The hottest Value investing Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

Using Options As A Value Investor: Part 1

Behavioral Value Investor • 118 implied HN points • 02 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Value investing
  1. Options can enhance a value investor's returns when used alongside rigorous fundamental valuation and a long‑term investment process.
  2. Never assume unlimited downside risk — avoid naked calls and other strategies that expose you to unlimited losses.
  3. Know the basics: calls and puts give rights to buy or sell at a strike price, American options can be exercised anytime, options trade on exchanges, and using covered positions (like covered calls or puts) limits obligations and can lower your effective purchase price.

10-Minute Investment Autopsy No. 4: Advance Auto Parts

Behavioral Value Investor • 59 implied HN points • 26 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Value investing
  1. The automotive aftermarket looks like a stable, slow-changing business where short trips, urgency, low ticket sizes, and helpful in-store service create repeat customers and limit online disruption, which can support margin improvement like competitors have shown.
  2. Execution risk mattered: same-store sales were weaker than expected even as margins improved, but better results at peers suggested the problems were company-specific rather than structural, so early misses didn’t automatically change the value view.
  3. The market quickly priced in expected synergies from a large acquisition, closing the gap to intrinsic value and creating a clear exit opportunity, and sensible position sizing plus discipline let the investor realize the gain.

The Evolution of Behavioral Value Investor

Behavioral Value Investor • 118 implied HN points • 29 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Value investing
  1. A paid tier is launching to help serious investors systematically improve, centered on a weekly "10-Minute Investment Autopsy" case study plus deeper company deep-dives, frameworks, and templates.
  2. Free content and the Value Investing Seminar will remain available, while paid members get a moderated community, regular interaction, an annual Zoom Q&A, and group or educational rates for teams and professors.
  3. The service is explicitly educational, not a stock tip or portfolio service — no public recommendations or portfolio transparency — and aims to improve your investing process with as little as about 30 minutes a week.

[2025–2026] Week 20: The Mental Game of Poker by Jared Tendler

Behavioral Value Investor • 14 implied HN points • 06 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Value investing
  1. Forecasting is hard but unavoidable; to earn excess returns you must make a forecast that disagrees with the expectations already priced into a stock.
  2. Your mental game matters — strive to operate in your A‑game rather than your C‑game, learn how to detect when you’ve slipped, identify the causes, and develop routines to correct course.
  3. Deliberate practice and community feedback help you improve: use case studies, complete assignments, share your answers, and engage with others to sharpen your investing skills.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

The 10-Minute Investment Autopsy Series: A Guide for Thoughtful Investors

Behavioral Value Investor • 52 implied HN points • 04 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Value investing
  1. A weekly 10-minute series will analyze past investment decisions to help experienced investors improve their process quickly.
  2. Each autopsy reviews the original thesis, lays out the facts of what happened, explains why it unfolded that way, and extracts practical and behavioral lessons.
  3. Readers are encouraged to actively engage by pausing after the thesis, questioning assumptions and biases, and using the lessons to avoid mistakes or spot opportunities.

[2025–2026] Week 19: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip Tetlock

Behavioral Value Investor • 14 implied HN points • 27 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Value investing
  1. Start building an investing checklist early and update it as your approach evolves so it becomes a reliable repository of your process and decision rules.
  2. Learn and practice forecasting skills by studying what makes superforecasters better than average and by making clear, probabilistic predictions to sharpen judgment.
  3. Share your answers in a single comment and engage with others' responses to learn through feedback and community discussion.

[2025–2026] Week 17: Big Money Thinks Small by Joel Tillinghast

Behavioral Value Investor • 29 implied HN points • 13 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Value investing
  1. Read Joel Tillinghast’s Big Money Thinks Small and answer six focused questions about his investment style, background, best and worst investments, stock ideas, and an AI-based prompt.
  2. His approach emphasizes finding small, undiscovered companies by doing on-the-ground research and favoring inexpensive stocks judged by current profits and cash flow, combining a Peter Lynch–style search with a Neff-like value focus, while recognizing how randomness can affect short-term results.
  3. Participants should post all answers in a single comment, engage respectfully with others, and note that the next assigned book is The Investment Checklist.

