The hottest Public Opinion Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top U.S. Politics Topics

Comparing Free Expression On Campus v. Off

Symbolic Capital(ism) • 0 implied HN points • 19 Apr 19
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Free speech Censorship Public Opinion Political Bias
  1. College students are more likely to self-censor and support censoring others, despite being in environments meant for free thinking and expression.
  2. Conservative students often fear being graded harshly for their political views, leading to self-censorship, although evidence of actual grading discrimination is lacking.
  3. Students feel less comfortable discussing social issues, even academic topics, on campus compared to the general public, and they tend to support censorship across various issues.

Sex differences, lizardmen and twitter polls

Unconfusion • 0 implied HN points • 20 Nov 23
🎭️ Culture Gender Issues Social media Public Opinion Data Analysis
  1. Twitter polls can give misleading results because they often attract random and unserious responses. Many people might just click an answer without thinking deeply about it.
  2. The audience for these polls usually skews heavily male, which can affect the results, especially when asking controversial questions. This makes it hard to understand the true opinions of the general population.
  3. Despite being for fun, these polls can create misconceptions about gender differences and opinions. Many people interpret the results as more significant than they really are.

A Critique of Bryan Caplan

Something to Consider • 0 implied HN points • 08 Mar 22
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Debate Political theory Public Opinion Effective Altruism Social Issues
  1. It's important to focus on convincing people about policies rather than creating divisions. If the goal is to help the poor, we shouldn't insult those who disagree with us.
  2. Critiquing others can be done without undermining the main message. Avoiding unnecessary negative comments can help keep the conversation productive.
  3. Sharing ideas should be done in a way that allows for open discussion, especially with those who may disagree. This helps everyone consider different viewpoints.

Not Your Father's Impeachment Inquiry

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 01 Oct 19
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Impeachment Elections Congress Political strategy Public Opinion
  1. Control of Congress is divided between the parties, which affects how the impeachment inquiry unfolds. The Senate can influence the process even if the House decides to impeach.
  2. Trump is running for re-election, which changes the political strategy of the impeachment process. Both parties may act differently based on how it impacts the election.
  3. Moderate Senate Republicans hold significant power, potentially swaying the outcome of the impeachment process based on their support or opposition to Trump. Their decisions could change everything.

Let's Get Ready To Rumble

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 17 May 19
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Congress Executive Power Constitutional Law Political Conflict Public Opinion
  1. Political conflict is normal in a democracy, and we shouldn't be afraid of it. The U.S. system encourages disagreements between branches of government as a way to check power.
  2. Congress has the most control and authority, but it often faces challenges in maintaining that power. It can keep the president in check, but it struggles to fund itself properly.
  3. Public opinion is very important in political battles. Congress and the president respond to public views, using them to gain support or avoid backlash when pushing their agendas.
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So you want to be an amateur election forecaster? Here's step zero.

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 31 Oct 18
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election forecasting Public Opinion Voting behavior Statistical Analysis
  1. You can start forecasting elections easily using a simple Excel simulation tool. Just change the win probabilities for Senate races, and the simulation will quickly show you different election outcomes.
  2. Good election forecasting requires gathering data and creating win probabilities, which can be a fun challenge. Getting started is much easier than you might think, so don't be intimidated.
  3. While simple models are easy to run, accurate forecasting can be more complex. Serious models account for many details in how elections work, but you can still enjoy basic modeling without being an expert.

Matt's Five Points, October 12, 2018 — The Kavanaugh Circus is Democracy in Action

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 16 Oct 18
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Party Dynamics Public Opinion
  1. The Senate confirmation process can show democratic politics really happening. It's normal for people to clash and for the public to get involved, so calling it a circus might not be fair.
  2. Term limits for the Supreme Court could actually make things more political, not less. If every election focused on Court nominations, it could overshadow other important issues.
  3. When looking at polling data, it's tricky to connect it directly to elections. Just because many people oppose something doesn't mean they'll vote based on that issue.

