Long Term agreements, particularly the NCNR order is a relative newcomer this cycle. Let's see how they are holding up. The Industry Structure is showing that Fabs are in charge.

Mule’s Musings • 196 HN points • 21 May 22

Micron and STMicroelectronics Investor Day

Secular growth opportunities but is it enough to justify a DCF?

Mule’s Musings • 188 HN points • 28 Sep 21

Reflections on the Continental Divide Trail

Writing about some thoughts that have been bouncing in my head

Mule’s Musings • 188 HN points • 13 Jan 22

TSMC Earnings - The Handoff from Mobile to HPC

2022 will be the year datacenter takes front and center at TSMC

Mule’s Musings • 152 HN points • 07 Jul 22

CXL: Protocol for Heterogenous Datacenters

Mule’s Musings • 152 HN points • 08 Jun 22

The Golden Screw: Inventory, Orders and Semiconductors

Is the Supply Chain Screwed? Backlogs create less visibility to end demand.

Mule’s Musings • 134 HN points • 22 Nov 21

The Rising Tide of Semiconductor Cost

It Isn't Transistory

Mule’s Musings • 125 HN points • 19 Dec 21

Intel's Mobileye Stub and Positioning

Semis are not that crowded & I take a crack at valuing Intel (model attached)

Mule’s Musings • 125 HN points • 22 Mar 22

Lessons from History: The 1980s Semiconductor Cycle(s)

Japan and overcapacity. A new series on cycles to gain insight into today's semiconductor market.

Mule’s Musings • 107 HN points • 31 Dec 21

2022 Semiconductor Webinar (and Outlook)

Something New is in the Works! Link Below!

Mule’s Musings • 98 HN points • 22 Jun 22

GPU Gluts, Estimate Cuts Coming, and AMD Valuation

Crypto crash implications for GPUs, Estimate cuts and inventory problems at at Fabless companies

Mule’s Musings • 98 HN points • 26 May 22

Nvidia's Crypto Issues, Cisco's Supply Chain issues

Nvidia's results are a tale of two segments, Cisco says Chinese supply chain bumps ahead.

Mule’s Musings • 89 HN points • 01 Jul 22

Micron Earnings: Demand Guide Down

We are in the End Game Now

Mule’s Musings • 80 HN points • 09 Aug 22

Nvidia's Pre-Announce and Earnings Overview (QRVO, AMD, SITM, MCHP, ENTG, KLIC)

Plus a short idea! Materials goes from Strongest to Weakest, Nvidia's dramatic guide down, and Fabs are flexing their muscle.

Mule’s Musings • 80 HN points • 08 Oct 21

Global Foundries S-1 Breakdown

A tale of two Global Foundries

Mule’s Musings • 80 HN points • 12 Apr 22

Earnings Preview: Cross Currents

This is one of the most confusing periods of times in terms of headlines.

Mule’s Musings • 80 HN points • 24 Jan 22

Semiconductors and Markets

Semiconductors are high-beta. They are considered economically sensitive. Does that Matter Right Now?

Mule’s Musings • 80 HN points • 14 Jul 22

Lessons from History: The 1990s Semiconductor Cycle(s)

The 1990s was the birth of the modern world order

Mule’s Musings • 71 HN points • 05 Oct 21

R2: What it Means to be 1 Less Than S3

In the battle of bandwidth and compute, Cloudflare has a strong hand. A dive into networking infrastructure.

Mule’s Musings • 71 HN points • 09 May 22

On Semi, AMD, KLIC, Rambus and More!

Mule’s Musings • 62 HN points • 30 Mar 22

NVLink/Switch and Platform Wars, Micron and Datacenter

Nvidia's new Grace and Hopper chips is beginning to open the datacenter, may the best silicon win.

Mule’s Musings • 62 HN points • 26 Apr 22

ASML, Lam Research, ASM International and ASM Pacific

"I'm a believer but..." sums up sentiment in the space.

Mule’s Musings • 53 HN points • 18 Apr 22

TSMC Earnings - Boring Execution, VAT Group has an Air Gap in Orders

TSMC reported great results, the market faded it. Welcome to good news is bad news.

Mule’s Musings • 53 HN points • 28 Jul 22

Earnings (TSMC, ASML, STX, BESI)

Earnings has begun, mostly things are turning out as expected.

Mule’s Musings • 53 HN points • 28 Jun 22

Activist at WDC, and KLAC's Long Term Model at Investor Day

Sorry to spam your inbox - I incorrectly sent an unedited version of this post - I had to rewrite the whole thing hastily this AM. I apologize for that.

Mule’s Musings • 53 HN points • 15 Mar 22

Weekly Update 3/15/2022

Update on Rambus, a Chinese delisting, and the most I've ever talked about Macro.

Mule’s Musings • 53 HN points • 17 Feb 22

Tower Semi Buyout Tips Intel's Hand

The rationale behind the Tower Semi acquisition and things to watch out for at Intel's investor day

Mule’s Musings • 44 HN points • 13 Dec 21

Semicon West Sparknotes

Some high level observations from Semicon West

Mule’s Musings • 44 HN points • 04 Oct 21

Micron and Memory Woes, ASML and the Bright Decade Ahead

Short term and long term trends collide in this newsletter