Warner Bros.: How 5 Mental Models Turned Lonely Conviction into a Big Win

Behavioral Value Investor • 104 implied HN points • 17 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Value investing
  1. Use several mental models together instead of relying on intrinsic value alone. When ideas like "good business vs bad business," potential vs kinetic energy, and auction dynamics line up, they can reveal big opportunities.
  2. Focus on unique assets and how they can be better monetized or separated from weak parts of the business. Actions like spin-offs, stronger IP monetization, or strategic interest from acquirers can turn hidden value into real gains.
  3. Use long-dated options selectively and size positions to get asymmetric payoffs while managing time risk. Also keep in mind that competitive auctions or strategic bidders can push prices far above standalone intrinsic value, so lock in gains when it makes sense.

Links - 01/16/2024

Value Investing World • 432 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Value investing
  1. Trying to assign precise values to investments can be misleading and inaccurate.
  2. Security analysis does not require exact intrinsic value, just a rough estimate that indicates whether it's a good buy or not.
  3. Consider the imperfect nature of valuing businesses when making investment decisions.

Links - 01/09/2024

Value Investing World • 452 implied HN points • 10 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Value investing
  1. In times of easy money, people tend to take risky investments over maintaining high standards.
  2. Choosing to abstain from risky investments and herd behavior requires uncommon strength.
  3. Check out valuable investment insights from sources like Howard Marks, Boyar Research, Mohnish Pabrai, and Fundsmith's annual letter.

[2025–2026] Week 12: The Money Game by 'Adam Smith'

Behavioral Value Investor • 44 implied HN points • 09 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Value investing
  1. There are many different investing styles that can succeed, so focus on the approach that fits your natural strengths and find ways to cover or mitigate your weaknesses.
  2. Human psychology and behavioral biases strongly shape market decisions, so studying past market behavior helps you recognize recurring patterns and avoid common mistakes.
  3. Active learning and community engagement—doing assigned readings, answering questions, and discussing ideas respectfully—accelerate understanding and improve practical investing skills.

Value Investing Substack Portfolio Review | Annual Letter 2023

Value Investing Substack • 373 implied HN points • 14 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Value investing
  1. The VIS Portfolio outperformed the S&P 500 both in up and down years, showing it's a zero-correlation portfolio.
  2. By focusing on undervalued stocks, the VIS Portfolio achieved similar or higher upside than the S&P 500 with lower downside risk.
  3. The VIS Portfolio has consistently beaten the S&P 500 across different time periods, showcasing the effectiveness of the value investing strategy.

[2025–2026] Week 13: You Can Be a Stock Market Genius by Joel Greenblatt

Behavioral Value Investor • 29 implied HN points • 16 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Value investing
  1. Human behavior keeps repeating, so psychological biases and recurring irrationality are central to how markets misprice securities.
  2. Come to the market with a clear, entrenched investment process and a strong sense of who you are, because learning by trading costs you dearly; identity and anxiety often drive choices more than cold arithmetic.
  3. Special situations like spin-offs, restructurings, rights offerings and takeovers create repeatable templates to find mispriced assets, so evaluating which categories are more efficient today and compiling candidate opportunities is a practical next step.

[2025–2026] Week 14: One Up On Wall Street by Peter Lynch

Behavioral Value Investor • 22 implied HN points • 23 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Value investing
  1. True mispricings tend to come from special situations caused by forced selling or neglect, like spin-offs, post-bankruptcy stocks, or sidelined divisions. These situations often let patient investors buy assets the market is overlooking.
  2. Popular, hyped stocks—including hot-sector names, IPOs, and momentum-driven picks—are more driven by sentiment than fundamentals and are less likely to offer reliable bargains. They often create FOMO and poor entry points for long-term investors.
  3. Stick to your circle of competence and hunt for neglected or forced-sale opportunities, using careful research and tools such as long-dated options to capture asymmetric upside with limited downside. Sharing ideas and learning from others can help you find and refine these opportunities.

