Matt’s Five Points

Matt’s Five Points is a newsletter that analyzes U.S. politics and political science with an emphasis on the Republican Party's internal dynamics, legislative procedures, and the influence of social media on political engagement. It also includes reflections on local politics, personal insights from card games, and institutional changes in electoral processes.

Republican Party Legislative Processes Political Engagement Institutional Change Social Media Local Politics Card Games

The hottest Substack posts of Matt’s Five Points

And their main takeaways

Turn-out, tune-in, and roll-off in Fairfax County, VA

0 implied HN points • 09 Nov 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voter Turnout Political Science Local government Voting behavior
  1. Voter turnout in off-year elections, like local elections, tends to be low. People usually show less interest in state and local races compared to presidential elections.
  2. Roll-off means that voters often skip lower-profile races on the ballot. Many people vote for the main position but leave other options blank, showing a lack of interest or awareness for local issues.
  3. Non-partisan elections can harm democracy. Without party labels next to candidates' names, it's harder for voters to make informed choices about local officials.

Twelve minutes of popular sovereignty

0 implied HN points • 08 Nov 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Democracy Civic engagement Political culture
  1. Voting can feel special and meaningful, like being part of something bigger. It's a chance to connect with history and the future every time you cast your vote.
  2. Going to the polls is a mix of excitement and calm. It's quieter now than in the past, but that doesn't make it any less important.
  3. The process of voting has changed over time, with new technology making it easier. But the feeling of participating in democracy stays the same.

Monday APD Blogging: Civil War and Western Politcial Development

0 implied HN points • 07 Nov 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Civil War Political Development Historical Analysis Federalism
  1. The Civil War changed many important parts of American politics, like how states were formed and the power of the federal government. This period shaped the U.S. we know today.
  2. War often leads to big political changes. The Civil War pushed Congress to make quick decisions about new territories and statehood in the West, which wouldn’t have happened without the conflict.
  3. By the end of the Civil War, the political map of the West was set, with new states and territories established. This laid the groundwork for the future of American politics, shifting focus away from slavery issues to new regional interests.

Shoe Leather

0 implied HN points • 05 Nov 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigning Elections Voter Engagement Local Politics Political strategy
  1. Local elections often rely on door-to-door campaigning because there are usually no polls to guide candidates. This means candidates must use their personal connections and intuition to gauge their chances.
  2. Campaigning for local office requires different skills than running for higher offices. Candidates need to be comfortable talking to people face-to-face rather than just asking for money.
  3. When candidates knock on doors, people should feel free to ask them questions. It can reveal the candidate's honesty and help voters decide if they want to support them.

Voter prep for local elections (plus my VA endorsements!)

0 implied HN points • 04 Nov 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Local Governance Political parties Endorsements
  1. Local elections are really important because they greatly affect our daily lives and families. It's a mistake to underestimate them or ignore voting for local leaders.
  2. Using party affiliation is a smart shortcut if you're unsure about local candidates. It can help you make a good choice without needing to know every detail about each person.
  3. You don't need to do a lot of research to feel confident when voting locally. A little effort to understand the structure of your local government, key issues, and endorsements can make a big difference.
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Rank'em: Constitutional amendment edition

0 implied HN points • 03 Nov 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Constitution Voting Rights Civil Liberties
  1. Some amendments in the U.S. Constitution have little impact today, like the 27th Amendment, which deals with Congress's pay and isn't really relevant anymore.
  2. Many important amendments, such as the 13th (no slavery) and 19th (women's voting), might seem crucial, but their core principles are now accepted in society, so repealing them wouldn't likely reverse progress.
  3. The most essential amendments protecting individual rights, like the 1st Amendment (freedom of speech) and the 4th Amendment (protection against unreasonable searches), are vital to maintain a free society.

On figuring out what's important

0 implied HN points • 02 Nov 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Government Media Political Analysis Budgeting
  1. The Joint Super Committee (JSC) has the potential for big changes, even if it seems unlikely to achieve much right now. Sometimes, it’s worth paying attention to small chances because the outcomes can be significant.
  2. How the JSC process fails could impact politics greatly, regardless of whether it achieves any policy changes. Politicians will try to manage that failure to turn it into a win for themselves.
  3. Media tends to focus on the JSC because it's seen as new and exciting, while the appropriations process is more complicated and less glamorous, even though it might have more immediate consequences.

