Mule’s Musings

Mule's Musings focuses on the intricacies of AI development, semiconductor industry dynamics, and technological evolution. It covers industry analyses, historical parallels, investment prospects, and the strategic maneuvers of leading tech companies, emphasizing on how foundational technologies shape our digital infrastructure and economic landscape.

AI Industry Dynamics Semiconductor Industry Trends Technological Evolution and History Corporate Strategy in Tech Investment and Market Analysis

Top posts of the year

And their main takeaways

The Death of Intel: When Boards Fail

969 implied HN points • 05 Dec 24
💼 Business Corporate Governance Management Finance Investments
  1. The Intel board is seen as unqualified, with many members lacking the necessary semiconductor experience. This has likely contributed to the company's ongoing struggles.
  2. Pat Gelsinger, the former CEO, was fired despite being technically skilled and wanting to help the company. His optimistic approach conflicted with the board's short-term focus.
  3. The board's focus on maximizing shareholder value might lead to harmful decisions like breaking up the company, which could hurt its long-term prospects and impact the industry and U.S. competitiveness.

2025 AI & Semiconductor Outlook

777 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
🕹 Technology AI Semiconductors Economics Stocks Industry Trends
  1. In 2024, AI technologies surged while many other sectors, especially automotive and smartphones, struggled. Companies like Nvidia saw huge gains, showcasing a divide in performance across the industry.
  2. The semiconductor market is cyclical, meaning trends can shift quickly. This year, companies that did poorly last year, could potentially do well, while top AI names might not see the same explosive growth.
  3. AI advancements are driving up costs and creating new economic challenges for tech companies. There's a bigger focus now on how much it costs to develop and maintain AI, differing from past trends where costs were lower.

DeepSeek: Is this Jevon's Cope?

635 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
🕹 Technology AI Infrastructure Market Trends Economic Theory
  1. Price changes can greatly influence how people feel about markets, leading to strong swings in sentiment. This idea is evident in the ongoing debates around AI infrastructure spending.
  2. The Jevons Paradox suggests that as technology makes things cheaper, demand often increases instead of decreases. This means that even with better technology, we may use more resources rather than less.
  3. There is a real risk that supply can exceed demand in the short term, impacting the market negatively. While the long-term picture may be optimistic, the immediate situation can be very different.

Capital Cycles and AI

629 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
💼 Business Capital Markets Investment strategy Technological Innovation Market Trends
  1. Everything goes in cycles, including money. When investors see high returns, they jump in, but eventually, too much investment leads to lower returns.
  2. The current boom in AI feels different because it lacks a strong feedback loop that typically drives rapid investment increases. We're not yet seeing the big jumps in value that signal a bubble.
  3. Power and data centers are crucial for AI's growth, but they have slow response times. This means there might be overbuilding, which could lead to shortages and demand outstripping supply in the future.

Earnings: TSMC, ASML, AEHR, Telecom

417 implied HN points • 20 Oct 24
💼 Business Finance Investing Market Analysis Technology Economy
  1. ASML's recent earnings revealed a drop in orders and concerns about future growth, particularly due to challenges in their Chinese market and demand from major clients like Samsung and Intel.
  2. TSMC reported strong earnings with high demand for AI-related products and plans for significant capital investment, showing confidence in their growth despite market fears.
  3. The semiconductor industry is facing a shift, with lithography spending likely slowing down, but both ASML and TSMC are positioned to adapt to these changes for future growth.
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NVLink Fusion: Embrace, Extend, Extinguish

417 implied HN points • 27 May 25
🕹 Technology AI Hardware Networking Silicon Computing
  1. Nvidia has a strong edge in the market with its NVLink technology, allowing fast communication between chips. This positions Nvidia favorably against competitors who are still developing their own solutions.
  2. By licensing its C2C technology and selling NVLink chiplets, Nvidia is opening its technology to others while still maintaining a competitive advantage. This strategy helps Nvidia grow its influence and solidify its market position.
  3. The 'embrace, extend, extinguish' strategy means Nvidia is likely to dominate the market by allowing others to use its technology while quickly outpacing them with its own products and innovations.

NVIDIA: Waiting on Blackwell, and the Networking Question

372 implied HN points • 21 Nov 24
🕹 Technology Semiconductors AI Networking Market Analysis
  1. Nvidia's recent earnings report showed lighter-than-expected guidance, meaning some investors were disappointed but it also indicates the company is stabilizing as it grows larger.
  2. The focus is now on Nvidia's new product, Blackwell, which is expected to greatly impact revenue, and there's anticipation about how successful it will be as it ramps up.
  3. Networking sales have surprisingly dropped as a percentage of revenue, even though overall networking demand is still strong, raising questions about the reasons behind this change.

TSM - It's Good to Be the King: 1 Trillion Incoming

366 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
💼 Business Finance Investments Market Trends Earnings Reports Technology
  1. TSMC has reported impressive growth, especially with a 35% increase in capital expenditures. This shows they are investing heavily in their future.
  2. The demand for AI-related products is driving TSMC's revenue, with expectations for AI revenue to double in 2025. This is a big part of their expected growth moving forward.
  3. As competitors struggle, TSMC is gaining market share and experiencing growing profits. They are on track to potentially become a trillion-dollar company.

