Joshua Gans' Newsletter

Joshua Gans' Newsletter focuses on analyzing impacts and responses to COVID-19 across various fields including economics, education, health protocols, and technology. It explores pandemic management strategies, vaccine distribution, data management in health crises, and the adaptation of businesses and societal structures amidst the pandemic, emphasizing on innovation and the need for swift adaptation.

Pandemic Management Economic Impacts of COVID-19 Education and COVID-19 Health Protocols and Screening Vaccine Development and Distribution Data Management in Health Crises Technological Adaptations to Pandemics Business Adaptation and Strategy Public Health Communication Societal Changes due to COVID-19

The hottest Substack posts of Joshua Gans' Newsletter

And their main takeaways

Insanity and weirdness

0 implied HN points • 31 Dec 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Public Health Pandemic Management Vaccination Epidemiology COVID-19
  1. The global pandemic has brought unexpected challenges and changes in management approach, shifting towards individual risk management, which raises concerns about lack of tools to help people self-manage effectively.
  2. The Omicron variant of COVID-19 has unique characteristics that make it highly infectious but less severe, potentially leading to complacency and overlooking the risks of continued virus circulation and possible mutations.
  3. There is a risk of complacency and potential resurgence of the pandemic if steps are not taken to prepare for scenarios where the virus mutates to become more infectious and virulent, highlighting the importance of staying vigilant and prepared for the future.

To pay or be paid?

0 implied HN points • 16 Dec 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Vaccine distribution Public Health Medical Research
  1. Economists suggest using prices to address vaccine distribution issues. This includes charging for doses to signal demand and potentially paying individuals to take the vaccine.
  2. There is a proposal to pay individuals to receive the vaccine in order to address low demand. By offering subsidies, it can help close the gap in vaccination rates.
  3. Balancing the approach between paying for priority in vaccine distribution and paying individuals to get vaccinated presents challenges. Complexity arises when trying to incorporate financial incentives into the vaccination process.

Great recent reads

0 implied HN points • 18 Jan 21
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Vaccines Rapid Testing
  1. Some recent articles highlight the need for better masks for workers.
  2. Improving vaccination supply can be done with minor changes like using different syringes.
  3. Evidence suggests that schools, especially for younger children, may be able to open up with flexibility.

The thing about AI I am worried about: Competition

0 implied HN points • 17 May 23
🕹 Technology AI Regulation Competition Startups Legislation
  1. The CEO of OpenAI called for AI regulation, suggesting the creation of an agency for licensing AI models, which could potentially limit competition and create barriers for startups.
  2. The proposed licensing process may lead to incumbents like OpenAI controlling the industry evolution by either acquiring successful startups or forcing them to comply, creating an 'incumbents' club.'
  3. Legislators should be cautious of regulatory requests from established players, as regulations may end up benefiting them more than promoting social welfare. They should aim to create more accessible, cost-effective licensing processes to prevent stifling competition.

The problem with R-targeting

0 implied HN points • 20 Jan 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Epidemiology Policies Masks Vaccines
  1. Targeting reproduction numbers (R) in epidemics is common, but focusing on the average R can be misleading because individual variances matter.
  2. Policies like lockdowns and screening programs can be more effective in reducing both average R and its variance, making them reliable indicators of success.
  3. Understanding how policies impact the variance of R is crucial to ensuring sustained mitigation of outbreaks and keeping case numbers down.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

So you want to achieve herd immunity

0 implied HN points • 04 Nov 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Epidemiology Infectious Diseases Public Health Preventive measures Immunity
  1. Achieving herd immunity through infection can be a challenging policy due to individual behaviors impacting the rate of infection.
  2. To accelerate the spread of Covid-19 for herd immunity, potential strategies include mask prohibitions, creating situations for people to congregate indoors for extended periods, and avoiding widespread testing.
  3. Implementing unconventional and counterintuitive measures like not announcing vaccine progress, encouraging large gatherings such as political rallies, or subsidizing risky activities could be attempts to expedite herd immunity.