Garbage in, garbage out

0 implied HN points • 31 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political critique Party Dynamics Ideological analysis
  1. It's unfair to say that only people with certain backgrounds can lead. Owning a small business or doing everyday jobs should not disqualify someone from politics.
  2. The article suggests that some people think leaders need a specific education path, which can be elitist. Effective leaders can come from many different experiences.
  3. There’s a difference between being a national leader and a Congress member. Not everyone in Congress needs to have presidential qualities.

Double Herman-uetic

0 implied HN points • 31 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Scandals Media Political Analysis
  1. Amateur candidates often face more scrutiny for past mistakes than seasoned politicians. Career politicians usually have their issues dealt with through previous campaigns, so they have less to worry about.
  2. Some people believe controversies won't hurt a candidate, but many factors suggest otherwise. Allegations can impact a candidate's support, especially when they are competing against others in their own party.
  3. Even if a candidate survives a scandal, it can hurt their overall appeal and support. The lack of endorsements and fundraising issues can become more pronounced after such controversies.

Saturday APD-Congress Blogging: Clustered Voting in the House

0 implied HN points • 29 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Congress Voting Government
  1. The House floor is very important for making decisions and debates. Its rules and practices influence how Members of Congress spend their time both on and off the floor.
  2. Clustered voting allows Representatives to postpone multiple votes until a planned time. This means they don't have to constantly be on the floor and can manage their time more efficiently.
  3. While clustered voting improves scheduling and efficiency, it can lead to less debate and member engagement. Many members might not be present during discussion, which changes how they interact with issues and each other.

Slim and none, and slim just wrote a Times op-ed

0 implied HN points • 27 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Polling Public Opinion
  1. When discussing a candidate's chance of winning, it's important to avoid extreme statements like 'no chance.' It's better to recognize that while a candidate may be unlikely to win, they still have some chance.
  2. Polling numbers can be misleading, and it's important to consider the candidate's fundamentals, like their overall support and viability.
  3. Making bets or challenges can highlight different perspectives on a candidate's chances, but sometimes it's just a matter of semantics and how we interpret the odds.

Ten years burning down the road

0 implied HN points • 26 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Civil Liberties Legislation Executive Power Public Policy
  1. The Patriot Act has become normal to many people, making it easy for society to overlook its implications for personal freedom and privacy. Most citizens don’t see how it impacts their lives until a specific incident brings it to light.
  2. The sunset clauses in the Patriot Act allow Congress to limit executive power, which is a crucial step to avoid handing over unchecked authority. Regularly reviewing and renewing powers could keep the balance between safety and liberty in check.
  3. There's a concern that administrations, like Obama’s, have made enhanced security measures a standard practice, similar to how Eisenhower accepted the New Deal. This acceptance can make it harder to roll back such policies in the future.

Flattened

0 implied HN points • 25 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Tax policy Political theory Government reform Taxation Public Opinion
  1. Flat tax proposals often benefit the rich and hurt the middle class, making them unpopular and unlikely to pass.
  2. Simplicity in taxes doesn't only come from a flat tax; current tax systems can also be simplified without losing their structure.
  3. A progressive tax with fewer brackets and no deductions could be as simple as a flat tax and might be more widely accepted.

On political information

0 implied HN points • 22 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Voter Behavior Political media Election Strategy Public Opinion Political Analysis
  1. In any democracy, some voters know more about politics than others. These are known as sophisticated voters and normal voters.
  2. Getting political information has become much easier in recent years. With so many sources available, anyone can find news and analysis about politics.
  3. More people seem to be thinking about politics in strategic ways, like a campaign manager, rather than just reacting to what candidates say. This change might make politics feel more complex and less accessible for everyday voters.

A House Divided

0 implied HN points • 20 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political History Political strategy Public Opinion Economic Policy Election Dynamics
  1. Lincoln faced a divided nation and had to adjust his views, ultimately moving towards abolishing slavery when public sentiment shifted. Obama is in a tough spot because he doesn't have a clear, unilateral action like the Emancipation Proclamation to tackle today's issues.
  2. The call for Obama to adopt more aggressive leftist policies, like higher taxes on the wealthy, might not actually resolve underlying economic problems. It's important to recognize that such actions alone won't fix the economy or reduce unemployment significantly.
  3. Moving to the left could risk alienating moderate voters and lead to more gridlock in government. Lincoln was a savvy politician who adapted to his situation, and it's unclear if moving left is the best strategy for Obama as he approaches upcoming elections.

