The hottest Diplomacy Substack posts right now

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Top World Politics Topics

A Farewell To Arms Supplies.

Trying to Understand the World ā€¢ 8 implied HN points ā€¢ 11 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Strategy must start with a clear, unambiguous end-state you can measure, because without a defined goal you can't know what plans or resources are needed.
  2. Operational plans have to show how actions will actually produce political outcomes and must be grounded in a realistic understanding of the target society; wishful assumptions (like crude modernization theory or expecting ā€œpeople like usā€ to take over) usually fail.
  3. War is fundamentally attritional and asymmetric: victory depends on preserving the specific capabilities tied to your objectives, and logistical, industrial and political limits can defeat even a technologically superior power.

NATO crisis deepens as Trump demands Denmark cede Greenland to the United States following the failure of the Nobel Committee to award him the Peace Prize

eugyppius: a plague chronicle ā€¢ 231 implied HN points ā€¢ 19 Jan 26
šŸŒ World Politics Diplomacy
  1. The U.S. president publicly demanded that Denmark give Greenland to the United States, even suggesting buying or annexing the island and prompting talks framed as acquisition discussions.
  2. European allies showed symbolic military support for Denmark but avoided direct confrontation, and the U.S. threatened tariffs that led the EU to pause a trade deal, escalating tensions.
  3. Greenlanders and Danish law make a transfer unlikely, so the U.S. push risks damaging NATO unity and creating a major geopolitical dispute without local consent.

Weekend Update #167: Lets Be Honest, We Are Taking Advantage Of The Ukrainians

Phillipsā€™s Newsletter ā€¢ 288 implied HN points ā€¢ 11 Jan 26
šŸŒ World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Western allies are effectively relying on Ukrainians to bear huge human and material costs while providing relatively small aid, and ordinary people are enduring brutal hardships like cold, power loss, and frontline danger.
  2. The Grahamā€“Blumenthal sanctions push looks like political theater: the Senate can act without White House sign-off and the president already claims wide sanction powers, so public promises donā€™t guarantee real punishment of Russia.
  3. Ukraineā€™s strikes on Russian energy infrastructure are making a difference but their impact is limited by Chinese purchases and uneven Western support, and there is a tense debate about whether to escalate attacks on Russian cities if more help doesnā€™t arrive.

Henry Huiyao Wang on Beyond Blocs

Pekingnology ā€¢ 113 implied HN points ā€¢ 11 Feb 26
šŸŒ World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Global politics is moving away from fixed blocs toward issue-by-issue cooperation, with different coalitions forming around climate, trade, security, and technology. Shared interests and rules will often matter more than ideological alignment.
  2. Europe will act as an independent balancing pole, keeping its values and security ties while engaging pragmatically with partners on trade, green tech, and multilateral reform. It will cooperate where interests align but keep its own strategic autonomy.
  3. Middle powers and smaller states will hedge and pick interests rather than choose sides, creating a contested multipolar order that can enable cooperation on big problems like climate and health but also leave disputes over trade, market access, and industrial policy.

Well Europe, Do You Get It Finally? Standing Up To Trump Works Better Than Prostrating Yourself

Phillipsā€™s Newsletter ā€¢ 211 implied HN points ā€¢ 22 Jan 26
šŸŒ World Politics Diplomacy
  1. When European states pushed back over Greenland, Trump dropped his threats and shifted toward negotiation.
  2. Concrete, coordinated European actions replaced kowtowing and gave them more leverage with the U.S.
  3. Europe should use the same assertive approach to influence U.S. policy on Ukraine and secure more reliable military support instead of appeasing the president.
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Henry Huiyao Wang: Itā€™s time for global governance to reflect the new realities

Pekingnology ā€¢ 75 implied HN points ā€¢ 20 Feb 26
šŸŒ World Politics Diplomacy
  1. The old postā€‘war global order no longer fits the real world; todayā€™s system is multipolar, deeply interconnected, and faces crossā€‘border problems like climate change, AI and supplyā€‘chain risk.
  2. Cooperation is shifting away from rigid blocs toward issueā€‘based, minilateral coalitions where middle powers and shared interests drive collaboration on trade, standards and technology.
  3. Global institutions must be reformed and focused on implementation. That means institutionalizing the G20, restoring WTO dispute mechanisms, and modernizing the UN to give developing countries more voice and to tackle digital and climate governance.