Vibe Check: MSFT & META Earnings: LRCX, MXL, WOLF, ASML, CLS, STM, ALGM, INTC

366 implied HN points • 03 Feb 25
💰 Finance Earnings Reports Investment Trends Stock Analysis Tech industry
  1. Microsoft is seeing strong growth in its AI revenue, but its overall business is growing slowly. They have invested heavily in AI and plan to keep expanding their data center capacities.
  2. Meta is optimistic about the future of AI and has extended the lifespan of its servers. They expect to make significant advancements in AI coding and problem-solving capabilities in 2025.
  3. Both companies are focusing their spending on infrastructure, with Meta doubling down on AI and core business needs. They believe that investing in this area will give them a competitive edge.

Scaling Laws Meet Economics, but Adoption is still Accelerating

333 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
🕹 Technology AI Economics Modeling Hardware Innovation
  1. Economics are very important when it comes to scaling tech, and while costs are rising, tools like ChatGPT are still becoming more popular. Understanding the balance of cost and usage is crucial.
  2. Scaling laws are changing, and relying solely on large pre-trained models may not be the best strategy anymore. Businesses might need to explore smaller models or alternative methods to improve efficiency and reduce costs.
  3. Adoption of AI technologies is still growing rapidly, which shows that despite challenges, many people are eager to use and integrate these tools into their lives.

The Rise of Amazon's Trainium 2

288 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
🕹 Technology Semiconductors AI Infrastructure Cloud Computing
  1. Amazon is significantly increasing its investments in technology infrastructure, particularly for AI services, showing a strong commitment to compete in the generative AI space.
  2. The success of Amazon's new custom silicon, Trainium 2, could be larger than expected as demand from AI applications grows rapidly.
  3. Trainium 2 represents Amazon's serious entry into the market for training AI models, positioning it as a competitor against established players like Nvidia.

Earnings: Optics(COHR, FN, LITE), Soitec, IFX, SWKS, ONTO, ENTG

173 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Earnings Markets Analysis Reports
  1. The earnings reports for companies in the optics sector, such as COHR and FN, are being discussed. This means their financial performance is being analyzed.
  2. Soitec, IFX, SWKS, ONTO, and ENTG are also mentioned, indicating they are part of the earnings updates. These companies are likely in the tech or semiconductor industry.
  3. This information is geared towards paid subscribers, suggesting a focus on a niche audience interested in detailed financial insights.

Idea in Smartphones

141 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🕹 Technology Smartphones Innovation Gadgets Trends User Experience
  1. Smartphones are evolving, and it might be time to consider what that means for us. We need to think about how these changes affect our daily lives.
  2. Many features in smartphones are becoming more advanced, which can change how we communicate and connect with others. It's worth paying attention to these developments.
  3. With the rapid growth of smartphone technology, we should reflect on our usage and whether it aligns with our values and needs. It's important to think critically about our relationship with these devices.

Vibe Check: Google and Amazon. Earnings: IoT(SMTC, NOD, SLAB,PI), RMBS, AMD

141 implied HN points • 09 Feb 25
💼 Business Earnings Tech IOT Finance Market Trends
  1. Google and Amazon are being assessed for their performance and outlook. People are paying attention to how these companies are doing.
  2. The earnings report includes various companies related to the Internet of Things like SMTC and AMD. These companies are important to keep an eye on for future trends.
  3. This is the first part of a weekly summary about company earnings. Expect to see more updates on financial performances soon.

Happy Thanksgiving Semicap & Semiconductors

141 implied HN points • 29 Nov 24
💼 Business Economics Finance Markets Investment Technology
  1. Export controls in the semiconductor industry can create good buying opportunities. It's a chance for investors to think strategically.
  2. The semiconductor market is influenced by various factors, and understanding these can help in making informed decisions.
  3. Staying updated on industry news is essential for anyone interested in semiconductors, especially during significant events like Thanksgiving.

Semicap Stock Idea

102 implied HN points • 16 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investing Stocks Market Analysis Financial trends
  1. The article presents a stock idea related to semiconductors, a key industry for technology. Semiconductors are essential for a lot of modern devices, making them an important investment area.
  2. It's aimed at paid subscribers, which suggests that the insights may be more detailed or exclusive. Paid content often provides deeper analysis that can help investors make better decisions.
  3. Investing in the semiconductor sector may be beneficial due to its growing importance in the tech world. Understanding trends in this field can help guide smart investment choices.

Applied Digital, Defense Semiconductors, and 1998

96 implied HN points • 09 Jun 25
🕹 Technology AI Semiconductors Defense Digital Government
  1. Applied Digital focuses on combining technology with government projects. This partnership can lead to innovation and improved efficiency in services.
  2. Defense semiconductors are crucial for national security. They help in developing advanced technologies used in defense systems.
  3. Understanding the history of technology and its applications, like in 1998, gives insight into current trends and future developments. Learning from the past is important for progress.

Earnings: ON, AMKR, RMBS, UCTT, AMD, ASMI, KLAC, MPWR, ALGM, STM, INTC

83 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
💰 Finance Investing Earnings Markets Economic Trends Stocks
  1. Several companies, including AMD and INTC, have recently released their earnings reports. This is important for investors to understand how these companies are performing.
  2. The list of companies mentioned are all key players in the tech and semiconductor industries. Keeping an eye on their earnings can provide insight into market trends.
  3. This information is mainly aimed at subscribers, indicating it may include in-depth analysis or additional insights for those interested in stock performance.