GOP Debate: Let's get historical!

0 implied HN points • 19 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Debates History Candidates Political Process Religious Influence
  1. Candidates often reference U.S. history during debates, but it can sometimes lead to misunderstandings. For example, Gingrich made some points about the Declaration of Independence that were not entirely accurate.
  2. The idea of doing debates like the Lincoln-Douglas ones today raises questions about whether modern candidates would agree to it. Many campaigns prefer the controlled environments of current debates.
  3. Long debates might not hold voters' attention because people have shorter attention spans today. A three-hour format could be too much for audiences now, making it less effective.

Tuesday APD blogging: The case of the federal calendar

0 implied HN points • 18 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Constitution Legislation Government Political History Election Process
  1. The Framers of the Constitution were well-intentioned but made mistakes, especially with the timing of when Congress should meet. They chose December, which didn’t match well with the new government's start date, causing a delay in legislative processes.
  2. Originally, Congress met much later in the year after elections, leading to 'lame duck' sessions, where outgoing officials had little power and new officials were not in place yet. This affected the ability to pass important laws efficiently.
  3. The 20th Amendment, ratified in 1933, eventually fixed some of these timing issues by adjusting the start dates for Congress and the President, making the process smoother and allowing new officials to take office sooner.

On populists and the establishment

0 implied HN points • 17 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Populism Political Movements Political narratives
  1. The term 'establishment' can be misleading because it suggests a single group that controls everything, but that's not really true in politics. Different groups have varying levels of influence depending on the situation.
  2. Populism in politics often arises as a reaction against an imagined elite, making candidates appear as heroes fighting against unfairness. This narrative helps them gain support from voters who feel left out.
  3. Populist movements can struggle to maintain their energy as they grow. Once they gain power, they might start to resemble the establishment they initially opposed, which can weaken their original message.

How would Watergate have played out absent the 25th amendment?

0 implied HN points • 14 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political History Impeachment Constitutional Law
  1. Without the 25th amendment, Nixon might have faced different political pressures and may have delayed his resignation. He could have argued that the situation was a partisan attack to gain public support.
  2. Impeachment would likely still happen without the amendment, but the conviction could be less certain. If the GOP had united against it, they might have swayed the Senate's decision.
  3. Carl Albert probably wouldn't have wanted to become Acting President. The pressure to take the role would increase if it meant avoiding an even less desirable president in James Eastland.

Posterior Perry-bility: A (semi-serious) Bayesian update of Rick Perry

0 implied HN points • 13 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Campaigns Polling Political theory
  1. Rick Perry's chances of becoming the GOP nominee have dropped after performing poorly in four debates.
  2. Bayesian analysis shows that his updated probability of being the nominee is now 24%, down from 39%.
  3. The discussion raises questions about how to accurately assess someone's debate performance and its impact on their nomination chances.

On legislative volume

0 implied HN points • 12 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Government Congress Political trends Policy Analysis
  1. Most laws in Congress are passed after October 1, with only about 16% being approved before that date. This shows that lawmakers need time to debate and finalize legislation.
  2. There is a clear link between the amount of legislation passed before and after October 1. More laws passed early often leads to more laws passed later, mainly because of the nature of the legislation being discussed.
  3. The 112th Congress didn't pass a huge number of laws, but its output before October 1 was similar to previous divided Congresses. This raises questions about what factors really influence legislative productivity.

On a common Senate fallacy

0 implied HN points • 11 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Public Opinion Representation Elections
  1. The Senate doesn't always reflect public opinion because it's malapportioned. This means the number of senators from each state doesn't match the population size.
  2. Even when senators follow their own constituents' opinions, the overall Senate vote can still differ from national views. The structure of the Senate makes this difference more likely.
  3. It's a mistake to assume that senators are going against their constituents just because their votes don't align with national public opinion. The Senate was designed differently, so it can lead to this disconnect.

Did William Jennigs Bryan's "cross of gold" speech crash the economy?

0 implied HN points • 11 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Rhetoric Economic Impact Historical Events Political parties Election Analysis
  1. The 'Cross of Gold' speech showed the Democratic Party's shift towards supporting silver over gold, which worried some investors.
  2. The speech didn't directly crash the economy, but it reflected bigger changes in the party that could have economic effects.
  3. Bryan was a surprising candidate, and his strong speech energized the silver delegates and changed party dynamics.

Happy Illigitimate Federal Holiday Day!