How MI6 works

Comment is Freed ā€¢ 153 implied HN points ā€¢ 29 Jan 26
šŸŒ World Politics Diplomacy
  1. MI6ā€™s core job is still to find people inside hostile states or groups and persuade them to work as sources.
  2. Recruitment has changed a lot ā€” it used to be informal, like a tap on the shoulder at university, and the organisationā€™s workplaces have shifted too.
  3. Technology and AI now help intelligence officers search and filter candidates much faster, replacing many manual, paper-based methods.

Screwed!

Johnā€™s Substack ā€¢ 14 implied HN points ā€¢ 10 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Diplomacy
  1. The war is going badly for Israel and the United States, with no easy military or political victory in sight.
  2. Ending the war would require big concessions to Iran that seem politically impossible for President Trump, so further escalation is likely and Iran can counterā€‘escalate.
  3. The only likely quick end would come if the conflict seriously threatens the global economy and forces a halt, but how that would unfold is uncertain.

Ukraine Collapses & NATO Escalates

Glennā€™s Substack ā€¢ 439 implied HN points ā€¢ 04 Jul 24
šŸŒ World Politics Diplomacy
  1. NATO is struggling in Ukraine and needs to either negotiate or increase its military involvement.
  2. The situation is tense and we may be close to a direct conflict between NATO and Russia.
  3. Political issues in Western countries are worsening, but NATO continues to escalate the situation instead of seeking dialogue.

The Qatari elephant in the room

The Dossier ā€¢ 4599 implied HN points ā€¢ 11 Oct 23
šŸŒ World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Top leaders of Hamas live in Doha, protected and celebrated by the Qatari regime.
  2. Qatar plays a significant role in supporting and sheltering Hamas leaders.
  3. Qatar's influence campaign presents it as a negotiator but supports terrorist organizations.

SITREP 6/30/23: Winds Gather Before the NATO Summit

Simplicius's Garden of Knowledge ā€¢ 7593 implied HN points ā€¢ 01 Jul 23
šŸŒ World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Ukraine struggles to make significant advances against Russia, facing setbacks and casualties in its offensives.
  2. Western partners are pushing Ukraine towards negotiations for conflict resolution over air cover and supplies issues.
  3. Russia maintains overwhelming pressure on all frontlines, awaiting potential further escalation next year with more troops mobilized.

Putin Invites Top Russian Correspondents For Candid War Q&A + SitRep Updates

Simplicius's Garden of Knowledge ā€¢ 7533 implied HN points ā€¢ 14 Jun 23
šŸŒ World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Putin held a press conference with top Russian correspondents for a candid Q&A about the war.
  2. During the chat, Putin made interesting admissions about deficiencies in the Russian army and production of modern systems.
  3. Putin hinted at Russia's future plans in Ukraine, mentioning that they will depend on the situation and outcome of Ukraine's counter-offensive.

Rebranding Genocide

The Chris Hedges Report ā€¢ 367 implied HN points ā€¢ 15 Dec 25
šŸŒ World Politics Diplomacy
  1. The violence in Gaza is ongoing and has been relabeled with terms like ā€œceasefireā€ or ā€œstabilization,ā€ but the killings, destruction, and intent to remove Palestinians continue in a slow, systematic way.
  2. Global institutions and powerful states have failed to stop or hold accountable these abuses, with ceasefire terms repeatedly violated and proposals that effectively cement external control and displacement of Palestinians.
  3. The result is a catastrophic humanitarian and environmental crisisā€”mass displacement, starvation, rubble, and long-term harmā€”and the normalization of such brutality warns that similar patterns could spread under imperial and climate pressures.

TGIF: Trumpā€™s Plan to Conquer Heaven

Common Sense with Bari Weiss ā€¢ 1516 implied HN points ā€¢ 22 Aug 25
šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø U.S. Politics Diplomacy
  1. Trump is trying to improve the situation in Ukraine and is seeking ways to negotiate peace. He recently met with leaders from Ukraine and Europe, showing a united front against Russia.
  2. Critics are divided on Trump's approach, with some believing he is simply being babysat by European leaders during his meetings.
  3. There seems to be a positive shift in Trump's attitude towards Ukraine, as he now talks about security guarantees, suggesting he wants to support them more than before.

Is Ukraine's position improving? What's Russia's breaking point? Is House of Dynamite accurate?

Comment is Freed ā€¢ 77 implied HN points ā€¢ 11 Feb 26
šŸŒ World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Russian operations have slowed this year because of freezing weather, disruptions to key communications like Starlink, and manpower and quality problems, and recent failures undermine the idea of an inevitable Russian victory.
  2. The front is long and hard to track, but Ukrainian forces are on the offensive in roughly a quarter of engagements and could exploit thinly held Russian sectors, though Kyiv is likely to avoid a risky large-scale counteroffensive.
  3. Russia is deploying about 711,000 personnel in Ukraine with estimated daily losses of 1,000ā€“1,100, making replacements difficult and forcing reliance on questionable recruits, which strains its fighting capacity.

