The hottest Climate Science Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Climate & Environment Topics

Now comes the heat

The Crucial Years • 7892 implied HN points • 13 Mar 26
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. A strong "super" El Niño looks likely and, combined with already record-warm oceans and a powerful heat dome, will drive unprecedented heat, worsening droughts, fires, and chaotic weather over the next year.
  2. Weather and water systems are more vulnerable than ever. Forecasting capabilities have been degraded by data cuts just as snowpacks and reservoirs hit record lows, raising the risk of surprise disasters and real shortages.
  3. Energy politics are amplifying the crisis—war and fossil-fuel leverage are driving up prices while utilities and some politicians push back against rooftop solar and climate laws, even as cheap, flexible solar technologies offer a fast path to cleaner, decentralized power.

An El Niño is brewing

The Crucial Years • 6427 implied HN points • 16 Feb 26
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. An El Niño looks likely to form and will push global temperatures to new records because it adds on top of the planet’s steady warming. Scientists warn this surge could raise the world to around 1.7°C above pre‑industrial levels this cycle and hasten hitting 2°C within the next decade or two.
  2. The extra heat will mean more extreme weather—stronger storms, heavier rains and floods, deeper droughts, and bigger wildfires—that will harm people, infrastructure, and ecosystems. That visible jump in warming will also shift politics and public opinion, and could lead to serious debates about risky options like solar geoengineering.
  3. The clean energy transition is gathering pace with expanding renewables, EV adoption, microgrids, and industrial moves to low‑carbon power, showing economic as well as climate benefits. Still, political choices that favor fossil fuels can block or slow this progress, so policy decisions remain crucial.

Are the Strongest Nor'easters Getting Stronger? A Closer Look

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 1609 implied HN points • 24 Feb 26
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. A recent study's headline that the strongest nor'easters are getting stronger rests on fragile statistical signals that largely disappear or weaken when the analysis is limited to the satellite era or when different start dates are used.
  2. The ERA5 reanalysis has uneven observational coverage and known negative biases for extreme storm winds, so improvements in data over time can create spurious trends unless those artifacts are explicitly accounted for.
  3. Detecting and attributing real long-term changes in storm intensity requires multiple independent datasets, methods, and model-based evidence, and current assessments give low confidence that such trends are detectable, so strong public claims were premature.

Bad Science, Big Consequences

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 3798 implied HN points • 02 Feb 26
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. A high-profile economic review became hugely influential and helped shape global climate policy and the later rise of “climate risk” in finance.
  2. Its projections of rapidly escalating disaster losses relied on unsupported numbers and misrepresented sources, producing large forecast errors compared with actual losses.
  3. A peer-reviewed critique documented these mistakes but was largely ignored, showing that high-profile scientific errors can persist and continue to affect policy and finance.

The Weather Truther Playbook

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 3660 implied HN points • 27 Dec 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. A vocal movement treats every extreme weather event as obvious proof of climate change and uses those events to push urgent policy action.
  2. Their playbook is PANIC → ALARM → CURE: build advocacy narratives, constantly attribute harms to climate in the media, then present CO2 cuts as the clear remedy.
  3. That approach risks undermining mainstream climate science and public trust, creating obstacles to effective long-term climate policy and prompting calls for stronger scientific integrity.
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Buried by Snow—and by Shaky Science

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 445 implied HN points • 25 Feb 26
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. Recent winters have felt more extreme, but scientists currently don’t have strong evidence that the most intense nor’easters are getting steadily stronger over the long term.
  2. The IPCC plays a key role by sorting through hundreds of different and sometimes conflicting studies to give cautious, evidence-based conclusions instead of relying on any single paper.
  3. Science advances by testing claims, being honest about uncertainty, and changing course when new evidence shows earlier conclusions were wrong.

Top Five Climate Science Scandals 2025

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 2846 implied HN points • 29 Dec 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. Bad or fake datasets and low-quality models have been used in climate research and major assessments. Those errors need prompt correction and retraction to restore scientific trust.
  2. Major climate assessments and agencies are highly politicized and swing with each administration, which undermines credibility. Depoliticizing these institutions would help rebuild public trust.
  3. Financial “climate risk” products and the continued reliance on extreme, implausible emissions scenarios are distorting research and policy. Climate science should use more realistic scenarios and clearer links between risks and evidence.