0 implied HN points • 10 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Cultural Events Social Science Public Sentiment
  1. Columbus Day is seen as the least legitimate federal holiday compared to others like Christmas and Thanksgiving. Many people don't celebrate it, and it lacks cultural significance.
  2. Major holidays like Christmas and Independence Day have strong personal and community celebrations. These holidays are recognized by both the government and the public.
  3. Some holidays, like Labor Day, are more about getting a day off rather than celebrating anything. People often use it as a chance to relax or have fun with friends instead.

On Representation

0 implied HN points • 09 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Representation Elections Communications Political culture
  1. Members of the House can now easily reach a national audience thanks to social media, allowing them to represent issues beyond their local districts. This change helps them gain more visibility and fundraising opportunities.
  2. The increase in online communication means Members can't ignore national issues, even if they want to focus solely on their local constituents. This shift can distort how they understand the needs of their district.
  3. Voters seem to be becoming more nationalized too, which may push Members to focus more on national trends rather than local concerns. This could lead to a loss of traditional local representation in House elections.

A Thing Worth Reading

0 implied HN points • 08 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political parties Federalism Election Process
  1. The Lincoln-Douglas debates show how two politicians, Lincoln and Douglas, had different views on slavery despite being on the same side politically. Their discussions highlight the complex opinions in the North, with both men arguing from various perspectives on a divisive issue.
  2. Douglas criticized the Republican Party for being too regional and failing to have a national stance, while Lincoln emphasized the moral wrongness of slavery. This reveals a deep divide in how they approached political and moral questions surrounding slavery.
  3. The debates also shed light on the problems of state elections being influenced by national politics. This situation pushed for the change to direct voting for senators, allowing voters more freedom in choosing state representatives without interference from national concerns.

On non-debatable motions

0 implied HN points • 07 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Senate Congress Political strategy Procedures
  1. The Senate can create new precedents through motions and appeals, changing how rules are applied. This means they can clarify what is considered a dilatory motion after cloture.
  2. When cloture is invoked, it doesn't stop everything; it sets up specific rules for how the Senate continues. This includes limits on debate and what types of amendments can be introduced.
  3. In the Senate, certain motions can't be debated once cloture is in effect. This allows for quicker decisions and can affect how the minority party engages in debate.

Word Cloud Answers

0 implied HN points • 01 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Rhetoric Historical context
  1. Comparing word clouds from different presidential inaugural addresses shows how their focuses and themes change over time. For example, Lincoln's first address emphasizes 'Union,' while his second highlights 'God' and 'War.'
  2. FDR's inaugural address stands out because of its use of the term 'emergency,' which sets it apart from others. This shows how context affects the language used by leaders during critical periods.
  3. When looking at clouds from Reagan and Obama, both convey optimism about America's future but through different perspectives. This reflects how modern inaugurals can still have distinct messages even when they share a common theme.

Friday whimsy: Inaugural Address Word Clouds

0 implied HN points • 30 Sep 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Presidents Speeches Government Symbolism
  1. Presidential inaugurations symbolize the transfer of power, which is an important aspect of a republic. It's a moment when the entire government comes together.
  2. The inaugural speeches are significant and often contain themes that reflect the era they were given in. Analyzing them can reveal a lot about the country's values and priorities at that time.
  3. Word clouds from these speeches highlight key themes and words used, offering a fun way to engage with history and test our knowledge of past inaugurations.

On last night

0 implied HN points • 29 Sep 11
🎾 Sports Baseball Fan culture Sports History
  1. Baseball fans often carry deep emotions tied to their team's history and past games. These memories shape how they react to current events in the sport.
  2. The experience of watching games has changed dramatically with technology and social media. Fans can now feel connected to others, even if they are watching alone.
  3. Baseball games create unique drama due to their unpredictable nature and individual player moments. This personal connection to the game makes the experience special.

In (partial) defense of less democracy

0 implied HN points • 28 Sep 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Democracy Legislation Governance Political theory
  1. Democracy is generally the best form of government we have, but it's not perfect. While it's better than other systems, it often has flaws and can be complicated.
  2. There are situations where democracy might not be the best choice, like long-term planning or during wars. In some cases, more centralized decision-making could be more effective.
  3. Democracy and majoritarianism are not the same. You can have a system that is democratic but still requires a lot of agreement among people, which can slow down decision-making.