War Is The Worst Thing In The World

Caitlinā€™s Newsletter ā€¢ 2379 implied HN points ā€¢ 20 Jun 25
šŸŒ World Politics Diplomacy
  1. War causes immense suffering and destruction, impacting everyone involved. It turns life into a nightmare filled with pain and loss.
  2. People in power often push for wars for their own gain, manipulating others by claiming itā€™s for noble reasons like freedom or self-defense.
  3. Opposing war is seen as radical, but those promoting peace are the ones truly fighting for a better world, and their voices should not be silenced.

The Palau Says No Edition

Why is this interesting? ā€¢ 1568 implied HN points ā€¢ 31 Jul 25
šŸŒ World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Palau, a small island nation, recently rejected a U.S. request to take in asylum seekers. This bold move highlights their struggle between maintaining sovereignty and relying on the U.S. for support.
  2. The rejection is significant because it raises concerns about what further demands the U.S. might make in the future. Palau wants to avoid setting a precedent that could lead to more pressure on their limited resources.
  3. Palau's decision comes at a crucial time, as it directly impacts funding for their environmental and conservation efforts. By standing firm, they send a strong message about their priorities and independence.

Readouts of Xi-Trump, Xi-Putin calls

Pekingnology ā€¢ 109 implied HN points ā€¢ 04 Feb 26
šŸŒ World Politics Diplomacy
  1. China and the U.S. agreed to keep up dialogue and practical cooperation, with Xi saying both sides should move forward with equality, respect, and mutual benefit. He also stressed Taiwan is the core issue and urged the U.S. to be very prudent about arms sales to Taiwan.
  2. China and Russia reaffirmed a deep strategic partnership, pledging closer economic, energy, cultural, and security cooperation and tighter coordination in forums like the UN, BRICS, and SCO. Both leaders emphasized mutual support for each otherā€™s sovereignty and plans to expand people-to-people and educational ties.
  3. Both conversations were tied to 2026 prioritiesā€”Chinaā€™s new Five-Year Plan and major summit hostingā€”and framed around managing global turbulence, building trust step by step, and maintaining strategic stability and orderly global governance.

CROSSPOST: MICHAEL SELLERS: How the CIA & Israel Pulled Off the Successful Opening Leadership Strike on Iran

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality ā€¢ 15 implied HN points ā€¢ 02 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Diplomacy
  1. A timely intelligence 'pivot' that Iranian leaders would all be together created the chance for a decapitation strike, making a single simultaneous attack effective.
  2. The operation combined standoff weapons, compound-level targeting, and coordinated simultaneous hits while keeping surprise until impact, showing how precision intelligence and munitions can enable rapid, high-value strikes.
  3. This episode shows modern war shifting in the attention-info-bio-tech era: leaders can be exposed in unhardened urban settings, and intelligence-driven targeting is reshaping how twenty-first-century conflicts are fought.

"Putin is not getting an accurate picture"

Comment is Freed ā€¢ 103 implied HN points ā€¢ 01 Feb 26
šŸŒ World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Intelligence cooperation among the Five Eyes stayed strong despite political turbulence in the U.S., and leaders worked to preserve that relationship.
  2. U.S. intelligence chiefs are often political appointees and can be used in different ways; a former diplomat like Bill Burns was deployed to send diplomatic signals such as visiting Moscow.
  3. MI6 leaders can carry out quiet, sensitive conversations that higher-profile officials might not be able to, and they avoid asking partners to do things that would conflict with those partners' legal or compliance rules.

Introducing the Drop Site Daily Briefing

God's Spies by Thomas Neuburger ā€¢ 35 implied HN points ā€¢ 28 Feb 26
šŸŒ World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Drop Siteā€™s Daily Briefing is a free weekday newsletter that gives quick, regional, bullet-point headlines so readers can scan the dayā€™s major stories fast.
  2. Recent briefings highlight rising Iran-related tensions: the U.S. authorized non-emergency departures from Israel, high-level diplomacy is underway (Vance meeting Omanā€™s foreign minister), and Congress is preparing a War Powers vote to limit further escalation.
  3. Thereā€™s a strategic split over objectives ā€” some U.S. leaders seem to want a quick, limited result while Israeli policymakers and hawks aim for far broader regime-change goals, making negotiations and policy outcomes uncertain.

