personal Finance Investment Strategies Behavioral Finance Market Analysis Risk management Personal Finance
  1. Investment success isn't just about strategy; it's about knowing yourself. How patient are you? Do you handle stress well? These traits matter.
  2. Different investment philosophies work for different people. What might be a good strategy for one person could be a bad fit for someone else.
  3. Self-awareness can help you choose the right investment approach. Think about your personality and how you react to different situations before investing.

Jerome Kerviel is sentenced: Ruminations on risk and trading scandals

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 07 Oct 10
💰 Finance Trading Risk management Behavioral Finance Banking Economics Risk management Trading Behavioral Finance Banking Regulation
  1. Younger and single people tend to take more risks than older or married individuals. This is especially true in trading where many traders fit this profile.
  2. Traders often take bigger risks when using money that isn't their own, like 'house money'. This can lead to careless decisions.
  3. When traders start losing money, they often try to recover it by making bigger bets, which can lead to even worse losses. It's important to monitor and control losses early on.

Transactions Costs and Beating the Market

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 15 Feb 10
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Portfolio Management Behavioral Finance Transaction Costs Investing Market Analysis Behavioral Finance Portfolio Management Trading Strategies
  1. There are many ways to beat the market that sound good on paper, but very few fund managers actually succeed in doing it consistently in real life.
  2. One major reason for this failure is the impact of transaction costs, which include fees from buying and selling stocks and the difference between buying and selling prices.
  3. While the market has inefficiencies, it's difficult for investors to profit from them in practice, making real investment success much harder than it seems.
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Macro Bets: A general framework..

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 23 Nov 09
💰 Finance Investment Market Trends Risk management Economic Analysis Behavioral Finance Investing Market Analysis Risk management Behavioral Finance
  1. Making macro bets can be risky. You need a unique advantage, like having more patience or better trading skills than other investors.
  2. It's better to keep your macro bets simple. If you believe in something like rising gold prices, it makes more sense to directly buy gold instead of a related company that has other risks.
  3. The main danger with macro bets is being wrong about your prediction or the market not agreeing with you. With so many investors out there, standing out is tough.

Crisis Lessons: Presentation...

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 10 Oct 09
💰 Finance Market Analysis Risk management Behavioral Finance Investment strategy Economic Trends
  1. Personal lessons from a crisis may vary for each individual and shouldn't be forced on others.
  2. Relying too much on historical data can be risky; understanding that things may not always revert to previous averages is important.
  3. A better grasp of risk and its unpredictability helps improve decision-making in finance and investing.

Behavioral finance and corporate finance

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 12 Jul 09
💰 Finance Corporate Finance Behavioral Finance Investment strategy Market Analysis Behavioral Finance Corporate Finance Investment Theory Market behavior
  1. Behavioral finance studies how people's behavior affects financial decisions. It shows that both investors and managers can be overconfident, leading to poor decision-making.
  2. Even though traditional finance often ignores human behavior, combining insights from behavioral finance can improve corporate decision-making. It's important to understand why managers may deviate from financial principles.
  3. Recent developments in behavioral finance focus on improving systems and processes instead of just highlighting mistakes. This shift may help managers make better choices and minimize costs for shareholders.

The Crisis of 2008: Lessons learned, unlearned and reinforced

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 31 Dec 08
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Risk management Economic Trends Behavioral Finance
  1. Interest rates can be negative, which is surprising. It shows how unexpected financial situations can be.
  2. Investing in established companies isn't always safe, and relying on certain rules can lead to mistakes. The financial landscape can change quickly.
  3. Cash can be an important safety net, and understanding risk is more complex than just looking at numbers. Real-world connections matter too.

Hard wired to deceive?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 23 Dec 08
💰 Finance Investing Fraud Psychology Behavioral Finance Ethics Investment Fraud Behavioral Economics Psychology Risk management
  1. Larger brains in primates, including humans, are linked to higher chances of deceit. So, you might be more at risk of being misled by smart investors.
  2. We tend to lie often and it's a normal habit. This means that investment pitches can be filled with half-truths.
  3. People feel guilty about lying but that doesn't stop them from doing it again. Getting away with a lie encourages more lying.

Some thoughts on Las Vegas!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 12 Nov 08
💰 Finance Investments Risk management Market Analysis Behavioral Finance
  1. Casinos are a clear example of probability at work, where the odds are stacked in favor of the house. This means over time, the casino will profit from players.
  2. Gambling in a casino isn’t really a rational investment since players often face negative expected returns. It tends to attract those looking for entertainment, not wise financial choices.
  3. Even the most secure systems can have weaknesses, as shown by card counting in poker. However, generally speaking, the longer you play, the more likely you are to lose.

Black, blue and white swans: Comments on Taleb

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 13 Oct 08
💰 Finance Risk management Investment strategy Market Theory Behavioral Finance Economic Models
  1. It's important to realize that real-life data often doesn’t follow normal patterns and can have unexpected jumps and surprises.
  2. While it's essential to be aware of unpredictable events (black swans), we shouldn't stop planning or forecasting our future.
  3. We should use our best judgment to value assets, keeping in mind that shocks can occur, and we need to account for these risks.

Diversification: Why is it not working?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 08 Oct 08
💰 Finance Investing Markets Risk management Portfolio Management Behavioral Finance
  1. Diversification is important for investors, but its benefits have decreased recently. Investors now see more risks across different markets than before.
  2. The connection between different stock markets has increased, meaning that a crisis in one area can affect many others. This makes diversification less effective.
  3. Real estate risks have become more linked to the stock market because of how properties are now invested in. So spreading money across asset classes offers less protection than it used to.

Explaining the Market....

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 05 Oct 08
💰 Finance Market Analysis Investment Strategies Economic Trends Behavioral Finance Financial Reporting
  1. Market moves can be unpredictable and often relate to expectations rather than absolute news. For instance, a good earnings report can be seen as bad if it doesn't meet high expectations.
  2. Many factors can influence the market on a given day, making it tough to identify the exact cause of movements. It could be anything from economic data to global events.
  3. Experts providing explanations after market shifts helps us feel more in control, even if the reasons are not always clear. These insights can give us perspective and help us move forward.

Are you a contrarian?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 22 Sep 08
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Behavioral Finance Risk management
  1. Being a contrarian investor means going against what everyone else is doing, especially in tough times. It’s easier to say you’re a contrarian than to actually act like one when the market is falling.
  2. Deciding to invest when the market is down takes a cool head and confidence. Most people usually panic or hesitate instead of taking action.
  3. You can't force yourself to be a certain type of investor if it doesn’t suit your personality. Some people are not built to stay calm and think long term during market chaos.