The new standard of scientific evidence: “Many Scientists Believe”

Heterodox STEM • 348 implied HN points • 22 Feb 26
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. Using 'many scientists believe' as proof is not the same as presenting hard evidence, and for issues like whether the polar jet stream is weakening the clear observational data is limited or inconclusive.
  2. Much climate reasoning depends on open-loop computer models that aren't validated the way engineering models are. Funding and media incentives can push scientists to emphasize more alarming model results.
  3. Political and funding pressures can distort scientific priorities and public messaging, so consensus and authority shouldn't replace testable evidence. Real scientific progress often overturns majority views, so skepticism and empirical testing must stay central.

A Huge Retraction, the Usual Playbook, and Reason for Optimism

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 2973 implied HN points • 03 Dec 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. A major climate‑economics paper was retracted for substantial errors after more than a year, even though it had become highly influential in media and policy.
  2. Many powerful institutions and some outlets initially downplayed or continued to rely on the flawed results, highlighting how entrenched science can shape real‑world financial and policy decisions.
  3. There are hopeful signs of correction: critics and better journalism brought problems to light, and some experts argue research should focus more on targeted, practical questions instead of sweeping long‑range macro projections.

US Hurricanes 2025 in Review

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 2532 implied HN points • 01 Dec 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. In 2025 the continental United States had no hurricane landfalls, even as the Atlantic produced unusually powerful storms and multiple Category 5 hurricanes that caused heavy losses in the Caribbean.
  2. Long-term records show no upward trend in U.S. hurricane landfalls or major hurricane landfalls, and global ACE and ACE-per-hurricane also show no clear trend, which challenges simple claims that warming has already produced fewer but more intense storms.
  3. A peer-reviewed review from 2005 concluded that strong links between global warming and hurricane impacts were premature, and later-revealed efforts by some assessment authors tried to exclude that work from major reports, though the review has remained in the literature and widely cited.

A Red Team Climate Report

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 7988 implied HN points • 30 Jul 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. A new climate report from the U.S. Department of Energy encourages open debate about climate science. It challenges some widely accepted views and aims to include differing opinions.
  2. The report's author believes climate change is real but not the biggest threat humanity faces. Instead, they argue that global energy poverty is a more pressing issue.
  3. The DOE is inviting public comments on the report for a more transparent discussion. They want to learn from feedback instead of just defending their conclusions.

The Paris Delusion

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 2070 implied HN points • 22 Nov 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. Saying the Paris Agreement alone caused a big drop in projected warming is misleading; the apparent improvement mostly reflects earlier scenarios that over‑predicted coal use and were therefore wrong, not clear policy-driven emissions cuts.
  2. Actual data show no acceleration in global decarbonization since Paris: emissions per unit of GDP have fallen at about 2% per year, far below the roughly 8% per year sustained cuts needed for deep decarbonization and never achieved by any country.
  3. We need honest, evidence‑based policymaking — stronger and effective measures to speed real decarbonization are required, while also protecting energy access, supply reliability, and affordability, instead of celebrating questionable success stories.

The Cost of Confused Climate Science

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1636 implied HN points • 03 Dec 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. A high-profile scientific study that claimed catastrophic climate impacts and massive economic losses has been retracted.
  2. Motivated reasoning and confirmation bias lead people to accept alarming climate claims quickly and without enough skepticism.
  3. Sensational media coverage amplifies climate alarm, and that panic often persists even after studies are corrected or retracted.

The Battle for Climate Science and Policy Past—And Why It Matters

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 1746 implied HN points • 24 Nov 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. The critical debate in climate science is about whether past scenarios were flawed, not just forecasts of the future; a key 2017 study showed many high-emission scenarios relied on unrealistic assumptions about coal and fossil fuel growth.
  2. Despite evidence that extreme scenarios like RCP8.5 are unlikely, influential authors reframed them as ‘worst cases,’ so thousands of studies and policy discussions still use outdated scenarios and risk drawing misleading conclusions.
  3. If the scenarios were fundamentally flawed from the start, then climate research, scenario development, and policy choices need major changes, and the fight over this history will shape who leads future climate science and policy.