How to Negotiate with Russia

Thinking about... ā€¢ 433 implied HN points ā€¢ 19 Nov 25
šŸŒ World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Don't make concessions without clear benefits. It's unfair to give up things for others without getting something back.
  2. It's crucial to listen to Ukrainians in negotiations. Their voices matter because they're the ones affected by this conflict.
  3. A lasting peace needs to help rebuild Ukraine. If it doesn't address recovery, it's less likely to hold and lead to real stability.

Plan D

Doomberg ā€¢ 6499 implied HN points ā€¢ 13 Oct 24
šŸŒ World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Turkmenistan, led by the late dictator Niyazov, created a unique cult of personality centered around himself with his image everywhere in the country.
  2. After Niyazov's death, Turkmenistan remained an oppressive state under President Berdimuhamedov, known for its very low score on political rights and civil liberties.
  3. The country has huge energy resources, especially natural gas, making it significant in global energy discussions, particularly concerning China's future energy needs.

Iran War, Day Two

The Cosmopolitan Globalist ā€¢ 15 implied HN points ā€¢ 01 Mar 26
šŸŒ World Politics Diplomacy
  1. An Israeli strike killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and many top Iranian commanders, effectively decapitating Iranā€™s senior military leadership.
  2. Iran launched a massive missile and drone offensive in retaliation, targeting US bases, Israel, and Gulf states and striking airports and military sites.
  3. Regional air defenses shot down hundreds of incoming weapons but there were still deaths, injuries, and damage, signaling a rapidly escalating, region-wide conflict.

Invisible bonds

David Friedmanā€™s Substack ā€¢ 143 implied HN points ā€¢ 22 Jan 26
šŸ’¾ History Diplomacy
  1. Established rules of allegiance and obligation create predictable political order, and leaders who follow those rules can rely on their supporters.
  2. When leaders break those norms and use raw power or betrayal, they lose respect and loyalty from key allies, which invites revolt and collapse.
  3. The same logic applies today: using sheer force to grab territory or ignore accepted norms (for example, trying to seize Greenland) is a strategic mistake because it destroys the invisible bonds that hold political order together.

Cloud War: the National Security Strategy Edition

Interconnected ā€¢ 339 implied HN points ā€¢ 07 Dec 25
šŸŒ World Politics Diplomacy
  1. U.S. embassies are now being tasked to promote American companies and steer government contracts to them, even working to push foreign firms out of infrastructure deals in places like Latin America.
  2. Cloud data centers are being treated as critical infrastructure and a major front in U.S.ā€“China competition, with Chinese cloud providers expanding fast across the Western Hemisphere.
  3. U.S. foreign policy has shifted from pushing democracy to prioritizing pragmatic commercial and strategic goals, so diplomats will focus more on making deals and selling American tech than on regime type or election promotion.

Weekend Update #165: Why the Pantomime?

Phillipsā€™s Newsletter ā€¢ 262 implied HN points ā€¢ 28 Dec 25
šŸŒ World Politics Diplomacy
  1. The US appears to be running a two-track diplomacy by publicly negotiating with Ukraine while privately coordinating with Russia, which can string Ukraine along and give Moscow more time to prosecute the war.
  2. The Anchorage summit has become an informal framework that both the US and Russia cite as the baseline for any deal, and that framework seems to narrow options in ways that pressure Ukraine to concede territory like the Donbas.
  3. Western cruise missiles have proven useful in striking Russian infrastructure, but longerā€‘range systems like Taurus and Tomahawk would be more effective, and withholding them limits Ukraineā€™s ability to hit highā€‘value targets.

Deconstructing Trump's Gaza 'Peace' Plan (w/ Norman Finkelstein) | The Chris Hedges Report

The Chris Hedges Report ā€¢ 149 implied HN points ā€¢ 15 Jan 26
šŸŒ World Politics Diplomacy
  1. The UN resolution effectively erases decades of international law on the occupation and hands governance of Gaza to a new ā€œBoard of Peaceā€ led by Trump, undermining Palestinian claims to self-determination.
  2. The resolutionā€™s conditionsā€”disarmament preconditions, veto power for Israel, and an international stabilization forceā€”make meaningful aid, reconstruction, and Israeli withdrawal unlikely, so humanitarian collapse and forced displacement will continue.
  3. Many states backed the resolution due to geopolitics and pressure, but organized politics, free speech, and grassroots mobilization are presented as the remaining avenues to resist and try to reverse these outcomes.