On leadership

0 implied HN points • 27 Sep 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Leadership Congress Elections Political History
  1. Not many people have served in top leadership positions in both the House and Senate. It’s a rare transition, mainly because moving to the Senate means starting over with seniority.
  2. Three out of the five leaders who made the jump from House to Senate went on to serve in Senate leadership positions. This shows that ambition plays a big role in their career paths.
  3. Personal traits are important for leadership. Many of these leaders likely sought out leadership roles because they had natural leadership qualities, not just because of their circumstances.

On political donations

0 implied HN points • 26 Sep 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaign Finance Election Strategy Local Politics Political Impact Political engagement
  1. When donating to political campaigns, small donations help candidates show broad support, while big donors provide most of the funding. So, if you give a small amount, it mainly helps them look good in statistics.
  2. Local and state elections often have a bigger impact on daily life than national ones. Your money can go further in local races, like school board elections, which can be decided by a small number of votes.
  3. Many people focus too much on national politics, forgetting that local issues are often more important for their communities. If you want to make a real difference, consider running for a local position like the school board.

On anti-incumbency and partisan landslides

0 implied HN points • 26 Sep 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Partisanship Voter Behavior Political trends
  1. It's important to separate anti-incumbency from partisan landslides when looking at elections. Mixing them up can make it harder to understand voter behavior.
  2. Anti-incumbency can be seen in polling, but it doesn't always lead to big changes in election outcomes. Voters often just move against one party rather than against incumbents overall.
  3. True anti-incumbency has specific signs, like many incumbents losing while the total number of party seats stays the same. This shows voters are rejecting their own party's members.

How often does the majority lose in the House?

0 implied HN points • 22 Sep 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Congress Legislation Political parties Voting behavior Leadership
  1. The majority in the House rarely loses votes. It's not a common occurrence for them to be defeated.
  2. When they do lose, it can happen in several ways, like pulling a bill before a vote or losing the vote on a specific rule.
  3. In the past, the majority leadership lost more often due to less party unity and more control by the leadership over their members.

Aftermath of the CR failure

0 implied HN points • 22 Sep 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Government Elections Political parties Political strategy
  1. A government shutdown is now more likely following the failure to pass the funding bill. The disagreements within both parties mean it's harder to find common ground.
  2. House leadership has to decide quickly on their next steps. They can either push a more conservative bill or try to appeal to centrist Democrats, each with its own risks.
  3. The Senate's response to the situation is uncertain. If they reject bills that require spending cuts, it might escalate the conflict, especially with strong opposition from House Democrats.

On no-longer-quite-as-special interests

0 implied HN points • 20 Sep 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Process Legislation Political History Government Policy
  1. It's important for political leaders to clearly state their plans in writing. This helps them show their true intentions instead of being vague.
  2. Changes in policy proposals can happen depending on who is in power. Certain proposals that would have been unthinkable before might be on the table now.
  3. Strong political figures can greatly influence debates and decisions in Congress. Their presence can lead to more accountability and dialogue about important issues.

On the effectiveness of campaigns

0 implied HN points • 17 Sep 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns Political Science Voter Turnout
  1. Most of the money spent on campaigning is wasted. It's hard to know what actually works, so campaigns often spend in a scattershot way.
  2. There are methods like running experiments to see what campaign strategies are effective and how much they really cost. Door-to-door contact, for example, is usually more effective than phone calls.
  3. While research is helping campaigns waste less money, it may still only cut down the waste to two-thirds instead of eliminating it completely. There's always going to be some level of uncertainty in what works.

On Presidential Focus, Presidential Credit, and the Homestead Act

0 implied HN points • 17 Sep 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Presidency Policy Elections Political critique Public Perception
  1. Presidents have many issues to juggle, and they can't focus on just one thing, even if it seems like they are. This affects how people see their job performance.
  2. Voters notice how presidents prioritize their attention during tough times. If a president seems focused on something less urgent, like health care during an economic crisis, it could hurt their approval ratings.
  3. Political success is often tied to economic performance, not just individual policies. Passing great laws won't help if people feel the economy is in bad shape.

Congressional Jargon

0 implied HN points • 14 Sep 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Government Political Process Congress
  1. Congressional jargon includes terms like 'unanimous consent' and 'markup notes' which help staffers communicate effectively in the legislative process.
  2. Understanding phrases like 'rattle the cage' and 'running the traps' can give insight into the strategies and procedures used in Congress.
  3. Jargon can also reflect the urgency and dynamics of the legislative environment, like 'the smell of jet fuel' indicating a rush before the weekend.