The Bad Science and Bad Policy at the Heart of the Climate Movement

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 5172 implied HN points • 28 Jul 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. Climate change has different definitions in science and policy, leading to confusion and inconsistencies in understanding. Scientists define it broadly while policy focuses mainly on human-caused changes.
  2. Current climate policies often rely on temperature targets, assuming they directly relate to greenhouse gas emissions. However, recent research shows other factors also significantly affect global temperatures.
  3. Reducing air pollution, while beneficial, can lead to increased temperatures due to less cooling from aerosols. This creates a complex situation where good actions for health might clash with climate goals.

Emissions Scenarios, CWG Fact Check 1

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 3699 implied HN points • 03 Aug 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. Recent projections of climate change are showing less severe outcomes than before. This means the future might not be as bad as some had predicted.
  2. Scientists have recently agreed that the world will probably warm less than previously thought. This is a positive development and could change how we approach climate policies.
  3. Regulations aimed at reducing emissions, like those from the EPA, might not have a big impact on global emissions. More effective methods to tackle climate change could be needed.

Well Cited

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 3032 implied HN points • 05 Aug 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. The Department of Energy (DOE) Climate Working Group report cites a lot of research accurately, which is a positive sign for scientific integrity.
  2. It's important for scientific studies to be interpreted correctly, even if they support policies that some researchers might not agree with.
  3. The author suggests that some citations in the report could be improved for clarity and recommends updates to ensure accuracy.

The Same Tool, The Same Week

Anima Mundi • 267 implied HN points • 18 Jan 26
🕹 Technology Climate Science
  1. People are losing trust in old institutions and turning to friends and local networks, so we need new, transparent ways to build trust that can still coordinate at large scale.
  2. The same AI can be touted as a military asset and banned for abuse in the same week, which shows global norms for governing tech are fractured and risks an unconstrained arms race if not addressed.
  3. Climate data points to accelerating warming and the era of 'warnings' is ending, so we must shift to serious adaptation, systemic transformation, and holding the biggest emitters accountable.

Has the Rate of Global Warming More Than Doubled?

God's Spies by Thomas Neuburger • 160 implied HN points • 11 Feb 26
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. Global warming has clearly accelerated since about 2015, with recent warming rates more than double the long-term 1970–2010 trend.
  2. If the next La Niña low is higher than past El Niño highs, that would confirm the faster warming and make 2°C of global warming likely in the 2030s instead of midcentury.
  3. The practical response is to plan and prepare to adapt to greater climate risks while still living well and focusing on what matters in daily life.

Too Big to Fail

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 2581 implied HN points • 15 Aug 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. A recent climate study published in *Nature* predicted large economic losses due to climate change, but it has been found to be seriously flawed. This could potentially mislead policymakers and the public.
  2. Experts discovered that correcting some mistakes in the original study greatly reduced the predicted damages, showing they might not be significant at all. This raises questions about the reliability of the findings.
  3. The flawed study has been widely accepted in important policy discussions, which could create serious consequences for global economic strategies and confidence in climate science.

Top Five Climate Change Narratives in the Media

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 3003 implied HN points • 27 Jun 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. Many stories link unrelated topics, like sports or health issues, to climate change. This can oversimplify complex issues and just feeds a narrative.
  2. Shocking predictions about climate disasters grab attention and are often presented without considering their plausibility. This can create fear rather than informed discussion.
  3. Media often frames climate discussions in a way that divides people into heroes and villains based on their views. This can make issues feel political rather than based on facts.

"Not Gold Standard Science"

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 1864 implied HN points • 16 Aug 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. The EPA used research to claim that greenhouse gas emissions are lower than expected, but they didn't explain why this is the case. This leaves out important factors that need to be considered.
  2. High-end emissions scenarios, which expected more pollution, were based on unrealistic technology and economic assumptions. Reality has shown that these extreme predictions were unlikely to happen.
  3. The way the EPA is changing emission standards misinterprets the research. It's like saying we don't need safety measures because a big accident didn't happen, ignoring that the measures are what kept it from happening in the first place.

