Astral Codex Ten $10 / month

Astral Codex Ten delves into a wide array of subjects, including the scrutinization of conspiracy theories, expert predictions on global catastrophes, the intersection of transgender health issues with genetics, current events, long COVID research, quirky global occurrences, AI in forecasting, and book reviews. It focuses on critical analysis, scientific skepticism, and forecasting accuracy.

Conspiracy Theories Global Catastrophes Transgender Health Current Events Long COVID Quirky Global Occurrences Artificial Intelligence Forecasting Book Reviews

The hottest Substack posts of Astral Codex Ten

And their main takeaways

Open Thread 311

5574 implied HN points • 15 Jan 24
🕹 Technology AI AI Alignment Machine Learning
  1. Weekly open thread for discussions and questions on various topics.
  2. AI art generators still have room for improvement in handling tough compositionality requests.
  3. Reminder about the PIBBSS Fellowship, a fully-funded program in AI alignment for PhDs and postdocs from diverse fields.

Mantic Monday 1/29/24

5093 implied HN points • 30 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics
  1. Prediction markets can have election problems due to mispricing and bias
  2. Recent polls suggest Trump's popularity is rising while Biden's is declining for unknown reasons
  3. Forecasting AI futures involves complex scenarios like AI-Fizzle, Futurama, and Paperclipalypse

The Extinction Tournament

9153 implied HN points • 20 Jul 23
🔬 Science Artificial Intelligence Forecasting Existential Risk Technology
  1. Experts and superforecasters had a strong disagreement on the likelihood of global catastrophes.
  2. The tournament explored global disaster risks, with 'Catastrophe' meaning an event killing over 10% of the population, and 'Extinction' meaning reducing human population below 5,000.
  3. The tournament highlighted the challenges in aligning expert predictions, potential biases in forecasts, and the complexities of forecasting AI-related risks.

Mantic Monday 3/11/24

4336 implied HN points • 12 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Artificial Intelligence Cryptocurrency Prediction Markets AI Ethics
  1. Academic teams are working on fine-tuning AIs for better predictions, competing with the wisdom of crowds.
  2. The use of multiple AI models and aggregating predictions may be as effective as human crowdsourced predictions.
  3. Superforecasters' perspectives on AI risks differ based on the pace of AI advancement, showcasing varied opinions within expert communities.
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Mantic Monday 2/19/24

4473 implied HN points • 20 Feb 24
🕹 Technology AI Prediction Markets Forecasting Blockchain
  1. AI forecasters are becoming more prevalent in prediction markets, with the potential for bots to compete against humans in forecasting events.
  2. FutureSearch.ai is a new company building an AI-based forecaster that prompts itself with various questions to estimate probabilities.
  3. The integration of AI in prediction markets like Polymarket could increase market participation and accuracy, offering a new way to predict outcomes on various topics.

Hidden Open Thread 360.5

688 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
🎭️ Culture Arts Literature Music Philosophy History
  1. This post is for paid subscribers only, meaning you need a subscription to access the content.
  2. There’s an open thread format where subscribers can engage with the content and share their thoughts.
  3. It encourages community interaction and discussion among its members.

Open Thread 310

4749 implied HN points • 08 Jan 24
🔬 Science Research Psychology Social Science
  1. Weekly open thread for sharing anything or asking questions.
  2. Seeking volunteers in different expertise areas for reviewing proposals.
  3. Discussion on the impact of distinctively black names on job interviews and life outcomes.

Open Thread 312

4404 implied HN points • 22 Jan 24
🚌 Education Online community Moderation
  1. This is a weekly open thread for all topics and questions.
  2. Collaborator sought for a study on Bayesian updating and precision weighting.
  3. Moderation update with a list of banned users.

Hidden Open Thread 364.5

481 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
🎭️ Culture Media Discussion Community Opinion Engagement
  1. This is a post for paid subscribers only, meaning not everyone can access the content. It encourages people to consider subscribing to enjoy the benefits.
  2. The post is about an open thread, which suggests it allows discussion or sharing of thoughts among subscribers. This helps build community and engage readers.
  3. The mention of a specific date indicates that the content may be time-sensitive or related to ongoing discussions, prompting readers to check it out soon.

