Construction Physics • 23383 implied HN points • 29 Jan 26
- Manufactured technologies tend to get cheaper more reliably over time, while commodities can also fall in price but do so less consistently, especially in recent decades.
- The price dynamics overlap: commodities face depletion, tradability, and cartel effects, while technologies benefit from learning, scale, and process improvements, yet technologies can hit siting or resource limits and commodities can improve via better extraction methods.
- It’s unclear whether commodities follow learning curves because long-run cumulative production data is often missing, so analyzing specific price-driving mechanisms is more useful than relying on a simple technology-vs-commodity split.