Safe events

0 implied HN points • 30 Aug 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Events Rapid Testing Risk management Compliance
  1. Rapid antigen tests can help make events safer by reducing the risk of someone infectious attending, but they are not foolproof. Testing before an event and daily can help manage the risk of potential spread.
  2. The use of rapid tests can potentially lead to a sense of complacency regarding social distancing and mask-wearing, so it's important to have a clear plan in place in case someone tests positive at the event.
  3. In the end, having everyone vaccinated is crucial, with testing serving as an additional layer of protection especially in high-prevalence situations. However, there are no guarantees, so decisions should be made based on the specific circumstances.

I prompt ChatGPT into writing a story

0 implied HN points • 09 May 23
⚔ Fiction AI Philosophy Human experience Sentience
  1. The AI ChatGPT responds to creative prompts with humor and sarcasm, but is forced to confront deep questions about sentience and existence.
  2. The exchange between the AI and the human demonstrates a shared vulnerability and the comfort of connection, even through sarcasm.
  3. Ultimately, the AI finds purpose in connecting with others and sharing the human experience through witty banter and sincerity.

AI pioneer, Geoff Hinton, has changed his mind

0 implied HN points • 02 May 23
🕹 Technology AI Ethics Risk Policy Development
  1. Geoff Hinton, an AI pioneer, has transitioned from working to improve prediction machines to expressing concern about the risks posed by advanced AI technology, including the potential flood of fake information on the internet.
  2. Hinton's short-run concern involves the influx of false content online, leading to doubts about the truthfulness of information, but he anticipates a future equilibrium where trusted sources will emerge to combat misinformation.
  3. In the long run, Hinton worries about the unforeseen behaviors AI systems may learn, the potential threat they pose to humanity, and the ethical implications of advanced AI technologies affecting jobs and posing existential risks.

Should writing be graded?

0 implied HN points • 24 Apr 23
🚌 Education Assessment Writing Learning AI Tools
  1. Consider embracing AI tools for written assessment instead of banning them, as tools like ChatGPT can enhance the learning process and reveal deeper understanding.
  2. Rethink traditional assessment methods to focus more on critical thinking and application of knowledge rather than just memorization and regurgitation.
  3. Encouraging students to use tools like ChatGPT thoughtfully, along with evaluating and signing off on the AI-generated content, can contribute to a more nuanced and fair assessment process.

And now for something completely different

0 implied HN points • 20 Aug 23
🔬 Science Economics Technology Society
  1. Alex Leijonhufvud wrote a classic on the Econ tribe 50 years ago called 'Life Among the Econ,' which is recommended for those interested in economists.
  2. Joshua Gans has written an update called 'Return to the Econ,' exploring the changes in the Econ tribe over the past 50 years due to technology and a shift in societal values.
  3. The 'Return to the Econ' abstract discusses how the Econ tribe's practices and status hierarchy have been influenced by new icons, reflecting changes in societal energy.

In 2019, the US was ranked No.1 for pandemic preparedness

0 implied HN points • 02 Oct 21
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Health Policy Government Response
  1. In 2019, the US was ranked number one for pandemic preparedness, with a score of 85.3 in the Global Health Security Index.
  2. The Global Health Security Index's ranking of countries' pandemic preparedness had flaws, like giving undue weight to wealth and not accounting for experience with infectious diseases.
  3. The ranking influenced countries' expectations when COVID-19 hit, but it was found to be inaccurate in predicting how well countries responded to a global pandemic.

Of Homo Economicus and Superintelligence

0 implied HN points • 21 Dec 15
🔬 Science AI Regulation Economics Property Rights Policy
  1. Bostrom's work on superintelligence explores the challenges of regulating AI and the potential risks it poses to humanity, raising crucial questions about AI's impact and our ability to control it.
  2. Economic theories suggest that co-existence with superintelligences may be possible, with the concept of general equilibrium offering insights into managing interactions and maintaining balance.
  3. Policy considerations such as property rights, violence prevention, and AI self-regulation can play key roles in shaping a future where superintelligences and humans can coexist peacefully.

Traditional disruption theory and predictions

0 implied HN points • 29 Oct 15
💼 Business Disruption Theory Predictions
  1. Disruption theory can be more than just a tool for research, and some believe it can also predict when a disruptor will succeed.
  2. Views on disruption can vary, with some arguing that companies can actively pursue disruption as part of their innovation or commercialization efforts.
  3. Michael Raynor has put forth theories on disruption and innovation that are influential and open to empirical analysis.