Hidden Open Thread 355.5

894 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
🎭️ Culture Arts Literature Philosophy Traditions Social Issues
  1. This is an open thread for subscribers to discuss various topics. It's a space for people to share their thoughts and engage with one another.
  2. The post is meant for paid subscribers, indicating exclusive content. This means only those who support the platform can participate.
  3. Readers are encouraged to share the post, which helps increase visibility and engagement. Sharing can also foster a sense of community among subscribers.

Hidden Open Thread 359.5

688 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
🎭️ Culture Discussion Community Subscriptions Engagement
  1. This post is meant for people who pay for a subscription. It provides exclusive content not available to everyone.
  2. The thread seems to encourage discussion, inviting readers to share their thoughts or comments.
  3. It has a casual tone, suggesting it might be a space for community engagement or sharing opinions.

Links For May 2023

8396 implied HN points • 01 Jun 23
🕹 Technology AI Research Ethics Regulations Innovation
  1. The Nisean horse was highly regarded by ancient civilizations and fought over in wars
  2. UNAM university in Mexico is operating an octopus farm disguised as a research center
  3. Research shows that the Success Sequence may not accurately measure outcomes due to various factors

Why Do Transgender People Report Hypermobile Joints?

9498 implied HN points • 16 Mar 23
🏥 Health & Wellness
  1. Transgender people have reported higher rates of Ehlers-Danlos syndrome (EDS) and joint disorders.
  2. Possible reasons for this include genetics, estrogen, and a connection to autism.
  3. Research shows a higher incidence of joint issues in transgender individuals, suggesting a potential link that requires further exploration.

Open Thread 319

3166 implied HN points • 11 Mar 24
🚌 Education Discussion Contest Opportunity
  1. Updates on the 2023 Forecasting Contest were shared, including progress on showing everyone's score, correction on commenter performance, potential prize donation, and interactive analyses by Jordan Breffle.
  2. A comment on race and lived experience sparked discussion on Roma heritage and the challenges faced by different groups, revealing complexities in language and identity.
  3. The Center for Effective Altruism is seeking a new head of communications, offering a significant remote position with a salary up to mid-6-figures.

Links For February 2023

9635 implied HN points • 09 Feb 23
  1. Cultured meat companies preparing to sell exotic meats like lion and tiger meat.
  2. Government lifting restrictions on suboxone prescription for opioid abuse treatment.
  3. Interesting facts about Carl Sagan's marriages and personal life.

More Memorable Passages From "The Man Without A Face"

6194 implied HN points • 04 Aug 23
🌍 World Politics Russian Politics Activism Corruption Media influence Political Campaigns
  1. During the fall of the Soviet Union, activists creatively countered authorities by using lemons to silence a brass band.
  2. Corrupt officials, including Vladimir Putin, diverted imported meat from Leningrad to Moscow leading up to a failed coup.
  3. US politicians have cute personal stories to humanize, but Putin's lack of reaction to his dog's death reflects his impervious exterior.

Hidden Open Thread 368.5

275 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
🎭️ Culture Social Issues Philosophy Lifestyle Community Personal Growth
  1. This is a space for people to share thoughts and engage in discussions. Everyone can pitch in and contribute their ideas.
  2. The post is intended for paid subscribers, which means it may contain exclusive content. This helps create a community among paying members.
  3. The thread encourages open communication and interaction among readers, promoting a sense of belonging.

Open Thread 320

2821 implied HN points • 18 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Community Contest AI Research Poetry
  1. The 2023 Forecasting Contest winners were determined with an ambiguous scoring criteria, resulting in a few surprise winners
  2. The ACX Grants impact market has received 53 proposals, including projects such as growing blood vessels in the lab and a swarm of robotic bees
  3. A Reddit thread discussing an AI-generated reading of a poem from ACX highlights the speculation around AI involvement in online discussions

Open Thread 314

3097 implied HN points • 05 Feb 24
🚌 Education Articles
  1. Weekly visible open thread for posting anything.
  2. Clarifications on prediction markets and schizophrenia genetics.
  3. Announcement of new subscriber-only post about Democratic Socialists' budget crisis.