FIVE POINTS: The Kavanaugh Circus was Democracy in Action

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 11 Oct 18
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Supreme Court Political parties Public Opinion Government Structure
  1. The Kavanaugh confirmation process showed how democracy works, with politicians and the public engaging in debates about policy. It was messy but that's a normal part of politics.
  2. Polling opinions on issues don't always predict how people will vote. It's more about how those views impact the political behavior of voters, which can be complex.
  3. In elections, the dynamics between the House and Senate can differ greatly. Different strategies work for each, and national issues can sometimes hurt certain candidates more than help them.

The SCOTUS Nomination, Senate Procedure, and Democratic Strategy

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 28 Jun 18
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Supreme Court Senate Legislation Political strategy Public Opinion
  1. Democrats can't block a Supreme Court nominee like Republicans did with Garland because they don't have a majority in the Senate. This means they can't stop the nomination process directly.
  2. If Democrats want to slow down the Senate's work to increase the costs of a nomination, they would need to use complicated strategies like dragging out debates or refusing to agree on routine procedures. However, this is likely to backfire politically.
  3. Since they probably can't stop the nomination, Democrats will likely focus on shaping public opinion and preparing for future elections rather than trying to defeat the nominee outright.

AUMFs, Status-Quo Bias, and Congressional Power

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 19 Apr 18
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics War Powers Military Action Legal issues Public Opinion
  1. Warmaking is mostly a political issue, not a legal one. Courts usually avoid deciding if a war is legal, leaving it to Congress and the President to argue.
  2. Congress still plays an important role in war decisions, even if presidents sometimes act alone. A lack of congressional support can limit the scale of military actions.
  3. The U.S. Constitution favors keeping things the same, making it hard to change or limit presidential powers once granted. To help Congress keep control, war authorizations should have expiration clauses to reassess their necessity regularly.

FIVE POINTS: Shut the Front Door

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 19 Jan 18
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Legislation Political parties Public Opinion Congress
  1. A government shutdown doesn’t completely stop operations, but it does freeze funding for salaries and expenditures. The government can make contracts but can't pay for them without proper funding.
  2. The Democrats are hesitant to filibuster because they don't want to take the blame for a shutdown. If they see that the Republican side can muster enough votes, they might just go along and support the bill.
  3. Polling on issues like DACA can be misleading. Just because a lot of people support an idea doesn't mean it will help a politician's approval rating because many voters care about different issues when voting.

FIVE POINTS: End of Session Blues

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 21 Dec 17
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Congress Government Political parties Public Opinion
  1. The House GOP is facing challenges with the end-of-session spending bills and may need Democratic votes to pass them. They have to deal with different issues like health care and disaster relief all at once.
  2. They often use previously passed bills as vehicles for new funding to simplify the legislative process. This helps avoid certain delays and gives them a bit more control over the outcome.
  3. In 2018, the GOP might find it hard to pass new legislation, and they're likely to focus on big issues they've postponed. There's a chance for conflict over things like infrastructure since Democrats may want more favorable conditions.

FIVE POINTS: Make DACA Great Again

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 15 Sep 17
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Political strategy Public Opinion Legislation
  1. Trump's new DACA position could be popular but might also upset his Republican supporters. This situation may weaken his ties with the GOP even if the public likes the idea.
  2. Just because a policy is popular doesn't mean it will boost a politician's approval. It's important to know how many people actually change their opinion based on that policy.
  3. The House Freedom Caucus might reflect a historical trend of factions within political parties. They're working outside normal party lines to push their agenda.

At the corner of East Capitol and 1st Street NW

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 26 Mar 12
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Protests Supreme Court Civil Rights Media influence Public Opinion
  1. Protests in front of the Supreme Court can feel underwhelming. Many times, there are not enough demonstrators, and the scene can be pretty calm and quiet.
  2. Protesting at the Court is a bit strange because the Court doesn't really listen to public opinion like Congress does. Most protesters seem to be trying to get media attention rather than influence the justices directly.
  3. The layout of the Supreme Court plaza is great for protests, but people can't use it because of rules. Instead, protests end up on the sidewalk, making them less impactful than they could be.

No Sense in Fighting This Meme...

