The hottest Capital allocation Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Flow State #5 - What kind of future are we headed towards?

Superfluid • 53 implied HN points • 17 Feb 26
đź’Ľ Business Capital allocation
  1. We're living in a split reality where many people chase futuristic endgames while others cling to the past, and both trends make teams overpromise outcomes instead of handling the messy middle of execution.
  2. The U.S. risks a 'Japanification' pattern of stagnant growth: more convenience services, rising social isolation, and increased worker pressure as automation and AI push speed and productivity.
  3. AI market shocks show that vertical AI only survives if it can handle the last-mile complexity—real-world liability, regulation, and exceptions—and companies must either uplevel leaders or replace them to meet those hard operational demands.

The three businesses of hyperscalers

Metacritic Capital • 13 implied HN points • 23 Feb 26
đź’Ľ Business Capital allocation
  1. Hyperscalers are three different businesses at once: Traditional IaaS (sticky, high‑margin cloud services), Token Factories (LLM inference APIs sold by token consumption), and AI mega‑deals (capex‑heavy long‑term GPU/data‑center contracts with labs).
  2. Token Factory work is commoditizing and price‑sensitive: customers can swap models or providers quickly, so serving costs and model access drive competitiveness more than platform lock‑in.
  3. AI mega‑deals change growth quality and valuation: hosting labs can boost revenue but often yields lower, fixed IRRs, so investors must model revenue, capex, and margins separately for each business and run a DCF.

Serial Acquirers, The Art of Not Selling, and Chuck Akre's Masterclass

Investment Talk • 569 implied HN points • 25 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Capital allocation
  1. The post discusses the experience of heading to the USA for the first time and shares insights on a small cap company in the UK.
  2. An in-depth study on serial acquirers highlights the importance of CEOs with strong capital allocation skills.
  3. The paper 'The Art of Not Selling' by Chris Cerrone emphasizes the importance of patient and strategic investing decisions over succumbing to external pressures.
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[2025–2026] Week 10: Warren Buffett: Berkshire Hathaway Years

Behavioral Value Investor • 37 implied HN points • 12 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Capital allocation
  1. He started as a Graham-style deep-value investor but often acted like an activist, pushing management or catalysts to realize hidden value.
  2. Over time he moved toward buying high-quality businesses and whole companies, placing more weight on management, qualitative insights, and long-term compounding than on pure quantitative bargains.
  3. Comparing his partnership years to his Berkshire years highlights practical questions to answer: what to copy or avoid, which investments were best or worst, and how his approach would adapt to different capital sizes and situations.

Oxford Nanopore @ JPM

ASeq Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 13 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Capital allocation
  1. Oxford Nanopore presented at the JPM conference following the release of preliminary results.
  2. Management reiterated their commitment to deliver break-even by 2027.
  3. They didn’t report full losses; cash reserves appear consistently down and cash reverses could mean reported losses are smaller than earlier expectations.

OXY's Outsider CEO, Vicki Hollub & Warren Buffett's Next AAPL (Divd Yield - ST: 6%, LT: 11.0%)

Value Investing Substack • 137 implied HN points • 17 Apr 23
đź’Ľ Business Capital allocation
  1. Warren Buffett has been acquiring Occidental Petroleum shares and the company is focused on returning shareholder capital.
  2. Occidental Petroleum is committed to limiting production growth and allocating capital towards shareholder return.
  3. Crude oil prices are expected to be volatile, and Occidental Petroleum has a high dividend yield compared to other E&P competitors.

What Company Earnings Calls Should Be About (But Are Not)

Behavioral Value Investor • 193 implied HN points • 08 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Capital allocation
  1. Over 50% of an earnings call focuses on short-term demand trends, which is not helpful for long-term investors.
  2. Earnings calls should address long-term value, competitive environment changes, and management's strategies for improving competitive advantage.
  3. Investors and CEOs should prioritize questions that affect the business's value in the long term, rather than short-term fluctuations.

Secret Diary of a Hedge Fund Allocator

Net Interest • 13 implied HN points • 13 Jun 25
đź’° Finance Capital allocation
  1. Hedge funds offer a way for individual investors to access top managers and diversify their investments, but they often come with extra fees that can eat into returns.
  2. The Brevan Howard fund stands out for its ability to manage risk and provide steady returns, even in tough market conditions, making it a reliable choice for investors.
  3. Investing in hedge funds can be a rollercoaster ride with ups and downs, so it's important to learn from both your successes and failures when picking managers.

The End of Private Equity's Golden Age

European Straits • 12 implied HN points • 11 Jun 25
đź’° Finance Capital allocation
  1. Private equity is facing a big change as key investors, like Yale and Harvard, are selling off their holdings. This shift raises questions about whether private equity is just going through another cycle or if there are deeper issues at play.
  2. Today, private equity is struggling to exit investments, meaning firms can't show returns, which makes it hard to attract new money. This cycle of problems is creating a 'velocity crisis' that could hurt the industry overall.
  3. The problems in private equity suggest that the strategies that worked for decades might not be effective anymore. Firms may need to rethink their models or focus on fewer, stronger investments to survive.

Data Update 4 for 2021: The Hurdle Rate Question!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 10 Feb 21
đź’° Finance Capital allocation
  1. A hurdle rate is the minimum return a business wants from an investment based on its risk. If it's set too high, the company might miss good opportunities.
  2. There are different ways to calculate a hurdle rate, like looking at the cost of raising funds or considering the risk of the specific project. Using the right method helps better match the risk and reward.
  3. Hurdle rates can change based on business type, geography, and currency. It's important to understand these factors to make smart investment decisions.