The hottest Voting Trends Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top U.S. Politics Topics

Bunk, Debunked

Magic + Loss • 894 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion Elections Political Rhetoric Voting Trends Campaign strategies
  1. Kamala Harris is doing well in several polls, showing she's ahead of Trump nationally. This is encouraging for her supporters as it suggests strong backing.
  2. Trump is using aggressive and divisive language that echoes dangerous past movements. Many observers are concerned about the implications of this rhetoric.
  3. The results of these polls counter common narratives that suggest Harris is losing support among certain groups. It's important to rely on data rather than hearsay.

America doesn't really have a working class

Noahpinion • 36765 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Identity politics Voting Trends Political Discourse
  1. Many Americans, including those with college degrees, identify as 'working class', even if they earn good money. This shows that people often see themselves based on their experiences rather than their economic status.
  2. Class politics in America is tricky because the idea of a distinct 'working class' is fading. Many jobs are now varied and fragmented, making it hard for people to feel united as one economic group.
  3. Addressing economic issues is important, but Democrats should connect with voters as fellow Americans rather than trying to spark class struggle. Simply pushing class politics may not be effective.

Identity politics isn't working

Noahpinion • 36824 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political strategy Voting Trends Identity politics Public Opinion
  1. Identity politics isn't connecting with voters. Treating people as part of a racial group rather than as individuals hasn’t worked well for Democrats.
  2. Inflation is a bigger concern for people than unemployment. Voters are more focused on rising costs than job numbers.
  3. The educated class is losing touch with regular folks. There needs to be better understanding and communication between these groups.

Whoa! Is California Shifting... Red?!

COVID Reason • 971 implied HN points • 10 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voting Trends Political parties Demographics Election Impact State Politics
  1. California, which has always been a Democratic stronghold, is experiencing more voters registering as Republicans now. This change is getting attention and making people wonder about future elections.
  2. Groups that typically support Democrats, like Latinos and young voters, are switching to the Republican Party in larger numbers. This could change the political landscape there.
  3. Even though the shift to Republican registration is small, it's a sign that Democrats might be losing support in important groups, which could lead to bigger changes in the future.

Let's Look at the Map. Trump May Not Need Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Vicky Ward Investigates • 119 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaign Strategy Election Dynamics Political Analysis Media influence Voting Trends
  1. Trump might benefit because Kamala Harris hasn't distanced herself from Biden enough.
  2. Spending a lot on ads may not help much once you've reached most voters, so the extra funds might not matter.
  3. The electoral map shows that Trump might not need to win Michigan or Pennsylvania to succeed.
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How YouTubers pushed young male voters to Trump (with receipts)

Taylor Lorenz's Newsletter • 4657 implied HN points • 23 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Influence Media Analysis Voting Trends Youth Engagement Cultural Shifts
  1. YouTubers have become very influential in shaping political opinions, especially among young men. Their mix of entertainment and political content helped many voters swing towards Trump.
  2. The calls for masculinity and distrust in traditional institutions resonated with many young people. This messaging provided a comfort to those feeling lost or marginalized in society.
  3. The media landscape has shifted, with traditional news losing ground to internet personalities. This shift highlights how critical it is for political figures to connect with voters where they spend their time online.

What Working-Class Voters Wanted

Rob Henderson's Newsletter • 5795 implied HN points • 24 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voting Trends Political Messaging Cultural Issues Elections Demographics
  1. Many working-class voters were drawn to Trump's message of American greatness and opportunity. They felt inspired by his promises to restore economic strength.
  2. The Democratic Party's focus on cultural issues may have alienated many traditional voters. People without college degrees don't always share the same values as those in elite circles.
  3. Many voters, including people of color, still believe in the American Dream. This belief contrasts with some progressive views that paint America negatively.

As Alternative für Deutschland continues to rise in the polls, the centre-right CDU find themselves out of options and in a self-destructive messaging spiral

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 204 implied HN points • 11 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Voting Trends Political Analysis Public Opinion
  1. Alternative für Deutschland is gaining support in recent polls, showing a significant increase in their popularity.
  2. The centre-right CDU is struggling to maintain voter support and is stuck in a pattern of negative messaging against the AfD.
  3. Friedrich Merz, the CDU's chancellor candidate, is linking his future to not cooperating with the AfD, even as many of his own supporters lean towards them.

The model exactly predicted the most likely election map

Silver Bulletin • 790 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Candidates Political Analysis Voting Trends
  1. The election model predicted the map based on 80,000 simulations, accurately reflecting the most common outcome, though some surprises were noted.
  2. Polling errors tend to be similar across states, meaning if Trump performed poorly in one swing state, he likely did in others, leading to a statistically predictable outcome.
  3. Beneath the overall results, some deep blue states showed unexpected weakness for the Democrats, while some traditionally red states are trending more blue, indicating shifting voter patterns.

Black Republicans and Big Man Syndrome

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 1536 implied HN points • 09 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political theory Voting Trends Party Dynamics Identity politics
  1. Some black Republicans are seen as performing for the audience, trying to challenge leftist views. Their backgrounds and statements can lead to controversy.
  2. Republicans may actively seek out black leaders to show they aren't racist, even if those candidates have questionable traits.
  3. The term 'Big Man Syndrome' describes leaders who gain power through charisma and personal control, rather than official positions. This idea comes from studying how some societies operate around influential figures.

Voters fed up with foreign entanglements were justifiably repulsed by the Democrats, even if Trump and the Republicans are a sham

Michael Tracey • 138 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voting Trends Foreign Policy Political parties Government Policy Election Analysis
  1. Many voters are unhappy with how much money the government spends on foreign conflicts instead of helping people at home. This anger might push them to vote against the current party in power.
  2. Despite Trump's mistakes during his time in office, he still appeals to voters who want a change from current policies. His promises to prioritize American interests resonate with those feeling ignored.
  3. Voters feel that both major parties are not addressing their needs, especially regarding foreign policy. This frustration could lead them to support Trump again, even if they know it might not bring real solutions.

No, men’s views on policy haven’t really changed

Of Boys and Men • 99 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voting Trends Gender gap Policy Analysis Political engagement Public Opinion
  1. Men's views on key issues have not changed much in the past two years. They generally care about the same topics as women.
  2. The gender gap in policy preferences is actually getting smaller. Men and women are aligning more closely on what they consider important.
  3. Even when they see issues like voting rights as important, men and women might have different reasons for why they care, reflecting broader cultural divisions rather than just policy differences.

About This Week...

God's Spies by Thomas Neuburger • 50 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Voting Trends
  1. Many young voters switched sides this election, with a noticeable drop in support for the Democratic candidate. This is a big change from previous trends where younger voters strongly favored Democrats.
  2. Income levels played a key role in voting patterns, with lower income groups leaning more towards Republicans this time. It's a shift from earlier elections, where they typically supported Democrats.
  3. Voters were motivated by their views on the economy, with many feeling worse off than before. This seem to have led more people to vote for Trump, focusing on economic issues.

GOP Primary Candidate Venn Diagram #6: Herman Cain

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 25 Dec 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Candidates Campaigns Political Analysis Voting Trends
  1. Herman Cain was a notable GOP primary candidate. He gained attention for his unique perspectives and business background.
  2. Venn diagrams were used to compare candidates in the GOP primary. These visual tools helped illustrate the similarities and differences among the candidates.
  3. The discussion included various other GOP candidates. Each candidate brought their individual qualities to the race, contributing to a diverse field.