So many moving pieces

The Crucial Years • 2909 implied HN points • 20 Jun 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. Climate change is a big deal, and it's getting worse faster than we thought. We need to pay attention because it's impacting everything from weather patterns to food production.
  2. Extreme weather events are becoming more common and intense, like heavy rain and severe heat. This is due to climate change making weather patterns more unpredictable.
  3. There's a push for clean energy solutions like solar and wind power, but financial systems and politics are blocking real action. We need to prioritize clean energy to tackle climate issues.

The Climate Beat Goes On

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 1786 implied HN points • 12 Aug 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. The DOE and EPA reports reflect differing perspectives on climate change. The DOE report highlights some overlooked issues in climate science, while the EPA document focuses more on legal arguments.
  2. There are areas of agreement between the DOE and IPCC reports, but there are also differences in emphasis. Some scientists feel certain important topics are not given enough attention in mainstream assessments.
  3. The idea of 'mainstream' science can sometimes be used to dismiss valid scientific views. Healthy scientific discussions should involve debate and challenge instead of gatekeeping.

The Climate Conversation is Changing

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 1727 implied HN points • 11 Aug 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. The climate conversation is shifting, with more emphasis on understanding the actual risks of climate change rather than just the scary headlines. It's important to know the real science behind what's happening.
  2. Recent reports highlight how climate data can be misunderstood or misrepresented. For example, some believe hurricanes are increasing, but recent studies show no clear trend in hurricane frequency.
  3. Adaptation to climate change is more effective than many realize. Studies show that people and infrastructures are improving their resilience to changes like heat waves and wildfires.

What is a "Worst Case" Climate Scenario?

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 2482 implied HN points • 04 Jun 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. RCP8.5 is a worst-case climate scenario that is based on very unlikely assumptions and does not reflect current realities. It is important to understand that it's not just improbable, but actually impossible based on recent data.
  2. Defining a 'worst case' scenario isn’t straightforward. It can be influenced by values and politics, as different people might see different outcomes as more or less desirable.
  3. Creating climate scenarios should involve a broader group, including experts and everyday people. This way, we can address the political aspects and ensure the scenarios used for policy-making are relevant and realistic.

Storage Units

Doomberg • 6525 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. Transitioning solely to renewable energy sources is risky because no region has successfully operated a reliable grid using only wind and solar power.
  2. Building storage systems, like batteries, is expensive and may not solve the issues of reliability when renewables aren't producing energy.
  3. Conducting small-scale experiments at home can help individuals understand how much backup power they really need when the grid is unstable.

From Idealism to Realism

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 4357 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. Geopolitics often influences climate policies more than climate science itself. Countries prioritize their own interests over global climate agreements.
  2. The belief that scientific knowledge would automatically lead to climate action has proven overly optimistic. Many expected that understanding climate issues would unite nations, but it hasn't happened.
  3. Adapting to climate change is a slow process. The world will continue to gradually change, but there won't be a simple or happy resolution to the challenges posed by a warming planet.

The Truth About Climate Change ‘Lies Somewhere in the Middle’

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1201 implied HN points • 19 Aug 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. Steven Koonin believes that many discussions about climate change tend to overlook important facts. He suggests that a deeper look at climate science reveals differing views that are often not shared.
  2. Koonin's recent report claims that the dangers of greenhouse gases are exaggerated and includes claims that carbon dioxide can actually benefit plant growth.
  3. The report has sparked controversy, with some environmental groups suing over its findings, arguing that it undermines the understanding of climate change and its causes.

The Secret Behind Europe's Outsized Influence in Climate Science and Policy

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 3287 implied HN points • 04 Jan 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. A study shows that most climate scenarios used in global reports come from Europe. This means European views and ideas shape how we think about climate change.
  2. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are important tools in climate science, but they can reflect the biases and values of their developers. This could lead to skewed perceptions of energy sources like renewables compared to nuclear.
  3. The global efforts in climate modeling may not consider the needs of developing countries as much. Scenarios are often influenced by wealthy nations and may overlook how different regions approach climate solutions.