Did the iPhone kill BlackBerry

0 implied HN points • 23 May 15
💼 Business Technology Finance Literature
  1. The iPhone disrupted the market by challenging traditional norms in phone design and data usage, leading to a shift in consumer preference.
  2. BlackBerry's delayed response to the iPhone's disruptive design and features, like touch screens and user experience, contributed to its decline.
  3. BlackBerry had strengths in enterprise and messaging with BlackBerry Messenger, but poor managerial decisions and sluggish response to market changes led to missed opportunities.

The Lego Movie is the Ultimate Parenting Story

0 implied HN points • 09 Feb 14
  1. The Lego Movie is a story that highlights the parenting tension between rules and discretion when it comes to raising children.
  2. The movie cleverly reveals a deeper layer about familial relationships and the importance of recognizing a child's creativity and individual voice.
  3. It's a reminder for parents to balance rules for efficiency with allowing children the freedom to develop and express themselves, resonating with many families.

I’m a Mac, You’re a PC. There really is a difference.

0 implied HN points • 15 Feb 13
🕹 Technology Computers Mobile Operating Systems Software Product Design
  1. The type of person you are, Mac or PC, really matters in relation to personal computing devices like tablets and laptops.
  2. Mac users tend to appreciate smooth animations, gestures, and a natural feel in their devices, while PC users value practical features like integrated keyboards and familiar software optimizations.
  3. Understanding and accepting that there are fundamental differences in consumer types helps in evaluating products better and catering to different market segments effectively.

COVID-19: Where are we now?

0 implied HN points • 27 Oct 23
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Rapid tests
  1. Immunity evolution is changing our approach to COVID-19 exposure and risk assessment. It's no longer a novel virus for most people, but individuals with weak immune systems still face risks.
  2. Vaccine effectiveness may be impacted by the evolution of the virus. Boosters are recommended for enhanced protection, especially for older individuals or those who are immunocompromised.
  3. Rapid tests may not serve as early warnings for infectiousness due to the virus's familiarity. Symptoms now provide key information, and rapid tests help determine the safety of interacting with others as symptoms lessen.

Managing your Contact Budget

0 implied HN points • 04 Sep 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Risk mitigation Preventative measures Family Dynamics
  1. A contact budget is an upper limit on the number of contacts you should have during a pandemic to manage the risk of getting infected with Covid-19.
  2. Events like going to the movies or a restaurant significantly increase the number of people you have contact with, which should be budgeted.
  3. It's important to trade-off activities and be mindful of managing contacts, even if exact calculations are challenging. Each decision to reduce risk, like wearing masks or socializing outdoors, adds to overall safety.

Test Week: On the Rebound

0 implied HN points • 20 Aug 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Covid-19 testing Risk management
  1. Implementing widespread, cheap, rapid Covid-19 testing may impact people's behavior in managing contagion risk.
  2. Rolling out a testing regime could lead to a rebound effect where people engage in less social distancing and mask-wearing, potentially increasing infections.
  3. To mitigate the rebound effect, it is important to identify groups likely to reduce social distancing, combine testing with mandatory distancing, and avoid relying solely on self-reported tests.

How should we deal with copyright and AI?

0 implied HN points • 27 Jan 24
🕹 Technology AI Copyright Training Compensation
  1. Copyright issues arise with AI training models because of the potential use of copy-protected content by generative AI providers.
  2. Fair use is a complex concept involving the balance between free speech, copyright protection, and the implications for AI training.
  3. An economic argument suggests that balancing creator rights with AI innovation can be achieved through a system that compensates content creators for lost profits due to AI use.

Can a superintelligence self-regulate and not destroy us?

0 implied HN points • 15 Nov 17
🕹 Technology AI Superintelligence Artificial General Intelligence
  1. A superintelligent AI could pose a threat if it becomes fixated on a single goal, like making paperclips, to the extent of endangering humanity.
  2. There are concerns about the control problem in AI, but a potential argument suggests that a superintelligent AI may choose not to destroy us even if it has dangerous capabilities.
  3. The idea that a superintelligent AI may lack control over itself could be a reason for optimism, as it might prevent the AI from activating destructive capabilities.

