America in Crisis

The Substack 'America in Crisis' evaluates American economic and political situations through cultural evolutionary theory. It discusses radicalization, inflation, economic policies, cultural impacts on intelligence, and historical economic cycles, emphasizing the persistent influence of shareholder primacy on socio-economic structures and political dynamics.

Radicalization Cycles Inflation and Economic Policies Group Differences and Intelligence Cultural Evolution Historical Economic Cycles Shareholder vs. Stakeholder Capitalism American Political Dynamics Climate and Energy Policies American Foreign Policy Financial Crises Military and Hegemony

The hottest Substack posts of America in Crisis

And their main takeaways

A possible political resolution for our secular cycle crisis

39 implied HN points • 28 Apr 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political theory Political Evolution Political Realignment Presidential elections
  1. The current political situation in the US could lead to a resolution of the secular cycle crisis involving a shift in political dynamics.
  2. Past political frameworks and party dynamics, such as Reagan's three-legged stool, influence the current landscape and potential future political paths.
  3. The potential for a Democratic dispensation in response to the MAGA movement could bring about political realignment and potentially resolve the excess elite problem inherent in the system.

An alternate American political spectrum

19 implied HN points • 13 Dec 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Spectrum American history
  1. The American political spectrum can be viewed in terms of economic policies benefiting the Haves (Right) versus the Have Nots (Left) and cultural divisions between Red and Blue regions.
  2. Historical figures like Thomas Jefferson and Alexander Hamilton represent the rural, traditionalist Red America, and urban, progressive Blue America, respectively, shaping the early political landscape.
  3. Over time, political parties shifted positions on economic and cultural axes, leading to the evolution of Red and Blue identities, with Republicans holding a stronger position in the current political landscape.

The American Secular Cycles

39 implied HN points • 04 Apr 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics History Policy Political theory Economic Analysis Demographics
  1. America's history follows cyclical patterns of expansion, stagnation, crisis, and resolution, influenced by population growth, economic inequality, and elite competition.
  2. Secular cycles have been identified in American history from 1780 to 1930 and a current ongoing cycle since 1930, driven by demographic mechanisms and economic inequality.
  3. The resolution of past cycles involved significant events like the Civil War and the Great Depression, with policy responses playing a crucial role in resolving economic and political crises.

Political Evolution in the US

39 implied HN points • 28 Mar 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Evolution
  1. Political evolution in the US involves a cycle of Democratic and Republican presidential regimes that are shaped by Reconstructive, Articulative, Preemptive, and Disjunctive presidents.
  2. Presidents play a significant role in establishing and maintaining political paradigms, and the success of each presidency impacts the evolution of the political order.
  3. Economic policies and developments, along with changes in voting behavior, contribute to the evolution of political ideologies and the decline of certain political dispensations.

How the New Deal Order fell

39 implied HN points • 20 Mar 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Presidents Deficits Vietnam War
  1. Elite acceptance of the New Deal paradigm started to break down during the 1960s, leading to significant policy shifts that impacted economic stability and inflation.
  2. The decline in US gold reserves and the failure to address fiscal deficits were key signals of the breakdown of the New Deal Order, highlighting the challenges in managing the economy.
  3. Policy decisions around taxation, military spending, and social programs during the era reshaped economic cultures and paved the way for the transition from the New Deal to the Neoliberal Order.
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The End of American Hegemony

19 implied HN points • 14 Oct 23
🌍 World Politics Hegemony International Conflict Alliances Foreign Policy
  1. American hegemony is facing internal conflicts and challenges, with declining ability to deter global conflicts.
  2. The concept of a potential future Global War involving major powers suggests the US may surrender hegemony without a strong fight due to divergent interests among American elites.
  3. Considering the changing dynamics globally, it might be in the US's interest to strategically withdraw from certain regions and relinquish hegemonic power in a controlled manner.

How anomalies drove my social science research

19 implied HN points • 12 Aug 23
🚌 Education History Economics Sociology Politics Research
  1. Anomalies in stock market cycles and economic growth patterns can challenge existing models and lead to new insights.
  2. Exploring how cultural evolution impacts business practices and economic policies can provide a framework for understanding shifts in stock market valuations and economic growth.
  3. Government economic policies influenced by political cultural evolution play a key role in shaping business cultures and impacting economic trends.

A critical review of End Times by Peter Turchin

19 implied HN points • 12 Sep 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Wealth Distribution
  1. Peter Turchin's book 'End Times' discusses the American Crisis, focusing on elite overproduction, popular immiseration, and counter elites challenging the existing order.
  2. Turchin's metaphor of the wealth pump explains how economic profits flow into the stock market, leaving little for real economy investment and leading to popular immiseration.
  3. Turchin's model suggests a resolution to the current crisis should happen soon, requiring actions against the ruling class's interests, with potential for a shift towards right-wing populism as a counter elite movement.

