Mule’s Musings

Mule's Musings focuses on the intricacies of AI development, semiconductor industry dynamics, and technological evolution. It covers industry analyses, historical parallels, investment prospects, and the strategic maneuvers of leading tech companies, emphasizing on how foundational technologies shape our digital infrastructure and economic landscape.

AI Industry Dynamics Semiconductor Industry Trends Technological Evolution and History Corporate Strategy in Tech Investment and Market Analysis

Top posts of the year

And their main takeaways

AI Industry Structure and Business Model: What Inning is It?

610 implied HN points • 16 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Business Model Competitive Analysis
  1. AI industry adoption is still in its early stages, similar to the early days of internet adoption.
  2. Estimating the penetration rate of paying users for AI models like ChatGPT and LLM services is important for understanding the industry.
  3. The future business model of the AI industry is evolving, with a shifting landscape between semiconductor companies like Nvidia, hyperscalers, and AI model service providers.

Lessons from History: The Rise and Fall of the Telecom Bubble

558 implied HN points • 16 Oct 23
💼 Business Technology Finance History Economy
  1. The Telecom bubble had compounding levels of leverage throughout the value chain, which is a defining difference from today's AI companies.
  2. The barrier to entry in the Telecom industry seemed lower than in the AI industry, allowing for more new entrants.
  3. Supply is reactive to demand, and the telecom bubble showed that supply can quickly outstrip demand, leading to a glut.

WTF is going on at SuperMicro? (SMCI)

449 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Market Analysis Options
  1. An ongoing gamma squeeze at SuperMicro has led to a significant buying pressure, possibly due to high volumes of options expiring.
  2. The significant demand for shares due to in-the-money calls can lead to billions of dollars worth of shares needing to be accounted for.
  3. After the gamma squeeze peaks, there may be a period of share buying, but ultimately, there are expectations for SuperMicro's stock to stabilize and return to normal.

Semiconductor Outlook 2024: AI's Adolescence

443 implied HN points • 02 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Semiconductor AI Stock Market Economy
  1. Semiconductor market experienced a downturn in 2023 but is showing signs of recovery in 2024, especially in AI-related segments
  2. AI is emerging as a significant market segment in the semiconductor industry and is expected to continue growing in 2024
  3. Memory market, particularly High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), is also expected to see growth and become a major category in 2024

Why HBM is the Hottest Thing in Memory

411 implied HN points • 03 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Semiconductors Memory Industry Analysis Investing
  1. Investing in semiconductors involves identifying secular trends and market dislocations for potential opportunities.
  2. HBM technology is driving a significant change in the memory industry, with SK Hynix being highlighted as a key player to watch for.
  3. Suppliers in the memory market are strategically shifting focus and investments towards HBM, anticipating a boost in market demand and profitability in the coming years.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

The Coming Wave of AI, and How Nvidia Dominants

366 implied HN points • 30 May 23
🕹 Technology AI Semiconductors Inference Training Competition
  1. Large Language Models (LLMs) are powering AI applications and depend on factors like model size, training data, and computing power.
  2. Semiconductors benefit from the demand for LLMs due to their computing power requirements for training and inference, creating opportunities for companies like Nvidia.
  3. Nvidia dominates in the AI hardware market with a three-headed hydra strategy focusing on networking and systems, accelerator hardware, and software solutions.

ARM IPO Breakdown

346 implied HN points • 12 Sep 23
💼 Business Tech industry Finance Valuation Competitive Analysis
  1. ARM is an important company in the IP industry, famous for its power efficiency and reduced instruction set.
  2. ARM's history includes significant milestones like going public in 1997 and being acquired by Softbank in 2016.
  3. The ARM IPO is highly anticipated, with the company aiming to list between 50-55 billion, showcasing its key role in the industry.

Boardroom Battle at OpenAI: Safety First

340 implied HN points • 19 Nov 23
🕹 Technology AI Governance Innovation Ethics
  1. OpenAI was founded with a mission of ensuring artificial general intelligence benefits humanity.
  2. The board structure at OpenAI faced a power struggle with a focus on AI safety.
  3. A boardroom battle led to the ousting of the CEO, showing the importance of governance and stakeholder alignment.