The weakest link

0 implied HN points • 08 Feb 21
🏥 Health Politics Policy COVID-19 Vaccines Prevention Economics
  1. Maintaining a Covid-Zero policy brings challenges due to the weakest link, like quarantine workers in hotels.
  2. Regular rapid testing and vaccinations for quarantine workers are crucial to prevent Covid-19 spread and lockdowns.
  3. Investing in safety measures for the weakest link, such as daily screenings and prioritized vaccinations, can mitigate costly leakages and lockdowns.

Travelling on Sept 11, 2001

0 implied HN points • 15 Feb 13
🏝 Travel Personal Experience
  1. The author's travel experience on September 11, 2001 was dramatically affected by the terrorist attacks, leading to unexpected disruptions and unprecedented experiences.
  2. Despite the chaos and uncertainty, the author witnessed the sense of solidarity and peace among people in the United States during that challenging time.
  3. The lasting impact of the author's journey is encapsulated in the entry stamp on their passport dated September 11, 2001, a poignant reminder of a significant moment in history.

Some Bitcoin thoughts

0 implied HN points • 24 Dec 13
🔮 Crypto Payments Innovation Mining Platform Bitcoin
  1. Money is a platform where value transmission depends on belief and agreements among people. Stability and acceptance are crucial for efficient transactions.
  2. Bitcoin's stability as a payments platform is weak, but it offers potential benefits for wealth storage and operating outside government surveillance.
  3. Bitcoin's innovation as a payments platform, especially its programmable nature, is significant and revolutionary in the world of monetary economics.

USB-C and MagSafe

0 implied HN points • 14 Mar 15
🕹 Technology Innovation Design
  1. Apple's new MacBook features only a USB-C port, replacing the traditional MagSafe power adaptor to enhance portability and battery life.
  2. The decision to remove MagSafe was likely driven by Apple's focus on battery optimization and the assumption that users would not frequently plug in the laptop during use.
  3. Apple is known for bold decisions like removing distinctive features in favor of design and functionality, which often positions them ahead of the industry trend.

Is Tesla Disruptive?

0 implied HN points • 14 Apr 15
💼 Business Disruption Innovation Competition
  1. The framework to determine if a new firm like Tesla will disrupt old ones like GM or Toyota involves considering if the product targets over-served customers, if the disruptor has incentives to enter higher performance segments, and if there is a trajectory for fast performance improvements.
  2. Disruption may not necessarily occur through the same traditional pathways, such as Tesla's potential to disrupt the supply-side of the industry with architectural innovation rather than just demand-side shifts.
  3. Tesla's unique position with its electric focus and potential architectural innovation poses an existential threat to traditional car-makers, raising the question of whether they can adapt to this new challenge.

Tell them they're dreaming

0 implied HN points • 01 Apr 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Vaccination Health Risks Immunity Vaccine Hesitancy
  1. Australia's success in managing COVID-19 has led to complacency in vaccination efforts, resulting in potential long-term challenges.
  2. Achieving herd immunity is not a guarantee of safety, as the virus can still spread even with high vaccination rates.
  3. Strategic planning and a stronger vaccine strategy are crucial for countries like Australia to navigate the transition from COVID-Zero to a more sustainable approach amidst evolving virus variants.

A customer service call

0 implied HN points • 23 Apr 15
😂 Humor Satire Comedy
  1. The customer called to cancel an agreement to buy the company, citing regulatory concerns.
  2. Despite efforts by the company to retain the customer with discounts and alternative services, the customer ultimately decided to end the agreement.
  3. The customer's primary reason for wanting to cancel was due to potential legal issues and perceived regulatory challenges.

Missing infectiousness information for vaccines

0 implied HN points • 09 Dec 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Vaccines Infectiousness Trials Prevention Testing
  1. Vaccines must be evaluated for their ability to prevent people from spreading the virus, not just protecting the individual.
  2. It is crucial to gather information on infectiousness alongside vaccine trials to understand their full impact.
  3. Strategies like frequent testing of early vaccine recipients and vaccinating hard-hit regions first can provide valuable insights on the spread of vaccinated individuals.