[2025–2026] Week 15: John Neff on Investing

Behavioral Value Investor • 14 implied HN points • 30 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Value investing
  1. Study John Neff’s approach by mapping his investment style, linking it to his background, and evaluating specific examples and modern stock ideas using the six guided questions.
  2. Great investors leverage a personal knowledge edge and apply a broad set of strategies—stalwarts, cyclicals, turnarounds, and long-term growers—using simple, clear theses rather than overcomplicated models.
  3. Use a disciplined, time-efficient routine like a weekly 10-minute investment autopsy to systematically dissect real decisions and steadily improve your investing process.

[2025–2026] Week 10: Warren Buffett: Berkshire Hathaway Years

Behavioral Value Investor • 37 implied HN points • 12 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Value investing
  1. He started as a Graham-style deep-value investor but often acted like an activist, pushing management or catalysts to realize hidden value.
  2. Over time he moved toward buying high-quality businesses and whole companies, placing more weight on management, qualitative insights, and long-term compounding than on pure quantitative bargains.
  3. Comparing his partnership years to his Berkshire years highlights practical questions to answer: what to copy or avoid, which investments were best or worst, and how his approach would adapt to different capital sizes and situations.

[2025–2026] Week 11: John Train's The New Money Masters

Behavioral Value Investor • 29 implied HN points • 19 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Value investing
  1. Investors must evolve their methods over time, moving beyond old bargain-only strategies to favor durable, high-quality businesses while still insisting on a clear margin of safety.
  2. Temperament matters: patience and the willingness to wait for the right opportunities are as important to long-term returns as intelligence, process, or experience.
  3. The seminar assigns reading The New Money Masters and practical work: map investors’ styles, pick your favorite and least favorite with reasons, create an AI prompt based on an investor, and share all answers in a single comment while engaging respectfully with others.

Value Investors: How To "Buy & Hold" Forever Despite ST Volatility

Value Investing Substack • 294 implied HN points • 25 Jun 23
đź’° Finance Value investing
  1. Value investors can create a low-volatility portfolio by combining Factor Investing with Value Investing
  2. Implementing a diversified portfolio of 20 stocks with >1:3 risk:reward can provide a 15% CAGR while minimizing downside volatility
  3. Staying disciplined, identifying stocks with high risk:reward ratio, and staying in cash until finding suitable opportunities are key strategies for value investors

[2025–2026] Week 16: Investing Against the Tide by Anthony Bolton

Behavioral Value Investor • 7 implied HN points • 06 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Value investing
  1. John Neff’s large-cap value approach focused on stable, predictable businesses bought at low P/E ratios, yielding a high batting average, modest winners, small losses, and roughly a 3% annual edge over decades.
  2. This week’s assignment centers on Anthony Bolton’s Investing Against the Tide, with specific questions to map his investment style, link it to his background, and evaluate his best and worst picks.
  3. The seminar is designed to be interactive and practical: participants are asked to submit a single comment with answers, engage with others, and use extra resources like the 10‑Minute Investment Autopsy and the next reading to keep improving.

The True Value of Your Time

Running Lean Mastery • 196 implied HN points • 23 Mar 23
đź’Ľ Business Value investing
  1. Time is our scarcest resource, unlike money and people, it only moves in one direction.
  2. Many people tend to value money more than time, leading them to make decisions based on immediate monetary gains rather than future value.
  3. Early-stage entrepreneurs often fall into the trap of equating money with time, impacting their decisions.

Three Names Worth Updating: Chris DeMuth

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 12 implied HN points • 07 Jul 25
đź’° Finance Value investing
  1. Great investors often look for value in boring places that others ignore. It's not always about the latest trends or flashy companies.
  2. Consistency and patience are key; buying good assets at a fair price can lead to great results over time.
  3. Sometimes, it's better to seek out decent opportunities at a discount rather than chasing after the next big success. Aim for steady and reliable investments.