Hidden Open Thread 353.5

688 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
📖 Philosophy Ethics Logic Metaphysics Aesthetics Political
  1. This is a thread for subscribers to discuss various topics openly. People can share their thoughts and insights freely.
  2. It is exclusive to those who have paid a subscription. This means that the discussions here are intended for a smaller, dedicated group.
  3. Engagement is encouraged, with comments and sharing options available. Subscribers can interact with each other in a more personal space.

Mantic Monday 5/22/23

5919 implied HN points • 23 May 23
💰 Finance Prediction Markets Debt Ceiling Bitcoin Financial Decisions
  1. A play money prediction market turned serious when whales v. minnows gambling escalated, resulting in heavy financial losses, leading to ethical challenges.
  2. Congress is facing the decision of raising the debt ceiling, which if not resolved, could lead to severe economic consequences.
  3. Research shows that experts fare better than algorithms and non-experts in long-term geopolitical forecasting, raising questions about the accuracy and possibilities of such predictions.

Open Thread 315

2615 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
🚌 Education
  1. The post is about an open thread where people can discuss different topics freely.
  2. There is information about ACX Grants projects and a request for legal help with charity and tax deductions.
  3. The post mentions links to related channels like a subreddit, Discord, bulletin board, and in-person meetups.

Open Thread 317

2340 implied HN points • 26 Feb 24
🕹 Technology Social media AI Data
  1. Some users who were supposed to be unbanned were not truly unbanned, leading to a need for them to reach out to get it fixed.
  2. Substack acknowledges issues with page and comment loading speed, with plans to improve that in the future.
  3. GPT-6's training might require only 0.1% of the world's computers, according to Ben Todd's findings, a significant discrepancy from previous estimations.

Open Thread 316

2271 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
🕹 Technology Community Grants Research Contest AI safety
  1. ACX provides an open thread for weekly discussions where users can post anything, ask questions, and engage in various topics.
  2. ACX Grants project includes initiatives like exploring a mutation to turn off suffering and opportunities for researchers in AI safety.
  3. ACX mentions upcoming events like a book review contest with updated rules and a pushed back due date.

Open Thread 313

2202 implied HN points • 29 Jan 24
🔬 Science Research Genetics Psychology Fiction Education
  1. Genes matter 2x as much as the environment in schizophrenia, not 4x as previously thought
  2. A study on political reasoning errors failed to replicate, questioning a larger literature on the topic
  3. Humans merging with AI may not be unprecedented, as evidenced by a medieval Italian man merging with a knife

ACX Grants Followup Impact Market

1858 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
💼 Business Grants Investment Charity Philanthropy Finance
  1. ACX Grants involves an impact market where investors crowdfund grant proposals with potential for big profits if successful.
  2. Only 44 out of approximately 140 qualified participants have signed up for the impact market so far, with a different approach allowing non-accredited investors to participate.
  3. Investing in impact certificates through this system has risks like potential project failure, but also benefits such as tax deductibility.

Highlights From The Comments On Housing Density And Prices

4542 implied HN points • 10 May 23
💼 Business Economics Urban planning Housing Market City Development Real Estate
  1. Density is correlated with high prices, but demand, rather than new units, drives prices up.
  2. Long-term, attracting people through desirability is more impactful than building more houses alone.
  3. Building new housing may attract trendy cities, but some cities may have capped trendiness and adding density won't make them more popular.

Open Thread 318

1858 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
🚌 Education Discussion
  1. This post is part of a weekly open thread where users can share and discuss various topics.
  2. Manifold Markets is hosting a prediction market conference called Manifest, scheduled for June 7 to 9th, with early bird tickets available at $499.
  3. Jessica Ocean from the PsychCrisis blog has shared interesting insights on Proposition 1 regarding mental health funding in the California primary.