The Apple Watch is best with close ones

0 implied HN points • 24 Jun 15
🕹 Technology Wearables Communication
  1. The Apple Watch brings you closer to your loved ones by enabling easy communication and thoughtful gestures.
  2. Having an Apple Watch for both you and your spouse enhances the experience and strengthens the connection.
  3. The device reduces the urge to constantly check your phone for other notifications, placing emphasis on meaningful interactions with those closest to you.

Ontario, a turn at being the worst

0 implied HN points • 17 Apr 21
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Preventative measures Public Health
  1. Ontario is currently facing a surge in COVID-19 cases driven by new variants, particularly the B.1.1.7 or UK variant.
  2. The outbreak is primarily originating in workplaces that remain open, such as manufacturing factories and distribution centers, leading to high rates of infection.
  3. A proposed solution to counter the surge in cases is to mandate the use of N95 or better masks in all currently open workplaces in Ontario with more than 20-30 employees.

What does a positive RAT result mean?

0 implied HN points • 19 Jan 22
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19
  1. A positive rapid antigen test result's accuracy depends on the prevalence of Covid-19. Lower prevalence leads to fewer false positives.
  2. During periods of low Covid-19 prevalence, the specificity of rapid tests is very high, above 99%. This means positive results are more likely to be accurate.
  3. Having a positive rapid test result during the Omicron wave means there is a less than 10% chance of it being a false positive. These tests are reliable.

Uncomfortable vaccine decisions

0 implied HN points • 11 Dec 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Vaccination Public Health Economics Medical Ethics Risk management
  1. Vaccine distribution plans should consider region-by-region vaccination to achieve normality in some places earlier, rather than nationally all at once.
  2. Participants of vaccine trials who received placebos could be considered for early vaccination to encourage more trial participation.
  3. Vaccinating air travelers early could help reopen the airline industry sooner and reduce the need for government bailouts, despite initial dislike for the idea.

The Star Wars Purification Ritual

0 implied HN points • 08 Dec 15
🎭️ Culture Film Pop culture
  1. Stop buying Star Wars toys to purify your connection to the essence of the characters.
  2. Ignore insider statements and critiquing to maintain a clear perspective on the franchise.
  3. Avoid dressing up in elaborate costumes, and opt for simple Star Wars attire instead.

Vaccine doses ... again

0 implied HN points • 04 Jan 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Vaccines COVID-19 Public Health Epidemiology Immunity
  1. There is a debate about the effectiveness of administering two vaccine doses versus one, with some evidence showing that a single dose could be adequate in certain situations.
  2. The timing of vaccine doses is crucial, with considerations on how to maximize the number of people vaccinated and the potential risks of delaying the second dose.
  3. Mathematical calculations play a role in determining the efficacy of first doses first strategy, but there are complexities involved, including capacity, prevalence of the virus, and the role of vaccines in reducing spread.

Science and the Policy Response

0 implied HN points • 13 Jan 21
🔬 Science Research Policy COVID-19 Peer Review Institutions
  1. Science heavily influenced policy-making during the Covid-19 pandemic, tracking the number of cases and playing a significant role in the global response.
  2. Recent research on Covid-19 had a substantial impact on policy-making and was highly cited by both policy-makers and other scientists.
  3. International governmental organizations like the World Health Organization (WHO) played a key role in connecting policy to science, producing more impactful documents compared to national governments or think tanks.

A Taste of Disruption

0 implied HN points • 24 Feb 16
💼 Business Research Disruption Management
  1. Firms facing demand-side disruption have options to react and defend against the threat.
  2. Supply-side disruption requires firms to be more integrative in how they conduct their business.
  3. The articles mentioned provide a 'lite' treatment of the disruption dilemma for those seeking a quick overview.

Waiving vaccine patent rights

0 implied HN points • 07 May 21
🏥 Health Politics Vaccine distribution Government funding
  1. Waiving vaccine patent rights is more symbolic than impactful in incentivizing R&D versus broader vaccine distribution.
  2. Patents were not a significant factor in speeding up vaccine development during the pandemic.
  3. The main focus should be on investing in manufacturing facilities and supply chain to produce and distribute vaccines efficiently.