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 16 Feb 12
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political theory Public Opinion Civic engagement Political Behavior
  1. Memes are powerful and can spread quickly. It's often better to embrace them than to fight against them.
  2. Trying to resist a popular meme can lead to more negativity. It's usually a waste of energy to push back.
  3. Understanding and engaging with memes can lead to better communication and connection with others. It's important to be aware of their impact.

Reading Week

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 10 Dec 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Politicians Policies Public Opinion Political Commentary
  1. Populist technocrats like Newt Gingrich can have serious challenges in winning nominations and executing reforms due to various political dynamics.
  2. The way we donate to charities matters; cash donations are often more useful than giving canned goods.
  3. Understanding political trends, like how demographics affect election outcomes, is crucial for making sense of candidate performances.

Debate Q&A on 'ObamaCare'

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 10 Nov 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Health care Legislation Political Rhetoric Public Opinion
  1. The term 'Obamacare' was used 11 times in a debate, mainly by certain candidates and the moderator. It shows how often political terms can come up in discussions.
  2. Using 'Obamacare' can be seen as a biased term since it carries a negative connotation for many. It's better for debate moderators to use neutral language to avoid influencing the conversation.
  3. Language really matters in politics. The way we describe laws and policies can affect how people feel about them, so it's important to choose words carefully.

Required Reading

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 30 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Public Opinion Media Critique Political theory
  1. Drew Westen's piece in the New York Times received a lot of criticism for being inaccurate. It's important to check facts when discussing political topics.
  2. Many people, including John Sides and Jon Bernstein, have shared their thoughts against Westen's views. Different perspectives can help us understand the bigger picture.
  3. Matt Glassman aims to add his own analysis of Westen's understanding of politics. Sharing opinions is key to engaging discussions about political ideas.

Slim and none, and slim just wrote a Times op-ed

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 27 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Polling Public Opinion
  1. When discussing a candidate's chance of winning, it's important to avoid extreme statements like 'no chance.' It's better to recognize that while a candidate may be unlikely to win, they still have some chance.
  2. Polling numbers can be misleading, and it's important to consider the candidate's fundamentals, like their overall support and viability.
  3. Making bets or challenges can highlight different perspectives on a candidate's chances, but sometimes it's just a matter of semantics and how we interpret the odds.

Flattened

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 25 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Tax policy Political theory Government reform Taxation Public Opinion
  1. Flat tax proposals often benefit the rich and hurt the middle class, making them unpopular and unlikely to pass.
  2. Simplicity in taxes doesn't only come from a flat tax; current tax systems can also be simplified without losing their structure.
  3. A progressive tax with fewer brackets and no deductions could be as simple as a flat tax and might be more widely accepted.

On political information

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 22 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior Political media Election Strategy Public Opinion Political Analysis
  1. In any democracy, some voters know more about politics than others. These are known as sophisticated voters and normal voters.
  2. Getting political information has become much easier in recent years. With so many sources available, anyone can find news and analysis about politics.
  3. More people seem to be thinking about politics in strategic ways, like a campaign manager, rather than just reacting to what candidates say. This change might make politics feel more complex and less accessible for everyday voters.

A House Divided

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 20 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political History Political strategy Public Opinion Economic Policy Election Dynamics
  1. Lincoln faced a divided nation and had to adjust his views, ultimately moving towards abolishing slavery when public sentiment shifted. Obama is in a tough spot because he doesn't have a clear, unilateral action like the Emancipation Proclamation to tackle today's issues.
  2. The call for Obama to adopt more aggressive leftist policies, like higher taxes on the wealthy, might not actually resolve underlying economic problems. It's important to recognize that such actions alone won't fix the economy or reduce unemployment significantly.
  3. Moving to the left could risk alienating moderate voters and lead to more gridlock in government. Lincoln was a savvy politician who adapted to his situation, and it's unclear if moving left is the best strategy for Obama as he approaches upcoming elections.

Sunday whimsy: political conversations with my family

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 16 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Discourse Elections Public Opinion Family Dynamics Civic engagement
  1. Talking about politics can start from a young age, as shown when children ask questions about leaders and elections.
  2. Family members can have very different opinions on political candidates, leading to interesting discussions.
  3. Conversations about politics often mix humor and serious views, showing how families navigate differing beliefs.