Nvidia: Better than Dreamed

295 implied HN points • 24 Aug 23
💰 Finance Stock Market Earnings Report Technology Industry Market Analysis
  1. Nvidia exceeded expectations with its Q2 earnings, surpassing revenue and EPS estimates.
  2. There is uncertainty about the sustainability of Nvidia's growth due to potential overordering and demand shifts.
  3. Nvidia's competitive advantage lies in its architecture, installed base, reach, and rapid engineering, positioning them as a dominant force in the tech ecosystem.

Finding the Sweet Spot: Nvidia's Goldilocks Quarter

295 implied HN points • 22 Feb 24
💼 Business Technology Finance Earnings Supply Chain Stock Market
  1. Nvidia's quarterly results exceeded expectations, with significant revenue growth in the Datacenter segment despite challenges like China's revenue dropping to almost zero.
  2. Nvidia achieved its highest gross margin ever, despite expectations that it would decrease in the future, hinting at potential pricing strategies for new products like B100.
  3. Nvidia is facing supply constraints but anticipates strong demand for upcoming products like B100, suggesting promising revenue growth opportunities and potential bottlenecks in the networking industry.

Semiconductor Cycle: Industrial and EVs

288 implied HN points • 15 Nov 23
💼 Business Technology Market Analysis
  1. Industrial semiconductor demand is weakening, while smartphones and PCs are at a good point in the cycle.
  2. Chinese industrial production is down, solar is weakening, and EV inventories are rising.
  3. Semiconductors in different end markets have varying cyclicality, with automotive and industrial segments remaining more stable.

VLSI Japan: It’s Better on the Backside

263 implied HN points • 15 Jun 23
🕹 Technology Semiconductors Manufacturing Innovation Competition Design
  1. VLSI Japan discussed the revolutionary Backside Power Delivery (BSPDN) technology and its importance in semiconductor design.
  2. BSPDN addresses the IR droop problem in semiconductor design, offering power and performance benefits like decreased IR droop and increased core performance.
  3. Intel's adoption of PowerVia technology positions them ahead of competitors like TSMC, providing potential competitive advantages in process efficiency and cost.

Taiwan AI Conference Slides, Nvidia Fraud Hoax, Huawei, ARM IPO, and Intel

263 implied HN points • 06 Sep 23
🕹 Technology AI Semiconductors Crypto Internet Conspiracy Theories
  1. The Taiwan AI conference had great slides and discussions on AI content and technology.
  2. There is a debunking of the 'Nvidia is a fraud' narrative, explaining reasons for recent actions by Nvidia.
  3. The complexity of internet-scale events can lead to conspiracy theories as people try to make sense of things beyond their understanding.

Marvell Industry Analyst Day

256 implied HN points • 17 Dec 23
💼 Business Technology Finance AI Semiconductors Networking
  1. Marvell's Industry Analyst Day focused on AI and highlighted strong revenue growth expectations for the company related to AI technologies.
  2. Marvell expects significant revenue from AI in 2024, with over two billion dollars projected, driven by AI demand and server attach rates.
  3. Marvell's strategy involves leveraging networking, custom silicon, and pluggable transceivers to position themselves as a key player in the AI semiconductor market.

Automotive (NXPI, IFX) Optics (FN, COHR), MKSI, MPWR, ACLS, SLAB, RMBS, ARM

83 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
💰 Finance Stocks Investing Market Analysis Company Updates
  1. The post discusses the performance of different companies in the automotive and optics sectors, highlighting particular stocks like NXPI, IFX, FN, COHR, MKSI, MPWR, ACLS, SLAB, RMBS, and ARM.
  2. It mentions an observation that automotive stocks are performing poorly while optics stocks are doing well.
  3. There is a note about Rambus having a breather and SLAB putting a bottom in, suggesting potential shifts in their performance.