Tricks of the Trade

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 3012 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. Many claims about hurricanes becoming stronger due to climate change are inflated. For example, a recent study suggested a storm was 40% more likely, but a closer look shows it was actually a small increase from 7.2% to 10%.
  2. Some scientific methods assume that every storm is affected by climate change without considering other factors. This oversimplification can lead to misleading results, like claiming a storm was 7,000% more likely when it’s really about understanding many influencing factors.
  3. Recent research indicates that in some areas, tropical cyclones are not actually becoming more destructive and may even be decreasing in intensity. This contradicts the narrative that climate change always leads to worse storms.

Twenty Years Later, 'An Inconvenient Truth' Has Been Thoroughly Debunked

Unmasked • 67 implied HN points • 15 Jan 26
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. Many of the film's high‑profile climate predictions have not come true over the past twenty years, and critics argue those specific claims have been debunked.
  2. The film played a major role in pushing aggressive climate policies like net‑zero targets and electric vehicle mandates, which some now question given the disputed predictions.
  3. The situation highlights that experts and public figures can be overconfident or mistaken, with examples like the Kilimanjaro snow prediction and disputed CO2 measurement claims cited as evidence.

A Potential Solution to Climate Catastrophe

God's Spies by Thomas Neuburger • 60 implied HN points • 16 Jan 26
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. Ocean iron fertilization could rapidly pull CO2 out of the air by seeding parts of the ocean and boosting phytoplankton, and proponents say it might restore safer CO2 levels within a few decades.
  2. The science and ecology are uncertain — experiments and studies show mixed results and risks like harmful algal blooms, damage to fisheries, and unintended climate effects could occur.
  3. Even if it works, it poses a political and ethical problem because it could let powerful actors avoid cutting emissions and keep exploiting the planet instead of making systemic change.

Three small Christmas presents

The Crucial Years • 1604 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. Some big oil companies are planning to build new gas plants to power energy-hungry data centers for AI. But experts suggest that solar farms next to these centers would be a quicker and cleaner solution.
  2. A recent ruling in Montana gave children a constitutional right to a clean environment, aiming to protect their future from climate change. This could inspire similar lawsuits in other states.
  3. In Germany, many people are installing solar panels on their balconies, leading to significant savings on electricity bills. This trend is spreading to Spain and could be a game-changer for apartment living.

Shrinking the Tent

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 1697 implied HN points • 21 Nov 24
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. Some climate activists are creating echo chambers on social media, blocking people they disagree with. This limits discussion about different views on climate issues.
  2. There is a growing concern that climate activism is becoming too exclusive and not practical enough to be effective in real-world situations.
  3. A focus on strict ideological purity is hurting the climate movement, making it harder to bring in new supporters and make meaningful progress.

Sounding the Climate Change Alarm: Lessons from Carl Sagan

The Climate Historian • 19 implied HN points • 29 Aug 24
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. Carl Sagan connected the extreme climate of Venus to warnings about Earth's future. He showed us that understanding other planets can help us prevent our world from facing similar climate issues.
  2. Sagan proposed four key actions to tackle climate change: using fossil fuels more efficiently, developing alternative energy, reforestation, and helping the world's poorest. These ideas are still very important today.
  3. Despite Sagan's warnings and advancements in some areas, we are facing more climate challenges now. It's crucial that we change our thinking and take long-term actions for the planet's future.

Overestimating Climate Change Damages

Something to Consider • 79 implied HN points • 30 Jun 24
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. Estimating climate change damages is tricky. It's important to look at unexpected temperature changes instead of just the overall rise in temperatures over time.
  2. People adapt better in the long run than we might think. While weather shocks can hurt people immediately, they learn and adjust to new conditions over time.
  3. The costs of climate change are serious but not as high as some estimates suggest. Humanity has a good capacity for adaptation, which should be considered when assessing potential damages.

How Environmentalism Works in California

The Discourse Lounge • 379 implied HN points • 07 Jul 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Science
  1. California's environmental regulations are changing quickly but have a complex history that shapes their current form. Understanding this history helps explain why these rules exist today.
  2. The California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) was recently reformed, and there is a misunderstanding about how environmental protections are applied in California. They're now managed more broadly instead of on a project-by-project basis.
  3. There's a generational divide in the environmental movement, with different views coming from new climate science and earlier beliefs about growth and sustainability in cities.