On a common Senate fallacy

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 11 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Public Opinion Representation Elections
  1. The Senate doesn't always reflect public opinion because it's malapportioned. This means the number of senators from each state doesn't match the population size.
  2. Even when senators follow their own constituents' opinions, the overall Senate vote can still differ from national views. The structure of the Senate makes this difference more likely.
  3. It's a mistake to assume that senators are going against their constituents just because their votes don't align with national public opinion. The Senate was designed differently, so it can lead to this disconnect.

Research Note: On writing your congressman

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 26 Sep 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Political Communication Civic engagement Public Opinion
  1. The internet has changed how Congress works by making information fast and accessible. Now, people can feel more involved in the decision-making process because news spreads quickly.
  2. Emails to Congress have greatly increased since 2002, while traditional postal mail has decreased. This shows that people prefer emailing their representatives over sending letters.
  3. The volume of emails spikes from 2007 onwards due to issues with spam. There hasn't been much data before 1998, but we know emails have become the main way to contact lawmakers.

Debate Post-Mortem

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 13 Sep 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Strategy Public Opinion Media influence
  1. The debate format was seen as tiring and not effective, especially with live voter questions feeling forced and unproductive. Many viewers preferred more direct, engaging interactions between candidates instead.
  2. Romney and Perry are the main contenders in the race, with Romney appealing to the strategic thinkers while Perry connects more emotionally with conservative voters. Their strategies are shaping the primary outcomes significantly.
  3. Perry struggled to respond effectively to certain controversial topics, indicating he needs stronger messaging to maintain his support. His missteps could benefit Romney as the race progresses.

Seeing Like a Party

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 07 Sep 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis Political Behavior Party Dynamics Public Opinion
  1. Members of Congress usually focus on three main goals: getting re-elected, gaining power, and making good laws. Often, re-election is the top priority because it allows them to achieve the other two.
  2. Political parties can sometimes take risks by supporting policies that might hurt them in the short term. Unlike individual members, parties can survive losses and hope to regain power later, which may lead them to make different decisions.
  3. There's a trend in how people view party success, with a focus mainly on winning elections. This mindset ignores the importance of long-term policy goals, which can be more beneficial for the party's future.

Poelittlekul EKonnome

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 08 Aug 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Market Reaction Economic Policy Public Opinion
  1. When someone says a market movement was 'obvious,' they are probably not telling the truth. People who can predict the market usually keep quiet about it and don't broadcast their insights.
  2. Most market predictions you see on TV are not very reliable. The market is pretty efficient, and the news often just reflects what is already known, not new information.
  3. Political explanations for events like market downgrades can be confusing and often contradict each other. Different sides blame each other without clear logic.

On the idea of "anti-incumbency"

Matt’s Five Points • 0 implied HN points • 18 May 10
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Political parties Public Opinion Campaign Strategy
  1. There's a lot of talk about anti-incumbency, but it might not be the right term for what's happening. Many races don't even have incumbents, which makes it hard to really call it anti-incumbent sentiment.
  2. Sometimes, it looks like people are more upset with political ideologies rather than just incumbents themselves. Candidates may lose because voters prefer different policies, not just because they're incumbents.
  3. A real anti-incumbent wave would mean voters are unhappy with both parties equally, leading to a big shakeup in Congress. However, it seems like dissatisfaction often targets the party in power instead, which doesn't fit the anti-incumbent idea.

How America Got Into This Omnishambles

Yascha Mounk • 0 implied HN points • 28 Jun 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Candidates Political parties Public Opinion Government
  1. Many Democrats made a big mistake thinking that loud opinions on Twitter reflected what most voters really wanted. This led them to ignore the average person's views and stick to extreme ideas.
  2. Joe Biden's choice of Kamala Harris as vice president was focused more on demographics than qualifications. This decision has left them with a leader who is struggling to connect with the public.
  3. Key figures in the Democratic Party have avoided discussing Biden's declining mental fitness until now. They must face hard truths and not just go along with popular opinion to move forward effectively.