The Gaza Trap

Uncharted Territories ā€¢ 3164 implied HN points ā€¢ 19 Oct 23
šŸŒ World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Hamas strategically attacks Israel to gain support and maintain power within Gaza.
  2. Gazans support Hamas and armed struggle against Israel, hindering peace talks and stability.
  3. Gaza faces traps caused by its geography, internal politics, and economic dependence, complicating its path to prosperity and peace.

Bishop Ɓlvarez freed in Nicaragua, exiled to Vatican

The Pillar ā€¢ 1906 implied HN points ā€¢ 15 Jan 24
šŸŒ World Politics Diplomacy
  1. The Nicaraguan regime freed Bishop Rolando JosƩ Ɓlvarez and expelled him from the country after he was sentenced to 26 years in prison along with other priests and seminarians.
  2. The release was secured through diplomacy involving Vatican agreements, leading to the deportation of numerous clerics, including Bishop Ɓlvarez and others from various dioceses.
  3. The deportation represents the third major expulsion of Nicaraguan priests within a year, contributing to a significant exodus of priests from the country and potentially challenging the Church's presence in Nicaragua.

February 24, 2026

Letters from an American ā€¢ 28 implied HN points ā€¢ 25 Feb 26
šŸŒ World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Ukraine resisted and adapted instead of collapsing, mobilizing civilians and growing its military while innovating with drones and other technologies to keep fighting.
  2. U.S. policy shifted from strong support and coordinated sanctions under Biden to a more Russia-friendly stance under Trump, which disrupted funding, diplomacy, and aid and helped shift momentum on the battlefield.
  3. The war has reshaped global politics and economies: sanctions and allied support initially weakened Russia, Europe is moving toward greater self-reliance, but the conflict remains unresolved and has caused heavy civilian suffering.

HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: International Relations Has a "Mearsheimer" Problem

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality ā€¢ 169 implied HN points ā€¢ 06 Jan 26
šŸŒ International Diplomacy
  1. Some realist arguments (like Mearsheimer's) treat great-power aggression as inevitable. That way of thinking can shift blame away from leaders and make theoretical predictions sound like excuses for war crimes.
  2. Russiaā€™s behavior is better explained by long-standing internal factorsā€”autocracy, militarism, and leadership choicesā€”rather than primarily by NATO expansion. Putinā€™s domestic politics push adventurism that is often counterproductive.
  3. In the modern world military conquest rarely produces durable control and tends to create lasting enemies. Lasting influence comes more from soft power and economic ties than from tanks and occupation.

Weekend Update #163: Ukraine Goes From Collapsing to Liberating Kupyansk

Phillipsā€™s Newsletter ā€¢ 326 implied HN points ā€¢ 14 Dec 25
šŸŒ World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Ukraineā€™s recent push around Kupyansk shows it isnā€™t collapsing and can still mount quick, effective local counterattacks to blunt Russian advances.
  2. The current U.S. diplomatic approach appears to seek Russiaā€™s reintegration without real penalties and to pressure Ukraine into concessions, creating a lopsided negotiation that favors Moscow.
  3. European reaction is shifting: many leaders are wary of the U.S. posture and the EU has moved to freeze Russian assets, indicating growing independent support for Ukraine.

Operation Epic Fury

Who is Robert Malone ā€¢ 23 implied HN points ā€¢ 28 Feb 26
šŸŒ World Politics Diplomacy
  1. A joint USā€“Israeli military campaign reportedly began with airstrikes on Iran that hit senior regime leaders, and the U.S. president publicly urged Iranians to seize the moment.
  2. Iran launched widespread retaliatory missile and drone strikes against Israel and several Gulf and regional states, causing civilian casualties and prompting strong condemnations.
  3. Deep divisions between Iranā€™s IRGC and its regular military, plus Saudi Arabiaā€™s pledge to back attacked countries, make responsibility for strikes unclear and raise the risk the conflict could escalate beyond the original actors.

To Greenland and Back

Comment is Freed ā€¢ 119 implied HN points ā€¢ 22 Jan 26
šŸŒ World Politics Diplomacy
  1. A negotiated Greenland 'framework' calmed the crisis but left open tough questions about how to keep NATO functioning under the pressures of a disruptive U.S. president.
  2. The push to 'acquire' Greenland looked unnecessary for alliance security and felt driven more by personal motivesā€”treating territory like real estate and anger over a Nobel snubā€”than by clear strategic need.
  3. The core issue is the U.S. president's behavior and whether it signals a permanent rupture in transatlantic ties or simply a shift toward a different, more unpredictable relationship.