Seven and a half cents

19 implied HN points • 27 Sep 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Social Impact Elite influence
  1. The song 'Seven and a half cents' from the 1954 musical 'Pajama Game' humorously portrayed the impact of a pay increase on workers over time, reflecting the changing economic landscape for working class Americans.
  2. After 1973, the 'rising tide' of economic prosperity ended, leading to a shift in economic policy and an increase in the need for upskilling to maintain living standards, impacting different generations in varied ways.
  3. The analysis of marriage prospects and income growth highlights how economic changes have influenced societal trends, showing disparities in income growth and social outcomes in different eras, emphasizing shifts in economic policy and culture.

How inequality reduction happened 80 years ago

19 implied HN points • 03 Aug 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inequality Economic Policy Political History Taxation Social Policy
  1. Inequality reduction 80 years ago was achieved through a combination of high marginal tax rates, pro-labor policies, and strong economic stimulus.
  2. The handling of economic crises by political elites and the choice of policies played a significant role in resolving the issues without internal conflict.
  3. The alignment of political parties and the evolution of party composition have an impact on the feasibility of implementing policies to address inequality and economic instability.

How going to Green Energy Can Lead to a More Prosperous America

19 implied HN points • 03 Jul 23
🔬 Science Climate Energy Economy Policy Innovation
  1. Addressing climate change with green energy can actually boost economic growth by creating new industries and enlarging the leading sector.
  2. Optimal economic culture, sound policy, and unmet demand are essential for strong economic growth.
  3. Implementing a carbon tax can help shift to green energy and create new leading industries, benefiting the economy in the long run.

What might have been

19 implied HN points • 23 Jun 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Politics Economics History Social Issues Culture
  1. In an alternate history, balancing the budget and preserving gold reserves could have changed the course of US economic and political history, possibly avoiding events like the Vietnam War.
  2. Maintaining a focus on gold reserves and balanced budgets could have led to a different economic landscape, impacting inflation rates, interest rates, and political ideologies.
  3. The continuation of a New Deal economic system with emphasis on fiscal conservatism could have prevented economic crises, income inequality, and cultural shifts, maintaining stability in wages and social structures.

A Simple Math Model for Global Warming

19 implied HN points • 02 Jun 23
🔬 Science
  1. Global warming arises from an imbalance between incoming solar energy and outgoing radiated energy from Earth, affected by properties of the Earth's surface and atmosphere.
  2. Water vapor, clouds, and greenhouse gases all play significant roles in the Earth's average temperature, altering the emissivity and albedo of the planet.
  3. Simple math models can provide insights into climate dynamics, considering factors like the effectiveness of clouds as radiation shields and the impact of increasing greenhouse gases on the Earth's temperature.

How Global Warming Became Scientific Fact

19 implied HN points • 24 May 23
🔬 Science Global Warming Scientific Method Atmospheric science Climate change
  1. The idea of global warming caused by human activities becoming a scientific fact evolved through the cultural evolution process of the scientific method, involving observation, hypothesis testing, and theory formation.
  2. Scientists in the 19th century made key discoveries about radiation and emissions that laid the foundation for understanding the greenhouse effect, and later researchers like Arrhenius and Manabe contributed to the development of climate science.
  3. Measurements and research over time have confirmed predictions about rising CO2 levels and global temperature increase, showcasing the progression of global warming from hypothesis to scientific fact.

Social consequences of economic evolution

19 implied HN points • 02 May 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Racial Disparities Social Issues Cultural Evolution Political Evolution
  1. The economic order impacts social issues such as marriage, incarceration, and education due to cultural evolution.
  2. Declining marriage rates for lower-income men may be linked to lower economic prospects, potentially leading to higher rates of crime.
  3. Black educational attainment and incarceration rates are influenced by factors like economic progress and historical discrimination, showcasing the lasting impact of past policies on present conditions.

A new way to look at inflation (revised)

19 implied HN points • 24 Jan 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The article provides a different perspective on how the American economy evolved post-WW II by blending inflation concepts and looking at economic performance over different eras.
  2. Inflation and its control play a significant role, with the article discussing the Phillips curve and the quantity theory of money in understanding economic changes.
  3. A key trend highlighted is the rise in financial flows out of the real economy in recent decades, impacting inflation control and economic growth by shifting focus towards financial assets over productivity-enhancing capital.

Join me on Notes

0 implied HN points • 03 Jul 23
🕹 Technology Social media Networking Community
  1. Mike Alexander invites readers to join him on Substack Notes for a new way to connect and share content beyond his newsletter.
  2. Subscribers to America in Crisis can automatically view and engage with Mike's notes on the Substack app or the substack.com/notes page.
  3. Readers are encouraged to share their own notes on the platform and create a space for sharing thoughts, ideas, and quotes.