What Britain’s Next Leader Can Teach Joe Biden

Yascha Mounk • 0 implied HN points • 24 May 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Ideology Leadership Political parties Public Opinion
  1. Keir Starmer successfully distanced himself from the far-left elements of his party, gaining public trust. This shows voters appreciate leaders who can manage internal party factions responsibly.
  2. Joe Biden has faced challenges by not clearly separating himself from the activist wing of his party. This approach may leave voters feeling uncertain about his leadership amid competition from Donald Trump.
  3. In politics, being willing to break away from unpopular party segments can be crucial. Both Starmer and Biden's contrasting strategies reveal how internal party dynamics can significantly impact their public perception and electoral success.

The insanity of the US tax code: Bad Laws and Predictable Consequences

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 01 Aug 14
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Taxation Legislation Corporate Policy Economic Policy Public Opinion
  1. The US tax code encourages companies to move their operations overseas because it taxes their global income. This creates a situation where they might keep cash trapped in foreign countries to avoid extra taxes.
  2. Many US companies are generating more revenue from outside the US, making it tempting for them to relocate to countries with lower tax rates. This trend leads to billions in cash being held abroad instead of being invested back in the US.
  3. Some suggested solutions to the tax issue could make things worse instead of better. It's important to create a fair tax system that makes sense for today's global economy, not just punish companies for trying to minimize their tax payments.

The Buffett Plan: An apt name for a sanctimonious, hypocritical and superficial proposal

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 22 Sep 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Tax policy Economic issues Public Opinion Political critique
  1. The Buffett tax plan seems noble, but it may really just be a way to make millionaires feel good about paying taxes. It's suggesting the wealthy can afford more taxes, but the details aren't clear.
  2. There are accusations of hypocrisy towards Buffett because he talks about fairness while his company's structure doesn't always match that. Some believe the idea that millionaires dodge taxes is oversimplified.
  3. The tax plan lacks important specifics, which makes it hard to understand. Critics say it doesn't really solve tax issues, and may even complicate the tax system further.

Writing in the Chaos

The Fairest Writer • 0 implied HN points • 13 Oct 20
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Activism Journalism Social media Public Opinion
  1. Social media can be a big distraction when trying to focus on long-term writing projects. It's okay to step back from it to focus better on important work.
  2. There's a balance between using your voice for immediate causes on social media and dedicating time to longer writing goals. It's important to find what works for you.
  3. Getting involved in community efforts, like text-banking, can help make a difference while you're working on personal projects. Being active in other ways is also valuable.

A Note on the U.S. Election

TOP SECRET UMBRA • 0 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political crisis Voting Counterintelligence Public Opinion
  1. The U.S. election could end in three ways: a close win for Harris, a close win for Trump, or a big win for Trump. It's still too soon to know exactly what will happen.
  2. There's a risk of a political mess if vote counting takes too long, especially if the election is close. This could lead to a lot of confusion and conflict.
  3. Election day is almost here, and it's important for everyone to get ready for whatever happens next. It’s a dramatic time in politics.

I told you so

Numb at the Lodge • 0 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Public Opinion Campaigns Democracy
  1. There are two main groups in American politics: one that is educated and informed, and another that is often seen as less informed. This divide affects who wins elections.
  2. Kamala Harris, while politically skilled, failed to connect with voters, which led to her loss. The Democratic Party didn't pick a strong candidate to face Trump.
  3. People feel forced to choose between candidates, often leading to dissatisfaction. Many voters believe they are stuck in a bad situation without real options.

Predictions for a Trump presidency

Tolu’s Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 09 Apr 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Leadership Policy Public Opinion Political History
  1. Predictions about Trump often missed how much of an impact he would have on domestic policy. Many thought he wouldn’t be able to change much due to resistance from both parties, but he actually had significant support from his followers.
  2. Trump's presidency could redefine international relations. His approach might lead to a more isolationist America, which would shift power dynamics around the world as other countries adapt.
  3. It's important to be cautious when making predictions, especially in politics. Past assumptions about party politics may not hold true, and factors like grassroots support can greatly influence outcomes.