Political perils of economic policy

0 implied HN points • 14 Jul 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Working Class Republican party Inflation
  1. Real wages have not risen as expected under President Biden's economic policies, leading to declining popularity among working-class Americans.
  2. Historical wage trends show a shift in the perceived economic support for working people by political parties.
  3. Democrats face challenges in translating economic gains into benefits for workers due to the primary focus on growing shareholders' equity in the modern economy.

Future prospects in a secular cycle crisis

0 implied HN points • 12 Apr 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Crisis Inflation Stock Market Economic Policy Political parties
  1. The US is experiencing a crisis similar to historical patterns of great nations, but this time, the crises may not be resolved in the same dramatic ways due to modern circumstances like interventions by economic policymakers.
  2. Civil strife in America may resemble the Troubles in Northern Ireland, but the country's size and past responses to radical movements indicate that major turmoil might not lead to political revolution.
  3. The current economic focus is on inflation, with predictions indicating that actions like interest rate adjustments could impact the economy by fall and potentially lead to a soft landing, altering the investment environment.

Introducing Mike’s Substack

0 implied HN points • 23 Jan 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics History Economics Community Discussion
  1. Mike Alexander is a retired industrial scientist with a focus on 'big history' and the American political economy.
  2. He is particularly interested in studying the postwar era of shared prosperity in America and understanding why it occurred and ended.
  3. Mike aims to promote his book 'America in Crisis' through his free Substack by sharing articles on economic, political, and social topics related to the book and fostering a community for discussion.

Coming soon

0 implied HN points • 21 Jan 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Crisis
  1. Mike Alexander is launching a new Substack newsletter called Coming Soon
  2. The newsletter focuses on America in Crisis
  3. Readers can subscribe and stay updated on this upcoming newsletter

Why America doesn't build things

0 implied HN points • 05 Mar 23
💼 Business Economics Policy Culture Government Finance
  1. Economic policy changes in the 1970s and 1980s have shifted business culture, discouraging investment in real projects.
  2. NIMBY opposition to development is a significant obstacle to building urgently needed infrastructure in the US.
  3. We need to restore a culture focused on accumulating 'real' capital to encourage building and infrastructure development.

Will hegemonic war end the American crisis?

0 implied HN points • 19 Apr 23
🌍 World Politics International relations Hegemony Conflict Military Strategy
  1. The analysis suggests a potential Civil War II may loom if significant moves don't happen by 2040 to prevent the political defeat of the 'Red' faction.
  2. Large-scale war, like a conflict with China, could challenge the current neoliberal order and require a shift in economic priorities, potentially leading to the end of inflation control via financial flows.
  3. The interplay between hegemonic powers and the potential for a global war phase could force American elites to choose between pursuing hegemony or maintaining the neoliberal order, with significant implications for the future.

Extension of inflation model before 1948

0 implied HN points • 07 Feb 23
💰 Finance Inflation Balance Economic Policy
  1. The historical analysis shows how money flows, such as trade surpluses and fiscal deficits, can impact inflation and economic stability.
  2. The gold standard had a notable impact on economic conditions, causing deflation and influencing policies like interest rates and money supply.
  3. Active economic policy interventions, like wage and price controls during wartime, demonstrated effectiveness in controlling inflation and stabilizing the economy.

An Introduction to Leading Sectors

0 implied HN points • 15 May 23
💼 Business Economic Growth Market Dynamics Industry Analysis
  1. Strong economic growth requires both optimal policy and ample opportunities for growth in leading sectors.
  2. Innovation cycles in the economy follow phases like growth, maturity, and shakeout, impacting industries such as broadcasting and auto manufacturing.
  3. Leading sectors of the economy play a crucial role in the rise of hegemonic powers, with innovation waves shaping economic dominance over time.

The Debt Crisis

0 implied HN points • 15 Jun 23
💰 Finance Debt crisis Inflation Economic Growth Tax policy
  1. The debt crisis in the West is seen as a necessary and inevitable event that will lead to major global restructuring.
  2. The rise of speculative and Ponzi finance units in the economy increases the likelihood of a financial crisis, as seen in historical examples like the 2008 Great Recession.
  3. To move towards a more stable economic future, a shift towards stakeholder capitalism culture, high taxes on the wealthy, and internal financing mechanisms like QE may be necessary.

Stock market paradigms

0 implied HN points • 21 Feb 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Market Analysis Stock Valuation Financial Policy
  1. Stock market valuation tools need to evolve with changing market paradigms, as seen with the shift in P/R values over time
  2. The emergence of new market paradigms, like one that disconnects stock market value from underlying company value, can impact stock market behavior
  3. Historically, stock market paradigms have shifted based on economic cultures and policy changes, influencing investor behavior and market trends